Ugh that's frustrating. It would be a lot harder to accept his decision if he didn't get drafted.
Sportsline predicts Warren goes undrafted
Unfortunate, really. It seems that NFL Draft projections are incredibly fickle these days.
Even if he gets drafted, he made a mistake unless he goes in an early round.
Let me play devils advocate for a minute. Unlike many on this board, I have mantained since he declared for the draft that there was no way he would go earlier than the 3rd round. Now lets look at hypotheticals for a minute:
DW stays and the NFL and players get a new CBA that has a salary cap on first rounders salary. Staying for his fourth year puts Warren in the first round of the draft and he is indeed capped. I don't know what kind of cap they are looking at, but I can't imagine they are going to get paid less than 3 million a year so lets say 3 million.
DW stays, there is a one year lockout (unlikely but let's examine this) and when the NFL resumes DW gets a first rounders salary (stick with the same number) of 3 million per year starting in 2012.
DW stays and there is no lockout and the CBA does not include a rookie salary cap. He gets drafted in the first round and gets $5 million per year.
DW passes on his senior year and get drafted in third round (or worse) so that he can get paid before a lockout. Now he is getting locked in at a substantially lower salary, likely less than a million per year.
Had he waited for after his senior year he would have likely made that money back in one season (two if there was a lockout) and it would have compounded each season thereafter (contrast a contact paying out $875,000 per year to one paying $3 million per year). Lets say it was a 5 year deal, how much money has he lost over the five years? Over $10 million dollars.
If money was his reason for leaving he made one hell of a mistake. I wish him the best, but this is simply a very bad decision.
Hopefully, it will give room for pause among others who want to leave early for the draft. At least, among Wolverines. Opposing team players can leave as soon as they'd like.
Awww... What the heck am I saying? Agents have these guys believing they can bend the trajectory of a ball through force of will.
Where does it show that a first rounder (at any position) doesn't make substantially more than a fourth or fifth rounder? I find that impossible to believe.
People at the end of the first round were getting over 10 million dollars while people in the 3rd and 4th rounds were getting between 1.5 and 1.2.
What kind of world do you live in where this is not a substantial difference?
Even if you were drafted in the second round the average salary of second rounders is more than double what 3rd and 4th rounders get. In a contract that lasts at least 3 years that is a huge amount of money.
Anyone that still looks at this situation and thinks DW has made the right decision needs their head examined. No offense to him by any means, but he made a terrible choice.
Talk about a turn of bad luck... When he left there was talk about him possibly being a late first rounder, at least from some of the mocks I read. Now to see that he could go undrafted, whoa...
Best of luck to him
I don't recall ever hearing what his draft projection was. Did Warren or any of the coaches ever release that information? I do recall most analysts saying that he should have stayed in school for his senior year. Looks like they were right. Hopefully even if he doesn't get drafted he can catch on with a team.
None of the coaches ever said anything, it was just me googling mock drafts and a few I read had him going late around. If I remember correctly, it was discussed on here a couple of times too, with most members thinking he'd probably be a 2nd to 4th rounder.
But I think he will get drafted, although it will probably be in the 6th or 7th round, like Arrington a few years back.
Not surprised at all. In a league where scouts obsess over 40 times, Warren's slow times in the combine have doomed him. Hope stuff works out for Warren overall though.
It seems as though that's his primary/biggest criticism. I think if he goes undrafted, I still think he'll make a team very happy. Especially if the expectations are lowered.
Warren has moved on. Pining doesn't do us any good.
I'm telling myself that, by the way, not the board.
Warren has moved on.
No, he can't come back.
Come off it, Misopogon. Stop being a moron!
+1 for let's move forward attitude.
Good luck to Warren.
We appreciate your time here. Loved watching you on Saturdays.
was interviewed yesterday, and the guy asked him who the best corner in the Big Ten was. He quickly said Donavan Warren. I raised my eyebrows... Who knows where he will be picked, if at all.
I'm still pissed they moved the draft to thursday night. I used to have a party every year on saturday with cookout/beer/games/girls/fun/no OSU fans/gambling but now it is all ruined. I work early and a party on a work night is stupid. You can't have a party for rounds 4-7 because nobody gives a **** at that point. Maybe they think that less people will have parties, so more tv's will be turned on as everyone will watch it by themselves this year.
My buddies and I used to have parties the day of the draft, and would turn the first two rounds into a drinking game.
We would create our own big board and project where guys would go in those two rounds. I have to work tonight, so I will miss most of it.
I have great memories from college of waking up from a foggy morning-after stupor and drifting slowly into the TV lounge, where the entire men's wing of my floor would each find a spot and just SIT THERE for about 10 hours, with takeout orders coming in and out non-stop. Then it'd be out for Saturday night, and do the whole thing all over again on Sunday.
Then fail all of your tests on Monday morning, of course. Good times.
on him. Speed isn't much use if you're out of position. Warren is smart, with a lot of game experience. He'll get picked in the late rounds by a good team.
He reminds me a little of Avant, who IIRC was also undervalued in the draft because of questions about speed. The Eagles took him in the fourth round and he has been a great pick for them. I'd expect Warren to go around the same point -- fourth or fifth round, to an organization looking for players who can step into a successful system and not fuck it up -- that is, a good team.
It's hard for me to believe that he won't get drafted. Shazor is a good comparison though unfortunately, the guy was a finalist for the Thorpe award for christ's sake. However, I'll always love him to death for the hit on Kyle Orton on the sidline that caused the fumble!
+1 for a great memory. I was at Ross-Ade for that game. My brother and I went nuts when that play happened. Who fell on the ball? Was that a young Leon Hall? Or am I mistaken?
I'm not sure because my brother and I were going apeshit, I don't remember who fell on it...?
I was really curious after I asked, so I did a little googling. umgoblue.com to the rescue:
From watching the video, it looks like it was indeed Leon Hall.
I'll feel bad for him if he doesn't get drafted, but even so, I'm guessing he'll still make a squad through tryouts. I don't fault him for moving on. It's his life and he felt that this was the best decision. Good for him and good luck to him. I wish him only the best.
If you leave early and don't get drafted
but let's see what actually happens this weekend. If that does come true, that's just more ammunition for negative recruiting. I can just see the Drew Sharp column now: "More proof that Mike Barwis is nothing special and Rich Rodriguez's ability to coach up players is all a myth." It's all BS but unfortunately people would read it and believe it.
Edit: on the other hand, for me PERSONALLY if that actually happens I would feel better about RR because it shows he had less talent than everyone said/thought he did on defense. If Warren was their second-best player on defense, that really says a lot.
article but yeah DWar is not going higher than Round 5. I just don't see him going undrafted though.
Every time I see Donovan's name, I think DW, which makes me think of...
BTW, hope the Lions can snag him in late rounds...That would be pret-ty cool.
I think it's more ridiculous that they said Syracuse's Mike Williams wouldn't get drafted... I always thought of him as a productive football player who needed somebody to throw him the ball.
The guy was a headache his entire college career, and then he quit on his team. I would never want him infecting my locker room.
but as a 6th or 7th rounder... low risk high upside? get him with the right people? I think he could be one of those guys that just really needs a mentor and someone to look up to. Plus if he slacks off or anything you can just cut him since you didn't waste too much on him. The Lions do have a few 7th round picks I believe...
(NSFW... which, like, obv.)
I think that regardless of draft position, Donovan will catch on somewhere in the good ol' US of A.
a) that DW gets drafted, and enjoys a long and successful career, and...
b) that this is the last time we hear "draft prospect from Michigan" and "concerns about his speed" in the same sentence.
Scouts, Inc. has him going in the 5th rd to the Colts. However these mock drafts are rarely accurate except for maybe the top few. Mock drafts are to be taken with a grain of salt and know that it's just someones opinion with little evidence supporting it, especially in the later rounds.
I do remember mock drafts a few months back having Warren go to the Texans in the first rd though. I love reading mock drafts but know that theres not much stock in them, except for the obvious ones. i.e. Bradford, Suh, etc.
When you think about Warren from an objective stance, it's kind of hard to make an argument for him.
1. He ran slow 40 times.
2. He didn't bench well. Which isn't a huge deal in and of itself, but when you KNOW that's something they're going to test at the Combine, you should be prepared.
3. He doesn't really have a position (FS or CB?).
4. He wasn't a huge playmaker at Michigan when it comes to deflections/interceptions.
points 2 & 3 could have been corrected by 1 more year at Michigan and he would have more opportunities for 4.
He may have gotten faster, but that's unlikely.
In that respect, he should have stayed.
Maybe he should have made a "deal" with RR & GERG that he would stay, but wanted to remain at 1 position only?
Yes, he would have had more TIME to do those things, but would he have?
He knew he was entering the NFL Draft, but he still couldn't put up 225 lbs. more than 8 times (or whatever it was). He's been in a highly touted S&C program for two years, but he couldn't do better than that?
He wouldn't necessarily have a position after one more year. He'd still be playing corner in 2010 if he had stayed, and if he didn't run the 40 any faster than 4.68, then NFL personnel people would still question his ability to play corner.
And in my opinion, you're either a ball hawk or you're not. You typically don't see 3-year (or 4-year) starters suddenly have a huge jump in interceptions their final year. Warren started nearly every game from 2007-2009, but he had only 1 INT in 2007 (Illinois), I think he had 1 in 2008 (Northwestern), and I think another 2 in 2009 (Indiana, Iowa). I might have missed an interception or two in there, but the point is that he didn't pick off many passes. I wouldn't expect him to suddenly pick off 6-8 passes as a senior in 2010.
in the 4.5's at Michigan's pro day?
that he did not show a consistent ability to come up and help stuff running plays, and it's a lot harder to do it in the NFL.
when Warren declared for the draft at all, especially as decisively as he did. Why? Because he made a splash with a couple of bat downs and a pick as an underclassmen. Unless my memory is going, Warren was a walking injury for the last two years and was a part of some bad secondaries.
He seems like a good enough guy and I liked him as a player, but one great cornerback can a good defense make in college, and Michigan was anything but good on defense. And he too, at times was targeted. I remember a couple of teams going right at Warren, #6 is in a couple of Notre Dame touchdown highlights for Notre Dame this year. Purdue threw right at him the whole game if I remember correctly.
Should have stayed, could have gotten some really good work in this upcoming year with a little better support back there.
Iowa also threw at him successfully all game. He did have an interception, but it showed that even mediocre college quarterbacks are not afraid to throw at him.
..but he made his decision and I hope it goes well for him. For purely selfish reasons, I would like to see him catch on with the Lions, whether or not he is drafted. If that happens, he would definitely be a nice recruiting resource if he wanted to help out.
Warren gave what he had while he was at UM, had to suffer through three bad seasons, but didn't badmouth anyone on the way out the door. That has to count for something.
I was just going to say, I have a hard time believing that the Lions wouldn't take him with one of their four (!!!) seventh round picks, given their immense needs at corner. I know the scouts aren't convinced that he's a corner at the next level, but considering all the success Michigan corners have had recently in the NFL (Leon Hall is a stud, and Morgan Trent is starting for crying out loud), it seems like he would at least be worth a flyer in the later rounds. I too hope the Lions pick him up and he pans out.
Yeah, but Hall was a stud at Michigan. I would say that Warren's talent is closer to Trent than Hall. Trent is really fast too. Coaches and GMs love speed at CB.
I would not wish a Lions curse on any player.
Trent isn't exactly starting. He's Cincinnati's nickel corner.
As I think about the whole Warren thing, I wonder if his motivations are more complex than simply some agent telling him he can get drafted. As a member of the previous regime, I wonder if Warren wants out of the Rodriguez run program as much as he wants to get to the pros? This is just pure speculation, I do not remember any Warren quotes negative about our current coach, but why stay somewhere you don't really want to be if being here in another re-building year if it is not going to substantially increase the amount of money you are going to earn?
any of the 3 go undrafted. maybe snead, but definitely not mike williams and donovan. mike williams is a first day talent and somebody will gamble on him. as for warren i think he is probably a late-rounder but undrafted? he has potential to be a very solid corner in the right scheme, if not a safety like a poor man's antrel rolle. wouldn't he be an ideal cover 2 corner? he's great in run support, not a thunderous hitter but very sound fundamentals especially as a tackler and he just ran in the mid 4.5's during his pro day.
regardless i'd be heartbroken for him but i just don't see him going undrafted
Different position and different team and all, but whenever somebody leaves early and subsequently goes undrafted, it reminds me of Darius Walker. Life can't be easy for these guys, jumping from team to team, beginning to realize that you probably miscalculated your career trajectory. Let's hope that Warren doesn't become one of them.
If you aren't coming back to improve your draft stock, then come back to win football games. This defense is one NFL calibur corner away from being very dangerous. Think about if Woolfolk is our second best CB, or if he's our deep safety. In either situation, this defense goes from decent to probably a good Big Ten defense. We're pretty confident in our DL plus Roh, our back 5 would be very good, and we could move Turner to safety immediately, and our 2 other LB's would be the only question mark, but we at least have 2 guys in their 3rd year (or more) starting.
Oh Donovan, what could have been.
I'd still hate our LBs but...yes.
Or imagine if Cissoko was a functioning human being who was only mildly disappointing on the field. We could play our two "not quite the 5 stars we thought they'd be"s at corner, Woolfolk at FS, Cam Gordon at one box safety (as a HS LB I have to think he could play that role) and then a battle to the death for the last box safety spot among everyone else.
Dangerous to whom?
Linebacker and safety are still featuring walk-ons, true freshmen, reaches and busts. Only the D-Line two-deep looks anything Michigan-like at this time, and that's more like Bowman/Heuer/Rumishek/Orr Michigan-like than Woodley/Branch/Taylor/Biggs or Steele/Renes/Williams/Feazell Michigan-like.
Hell, Mo Clarrett went in the third round.
I know this was said slightly tongue-in-cheek, but Clarett was a much better and more accomplished college player than any of the other three (Warren, Snead, Williams).
In lieu of an NFL income for DW in 2010-11?