Studying the Elite 8 - Semi OT

Submitted by Steves_Wolverines on

This idea was just something I wanted to look up and share with the board. 

I wanted to see how teams fared in the NCAAT the season after they made the Elite 8. I started with how the teams from the Elite 8 in 2010 did in the 2011 NCAAT. So here it goes:

How the 2010 Elite 8 teams fared in the 2011 NCAAT:

Michigan State: Lost in Round of 64

Tennessee: Lost in Round of 64

Butler: Lost in Championship Game

Kansas St: Lost in Round of 32

Kentucky: Lost in Final 4

West Virginia: Lost in Round of 32

Duke: Lost in Sweet 16

Baylor: n/a

How the 2011 Elite 8 teams fared in the 2012 NCAAT:

Kentucky: Won the NCAAT

North Carolina: Lost in the Elite 8

Arizona: n/a

UCONN: n/a

Kansas: Lost in Championship Game

VCU: Lost in Round of 32

Butler: n/a

Florida: Lost in the Elite 8

How the 2012 Elite 8 teams fared in the 2013 NCAAT:

Kentucky: n/a

Baylor: n/a

Louisville: Won the NCAAT

Florida: Lost in the Elite 8

Syracuse: Lost in the Final 4

Ohio State: Lost in the Elite 8

North Carolina: Lost in the Round of 32

Kansas: Lost in the Sweet 16

In total, we have:

24 total teams. Of the 24, 6 did not make it or were ineligible for the NCAAT. 6 did not make it past the first weekend (out of the round of 32). 2 were bounced in the Sweet Sixteen, 4 in the Elite Eight, 2 in the Final Four, and 4 made the Championship game, with 2 winning it all. 

12/24 either did not make the NCAAT or were bounced in the first weekend.

14/24 did not make it back to the Elite Eight

How the Elite 8 teams from 2013 are faring in 2014:

#1 Florida: 29-2

#2 Wichita St: 34-0

#5 Louisville: 26-5

#7 Duke: 24-7

#8 Michigan: 23-7

#11 Syracuse: 27-4

#24 Ohio St: 23-8

NR Marquette: 17-14

 

Projected Seeds (from Lunardi): 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, n/a

 

Outlook for the 2014 NCAAT: There is a very good chance that we could see more than half these teams return to the Elite 8. We can eliminate Marquette. Of the remaining 7, OSU would be the other team to write off.

Of the remaining 6, 5 have shown that they are capable of competing at a high level against tough competition. If I were to make a predicition, I would say that 5 of these 8 will make the Elite 8 this year. And judging from the projected seeds, this seems very  possible. 

Steves_Wolverines

March 11th, 2014 at 10:31 PM ^

I'm sorry if this came off as confusing or meaningless.

I guess a more worthwhile discussion thread would have been to ask:

Which team that made the Elite 8 last year has the best team to make a National Title run? 

I was interested because it seemed like the Elite 8 from last year were some of the stronger teams again this year; which is probably not always the case. 

LSAClassOf2000

March 11th, 2014 at 10:46 PM ^

In the full knowledge that there are, at this point, too many possible outcomes to say that the odds are overwhelming, I am pretty confident that, if we confine this to last year's Elite Eight, it might be about a 1 in 4 chance of the best run being either Florida, Louisville or Michigan. Simply by the numbers, of course - ir is entirely possible that none survive to that point in different scenarios. That's merely based on some statistics and a lot of conjecture right now. 

mGrowOld

March 11th, 2014 at 10:52 PM ^

That's an interesting question.  I'm not sure you can do a predictive model however because the biggest variable - number of returning players - gets wiped out as a factor of importance if the incoming replacement players are as good or better as those that left.  With the advent of early departures I think the days of dynasty's are essentially over so every year stands basically alone with the coach being the one constant.

Look at us last year.  Dominant players were Burke, Hardaway & McGary - none of which are contributing anything this year.  We almost completely re-tooled and who knows how far we'll go.

You put a lot of work (obviously) into your post.  I was just teasing cause it confused me - not because it was meaningless.