TCU or Baylor?

Submitted by superstringer on

What's our impartial consensus -- if there is to be a BigXII team in the playoffs for the national championship trophy that looks like a female body part, should it be TCU or Baylor?

If you saw the news today, the BigXII has decided that it won't name it's conf champion (=Baylor) but will "submit both teams" to the Committee to pick which should go to the playoff.  The BigXII claims it's not the BigXII's business to determine who the BigXII champion is, but the national committee should do that.  Yikes.  BUT, if one team (=TCU) goes to the playoff, then the other team (=Baylor) will then be declared by the conference to be the conference champion, guaranteeing it a spot in another big bowl.  There's a term for this:  trying to have your cake and eat it too.

Anyhoo, I am strongly believing that Baylor deserves to go b/c it beat TCU.  Otherwise it's certainly not recognizing the conference champion (even if the conference won't say those words, yet), and it's really minimizing the impact of the most key evaluation -- head on head.

Sure TCU might have had the better season against common opponents and played a tougher nonconf schedule, BUT, they played a round robin in the conference, so to me, head to head should decide it.

Now, watch K-State klunk Baylor next week and moot the point.

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turd ferguson

December 1st, 2014 at 5:23 PM ^

TCU.  If the TCU-Baylor game had been a lopsided Baylor win - or even a road win at TCU - I might feel differently, but in my mind that win isn't enough for Baylor to overcome TCU's superior performance in the rest of its games.

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funkywolve

December 1st, 2014 at 6:22 PM ^

SMU:  Baylor 45-0, TCU 56-0

Iowa St:  Baylor 49-28 (road), TCU - TBD

Texas:  Baylor 28-7 (road) , TCU 48-10 (road)

West Virginia: Baylor 27-41 (road), TCU 31-30 (road)

Kansas:  Baylor 60-14 (home), TCU 34-30 (road)

Oklahoma:  Baylor 48-14 (road), TCU 37-33 (home)

Oklahoma St: Baylor 49-28 (home), TCU 42-9 (home)

Texas Tech: Baylor 48-46 (home) , TCU 82-27 (home)

KState: Baylor - TBD, TCU 41-20 (home)

 

I don't see a lot of difference there.  Both teams had a couple close calls:  Baylor with Texas Tech and the loss to WVU and TCU with Oklahoma, WVU and Kansas.  Other then that they've pretty much been blowing everyone out.  TCU did play Minnesota in non-conference but at least according to FEI their SOS's is very similiar - TCU 60, Baylor 68.

 

 

 

 

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turd ferguson

December 1st, 2014 at 6:39 PM ^

Thanks for this.

I've been basing my view on this mostly on the gap between them in almost all of the computer rankings (including FEI), but you're right that it's hard to see here.  A win over K-State would obviously help Baylor there more than a win over Iowa State would help TCU, and then I think it's down to what you think about Minnesota.  

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schreibee

December 1st, 2014 at 9:15 PM ^

This topic is premature; until Baylor plays K St you are manufacturing a controversy. If Baylor comes close to dominating them the way TCU did there should be a discussion - and undoubtedly will be by the committee. And THEN if TCU is picked for the playoff and the Big XII starts politicking for Baylor to get a premier bowl on the basis they're a "conference co-champion" we can all call them out for being hypocritical. But you know what - they wouldn't be wrong! Baylor would definitely belong in a major non-playoff game.

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Tuebor

December 1st, 2014 at 5:29 PM ^

Isn't this simply determined by head to head record?

So Baylor, assuming they beat KSU, will be the champion as far as bowl selection goes.

 

Also, just add BYU and Boise St already and play a conference championship game.

 

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mgoblue0970

December 1st, 2014 at 5:35 PM ^

No... the comittee has clearly said that body of work matters.  That's the reason this is even a discussion in the first place.  If it was head to head, Baylor beat TCU and clase closed.

BYU just went independent.  They are not going to join the B12 as long as Texas runs the show.

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Tuebor

December 1st, 2014 at 5:41 PM ^

We are talking about the other team that doesn't make the playoffs.  In this case shouldn't the head to head winner of the two co champions be considered the Big XII champion for bowl selection? 

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tlo2485

December 1st, 2014 at 8:01 PM ^

BYU would love to be in a power 5 conference.. they have a horrible time scheduling anyone with a pulse after week 3 because of the extra conference games in other conferences. I'd add BYU and Cincinnati if I was the big 12.. leaving UConn as the sole loser in realignment

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trueblueintexas

December 1st, 2014 at 5:30 PM ^

Supposedly, the playoff committee will pick the four teams they think are most deserving. If that is the case, I think TCU will be the selection. If there is a strong effort to continue to emphasize the importance of conference championships, then Baylor has to be the selection. Assuming the top teams win out, I think the only garaunteed teams in would be Oregon, FSU, and Alabama. That makes a really interesting fight between Baylor, TCU, and OSU for only one spot. You would have to think OSU would have a leg up if they beat Wisconsin with their third string QB.

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schreibee

December 1st, 2014 at 9:45 PM ^

Honestly I think Bama, FSU are in even if they lose & Oregon may be too. Although...2 wins over Ore just might jump AZ over a bunch of other teams into the playoff? I wanna see RichRod face Dantonio in a bowl. Then we'll know how much better a coach he is in Tucson than A2. For all the talk of our defensive shortcomings under RR, we never scored much against sparty in his time either.

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Brewers Yost

December 1st, 2014 at 5:31 PM ^

I think TCU is better. They choked against Baylor after being in control for most of the game. Those thing happen... Bama LSU and Florida FSU MNC. Hopefully, Georgia tech wins and they both get in.

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ESNY

December 1st, 2014 at 5:31 PM ^

They should be co-champs of the Big 12 if both finish with one loss in conference with Baylor getting any tie breaker for Bowl placement.

For purposes of the CFP, I don't think what the BIG 12 does because it shouldn't factor into the discussion which really should come down to overall resume, both in conference and out of conference, and results of those games. TCU lost to Baylor but beat Minny OOC. Baylor has one more quality win thanks to the TCU game but also has a not very good loss to WVU and no good OOC wins. Baylor has also not looked so great in some of its recent games. Since the committee is looking for more than conf champs, head to head shouldn't be a deciding factor. Otherwise what would the point be in scheduling good OOC games if you just default to in conference results?

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Jolly_Mangina

December 1st, 2014 at 5:41 PM ^

TCU probably has the better resume, but I don't know how you can possibly ignore head to head.  That should be the trump card if there's a tie.

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MI Expat NY

December 1st, 2014 at 6:00 PM ^

I think you can "ignore" head to head if it's a really tight game, especially when the winner was playing on its home field.  Did Baylor's win really show that they would win more than half their games against TCU?

If you say that TCU's and Baylor's resume are nearly identical, then sure, use the head to head result.  If you think TCU's season has been better as a whole, then I don't have a problem not using the head to head result to give the advantage to TCU.  

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beardog07

December 1st, 2014 at 5:43 PM ^

I FEEL that TCU is better, but we have the most meaningfully objective method for determining a champion, records being equal. Both are great teams, but sorry, Baylor won so Baylor should go.

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Vasav

December 1st, 2014 at 5:57 PM ^

I usually claim to "hate" conference title games and divisions and sometimes pontificate about how it's everything wrong with CFB and college sports. I never really minded the old co-champ days. But I'm finding myself incredibly annoyed at the B12 for this. I'd even be okay with them naming them co-champs but saying "since Baylor won the head-to-head, they have NY6 bowl bid if they don't make the CFP." Or if by some other determination you'd rather award TCU with the top spot, whatever. Tie breakers are always messy. But make some rules and stick with them and change them afterwards if everyone's annoyed about it - didn't we learn anything from the good ol' BCS?

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LSAClassOf2000

December 1st, 2014 at 6:02 PM ^

If we go by Massey numbers, TCU is probably going to trounce Iowa State with their estimated 98% win probability. Baylor's game against against Kansas State favors Baylor, but it is far less certain - Baylor's estimated win probability is 63% and the estimated scoring margin after several trials is 4 points in favor of Baylor. The way I see this is that if both of them win, the team that won the head-to-head matchup should be at least considered (I know, strength of schedule, overall performance metrics like scoring margin, etc...also apply). If either loses, the decision is far simpler. 

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ESNY

December 1st, 2014 at 6:22 PM ^

But their season consisted of more than just conference games. If you default to head to head, doesn't that fly in the face of what the CFP is trying to do? If TCU a had a markedly better overall resume, stronger performances in wins, better OOC scheduling and wins, shouldn't they make it despite the head to head loss? I don't know whether they have but I don't think it is, or should be, based solely on head to head.

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gwkrlghl

December 1st, 2014 at 6:05 PM ^

  • Loss to Baylor was aided by a bogus PI call in Baylor's favor late
  • Loss was close and the road. Basically a tie in my book
  • TCU has looked way better. Just look at TCU's wins compared to Baylor's. Not close

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G. Gulo of the Dale

December 1st, 2014 at 9:45 PM ^

I think you were the first to mention this in the thread:  not only did TCU have a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter, and was playing on the road, but Baylor completed their comeback only by virtue of a bad PI call in the closing seconds.  Moreover, on the previous TCU drive, the refs failed to call PI (probably rightly) on more or less the exact same play when TCU would have benefited and so would have been given the chance to put the game away.

In other circumstances, I'd be willing to give Baylor the nod based on their head-to-head win, even if I think TCU would have won on a neutral sight... but not when considering the officiating in that game, along with Baylor's loss to WVU, and the fact that Baylor doesn't otherwise have a better resume in conference, and the fact that Baylor didn't play a quality out-of conference opponent.  TCU did play a quality opponent (Minnesota), and they thrashed them.  I respect the opinions of others but I just really don't see an argument for Baylor, unless something unexpected happens this weekend.   

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B-Nut-GoBlue

December 1st, 2014 at 6:09 PM ^

I have a feeling Kansas St. is going to take care of this converstation for us.

That said, I really like Baylor and have for a few years but TCU for whatever reason I feel should go this year.

But man, how crazy would it be if Iowa St. could do to TCU what they did to Oklahoma St. a few years back?!  (However, this game is at TCU).

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Muttley

December 1st, 2014 at 6:27 PM ^

Baylor scheduled three OOC auto-wins.

Does TCU's 30-7 home Minny* win outweigh Baylor's 3 point home head-to-head win?  I'm leaning toward no, but I wouldn't strongly object to yes.

But that's only if it comes down to Baylor vs TCU.  What if the committee lines up TCU, Ohio State, and Baylor (as ordered presently) and decides TCU > OSU > Baylor?  Then I think you go with TCU.

I personally think that TCU's present spot is really the Big 12 Top Spot, which is likely to change if Baylor beats KSU.

*Minny is presently ranked #34 by Massey.  http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf&sub=FBS

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