Been following UM football now going on 33 years, and before the season my prediction was 6-6 or 7-5. The dream being 8-4.
I broke it down into 3 mini seasons:
4 expected wins: BG, UMASS, IU, IU
4 expected losses: PSU, Iowa, UW, OSU
4 coin flips: UC, ND, MSU, PU
So far that’s accurate. Won all 4 expected wins, lost the 2 expected losses so far, and won 2 of 3 coin flips, with the important fourth coming up this weekend at Purdue.
I expected variance to modify which were coin flips or not, but expected it would balance out. Precisely the case. PSU was a preseason expected loss that became a flip, and Illinois went from expected win to a flip. We won one lost one, so variance kept the balance.
However, variance has swung in our favor this year with Purdue going from a preseason flip (2 straight losses, on the road, new stud QB transfer), to the crumbled mess that is Purdue today. Flip no more -a win is expected.
Our O is quickly becoming unstoppable. Illinois was the 14th ranked D? They were destroyed. Denard hits on that Webb interception or that Roundtree across the middle, and that 45 becomes 59 points against the 14th ranked D EVEN WITH SO MANY TURNOVERS. Scary....
Defensively? 65 points and a few wheel routes aside, our D was phenomenal, yes phenomenal, overcoming 5 turnovers.
Jekyll and Hyde now. Will the Iowa/Illinois/UConn D show up vs Purdue? Or will the UMass/Indiana/PSU D show up?
Given how unlikely wins vs Wisc or OSU are, Greg Robinson’s slim job hopes hinge completely on the former rather than the latter, come Saturday vs Purdue.
UM 42 Purdue 33
3-9, 5-7, 7-5 (bowl excluded)… I like the trend analysis. 9-3 will sit fine next year.