Tennessee is not recruiting well just because they got 18 dudes
Yeah I hit save before I'd completed the post. Included now
The article is dated the 10th, with Lewan's announcement coming on the 9th. Would be interesting to know if Steele saw that and decided not to revise his post, or simply didn't have time to get that information in.
Steele is saying we'll be better than 8-4 simply with a better schedule and other things fairly equal. Lewan's return probably raises Steele's confidence (ie, 85% to 90%) in a better record but not a material change.
Of course I am projecting my own assessment - Lewan reduces the risk of a catastrophe on the OL compared to the feeble OL this year.
The new linemen should have some experience. Not trying to split hairs, just Miller was a backup Center in 6 games last year, and the coaches run some pretty intense scrimmages, as close to game conditions as they can. Lewan had some positive buzz about the 4 freshmen, too.
Well, like, duh
I fully expect Michigan to top its win total from 2012
I would hope so. Michigan's 2013 schedule is not as tough as 2012's, but there are some question-mark games:
(I'm assuming CMU, Akron, CT, Minnesota and Indiana are pretty solid W's)
I've got Northwestern on that list because I have a sense those squirrely bastards are going to continue to be sneaky-good.
ND will be tough, but not insurmountable. This will be interesting to see how ND responds to the end of the season, Kelly's NFL flirtation, and losing their heart and soul in Te'o. But they will still be talented regardless.
I have no idea what to expect out of PSU. They lose that amazing senior class that was quite talented and also held them together. They might be starting a true freshmen QB and I don't think there's enough talent around him to hide that. Plus they also lost their DC.
MSU will be tough as usual, but we'll soon start seeing the recruiting talent gap make it self apparent. But that may not be as evident until next year.
I just don't think we'll lose at NW. It's not really a road game, and what else do they have next year that they didn't have the last two years? A really talented RS Frosh or true sophomore DE I suppose. The last two years have been a bit fortunate o our part, but again, the talent gap should start to show soon. And basically, I just don't think they have the horses to hang as long as we don't self destruct.
Ohio. Yeah, that's a tough game.
I agree that ND will be plenty surmountable.
MSU, will be much easier than a lot of people think. Sure, they were better than their record this year, but I won't say that if they go 6-6 next year. They still weren't that good, and their three best players left early, along with a few others. They have no running back, a mediocre OL and a sub-mediocre DL. Not a recipe for beating good teams.
I think we said that last year. That "their whole offense left, and their best D player in Worthy. We'll beat them handily"
If you looked at MSU 2 years ago and thought worthy was what made that defense work you where mistaken. The secondary and pass rush either from their line or through blitzes was made it work. Any time you can blitz and know your corners will lock down the offensives WR's you have a crazy advantage.
I think it's a little of both. I don't think people were saying we'd beat MSU handily after they lost Worthy because they returned everyone else on D. But this year, they lose 3 of 4 on the DL, a LB and a DB, this after MSU hasn't recruited a DT since they recruited Worthy, basically. Their DL will be both bad and thin, which means they won't be able to take advantage of our one real weakness - the interior OL.
MSU gets a little worse every year, and we get a little better. I think it's a while before MSU beats us again, and I think they know it.
Kyle Kalis would like to suggest the interior of the line is "not our real weakness"
I'd be very happy to say I'm wrong, but until Kalis actually plays a college football game, I'll be skeptical.
I think we said that last year. That "their whole offense left, and their best D player in Worthy. We'll beat them handily"
Actually, a lot of people here feared MSU going into this season. For some reason they bought the MSU hype about Maxwell and were convinced, based on two seasons (2010 and 2011), that Dantonio would have them contending every year. I predicted before the year that MSU would be more like a 7-5/8-4 team and many here disagreed.
I saw 8-4 as their logical resting place. I really didn't think that 6-6 was going to be where they fell to. I wouldn't be heartbroken if it was farther next year. 0-12 would be OK, but 6-6 for a couple more years while they keep trying to stick it out with Dantonio and we beat them every year would be OK, too.
I think Dantonio is a pretty good coach overall and will lead them to bowls on an annual basis - but with Michigan returning to its usual level of prominence, MSU is very unlikely to do as well as it did in 2010 and '11. I think they'll generally win six to eight games a year. I think that will be true next year as well. Their passing game will improve but the loss of Bell will negate a lot of that improvement, and their D will be a shade weaker with some rebuilding up front.
All season the "experts" touted ND's ability to shutdown offenses and highlighted Te'o as the difference maker with his tackling, interceptions and leadership. So subtract the heart of their D.
Also subtract their #2 tackler in Motta who makes the secondary calls. Subtract their #1 rusher and a key chunk of the OL that carried their O for long stretches.
UM should be 10+ pt favorites at home and ND should lose 3-4 games next year.
Has there ever been a double digit spread for this game?
I actually agree that ND is very beatable next year, however, in describing what ND is losing, you pretty much also described Michigan.
Losing our leading tackler (Demens)
Heart of the defense (Kovacs)
Guy who makes secondary calls, (Kovacs)
#1 rusher (Denard)
And we are certainly losing a chunk of our Oline, though I'm not sure how "key" they are.
Like I said I actually agree with you, it was just an interesting thing I noticed as I read through it.
EDIT: My apologies, seems as though Jake Ryan actually led the team in tackles. Sorry!
Also, didn't Demens get unseated by Ross at the end of the year?
Not to my knowledge???
He was hurt in the Outback Bowl and that is why Bolden played so much, but I never saw him lose his job to Ross.
Northwestern is supposed to be very good next year... In my mind, I often overlook them when making predictions for the season. Even this year, were it not for a miracle last second Roundtree catch, we would have lost to them...
not sure when the last time we had a streak like that was
Starting with the victory over Purdue in '69 up to the 10-10 tie with OSU in '73, we were 28-0 at home.
Starting with the victory over Purdue in '69 up to the 21-14 loss to OSU in '75, we were 38-0-3 at home.
Bo also went 17-0 at home from '76 up to the loss to MSU in '78.
And that's why BO is a legend.
It certainly was Bo's—and Michigan's—good fortune to start out at a time when the Big Ten was without a doubt the worst it's ever been in terms of overall strength. Once better coaches starting appearing at other conference schools (like Fry at Iowa) and we started playing ND, the long home victory streaks came to an end.
The fact that the conference is much more competitive now is a testament to how good 14-0 really is.
Well let's hope Coach Hoke can bring that record to 21-0 at the end of next season.
So you're saying this "Bo" fella was a good coach or something? Why haven't I heard more about him?
Believe it or not, in '74 and '75 there was lewd anti-Bo graffiti scrawled on the walls of the men's rooms in several downtown A2 bars, slamming him for his record against OSU and in bowl games. Funny how perspective changes over the years.
but the anit-Bo crowd stopped and held its collective breath in 1978 when Bo took a little weekend trip to Texas. Texas A/M offered to make Bo the highest paid Coach in College Football.
It would not surprise me if Bo did this (ala Izzo) to show those detractors that he was a sought after coach.
It was 1982, not 1978, and your supposition that Bo "did this" to show his worth isn't supported by what transpired:
"On January 15, 1982, Texas A&M offered Schembechler nearly $3 million for 10 years—the richest contract in the history of college athletics—to become the school's football coach and athletic director. Schembechler turned it down. "Frankly, I've come to the conclusion that there are things more important in this world than money," Schembechler said. "For that reason, I've decided to stay at Michigan."
TA&M initiated the contact with Bo—he didn't seek them out in order to prove to his doubters how good he was.
We also had a winning streak at home from the final month of 2002 to the ND game (second home game of the year) in 2005. It reached about 16 or 17 games, IIRC.
RR is still mad Hoke ate his cake
The only opinion I care about is Drew Sharp's, and he said he believes Michigan will forfeit all its games.
I think the opinion of Steele is someting pretty much everyone on this board agreed upon on January 2nd. There were/are some questions about the O-line, but overall I think next years line will be an improvement over this years. Devin's passing ability will help the running game, and JMFR is gonna be JMFR along with help from Morgan, Bolden, and Ross, who all were solid contributors last year. Plus as Steele pointed out the teams we lost too were 46-4 last season and Nebraska had three of those. Now three of those games could have easily went the other way, ND, Neb,and tsiO, so 8-4 could have been 11-1 had we caught some lucky breaks last year, like Nebraska seem to do week in and week out.
I rated them lower than most as their schedule was very difficult, with games against Alabama, Notre Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State all coming on the road.
And we'll be better in 2013 because our schedule will be easier? This is one of my pet peeves. Nobody who voices an opinion like this should ever get a vote in a poll. Ranking one team above another because their schedule gives them a better chance to go undefeated is a plague upon those polls. Combining that with a reluctance of many voters to change the order of teams from their initial ballot as long as their records remain the same makes me think any system that uses those polls is broken.
The final Top 25 had a 90% correlation to simple win-loss records.
Few glaring examples: ND ranked above UGA? FLA ranked 5 spots above UL with same record and Sugar Bowl beating? OSU at #3 with 0 quality wins and squeaking out 4 wins (UM, Pur, MSU, WI) against teams outside the Top 20?
These guys just rank teams on schedule and then move up the SEC teams & move down the small conference teams.
I think he meant rated lower meaning worse record because UMhad the most difficult schedule in the country. Because we had such a slim margin of loss in most games and UM is re-establishing depth, the early weakness in the schedule and having Neb., ND, and Ohio at home probably swings at least a win or two back to UM.
Maybe I am mistaken, but didn't Phil Steele predict that Michigan was going to play for/win the the BCS title this past season?
Okay, then I was mistaken. I know some highly-regarded member of the national media did. Carry on.
Was the dude from CBS, IIRC. He thought UM would lose to Alabama and play them in a rematch, which was patently ridiculous because we all knew there wasn't going to be a rematch this year.
to his success with predictions: Magic 8 Ball.
Outlook is hazy.
Phil Steele looked at our team in-depth for 2 seasons and then looked at our schedule for next year and came up with a very logical and well thought out solution, and it scares me a little.
I completely agree with him. We play much better at home, on offense at least, we play pretty good defense everywhere. our away games were lost by slim margins, and those should tip in our favor next year. I expect wins versus ND, Nebraska, and Ohio next year and it's not much of a reach.
Our away games are a different story, but like Phil Steele said (feels funny saying that) with our legitimate passing attack and stout defense they should improve our road record. They played pretty well in the bowl game missing key contributors, so with everyone in place they should be able to overcome lesser teams than South Carolina on the road next year.
Northwestern could be tough, they seem to be "in" just about every game they play.
Penn State is a question mark. They played out of their minds last year, better than anyone expected, but eventually their performance will suffer from the sanctions.
Sparty loses everybody again, and it won't be easy to replace what they lost. Pass rushers DE Tom Gholston, and LB Chris Normon, CB Adams, plus RB Bell, and TE Sims leave for the draft, and 3 interior linemen graduate. They could still have a viable passing threat with Burbrige, and Arnett, but not enough to worry about.
Next year we could be having a very ND/Ohio 2012 type season. Good team, good defence, favorable schedule, and some luck. Still gotta beat Ohio at the end.
I am old school. First let me say Denard was one of the most exciting players ever BUT he also made a lot of mistakes. The Notre Dame game case in point. I often wondered what Bo would do after the 3rd or 4th turnover in a game. I think if Bo coached Denard would either be a running back or if at QB the attack would have been about 90% run option spread. I also think when you have a star like that, other players tend to watch him and wait for him to make something happen. I think next years offense will be better mainly due to less turnovers, a more of a balanced attack and other players stepping up. Also, maybe the coaches will have the number two QB ready if the starter goes down.
Yes, clearly they would have been better in the worst game he played. As for the total of his career, I don't think so, nor do I think it's a close call.
D Brown in 87 when he chucked 7 picks against Sparty and never pulled him. Bo would have had him in the wishbone with a lot of option and play action deep passes.
which is why I've bought it about 10 years running.
He tries to sell his predictive prowess so he can get bettors to pay for his "insight," but if you look closely at his claims he's not nearly as awesome as he portrays himself. I just ignore that part of his pub.