The Tale of 3 Mini Seasons revisited.
Been following UM football now going on 33 years, and before the season my prediction was 6-6 or 7-5. The dream being 8-4.
I broke it down into 3 mini seasons:
4 expected wins: BG, UMASS, IU, IU
4 expected losses: PSU, Iowa, UW, OSU
4 coin flips: UC, ND, MSU, PU
So far that’s accurate. Won all 4 expected wins, lost the 2 expected losses so far, and won 2 of 3 coin flips, with the important fourth coming up this weekend at Purdue.
I expected variance to modify which were coin flips or not, but expected it would balance out. Precisely the case. PSU was a preseason expected loss that became a flip, and Illinois went from expected win to a flip. We won one lost one, so variance kept the balance.
However, variance has swung in our favor this year with Purdue going from a preseason flip (2 straight losses, on the road, new stud QB transfer), to the crumbled mess that is Purdue today. Flip no more -a win is expected.
Our O is quickly becoming unstoppable. Illinois was the 14th ranked D? They were destroyed. Denard hits on that Webb interception or that Roundtree across the middle, and that 45 becomes 59 points against the 14th ranked D EVEN WITH SO MANY TURNOVERS. Scary....
Defensively? 65 points and a few wheel routes aside, our D was phenomenal, yes phenomenal, overcoming 5 turnovers.
Jekyll and Hyde now. Will the Iowa/Illinois/UConn D show up vs Purdue? Or will the UMass/Indiana/PSU D show up?
Given how unlikely wins vs Wisc or OSU are, Greg Robinson’s slim job hopes hinge completely on the former rather than the latter, come Saturday vs Purdue.
UM 42 Purdue 33
3-9, 5-7, 7-5 (bowl excluded)… I like the trend analysis. 9-3 will sit fine next year.
November 9th, 2010 at 1:15 PM ^
The biggest thing I want to see next year is serious competition against OSU. I think we should be able to show some offensive production this year, but next year we need a win against MSU and a close one/win against OSU.
Also, I saw some progression on D on Saturday as well, but using phenomenal as an adjective for our D right now is just absurd.
November 9th, 2010 at 1:30 PM ^
This outlook against OSU really enforces my hope to end the streak this year! 2 more years without beating them... might just push me over the edge.
November 9th, 2010 at 1:19 PM ^
Before the season most of us predicted the season would play out exactly as it did. At the time we thought PSU would be nearly impossible and Illinois would be easy. The expected difficulty for those games were very different by the time they ocurred, but they ended up going as we expected at the outset of the season. I thought we would win one of two with ND and MSU. We did. We are right where I thought we would be in wins and losses. (Did not expect the O and D to be so outrageously good and lackluster, respectively.)
This week is big for demonstrating progress and convincing recruits the coaches will stick around. Then we can just hope to steal 1 more win.
November 9th, 2010 at 1:43 PM ^
You've summed this up perfectly. Sometimes it's hard to see the bigger picture when you're in middle of the storm...but retrospectively this season has not been the failure it seemed to be the 3 weeks before the Illinois victory. It's really amazing what a win can do for your outlook. We're so close to being where we need to be. To win 7 games with 1/3 of a team is a truly remarkable accomplishment. And I see us becoming much more complete next year.
November 9th, 2010 at 1:47 PM ^
I'm not quite ready to say our offense is becoming unstoppable. I think it will be next year, but this year it's still been a bit up and down, despite the gaudy overall numbers. In a lot of games we've gone through scoring droughts of 4-5 possessions. Even against Illinois that was the case (though it may have been partly due to the QB change).
November 9th, 2010 at 2:30 PM ^
I'm not sure our defense was phenomenal. Better than before, yes, good at times, but we are still waiting for phenomenal. If we can reach that superlative in 2011, we would be lucky.
November 9th, 2010 at 2:38 PM ^
I expected all of the "coin flips" to be wins, with a ninth victory coming either against an "auto-loss" team or in a bowl. The only thing that has really messed up my "predictions" this year was MSU being a bona fide contender this year. I thought they would be SOS. If they had been, we would be looking at 7-2 right now.
It is strange that, even though most of the people here expected Michigan to win six or seven before the season started, many of those same people are profoundly pissed at getting exactly what they predicted.
Go figure.
November 9th, 2010 at 3:16 PM ^
My expectations were raised after I saw how much Denard had progressed though.
November 9th, 2010 at 4:14 PM ^
to start the season and we most likely get win #7 this Saturday.............we all knew there would be issues with the defense, I just think the volatility has been difficult to handle........worse than expected defense (injuries, etc) and better than expected offense (Denard can throw!).
November 9th, 2010 at 5:41 PM ^
I question whether the offense is really becoming "unstoppable"--expecially when it was stopped pretty well by Iowa, MSU, and PSU for much of those games.
Really, one game against Illinois and you guys are all foaming at the mouth?
Oh yeah, the offense looked great against UMass, Bowling Green, Indiana, and Notre Dame. Wow.
November 9th, 2010 at 6:33 PM ^
Except you know the 522 yards of total offense and 28 points we put up against Iowa despite 4 turnovers and another missed field goal.
Or the 430 yards and 31 points we put up against Penn State despite having the ball for 22 minutes.
How about coughing up 17 points in the red zone against Michigan State?
I think it's fairly obvious at this point the only way to stop this offense is to force us to shoot ourselves in the foot.
November 9th, 2010 at 6:55 PM ^
1st of all, our defense was far from phenomenal against Illinois. Sure, it held them to some field goals when we turned the ball over, but it was still really bad. And second, with how soft the schedule is next year I think I'd be disappointed if we only went 9-3.
November 10th, 2010 at 11:17 AM ^
In relative terms, given we play what 8 freshmen? The D was phenomenal relative to expectations vs Illinois. Further, c'mon bro. You'll be disappointed with 9-3 next year given the current and immediate future state of our defense? I'd be thrilled.
November 10th, 2010 at 1:33 PM ^
The defense gave up 486 total yards & 45 points in regulation. Add on the overtime stats & it's even worse. I understand that we're playing a lot of freshman & asking people to swicth positions seemingly every week. I understand why they're struggling, but my point is that allowing 45 points & 486 yards is not phenomenal under any circumstances. & yeah, with the way our offense looks, improvement you'd have to assume we'll make on defense, and the softest schedule I've seen Michigan play in a long time, I'd be a little disappointed with a 9-3 record next year.
November 10th, 2010 at 2:49 PM ^
The fact that they managed not to lose the game while the offense fluctuated doesn't fit into any realm of 'phenomenal.' They did their jobs basically to the minimum requirement, and it was good enough to win. They played their part, but phenomenal is TCU beating the snot out of Utah. Considering we get Ohio State and Nebraska at home and nobody out of conference, 9-3 assumes we lose one we probably shouldn't (provided the defense becomes one oover the course of the off season), so I'd say that should be the moderate prediction. That being said, I would be thrilled too.