The Spread and the NFL
When RichRod was hired, an oft repeated complaint was that Michigan's presence in the NFL would fade as we moved from a Pro-Style Offense to a Spread Offense, and that this would effect recruiting. Well here is Mel Kiper's latest draft board:
Mel Kiper's latest 2010 Big Board
Around half of the projected first rounders are in a spread system. Yes, around half of those are defensive players, but still - I think it's clear that the offensive system a team runs has no effect on a player's NFL prospects. And that applies to every position - the only first round RB (Spiller) and 1 of the 2 first round QBs (Bradford) run spread offenses.
January 5th, 2010 at 12:01 PM ^
To be fair, the spread Bradford runs is considerably different than what Michigan runs. You didn't Bradford running the ball 10+ times a game. I agree with the overall point though.
January 5th, 2010 at 12:21 PM ^
The only other prominent teams running a spread option are WVU, Florida and Oregon. But still...Steve Slaton, Pat White, Percy Harvin, Tim Tebow. I guess we should all be rooting for these guys to succeed in the NFL.
January 5th, 2010 at 12:32 PM ^
NFL scouts worry about spread passing qb's just as much as spread running qb's because the system doesn't often allow them to throw the kind of throws neccessary fot the NFL. Please see any Texas Tech QB, Colt Brennan etc..... This is a small factor but considering the investment and risk in drafting qb's it is another red flag.
This is all hogwash anyway. The only position this has any effect on is qb and I think that is small. If you have talent at OL,RB and WR they will find you regardless of system.
January 5th, 2010 at 12:20 PM ^
Every team has a wildcat package now. It's actually getting a bit ridiculous.
NFL coaches now-a-days are not innovative.
January 5th, 2010 at 12:36 PM ^
I feel like we've debunked this myth successfully, a few times already. I think a lot of spread principles are used in the NFL. The only thing that probably won't take off in the NFL is the zone-read.
By the way, did anyone catch Brian Billick talking about Tebow during the Sugar Bowl? I was really hoping BB would discuss why NFL QBs don't run as much. Other than that, BB did a good job shedding some "NFL wisdom" on the college game, IMO.
January 5th, 2010 at 1:21 PM ^
Why wouldn't the zone-read take off in the NFL? (I'm seriously asking, I'm not trying to fight ya!) =)
January 5th, 2010 at 1:28 PM ^
I think the prevailing wisdom is that:
1) NFL teams have unlimited practice time and would figure out how to defend it;
2) NFL defensive players are too smart and athletic and would blow the play up; and
3) A QB running 12 times a game would greatly increase the chance of injury and QBs are too expensive to risk.
Still, I would like to see someone try it.
Edit: I think there's a distinct possibility an NFL team will put a spread option package together for Tebow. If anyone can run it in the NFL, it would be him.
January 5th, 2010 at 1:29 PM ^
NFL defenses are too athletic, and NFL QBs are too valuable. I guess you could always try to run it with two RBs instead of the QB.
January 5th, 2010 at 1:56 PM ^
teams are already running a zone-read from the wildcat. in fact, almost every wildcat play ive seen has a read option handoff.
January 5th, 2010 at 2:44 PM ^
I think its just a playfake. It looks the same because the Qb either hands it off to the man coming in motion or keeps it after faking it to him, but I don't think its a read from there. The wildcat is really just about getting a whole lot of blockers in one area and running right behind them, the motion and playfakes, and most passing plays, are really just a fairly simple way to add some confusion to a formation that already makes defenses play out of their comfort zone.
January 5th, 2010 at 1:33 PM ^
But I think I remember hearing something about Tebow's throwing mechanics and how the way he throws makes him vulnerable to NFL defenses.
True?
January 5th, 2010 at 2:23 PM ^
Billick made it a point to diplomatically point out the flaws in Tebow's mechanics, even saying at one point that he'd have to change the way he throws. He also stated that Tebow has never had a "read progression" system to play in, as most of his passes had 1 or 2 reads and/or only had him reading one side of the field (as opposed to the entire field). Billick was saying that Tebow starts in the hole/behind other guys due to his lack of exposure to the "read progression," and seemed to be stating implicitly that Tebow's batshit mechanics just won't cut it in the NFL. Which they probably won't- he simply isn't accurate enough throwing the way he does now. What would he do trying to drop the ball in between zone coverages on his 3rd read on a play against NFL-fast safeties and corners? It seems like all-too-often his completions at Florida were due to wide-open guys. He has a gun, but I think he lacks touch and accuracy.
January 5th, 2010 at 6:51 PM ^
The zone read works because, essentially, it makes the defensive end responsible for two players. Generally this is great, a player can't take both the running back and the quarterback.
I distinctly remember a play earlier in the year from a Philadelphia game. Michael Vick was in the shotgun, took the snap, ran the zone read. The DE came crashing down so Vick pulled the ball and took off. The defensive end managed to recover, dive at Vick, get a hand on his ankle and bring him down for a short loss.
The play was executed perfectly, the problem was that that the defensive end was a freak athlete capable of playing both the RB and the QB. The fear is that in the NFL everybody has won the genetic lottery; this might be a common occurrence when running the zone read.
January 5th, 2010 at 12:44 PM ^
The only players in a spread offense who seem to have their draft stock fall are Qb's. With the exception of Vince Young and Pat white; Missouri's Chase Daniels: undrafted, Hawaii's Colt Brennan: 6th round, Texas Tech's Gram Harrell: undrafted, Oregon's Dennis Dixon: 5th round. It seams to me that unless you are just a phenomenal player or the right team needs you (ie dolphins and Pat White) QB;s in spread offenses get a raw deal, maybe that will change and Michigan will set the new standard for Duel Threat QBs.
January 5th, 2010 at 12:54 PM ^
The biggest problems with spread QBs is that they generally aren't very good at going through receiver progressions, and they rarely take the snap from under center (and thus don't have to footwork to drop back).
In other words, the spread QB has a lot of new things to learn in the NFL, and therefore rarely merits risking a high draft pick.
January 5th, 2010 at 2:00 PM ^
First, of the quarterbacks mentioned, each ran different versions of a spread offense. You had pass heavy versions (Colt Brennan, Graham Harrell) to some spread with run options (Daniels, Young) to more run oriented spread attacks (White, Dixon). Each weren't drafted for different reasons.
Re: Dennis Dixon, he dropped to the 5th round because of his horrific injury that finally forced him to the sidelines during the Arizona game. It was the long recovery that never gave him a chance to improve his draft stock (which he would have - kid had a good arm and great mobility).
January 5th, 2010 at 2:03 PM ^
I suspect he would have gone a bit higher than the fifth round if he had stayed healthy, spread or no spread.
January 5th, 2010 at 5:19 PM ^
Chase Daniels was undersized, as was Pat White. Were White a few inches taller he would have been high first round easily. Daniels was undersized and had some difficulties with accuracy, not a good combo for an NFL QB. However you are totally right about Colt Brennan and Harrell, they were undraftable due mainly to their offense.
January 5th, 2010 at 5:41 PM ^
Chase Daniels' head wasn't undersized. (That's what she said)
Dude's head looked like an orange on a toothpick.
January 5th, 2010 at 12:52 PM ^
I think the NFL will be blown away if a coach decides to run the spread option. No one prepares for it. Look at what the Jets did with Brad Smith last Sunday. You could also (hypothetically) save money by signing a guy like Mike Vick without Vick's name and running that kind of offense. I don't think it will ever happen, but it's lame that no one will take the risk.
January 5th, 2010 at 2:04 PM ^
Is that what you mean by "Mike Vick without Vick's name?"
(I know, I'm sorry, I couldn't resist.)
January 5th, 2010 at 12:57 PM ^
or is it because the only one that has had a successful career in the NFL so far is Drew Brees? A simpler solution would be for spread college QBs to become successful in the NFL and help eliminate the stigma that is the spread offense. Maybe VY with his performance this year is on his way to being another stepping stone for college spread QBs.
Perception is reality and the lack of success of numerous spread QBs is damning.
January 5th, 2010 at 10:06 PM ^
Well, don't most QBs who make the NFL fail? Think of how many enter the league each year.
January 5th, 2010 at 8:38 PM ^
It really is only an issue for the quarterback. The biggest problem NFL teams face is the 53-man roster which in the age of free agency makes it very difficult to carry quality, experienced depth, especially at quarterback. A true read-option spread is not feasible - no NFL quarterback can expect to take that kind of pounding and survive a 16 game schedule plus playoffs.
Brees' strengths are his vision, ability to read the defense and throw accurately on the move, not run a "spread" as we know it. He doesn't have to run past scrimmage with the ball, he can spread the field and get a similar result without the risk.
That is why he is so good, one of the best at this point in his career. I believe Phillip Rivers, Brees' successful at SD has similar skills. In the days before free agency SD could have kept both of them for most of their careers and been bullet-proof at QB. No longer.
January 5th, 2010 at 2:36 PM ^
It would be nice if they up the 53 man roster which they will if they go to a longer season.
January 5th, 2010 at 3:33 PM ^
The NFL wants athletes. They don't care whether you lined up 5 yards from the hash or at the sideline, if you can play ball, they'll come and get you. The formation you line up in has ZERO barring on your physical ability. Quarterback is the only possible hitch because of having to rep the drop back pass.
January 5th, 2010 at 3:45 PM ^
http://simononsports.blogspot.com/2010/01/which-conference-dominates-pl…
20 Wolverines are in the playoffs this year...the most of any school. The Big Ten has 97 representatives compared to 104 from the SEC.