Steady State Michigan Football Expectations
Good Friday to you all!
Just curious, what is everyone's expectation of the MIchigan football program in a steady state environment? This is irrespective of any particular coach and happens when we have ironed out the major kinks, have a coach that most are happy with and will be around for many years to come, and are recruiting and performing on a consistant basis.
I understand that the quagmire of the past couple years has tempered our expectations to something more realistic in the near future, but it still seems that many have lost sight of the greatness of our program and have lowered their expectations going into the distant future. And they are absolutely fine with it! One particular poster said it was fine with fielding a good (not necessarily great) team that goes to BCS games every now and again, a la an Iowa or Wisconsin. Boooo!
My expectations:
- Be in the hunt for a NC game going into November 1 out of every 4 years. (I'm in the camp that NCs are a more important focus than winning the B10. If you are in the hunt for an NC, then you are in the hunt to win the B10, but not vise versa necessarily)
- Beat our rivals (mainly OSU) more often than not
- Recruit a top 5-8 recuiting class every year (with a couple exceptions peppered throughout)
- No NCAA trouble (this really goes without saying)
Thoughts?
April 22nd, 2011 at 10:45 AM ^
First thought that comes to mind is how do you win a NC without winning the Big10? Your logic there is a bit baffling.
April 22nd, 2011 at 10:51 AM ^
that was his logic...if you want an NC, you need a B1G C to get there, but focusing on the B1G doesn't necessarily include the NC.
April 22nd, 2011 at 10:51 AM ^
As he said: being in the hunt for a national championship = being in the hunt for the Big Ten title. The inverse is not true.
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:49 AM ^
I don't think he is down playing the importance of the B1G, he is empasizing the need to have greater expectations.
I, for one, agree with the OP on almost everything except for maybe recruiting. I think that a top 10-15 recruiting class every year is a (somewhat) reasonable expectation.
If you are in the hunt for a MNC, you are almost necessarily in the hunt for a B1G championship.
Also, beat Ohio more times than they beat us!
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:53 AM ^
We've already beaten Ohio more times than they've beaten us.
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:57 AM ^
I think the OP is making the point that you can have different game/season strategies if you have a B1G focus vs. NC focus. Bo used to do this all the time (or at least was accused of it).
For instance, a B1G game late in the season...Bo might play for a tie rather than gamble late knowing that a tie didn't hurt him much in the conference race. However, a tie DID hurt in the polls and, therefore, the NC hunt.
Since we don't have ties anymore, i think the new "confernce focus" strategy could be a late season game in which your team already has a B1G Champ. birth sewn up, and you play all your scrubs to save them....thus enhancing your conference championship hopes (in theory) but hurting your NC hopes.
Ergo, i understand the point...in thoery. However, that point seems sort of silly in this day and age. I think everyone and anyone is trying to win each and every game with maximum effort. Nobody is "giving away" games anymore or holding too much back.
April 22nd, 2011 at 10:55 AM ^
I think this brings to light what people think "Michigan" is. In terms of the "we're going to be Michigan Again" crowd. (in my opinion we've never stopped being Michigan, Agree with RVB and all that jazz)
But my standard baseline Decade would be:
Contend for the B1G every year (top 4)
Win the B1G at least every 4 years
Contend for the National Title at least once a decade (I'd count 2006 as contending)
Winning record against all major rivals
Go to a bowl game every year, be at least .500 in bowls
Average record of 9-3, 10 wins at least 3 times a decade
Only lose 3-5 players to Early NFL (have lots of NFL talent, but graduate them. Think Long/Henne with the occasional Warren/Woodson)
Lead the nation in attendance (easy)
<2 Major Legal Issues per year. Remember that SI article and "stats". Football players actually get in trouble with the law LESS often than other people their age in their demographics. And at Michigan it should be better than your average football player.
No program Shadyness (recruiting, oversigning, NCAA, etc.)
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:03 AM ^
Winning the Big Ten and beating rivals are the most important things. I could really care less about the NC as long as the system is the way it is now. Staying solidly in the top ten year in and year out is more important to me and it all starts by taking the Big Ten crown.
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:26 AM ^
I was going to say "double everything" and that should be the program's goals. But with the addition of Nebraska and a championship game, i'm not sure it's realistic to average more than 1 Big Ten championship every 4 years. We will no longer get credit for co-championships.
I do think we should contend for the National Title more than once a decade. Doesn't necessarily have to be getting to within one game of a sure entry in the championship game like in 2006, but a legitimate path to the title game entering the OSU game two or three times a decade (basically being 10-1 or better).
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:34 AM ^
I think we just have differing versions of "Contend"
I noted that an average year should be 9-3, but that we should win 10+ (of 12) at least 3 times a decade
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:37 AM ^
Your comment had an interesting way of looking at this - a baseline for the Decade. I like this because looking at a given season and saying "anything less than XX wins is a failure" is never fair - too many variables, such as injury, schedule, etc.
So, for the decade (using many of the same categories that you listed), I expect:
1. Contend for the B1G every year - by contend, I mean that going into the final game, or at a minimum final two games, we have a realistic shot of going to the B10 title game.
2. Go the the B10 title game 5 times.
3. Win the B10 title game 2-3 times. In my view, there are three power teams in the conference (once we right the ship) - Michigan, OSU and Nebraska. We should each win the B10 2-3 times, which would account for 6-9 of the 10 B10 titles for the decade, leaving 1-4 years where it will be won by PSU, Wisco or Iowa.
4. Contend for the National Title 1-2 times, meaning at least 11 wins going into the B10 title game.
5. 5 or more wins against OSU
6. 7 or more wins against Sparty
7. 5 or more wins against Nebraska
8. 7 or more wins against the Wisco, Iowa, PSU level teams.
9. 8 or more wins against the Illinois, Northwestern
10. 9 or more wins against Purdue, Indiana and Minn.
11. Go to a bowl game every year, be at least .500 in bowls
12. Average record of 9-3, 10 wins at least 3 times a decade
5-5 in bowls for a decade just doesn't cut it for me. That means you ended your season with a loss half the time.
One thing I would like to add- graduate all your players that don't leave early for the NFL.
Totally agree. I think it's a good list because it's reasonable. Michigan has always been great, but let's be honest, we've never been the best program in the country since out main competition was the Ivy League. That list is approxomately the program Bo had, and I think it's ambitious, but not unresonable given the fact that we sit on a state with little HS talent, asking us to be USC is just kind of silly.
April 22nd, 2011 at 10:55 AM ^
Funny - I was going to post a very similar thread today. I think this is easier to do over a 10-year period. Here's a 10-year stretch that I would call successful for Michigan football:
- no major NCAA violations or frequent, ugly discipline issues
- 10 bowl appearances
- 3+ Big Ten titles
- 2 serious runs at a national title a la 1997 or 2006
- 5+ wins vs. OSU
- 6+ wins vs. Notre Dame (if we play them 10 times)
- 7+ wins vs. MSU
Recruiting only matters to me insofar as it contributes to wins, so I wouldn't list it among my primary criteria. If we do all of the things above, I don't care how highly ranked the guys are who pull it off.
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:21 AM ^
a turd could construct such a fine answer. Nicely done sir, and I can agree on all points. This would make me very happy.
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:24 AM ^
Those seem like a pretty solid set of goals. It's never likely that a school will win a national title, but I think being in the hunt to for the title game twice a decade going into OSU is about right. Michigan is never going to have the talent base to compete for national titles every single year.
Someone above listed a .500 or better bowl record. The big name teams are always going to struggle in bowls because when they're up, they get into the BCS against really good teams. Win they're down, they get shoved into bad matchups with better teams because their fans travel well. Just a thought.
April 22nd, 2011 at 12:00 PM ^
"Michigan is never going to have the talent base to compete for national titles every single year."
It hurts to read that, but I agree that it's realistic in the short term. Maybe medium term, too, unless certain population trends get reversed.
What hurts even more is that, not too long ago, Michigan *did* have the talent base to compete at a high level. They were regularly mentioned as one of the top five sources of NFL players. I haven't heard that for a few years. I guess we should be thankful that they got there in '97.
What I meant with that comment is Michigan cannot match a school like Texas or OSU when it comes to in-state recruiting. The truth is that most recruits--even high profile ones--stay close to home. In the past, Michigan has been able to go into, say, Southern California when USC was down and poach a couple of top players. I feel like the schools with the best recruiting bases are all really serious about being good at football right now, so it is going to be harder and harder for Michigan to poach top players from around the country, which is what they've had to do in the past 20+ years to be successful.
Gotcha.
April 22nd, 2011 at 10:56 AM ^
I'm a moran. I get it now. My only other thought is the winner of the Big10 has to like it's odds of playing in the NC. Unfortunately for ESPN you can only put one SEC team in so that has us battling it out with other lesser conferences in my opinion. I think our conference's championship game can actually help us leap frog a team to get into the NC.
April 22nd, 2011 at 12:22 PM ^
I'm a moran too. Patty Moran is the name. Top o' the mornin' to ya!
April 22nd, 2011 at 10:57 AM ^
Big Ten Championships...nuf said
Amen, brother. No need to say any more. That's the final word on the subject, all right!
April 22nd, 2011 at 10:57 AM ^
Big Ten Championships...nuf said
But I thought you said...? Aw, hamburgers!
April 22nd, 2011 at 10:58 AM ^
- In the modern (Bo-Mo-Carr) era, Michigan has won about 3/4 of its games. In the short term, this is what I am looking for. Top 8 recruiting classes every year...in the midwest...without cheating(and yes I am looking at you Ohio) is not likely I am afraid. Top 15 every year might be a more reasonable goal. You want to beat MSU 3/4 years, ND maybe 3/5, and at least split with OSU. NC game every 5-6 years, NC every 10. If you're going to do it clean, thats pretty much the ceiling.
April 22nd, 2011 at 10:58 AM ^
No Freekbass. Ever.
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:02 AM ^
But I'm not sure any state of affairs can reverse the recent decades of Sparty dominance of the state of Michigan.
/Sparty Goggles: Engaged
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:16 AM ^
I would say ~9.5 wins a season (remember, this includes Big Ten title and bowl games)
Big Ten Championship game 1/3 years (you have to at least think you split with Nebraska and Iowa gets some, then there is the occassional Cinderella, it could possibly be more difficult for Michigan assuming they play OSU every year).
Win Big Ten 1/5 years (this seems low, but remember that now there are no more ties. Only 1 team wins it a year. So this is basically saying that Michigan needs to win better than 50% once they get to the Big Ten Title game).
Finish in the top half of Division every year (I think consistency is the biggest step to take here)
Success against top 10, top 25 teams (Look at Carr's record against these teams, it's great. Beating good teams is very important to the program, as is beating bad teams obviously, but you get the idea).
Compete for a National Championship every decade.
Win ~50% of Bowl games
Produce pro prospects
No major NCAA issues
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:30 AM ^
this is reasonable. Obviously I would love for Michigan to win the B1G be in the NC picture every year, but it's just not realistic. We (I'm using the royal "we" here) waited almost 50 years between National Championships. People seem to forget that and think that 2006 level success should be attainable every year.
Like your list. I'd still like to see one in four, just because of the whole Bo legacy. The first time I realized that Bo got a championship for every single player that was with M for four years was a special moment as a fan.
BTW, OSU has no bearing on whether we can get to the BTCG, except as a tiebreaker with UN or Iowa or whatever. They're not in our division.
Up until last year, you could be a co-champion. Now, is they say in the HIghlander, there can be only one. Adding Nebraska and taking away possible co-championships has made it at least twice as hard to win one now, and maybe three times as hard.
With imagination on offense, like Borges calling a flea-flicker against TCU last year, one out of three years is possible. With conservative playcalling, one every five years is stretching it. Splitting the difference, I'll say one BT Championship every four years is reasonable. Sadly, though, I see no National Championships in the future unless Borges becomes one of the most creative coaches in the game, and Michigan pays enough to keep him around.
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:21 AM ^
At the risk of invoking the gods of MANBALL, I'd like a team that plays smart, tough football, at top-speed, and that (in addition to crushing tOSU repeatedly) strikes fear in the heart of the SEC.
Oh yeah, and that other stuff about no violations and high graduation rates would be good too...
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:28 AM ^
U-M ranked in the top-25 at all times.
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:31 AM ^
and the rest will take care of itself.
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:48 AM ^
At my age, long term is 3 years. Realistically, looking at our tough schedule and factoring in an improving team I see a total of at least 15 losses for 2011,2012, and 2013. This number includes any bowl games we may play in.
How many of you are going to be satisified averaging 5 losses a year? With Nebraska added I would hope DB would think about getting out of the ND game soon.
GO BLUE
I don't know if he'll last past 2. The alumni/angry mob are restless and they want the team to deliver, now.
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:44 AM ^
We'll be fine.
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:57 AM ^
I have never seen a winning/sucessful Michigan football season... like all of you have... I grew up a fan but never truly got into it until 2008. I just want them to beat Michigan State. To be honest if we had a 1-11 season with a win over them it might make me happy
April 22nd, 2011 at 12:01 PM ^
Beat Ohio!!....... I mean, really, is there anything else?
April 22nd, 2011 at 12:24 PM ^
To do what Michigan has done throughout its history, with a 13 game season (12 regular plus 1 bowl), we need to average about 10 wins per season, which would make an average season 10-3 or .769. That is very close to our overall historical record prior to the last 3 years. Since there are now 2 divisions, we should win our division 2/3 of the time and win half of the playoff games, making us Big Ten champs 1/3 of the time. That plus a clean program with good graduation rates and close to a 50% bowl record would make me very happy, regardless of how frequently it all combined to bring us to the NC game. Not to make this at all about RR, but he brought in a lot of truly great kids over his tenure (and he deserves credit for that); if BH brings in kids of equal character, we should certainly satisfy the clean program and good graduation rate part. Then lets hope that a better overall staff, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, gets us the wins.
10 win season = acceptable season benchmark for non-transition years. This year I'd be afraid to see fewer than 8, but 9 is where I think we're going to end up. Winning at least 5 out of 10 bowl games is also critical for conference prestige, if we're going to be a perennial bowl team again.
April 22nd, 2011 at 12:39 PM ^
Be in contention for the Big 10 title going into the final three games almost every year. Seriously, if Penn State, Wisconsin and OSU are in the other "Leaders" Division, then we only have Nebraska (whom we have yet to gauge in relation to the Big Ten, but we suspect will be a power) and sometimes Iowa to contend with on the "Legends" side.
Or maybe I am being too arrogant ...
Really I just want to be able to tell someone that my football team is better than their's and, barring that, that their football team is cheating compared to mine.
Also I want NFL players to cheer for just because that brings lasting happiness to my heart.
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:09 PM ^
NO NCAA violations
Graduate our players
9 - 10 wins a year
Top 12 nationally at end of year
Win the B1G every 3 - 4 years (very tough but we should have high goals)
Over .500 record in bowl games & vs ND / sparty / tossu
Dominate in-state recruiting
Have the best helmets on planet (check)
...but all this will take a couple of years to get there
April 22nd, 2011 at 11:48 PM ^
you sure aim high