Spread for BG Game
Alright folks.....first, I take 100 percent blame for that effort on Saturday. The Over/Under post I did centered on the possible stats for the backups. Clearly, that was a jinx It wont happen this week. Sorry.
Anyway, here is the line for this week
MICH -24.5 over BGSU......Over/Under 62.5
They have not re-released any future lines, so we dont know if Michigan's vulnerable look on Saturday is having any impact yet when it comes to Octoebr or November betting.
But, our man, Denard Xavier Robinson continues to rake in the bets for his Heisman candidacy. He is now the CLEAR CUT betting chalk to win the award.
Denard: 2.5/1.......was 4.5/1 a week ago
Pryor and Ingram, 5/1.......TP was 3.5/1 and Ingram 10/1 a week ago
Mallet and Moore, 8/1.....Moore was 8/1 a week ago, while Mallet Fumbles Snaps was 10/1
I dont think I've seen a Michigan Over/Under total set higher than 60 before.
September 20th, 2010 at 2:02 PM ^
I'll take the points and the over.
September 20th, 2010 at 2:06 PM ^
This will be the typical resonse to this line. At least Vegas has some faith.
September 20th, 2010 at 2:23 PM ^
I said it backwards. I meant I'll take Michigan minus the points and the over.
If I take Michigan minus the points and the over, then if Michigan scores 44 points, I can't lose money. If they score 19 points, I win both; more or less I win one and lose the other.
September 20th, 2010 at 3:16 PM ^
The team, the team, the team.
September 20th, 2010 at 5:45 PM ^
My wife pointed it out to me in AnnArbor.com's Sunday edition. I went online and found it on their Flickr account.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/annarborcom/5002259802/in/set-72157624983301282/
September 20th, 2010 at 6:28 PM ^
Easy money.
September 20th, 2010 at 2:05 PM ^
I wish the UM fan base could have set the line. Based on all the doom and gloom I was hoping to get this at a reduced rate after the horrid performance Saturday, but this seems too high and I'll lay off. Maybe I'll take the under. I really think the d will come out with a little chip on their shoulder Saturday. I expect a blow out but 24.5 is a bit much for this team.
September 20th, 2010 at 9:49 PM ^
but I think 45-17 is more than reasonable to beat a team by who is
a) bad at running
b) missing their starting QB
c) facing Denard Xavier Robinson
September 20th, 2010 at 2:11 PM ^
We win, but don't cover. If we are really up by anything close to 23.5, the backups will be in, and the lead would be reduced by garbage time.
I would also take the over. We will hang up another 40+ points, and will allow at least 3 Tds and an annoying FG.
September 20th, 2010 at 6:33 PM ^
We had no garbage time against UMASS. BG can score points,all they got, no Defense. Prediction....... MICHIGAN 56 BG 38
September 20th, 2010 at 2:12 PM ^
I saw the open was Mich -20. There must have been a bunch of non-MGoBloggers jumping on that, which is a good sign. Vegas does a pretty good job of setting lines for 1-A match-ups, so this is quasi comforting for this week.
What is disconcerning is that BGSU employs a "short passing game". Shades of Toledo-FAIL come to mind with a receiver getting 18 receptions and playing keep away on the clock. Good thing our offense is 180-degrees separated from '08.
Early gut feelings say no cover, but close. Michigan 49-28ish.
September 20th, 2010 at 2:39 PM ^
Based on defensive questions.
Change of topic... Just got back from the Great American Beer Festival in Denver. Great time. What are you currently brewing?
September 20th, 2010 at 2:49 PM ^
My dad and I just brewed a Wakemeup Stout. Can't wait to sit inside and watch Michigan, and drink that when it gets cold. =]
September 20th, 2010 at 3:05 PM ^
I just threw an IPA into the oak barrel. It will secondary there for 5 weeks. I have only morning work on Thursday, so I will definitely brew then. Perhaps I should set up a poll and see what the MGoCommunity thinks I should brew. Whatever I brew would be available at the Illinois game... Hmmm.
I do need to brew some (mas)XXX Saturnalia (aka Christmas Crack) soon -- but that won't be ready for Illinois. Tis the season for that.
September 20th, 2010 at 2:20 PM ^
Whoa, folks, take a deep breath. The Sagarin PREDICTOR has M as less than a 14 point favorite (including 3 points for home field).
Expect another close one!
Details here: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/what-sagarin-predictor-tells-us-about-bgsu-g…
September 20th, 2010 at 2:32 PM ^
I think the Sagarin number is a lot closer than the current Vegas line. Even with BGSU using a backup QB, I expect the score will be something like 35-20.
September 20th, 2010 at 8:05 PM ^
We will score more than 35 points Saturday, that much I'm confident in.
September 20th, 2010 at 2:44 PM ^
Can the Sagarin formula take into account the fact that BG will be playing without its starting QB?
September 20th, 2010 at 6:15 PM ^
September 20th, 2010 at 6:34 PM ^
The predictor uses only comparative scores. It doesn't account for injuries or matchups. It is probably making BG look better than they are because their QB is hurt, and they took advantage of the Marshall QB throwing 4 picks to beat them handily. I'll be surprised if Robinson throws even one.
September 20th, 2010 at 2:33 PM ^
Vegas is capatilizing on the fact that the UM defense was terrible last week. We saw how bad ND's offense looked against UM with their backup qb. With BG's qb out, I'd be suprised if they reached double digits.
September 20th, 2010 at 6:12 PM ^
September 20th, 2010 at 2:42 PM ^
Ingram is 5:1? Is there any way to sell a line? With him having missed two games and splitting time with another guy as talented, I would put his chances at about 50:1.
September 20th, 2010 at 2:48 PM ^
I think the Heisman voters are reluctant to crown a two-time winner unless the guy is an absolutely transcendent player. Ingram is good, but I think he kind of won by default last year and I don't see that happening again.
September 20th, 2010 at 3:57 PM ^
Archie Griffin had no business winning it the second time. His production was way down the second year. His second win made #2 on this list of undeserving winners (from a Cleveland paper, no less):
http://www.cleveland.com/ohio-sports-blog/index.ssf/2010/09/heisman_talk_archie_griffin_sh.html
Part of me wouldn't mind seeing Ingram win it again just so we don't have to hear how Griffin is the only two-time winner. (Of course, a much larger part of me wants to see Denard win.)
September 20th, 2010 at 7:16 PM ^
Hey, Hannibal.....the funny thing is people are BUYING Ingram right now at 5/1
He had fallen from 10/1 to 15/1 w/o playing those first two weeks. Nine dominant carries against Duke later and he's almost chalk.
We'll have to watch those odds, because I agree with your sentiment
September 20th, 2010 at 2:46 PM ^
We will cover. Our offense is getting better each week and with its starting QB out, BG will not keep pace. I'd probably take the under, but it's possible we could have a huge scoring output.
September 20th, 2010 at 2:51 PM ^
Not trying to be pessimistic here, but I highly doubt we win by more than 24.
September 20th, 2010 at 6:44 PM ^
Exactly................hope to see some of the young studs on offense, tailbacks, that i keep reading about. Maybe some young OL, DL, would luv to say LB's and Secondary but i think we are all in on that one. If we get any "garbage time" this is it for the season.
September 20th, 2010 at 3:01 PM ^
every betting line has increased the spread since the initial opening. Of course, that might be a reaction to BG's QB being out.
September 20th, 2010 at 3:20 PM ^
WE win by a ROUT as Denards dreads and Velcro causes Wind Burn on the arms and Faces of outstretched BG defensive players.
Wind Burn.
September 20th, 2010 at 3:37 PM ^
The line is actually getting larger in light of the BGSU starting QB going down.
Personally, I think even the ELO-CHESS portion of the computer rankings is highly unreliable.
Michigan fans feel the Vegas line is too big because: 1. the remains of the pain of the last few years, 2. an over-emphasis on being Div.1AA versus a bad non-BCS D-i team, 3. it feels better to expect a closer game and get a blow out than to expect a blow out (and get any result)....this is amplified by what happened this week.
Michigan is clearly much better than BGSU. The defense played better in the two other games this year and a second "emotional down" week in a row is rare for any big team that stumbles.
Michigan covers.
September 20th, 2010 at 4:14 PM ^
That's how many points BG has averaged the first three games. They hung 44 on Marshall. I would take the points and BG.
<br>
September 20th, 2010 at 5:25 PM ^
Fourteen of those points were scored by BG's defense. And most of the others were scored before their QB got hurt.
September 20th, 2010 at 5:27 PM ^
where do you find the future odds for games later in the season?
September 20th, 2010 at 7:18 PM ^
I find them at sportsbook.com
look under college football in their 'games of the year' menu
I had somebody ask me this via my JCB email address. I havent had a chance to get back to him yet, but I might address in the first ever mailbag post at the JCB. Woot!
September 20th, 2010 at 7:44 PM ^
i see something more along the lines of the UCONN game. from what i've gathered, BG is a pass oreinted offense, which increases the chance of short, choppy drives ending in punts. The fact that their starter is hurt only increases the chances that they will have multiple 3 and outs. They will move the ball and they will score, but not nearly enough to keep pace.
MICHIGAN 49-- BG 20