Strength of Schedule

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November 30th, 2010 at 10:40 PM
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Ziff72
Joined: 07/07/2008
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Strength of Schedule

All this Stanford talk has taken me into internet link tangent.  I was just curious if anyone who has looked at this closely can help me understand how these things are possible.

Someone mentioned that Stanford had only played 1 team currently ranked(Oregon).  I thought that was interesting to see how really good they were.  Then I click to a different link and see that they played the 8th hardest schedule according to Sagarin.   

So you played the #1 ranked team,  the Pac 10 is admittedly terrible this year and your hardest out of conference game was the Michigan staple 6-6 Notre Dame and that gets you the 8th hardest schedule in the country?  Alabama 15th hardest schedule would like a word.

This lead me to notice the Pac 10 is considered the best conference this year.  Huh?

So this lead to me to a few questions for the statistically inclined.

Since the PAC 10 did horribly in non conference with few marquee wins how did Sagarin get them to be the hardest conference?  

Did the fact that most of the PAC 10 beat each other up besides Oregon and Stanford lead to a better conference rating?  I guess playing more mediocre teams than playing 1 or 2 real hard teams  and a tomato can makes for a harder SOS which I don't believe.

Is there a more respected strength of schedule rating than Sagarin or is that the accepted standard, because it seems pretty out of whack.

Thanks.

 

 

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November 30th, 2010 at 10:43 PM | Arizona would like to have a (Score:1)
tpilews
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Arizona would like to have a word with you.

December 1st, 2010 at 12:30 AM | 7-4 Arizona? (Score:1)
lilpenny1316
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The team who narrowly beat a 7-5 Iowa team?  The team who lost to 5-6 Oregon State?  They beat Toledo and The Citadel in their other non conference games, so that word must be a pretty hollow one.

December 1st, 2010 at 1:02 AM | I believe Iowa is a good team (Score:1)
TNWolverine
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I believe Iowa is a good team still. That doesn't mean Arizona is not good. Hell, Arizona State played Wisconsin at home and almost beat them, but Wisconsin is one of the hottest teams right now.

"Only fat people wear hawaiian shirts in Tennessee" -co worker

December 1st, 2010 at 11:11 AM | Average teams go 7-4 or 7-5 (Score:1)
lilpenny1316
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Arizona is just an average team, a flawed squad with talented players.

Iowa is either an unlucky or just not good enough version of the 2009 team.  A lot of people looked at that team and figured that if all of their opponents improve from '09, then their record would not be 11-1 or 10-2 again. 

And Arizona St. completely fell off the grid.  Wisky struggled with other teams early in the season as well, so how much of that game was just Wisky not finding their identity and playmakers yet? 

November 30th, 2010 at 10:44 PM | Maybe part of it. (Score:1)
Mitch Cumstein
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You somewhat indirectly mentioned this, but the PAC10 has an extra conference game.  I think that gives them a SOS boost and hurts their records (the conference goes.500 in that extra game, where against a cupcake they would go over .500). 

"A flute with no holes is not a flute. A donut with no hole is a danish"

November 30th, 2010 at 10:45 PM | I don't think the Pac 10 is weak (Score:1)
Vasav
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It's really hard to compare conferences, I don't know his formula, blah blah

But the Pac 10 looks a bit worse because A) They've got two top 5 teams who've beaten the crap out of the rest of the conference and B) They play 9 conference games, as opposed to the almost universal 8 (excepting the Big East)

Out of conference, ASU - who finished 5th or 6th in the league - lost to Wiscy by 1 - @ Camp Randall. Arizona beat Iowa, and Oregon State lost to 2 of the best mid majors around. Other than that I can't remember anything remarkable about their OOC games, but that doesn't seem too shabby to me.

Personally, I think the B10, B12, SEC and Pac10 are all very even this year.

November 30th, 2010 at 10:59 PM | The Pac10 certainly isn't weak. (Score:1)
bighouseinmate
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But I don't think they are close to the SEC or B10 or even B12 in terms of overall quality.

Washington was beat by BYU and destroyed by Nebraska

WashingtonSt. was beat by SMU and destroyed by OkSt.

OregonSt. - Yes they lost to TCU and BoiseSt., but they also barely won against Louisville at home.

USC was nearly beat by Minny(I watched that game), and lost to ND(not really all that good).

In short, the P10 has one really good team, one pretty good team, a few average teams and the rest kinda suck.

November 30th, 2010 at 11:06 PM | Meh. (Score:1)
clarkiefromcanada
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Outside of Oregon the Pac 10 is a collection of middling teams and abject garbage.

If the haters don't hate you then you're doing something wrong. - David Cone

November 30th, 2010 at 11:08 PM | Arizona is legit (Score:1)
Vasav
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After our top 3 - Penn State got owned by Bama, Iowa LOST to Minny, neither us, NW nor Illinois impressed in the OOC, and the other 3 are IU, Purdue, and Minnesota.

I think Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona are as good as our top 3.  USC, Oregon State, UW, Arizona State, Cal and UCLA are all about as good as our middle class in my opinion, give or take here and there. The only team that's as hopeless as Minnesota is Washington State.

I still think they're about as good as we are - and I think we could be the best conference in the country. I think the Pac 10 could be too.

December 1st, 2010 at 12:35 AM | What's with all the Arizona love? (Score:1)
lilpenny1316
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I understand they currently have the third best overall record in the conference, but they lost four conference games.  Our top three teams lost three games overall combined.  Oregon and Stanford are having special years but that conference is the Big 2 and Little 8 this year.

November 30th, 2010 at 10:52 PM | F Standford and the Pac 10 (Score:1)
yostlovesme
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F Standford and the Pac 10

November 30th, 2010 at 10:58 PM | Sagarin has 5 pac10 teams in (Score:1)
Irish
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Sagarin has 5 pac10 teams in his top30, so half the conference is in the top 12%ish of his rankings.  Every Pac10 team still play every other pac10 team so all of their schedules will have a high strength rating according to that computer system.  Its not that surprising 

btw ND is 7-5

Current Smug rating: "lethal"

November 30th, 2010 at 11:03 PM | Are ND fans (Score:1)
Mitch Cumstein
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still calling for Kelly's head?  I mean, he is literally 2 plays away from 9 wins in his first season.  I don't really think you guys have much to complain about on the field.

"A flute with no holes is not a flute. A donut with no hole is a danish"

November 30th, 2010 at 11:12 PM | there is always something to (Score:1)
Irish
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there is always something to complain about for ND fans.  The chatter right now is about 99% positive on how the recruiting class will finish out and what bowl game/opponent is most likely.  Pretty much the polar opposite of this time last year

I haven't done much complaining this year, do you want your team to win more than 7 games no matter the circumstances, of course.  But you have to set your expectations relative to the reality of the football team and those around it.  More than content at this point

Current Smug rating: "lethal"

December 1st, 2010 at 3:40 AM | 7-5 but eh....wouldnt mind (Score:1)
Rico616
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7-5 but eh....wouldnt mind having ND's schedule.

December 1st, 2010 at 6:29 AM | you mean you want a stronger (Score:1)
Irish
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you mean you want a stronger schedule than you already had this year?  Haven't heard that one in a while

Current Smug rating: "lethal"

November 30th, 2010 at 11:04 PM | FWIW (Score:1)
Muttley
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PAC-10 OOC Games of (IME) Significance

11-0 Oregon beat 6-6 Tennessee 42-13
11-1 Stanford beat 7-5 ND 37-14
7-4 Arizona beat 7-5 Iowa 35-28
7-5 USC won all it's cupcakes
5-6 OregonSt lost to TCU 30-21, lost to Boise 37-24, & beat Louisville 35-28
5-6 Wash lost to 6-6 BYU 23-17, lost to Nebr 56-21, beat Syrac 41-20
5-6 ASU lost to Wiscy 20-19 (on missed XP!)
5-7 Cal lost to 11-1 Nevada 52-31, beat 5-7 Colorado 52-7
2-9 WashSt lost to OklaSt 65-17 & lost to SMU 35-21

November 30th, 2010 at 11:08 PM | I love that (Score:1)
Mitch Cumstein
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beating texas is no longer significant.  Suck it Texas.  How does your "Michigan 2008" season feel?

"A flute with no holes is not a flute. A donut with no hole is a danish"

December 1st, 2010 at 3:16 AM | Last time I checked Texas (Score:1)
MGoDC
Joined: 03/21/2010
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Last time I checked Texas didn't finish 3-9.

December 1st, 2010 at 11:02 AM | Suck it Texas.  How does your (Score:1)
zebbielm12
Joined: 09/28/2010
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Suck it Texas.  How does your "Michigan 2009" season feel?

November 30th, 2010 at 11:11 PM | UCLA beat Texas (Score:1)
Bosch
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as did everyone else.

All right Lemmings. Bring the heat.

November 30th, 2010 at 11:32 PM | How is strength of schedule (Score:1)
gbdub
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How is strength of schedule calculated anyway? Does Sagarin just average the Sagarin rating of all of a team's opponents?

I suspect the extra conference game really drives up SOS, maybe unfairly (is it REALLY that much harder to beat WSU than a decent 1AA squad?)

November 30th, 2010 at 11:38 PM | This is the age old question (Score:1)
Mitch Cumstein
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People get really mad about RPI rankings in basketball.  Is it harder to play 2 .500 teams, or 1 undefeated team and one winless team?  The RPI treats them the same.  I think it probably depends how good you are.

"A flute with no holes is not a flute. A donut with no hole is a danish"

December 1st, 2010 at 12:14 AM | Strangely, I was thinking (Score:1)
gbdub
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Strangely, I was thinking about that problem exactly on the drive home from work today, only to come across this thread.

As an example, consider two 10/11th ranked teams, each playing two games - team A plays the #1 rated team and the #80 team, while team B plays the #40 and #41. Same average rank, but team A gets one easy win and one likely loss, while team B gets two games that are theoretically harder than the game against team #80, but still likely to be straightforward wins. This effect is especially pronounced when you throw in FCS teams with rankings like Austin Peay at #221 in this week's Sagarin - is that game really "twice as easy" as a game against #111 North Dakota State (assuming you are not Minnesota)?

There's also the weirdness whereby you're punished for being the best team in your conference, since you by default have a weaker SOS.

December 1st, 2010 at 12:16 AM | TCU - what would Bucky do? (Score:1)
Lebowski
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Would anyone have a problem If Bucky laid 80-100 on them? Not me, not yet.

December 1st, 2010 at 12:44 AM | SOS (Score:1)
NorthwesternFan
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What's Michigan's Strength of Schedule?

'Cats comin' for y'all

December 1st, 2010 at 1:12 AM | According to the latest (Score:1)
gbdub
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According to the latest Sagaring ratings, our SOS is the 30th highest in the country.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm

December 1st, 2010 at 9:42 AM | OSU President Gordon Gee said what? (Score:1)
MGoShtoink
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Speaking of SOS... did any of you hear about tOSU's president saying (I'm paraphrasing) that Boise State and TCU will always get into a big bowl because they run their conference playing "Little Sisters of the Poor"? 

Mike and Mike jumped on this immediately this morning.  BSU, according to Sagarin, is ranked HIGHER in terms of SOS than OSU (62 vs. 64)!!  So OSU plays on "Murderers Row" and BSU plays the "Little Sisters of the Poor"?

I know you can't put a ton of faith in the data and it changes weekly, but come on, look at the data before you open your mouth.

Gordon Gee needs to keep his mouth shut and focus on running his school.  I'm glad MSC keeps her nose out of Michigan athletics. 

December 1st, 2010 at 9:44 AM | The Pac 10 was NOT terrible this year (Score:1)
oakapple
Joined: 02/06/2009
MGoPoints: 1315

I don’t know where you get that from.

First of all, they play nine conference games, to eight in the Big Ten. This means that half the conference has an extra loss.

Their OOC schedule is also tougher. Four Pac 10 schools played 2 AQ programs, vs. only two Big Ten schools that did. And that doesn’t even count Oregon State, which played both Boise State and TCU.

By the way, there were three Pac 10 vs. Big Ten games. The Pac 10 went 2-1, and their only loss was by one point.

Marc Shepherd
New York, NY

December 1st, 2010 at 10:13 AM | Relax (Score:1)
Ziff72
Joined: 07/07/2008
MGoPoints: 5142

I didn't say the Big Ten was better.   I just think the Pac 10 sucks and don't use the fact USC beat a stellar Minnesota team as the tiebreaker with that PAC 10 is 2-1 against the Big Ten stat.

They do play a tougher schedule because they play more conference games and because they can't sell out there stadiums they schedule tougher OOC games.   What you fail to mention is that they didn't ya know like win any of those games.  The conferences signature OOC win was Arizona getting a fluke win at home against a 7-5 Iowa team.  

 

December 1st, 2010 at 10:35 AM | Facts are stubborn things (Score:1)
oakapple
Joined: 02/06/2009
MGoPoints: 1315

The Pac 10 doesn’t suck. It just doesn’t, unless you have a much stronger adjective in mind for the Big East and the ACC. If you actually look at data, as opposed to guessing, the difference between the Pac 10 and the Big Ten isn’t much, though I agree the Big Ten was better this year.

I will propose this bargain. You are entitled to describe Arizona’s win over a 7-5 Iowa team as a fluke, if you also believe that Michigan’s wins over 7-5 Notre Dame, 5-7 Indiana, and 6-5 Illinois (pending this weekend’s final game) were flukes too. If you’re into flukes, what about Wisconsin’s near-loss at home to Arizona State, where a missed PAT was the difference in the game? Oh, and what about Michigan State’s win over Notre Dame, where the wining play was about a quarter-second away from being blown dead as the play clock expired? Those damned flukes!

Marc Shepherd
New York, NY

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