Superior Punting Statistics

Submitted by EGD on

Magnus mentioned this issue in profiling Matt Wile today in his TTB countdown and I seem to recall this issue coming up recently on a front-page post here as well: punting averages don't give you much meaningful information about a punter's performance because they are skewed by pooch kicks and other short-field situations.  So, I was wondering whether there might be a more sophisticated way of measuring punting performance.

I was originally just going to ask, “hey, can anybody suggest a better way of evaluating punting stats?” and see what suggestions arose.  But before doing that, I figured I might as well run a quick Google search and see if anything good came up.  Not surprisingly, I found something.  On a page called “Iggles Blog,” a guy came up with the following method:

Yline= Line of scrimmage for the punting team.  Number 1-99 (theoretically) from the own goal line.

Punt= Punt distance

Return= Return distance

Result= Yline + Punt - Return

Optimal Result= "IF (Yline < 40 , Yline + 50 , 90)."  In English, if the line of scrimmage was between the 1 and 39 yard lines, I made the optimal result a 50-yard net punt.  If it was on the 40-yard line or beyond, I called the optimal result a change of possession on the 10-yard line.  There are opportunities for further refinement here, but…

Difference = Actual result - Optimal result.

To calculate this statistic, you need to know (i) the yard line from which each punt was taken, (ii) the gross distance of the punt, and (iii) the distance of any return.  I am pretty sure items (ii) and (iii) are available, but I am not sure anyone keeps track of (i) (I did a quick Google search for that too, but came up empty).  But if the data necessary to calculate this statistic is (or becomes) available, this seems like a much more useful way of comparing punters--though perhaps not as useful as comparing the number of star systems under their control.

RioThaN

August 14th, 2013 at 8:37 PM ^

I think hangtime and distance in the air should suffice, (like 40 times to measure speed), and consistency -no shanked punts-. Sometimes the punt is booming and still the return is great, sometimes the coverage fails and some others the returner is just good, sometimes the ball bounces and rolls 20 yards, in either direction.

DonAZ

August 14th, 2013 at 9:20 PM ^

The ideal punt, regardless of the field position, is to pin the opposing team back on their own 1/2 yard line.  Find a punter that can do that consistently and he'd be a hero.

if the line of scrimmage was between the 1 and 39 yard lines, I made the optimal result a 50-yard net punt.

I'm not sure I'm following that logic.  Imagine the line of scrimmage being my own 1 yard line.  Why would 50 net be "optimal?"  Wouldn't something longer -- perhaps a punt that goes over the head of the returners -- even more optimal?  I suspect there's some mixing of the terms optimal and realistic going on there ... that is, "In the real world if I could achieve 50 net under those circumstances nearly every time, that would be wonderful."

It strikes me a better formula would seek to compute the net punt as a proportion of the total field to the other goal line.  That would take into account both long and short field situations.  In both cases I'm looking to chew up as much of the total yards as I can.  So nominal yardage may not be the best measure ... average percent of total field distance attained might be better?

EGD

August 14th, 2013 at 11:23 PM ^

"Optimal" is probably a poor word choice because pinning the opponent inside the 1 yard line will always be the best result no matter where on the field the punt comes from.  I think what the Iggles guy was trying to account for, though, is that beyond a certain range it really isn't possible to consistently pin teams that deep. So if you are just measuring distance from the 1-yard line, the guy who has a bunch of kicks from his own 20 is automatically going to look worse than the guy kicking from his 35.  I think treating a 50-yard net as "optimal" when the punter is too far out to realistically pin the opponent deep is an attempt to normalize for that. 

Using a percentage approach is going to have some of the same problems.  For instance, if you're kicking from your own 25, then there are 75 yards to the goal line--a 50-yard net is going to get you 66.7%.  But the same punt from your own 10 gets you 55.6% of the yards--so your score is lower, even though it's just as good a punt (IMO).  in fact, even just a 30-yard punt from the 50 would score higher under a percentage method (60%), and that doesn't seem to pass the eye test.  

Baldbill

August 15th, 2013 at 8:07 AM ^

I think you are right, but I aprreciate that DonAZ is trying to think up a way to better statistically represent a good punt or bad. Punting is very situational and has many variables, perhaps this is why a simple measure of distance is valid. It may not take into account all things but it is easy enough to calculate and to understand.

DonAZ

August 15th, 2013 at 11:30 AM ^

EGD was right about the simple percentage of field length measure favoring short field punts over long field punts.  I hadn't thought that through. 

Punting is very situational and has many variables, perhaps this is why a simple measure of distance is valid

I think that's right ... the challenge is factoring into the equation the situational specifics.

Perhaps a subjective scoring system like gymnastics?  Style points and all that?  I'm joking.

Ultimately the goal of punting is to put your opponent in the worst possible field position.  In general that means the longer the net punt the better.  Hence settling on the simple distance metric, despite the shortcomings of that measure that crop up due to pooch punts and such.

At the end of the day the desired punter is one who can boom punts that hang a long time and go a long way downfield.  Having superior control to place the punt exactly where intended is icing on the cake.

EGD

August 15th, 2013 at 1:31 PM ^

Actually, I kind of like the subjective scoring idea.  You could have everybody in the student section hold up score cards, and the special teams coaches could greet the punters with  bouquets of roses when they come off the field...