Supposedly Notre Dame is on the clock
Article is behind paywall. Basically it says that Notre Dame is on a similar time frame as Nebraska and Missouri to let the Big ten know whether it wants to join. If they join, Big Ten expansion stops at 12 teams.
on a cheaper clock than M in their locker room. I hear it's a Walmart special that needs two double A batteries.
They must've upgraded!
...or shup up time for Father Jenkins and Jack Swarbrick.
I wonder if their first response to being on the clock was "Holy Shit!"
...but I'm guessing that if Notre Dame is really on the clock, the powers that be are calculating what it really means to be part of the Big Ten and the CIC.
Look what Father Jenkins' bio says about expanding Notre Dame's research credentials:
At Father Jenkins’ inauguration on September 23, 2005, he stated, “My presidency will be driven by a wholehearted commitment to uniting and integrating these two indispensable and wholly compatible strands of higher learning: academic excellence and religious faith.”
More specifically, Father Jenkins has articulated a vision for the University that focuses on its being a pre-eminent research institution while maintaining its distinctive Catholic character and long-time excellence in undergraduate education.
During his first four years in office, Notre Dame has made significant progress toward its research goal, including selection as the lead university partner in the Midwest Institute for Nanoelectronics Discovery; the creation of Innovation Park, a tech park located adjacent to the campus; the distribution of $40 million in internal funds for five major faculty research initiatives (with another $40 million designated for five more projects); designation of the University’s environmental research center in Wisconsin as a National Ecological Observatory Network by the National Science Foundation; and the construction of Stinson-Remick Hall of Engineering, a 142,000-square-foot facility housing a nanotechnology research center, the University’s new Energy Center, a semiconductor processing and device fabrication clean room, and an undergraduate interdisciplinary learning center.
It's been said before, but the real money is not the money that will accrue to the new Big Ten members' athletic departments, it's the money that will accrue to the new CIC members' researchers.
The questions Notre Dame must answer for itself:
- What is the real value of your vaunted independence?
- Are you really still feeling the sting of Fiedling Yost's 108 year old snub?
I have to think that with the seemingly inevitable shifting of the NCAA landscape, Notre Dame has to be really thinking hard about joining the Big Ten. How many other conferences will be willing to cap their expansion plans to appease them? Also, this may be their last chance to join the Big Ten. I'm guessing the Big Ten will have no problem finding expansion partners in the even that Notre Dame once again rejects them.
Back the last time ND said no to the Big 10 their faculty voted to recommend joining just b/c of the Big 10's library sharing agreements.
From the ND side of things, I am almost positive those calculations were already completed a good time ago. The results probably initiated the latest, "we are happy being independent" from, coach Kelly and Swarbrick. Unless something drastic has changed in the past week or two, I doubt the answer has changed
lol, I have a hard time believing it myself. If the bigten is offering ND first for expansion and will only expand to 12 teams with them, then they must be bringing a seriously amazing deal, or they're just stupid.
The decision to join a conference on ND's end pivots on whether the expansion changes the college football landscape. Adding one team does not do that. If the big ten's only leverage boils down to sending out new offers then they have no leverage at all in getting ND to join. Now if the big ten already has agreements with multiple schools to join and it all comes down to ND's decision then they have a little something to apply pressure with. I don't see anything new that makes me think ND's stance on independence has changed, if the big ten wants ND then they need to add 3-4, or whatever, teams.
I think you are playing checkers when you should be playing chess. Assuming ND is being honest and would always prefer to remain independent short of massive realignment to their detriment, and assuming that they believe the B10 when it tells them they will go to 16 teams if ND does not join (with the invitees being NU, MO and three Big East teams), ND should understand that refusing to join the B10 will cause massive realignment and leave ND exactly where they do not want to be. And further assuming ND would much prefer the B10 to have only 12 teams instead of 16 in the event it is ultimately forced to join (this is what I have read, so maybe it is or is not true), then the only way to get there is to be the first team to join even if it results in quashing (or more likely delaying) massive realignment. If ND waits until massive realignment happens and finally joins only as the 16th team, that is the worst possible result for them. Unless ND has some other trick up its sleeve or believes the B10 or B12/P10 are bluffing, joining the B10 as the 12th team is the best outcome they can achieve.
Additionally, what if the B10 schools stop scheduling ND? This is kind of relevant for ND, which has played, since 2002, Purdue, MSU, and UM each year, and PSU in 04 and 05. Who would replace those teams?
I hear this argument all the time, I just think it would backfire big time. For the same reason the we like to play ND so does everyone else. ND will be able to replace three B10 teams with three comparable teams from other conferences, even if they have to rotate the teams. Moreover, when those games are played as B10 home games, the ratings accrue to the B10 TV contracts. I am sure those games are among the highest ratings games of the season for each B10 team and that is factored into the amount of money we receive from ABC / ESPN. Michigan probably could schedule someone with close to the national appeal of ND every year as a replacememt if they wanted to (e.g., TX, FL, Miami, Alabama, Georgia, UCLA), but I doubt Purdue and Michigan State could. Like it or not, we benefit from playing ND just as much as they benefit from playing us.
<i> ND will be able to replace three B10 teams with three comparable teams from other conferences</i>
No such thing. Comparable to M. What were you thinking, man?
Why would they stop? Three teams from the big ten sell out their stadiums every time ND comes to town, the big ten gets a share of each of those games, The big ten's expansion is fueled by the potential for more revenue and they know that every one of ND's home games would sell out, and every conference game they went to would sell out, they want that money.
If ND is to join, I wouldn't be surprised to see their first conference schedule made up of only teams with the biggest stadiums.
Also playing Wisconsin in 2012 now
UM and MSU sell out regardless, not sure about Purdue. The incremental gate revenue ND *MIGHT* add is not really a lot of coin.
UM attendance varied between 106-110,000 I guess I don't know at which time UM is sold out.
MSU was 71-78,000 and purdue was 47-57,000.
Last year ND was Purdue's biggest home game and was UM's 3rd biggest behind OSU and PSU by only about 450 people, about the same for MSU when we play there. I think thats around 10,000 person difference over 3 games between their average attendance and when ND comes to town.
You realize tickets sold vs butts in seats are different right?
yeah but I don't have tickets sold, only butts in seats
This is not about putting a few more butts in seats. This is about TV ratings and getting cable providers to put BTN on basic/expanded basic and getting the highest fee per TV Household.
The ND games (when played as B10 home games) are likely some of the most valuable games B10 brings to the table in those negotiations. If you use attendance as a proxy, per Irish's figures, only the OSU and PSU games were more valuable last year. Those games either get picked up by ABC/ESPN or are among the best games shown on BTN. Even when the games are played as ND home games, they are nationally televised, generating great exposure for the B10 teams and enhancing their brands. The B10 would be idiots to drop ND just out of spite or in some sort of pissing contest.
that is a very good point
I don't think you can assume it will automatically become a 16 team conference if ND turns down the big ten. There is no guarantee that the invited teams will agree to the big ten's final terms. They may actually end up adding only 1 or 2 teams in the end.
But if that is ND's strategy, to assume the B10 and B12/P10 are either bluffing or will stop short of 16 teams because they cannot get the teams they invite to agree to final terms, that is one heck of a risk to take with the franchise. It is like playing texas held 'em and going all-in because you think the other guys are bluffing or do not know how to read cards.
I don't think bluffing is the right word, just that it isn't a forgone conclusion that the bigten becomes a super conference if ND doesn't join. IMO the more teams the bigten adds the more likely ND is one of them but there are a ton of ways this could all play out. For all any of us know ND could be in talks to replace Nebraska in the big12 this weekend.
... yet. I know there have been rumors, but I don't believe them. B10 will wait until the last possible moment hoping to get ND. It is possible that Friday is the deadline, because I think NU is the next choice after ND and NU clearly has to make some sort of move by Friday. This is a big game of "chicken" right now. ND really needs to decide how much it matters whether B10 is 12 teams or 16 teams. If they are ok with 16 teams, they probably have more time because I am guessing B10 will pause at 12 post-NU to see what happens with B12/P10. Then, again, maybe they won't. If they want their first pick of the Big East teams, they don't want to caught sitting on their hands only to watch ACC or SEC pick a couple off.
Also, the B10 will go to at least 14 and possibly 16 teams without ND. They would much rather stay at 12 (just like ND). Do you think they really want Rutgers? But, without ND, they need more than one team to make a strong push in the Northeast. Michigan and PSU have a good Northeast presence, but that is not enough. Add ND and maybe BTN has enough. Without ND, they need as many "national" names as possible and some schools closer to NYC. So, if ND is a "no go', B10 takes at least NU and two Big East teams, my guess being Rutgers and Syracuse. It is possible one of those gets swapped out for MO, because St. Louis and Kansas City are in and of themselves valuable, but frankly so is the entire state of New Jersey (population nearly 9 million). And this is how you end up at 16. If B10 decides to take both Rutgers and MO, they probaby go for one more rather than stop at 15. Again, maybe they stop at 15 in a nod to ND thinking that eventually ND will come to their senses. But, at that point, the best ND can do is join B10 as the 16th team. Now, wouldn't it just be easier and smarter for everyone if ND was able to figure this all out now, explain it to the alumni and joins the B10 as team number 12? I know it would save me from banging my head against the wall another couple hundred times while we go the long route.
The best, most logical post I've seen on the topic to date.
One thousand cocktails to you sir.
Pretty sure that is the first time anyone has ever said anything positive to me on here. Usually I just get ass-slapped for not including OT or something similar. Thanks.
A +1 is saying something positive. I'm assuming you have had several of those considering your point total.
If I were Missouri, I'd be concerned right now. They're on the same timeline as Nebraska, and they don't seem to be close to getting offered.
They're the only Tier-2 school under consideration...
How do you define Tier 1 and Tier 2? I asked this yesterday in another thread because this has been said several times. From what I can tell, Nebraska and Missouri are in the same boat academically.
Tier-2 the way I understand it starts around 90. I think the Big Ten is willing to cut Nebraska some slack because of their national appeal. But I don't think they're willing to take two schools that would be the considerably lowest ranked.
Think about it if you are ND. ND is aligned with the big east already in basketball and other applicable sports, the only sport that is in for a drastic change to a conference is Football. ND already has every home football game on national TV, and every away game on basic cable at the worst, as you know. They control their scheduling, their merchandising, they control every aspect of the Notre Dame "Brand" and image. And through the big east agreements have the same bowl buy-ins and a BCS autobid.
The bigten is offering what should be expanded money through revenue sharing (though I wonder how long it would take to payoff the buy-in required to join the bigten network), a network which might provide the same coverage they already have in the future. They lose the majority of their scheduling control. Their merchandising and image is no longer their own, they become a part of the bigten, or whatever it is called after this. The bowl situation doesn't become more positive and if anything could be worse with more teams and the same number of bowl games.
The positives appear to be higher football revenue, and expanded research funding and the total of which isn't apparently enough to change ND's independence. It may make sense for the bigten to add ND but ND isn't getting anything they don't already have. Now if something from the above list is threatened by the expansion, namely the bowl buy-ins and bcs autobid, then the bigten will be offering something ND can no longer get on its own.
They would have an enormous amount of catching up to do. The research arms race is detailed here http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/nsf10311/content.cfm?pub_id=3944&id=2
Table 31 is the summary of all schools, ranked by research. The numbers are 2 years old, but rankings don't change that quickly.
The lowest-ranked B10 school, Iowa, is at #63. It has over three times the funding of ND, #133. It's not all about size, either. Northwestern has 450% more funding than ND.
To be fair, ND is a more undergraduate-focused university.
...exactly the point I was making. If ND is really serious about expanding it's research efforts, CIC membership is what it means. That's where the real money is.
As much as they value their football independence, they value their institutional identity as a Catholic institution that much greater. The question may really be whether or not ND is comfortable establishing formal research relationships with schools that conduct research that may be inimical with church teachings. That's not a shot in their direction, BTW.
Ultimately, if they don't join, that's what really will have scuttled this whole thing, IME.
Not sure how they determine those numbers but I know Western's numbers aren't that low. (after speaking with some of their professors)
Don't forget that these are per year numbers. Awards are usually 2-5 years, so even if a researcher talks about their $30M grant it may only count $6M toward this ranking.
I work in research, and this is THE list. It's a shame that it is delayed, but you can extrapolate fairly easily. VT has jacked up their $$ 20% over the last two years, but is still stuck at almost the same rank according to preliminary reports. It really is an arms race.
The Recovery Act pumped more money into NSF/NIH than they've had in a decade, so things are actually much better in research than in areas supported by state budgets.
I will take your word for it then, interesting to say the least
One of the reasons the B10 is so far ahead is the CIC. The schools bid for federal grants together and share the spoils. Iowa is more successful at getting grant money because it submits shared proposals in combination with schools like U of M, Wisky, PSU and Northwestern. This makes the proposals far more powerful (each school brings unique strengths and resources) and spreads the benefit of the dollars politically. ND has been making a push over the past 10 years to get into the big leagues on research, but they started from a small base and as a single entity (even a good one) they are at a huge disadvantage versus CIC. Ironically, if they joined B10, they would be part of CIC and likely see tens if not hundreds of millions of extra research dollars per year. This is why ND's professors are in support of the move.
FWIW, U of M recently acquired some former Pfizer facilities and is converting them into a new research center (NCRC). The goal is to more than double their research numbers to approximately $2 billion over the next 7 years.
http://www.annarbor.com/business-review/mary-sue-coleman-university-of-…
"Holy Shite!"
They're Irish, you know.
I need to remember "shite" and fight should rhyme at ND!
I've been channeling with Bo in football valhalla, Bo says ND can go and should go to hell
Hail Mary's after a TD aren't enough!
Dude, let some people's jokes stand on their own. They don't all need an upgrade.
Point Taken
If they say no, what then? Is Nebraska next up, or do we move into multi-expansion mode?
The guy at Orangeblood.com is saying that ND doesn't want to be left out of the 4 16-team superconferences, if they do happen. So they might be jumping on the bandwagon. Personally, I think there is a lot of smoke and some fire, but when this all settles down, I don't know if there is going to be that much changed. That said, I also believe that there is going to be phases of this - in five years? Superconferences. But not all at once.
It'll happen a little at a time. But it does seem as though the Big Ten and Pac-10 really want to jumpstart the expansion craze. I'm guessing that whatever the Big Ten does in the next year or so will be all it does.
if ND says no, then it is Superconference time. I don't know if that means Nebraska, Missouri, Texas.....all the rumored suspects. But it sounds like if the Big Ten can't get ND, things will get very crazy expansion-wise.