Speight vs Rudock: a statistical comparison through 7 games

Submitted by Blue Indy on

I got a lot of positive feedback from my 6 week qb comparison, so I thought I'd make it a weekly post. Data:

  RUDOCK                  
  2015 Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rat
1 Utah 27 43 62.8 279 6.5 4.3 2 3 118.7
2 OR St 18 26 69.2 180 6.9 5.2 0 1 119.7
3 UNLV 14 22 63.6 123 5.6 4.5 1 1 116.5
4 BYU 14 25 56 194 7.8 8.6 1 0 134.4
5 Maryland 16 32 50 180 5.6 4.8 1 1 101.3
6 NW 17 23 73.9 179 7.8 7.8 0 0 139.3
7 Mich St 15 25 60.0 168 6.7 6.7 0 0 116.4
    121 196 61.7 1303 6.6 5.8 5 6 119.9
  season 249 389 64.0 3017 7.8 7.7 20 9 141.5
                     
  W-L thru 6 5 2              
  SOS thru 6 24th                
  opp W-L 22- 17 56.4%            
                     
  SPEIGHT                  
  2016 Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rat
1 Hawaii 10 13 76.9 145 11.2 12.3 3 1 231.4
2 UCF 25 37 67.6 312 8.4 10.6 4 0 174.1
3 Colorado 16 30 53.3 229 7.6 8.3 1 0 128.5
4 Penn St 21 34 61.8 189 5.6 6.1 1 0 118.2
5 Wisconsin 20 32 62.5 219 6.8 6.1 1 1 124.1
6 Rutgers 6 13 46.2 100 7.7 9.2 1 0 136.2
7 Illinois 16 23 69.6 253 11.0 12.7 2 0 190.7
    114 182
62.6
1447 8.0  8.9 13 2 150.8
                     
  W-L thru 6 7 0              
  SOS thru 6 18th                
  opp W-L 26- 19 57.8%            

Last year's narrative was about the 2nd half improvement Rudock made, seemingly right after M's BYE week (which was between game 7 and 8). Only time will tell if Speight makes a similar level of improvement, but he's off to a great start statistically after his BYE improvement week, going 16-23 for 253 yds and a qb rating of 190.7! 

 
Here's to hoping the trend continues, especially against Michigan St this weekend!

Mr. Yost

October 26th, 2016 at 6:14 PM ^

He had an AWESOME game versus Illinois. His best of the year.

But he's not killing it, however, if he has a progression anything close to Rudock he's going to be freaky good down in Columbus when compared to his play earlier in the year.

Sure there are some disclaimers in that he's got a better OL and run game and hasn't done anything like @Utah on the road.

But his progression post improvement week was so encouraging that I'm all in on Speight. He went from a a guy that I just crossed my fingers and hoped he wouldn't mess things up (which he never did) to a guy who was dropping dimes all over the field, pinpoint, on time passes. I'm all in.

I feel like we should start O'Korn versus Maryland just so Speight can do more self scouting. If this is the improvement bump he gets? It'd be more than worth it if he keeps doing what he's doing (I'm kidding).

He's not killing it, but he's getting there.

Brhino

October 26th, 2016 at 2:34 PM ^

Last year State was vulnerable to the deep ball.  Every team they beat was either not smart enough or skilled enough to exploit that.  Unfortunately we played them before Rudock really got locked in.  If we had played them just a few weeks later, I really do think we would have won comfortably.  Oh well.

 

This year they're vulnerable to the everything.  It should go better.

stephenrjking

October 26th, 2016 at 2:42 PM ^

I'm on the record as being pessimistic about Speight's ability to mirror Rudock's improvement, since I feel that Rudock needed time to gain comfort in the offense and re-assert play he was already capable of, where Speight is younger and has yet to prove able to play at that level.

But his bye week comments and his performance Saturday were everything I could want. So there's hope for me.

It is interesting that this cutoff is right after the MSU game last season. Rudock was a big reason why that game was close enough to lose in the first place, stopping a number of drives that could have given us a cushion. That's his low point of the year right there.

Though it's also worth noting that in the next game Rudock got knocked out against Minnesota and Speight finished the game. We remember what happened there.

Grampy

October 26th, 2016 at 4:15 PM ^

...against Rutgers, at least a full quarter against Hawaii and Illinois, and bits and pieces against various other tomato cans.  Speight has probably played 1 to 1.5 fewer games at this point than Rudock.  He's been very good for stretches, but in Rudock's defense, I thing 2 picks for Speight is artificially low. There has been at 3-4 balls that should have been picks, but were just dropped.

Dawggoblue

October 26th, 2016 at 2:51 PM ^

I asked this last time and I don't think you responded. Where are you getting this DoS from. I'm quite confident it's not 18th in the country.

In reply to by Dawggoblue

Blue Indy

October 26th, 2016 at 3:58 PM ^

yeah, I couldn't find another site with SOS data per week, just cumulative SOS. Cumulative data is obviously fine for this season but hard to use for last season.

blueneverquits

October 26th, 2016 at 3:04 PM ^

Nice post.  One thing I think Speight has benefited from this season is excellent field position.  The combination of our excellent defense and Peppers returning punts and kicks have given Wilton short fields to work with the vast majority of the time.  Per Football Outsiders, Michigan is #1 in the country in offensive starting field position.  (In case you were wondering, MSU is #112.)

I also think he's benefitting from a better running game than we had last year.  Regardless, he's getting the job done.  The touchdown to turnover ratio is my favorite stat.

LSAClassOf2000

October 26th, 2016 at 3:06 PM ^

If I remember correctly from my reading this morning, that QB rating of 150.8 is comfortably 25th in the whole of FBS play (Logan Woodside at Toledo has a QB rating of 200.8 and is #1), but it is tied for second in the Big Ten with only Perry Hills being slightly higher at 151.8 (Speight is tied with J.T. Barrett on this stat). 

Steves_Wolverines

October 26th, 2016 at 3:12 PM ^

I don't forsee a 2nd half for Speight that compares to Rudock. Last season, we needed to rely on Rudock to move the ball. 

This year, we're so balanced it's unreal. Throw in the fact that we have games against Maryland, IU, and Iowa, which could all be over by halftime, and I don't see Speight putting up anywhere close to the numbers Rudock did. 

His passer rating will still be sky high, he just won't have the gaudy numbers to back it up. 

taistreetsmyhero

October 26th, 2016 at 4:19 PM ^

Those SOS numbers make no sense to me. Utah and Colorado are comparable if we're being generous to Colorado, BYU and PSU are comparable, MSU and Wisconsin are comparable, and NW was better than anyone else on this year's schedule so far.



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H4ILH4RB4UGH

October 26th, 2016 at 4:28 PM ^

As much as I'd love to watch us run for 400 yds against State this weekend, I hope this is the week Speight takes a leap. Jim and Wilton should be able to take advantage of MSU's terrible secondary

somewittyname

October 26th, 2016 at 4:32 PM ^

I have nothing wrong with comparing the two guys but people seem to overlook a couple things when talking about Speight making a Rudock type leap. Speight is greatly outperforming Rudock at this point in their respective seasons, as the data show. Completion % is a bit better, but most importantly INTs and Speight can actually hit a deep ball. So if Speight were to have the same relative jump in performance, that would put him in the Heisman race...

Speight isn't going to have the same relative jump in performance because the situations are completely different: RS soph who has been around and played snaps last year vs. proven grad transfer who had to learn the offense in a couple months. But Speight doesn't need a Rudock jump. He just needs the incremental improvement that you would hope out of a RS soph QB... He already has proven to be very solid, good at taking care of the ball, can make some amazing throws, and can finish games.

TL;DR: Speight doesn't need a Rudock-level jump and he's not going to have one. Holding his trajectory steady should be good enough to get us to the playoffs.

BLHoke

October 26th, 2016 at 9:29 PM ^

Let's not forget... Jake was a 5th year Senior with tons of experience. Wilton is a RS SO at the halfway point of his first season as a starter.

I'm not saying one is better than the other. I think both will have done a very good job captaining the ship during 2 of the best seasons UofM has experienced since the Carr era... But if there is an argument to be made now... Well then, I'd expect Speight to only improve and gain more poise and confidence as time goes on. I don't think it's far fetched to see him becoming the best QB in the Big Ten next year and possibly even the country. Sure his throwing motion looks a bit strange, but that's something you can deal with and overcome at the college level, especially with plenty of talent around you. Just ask Tim Tebow.



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JBE

October 26th, 2016 at 4:44 PM ^

So Speight is better than Rudock was in every statistical catergory through seven, and he's a sophomore. No bad at all.

iskey

October 26th, 2016 at 5:07 PM ^

Surprising to me to see that Rudock had double Speight's passing yards and attempts and slightly better percentage, 20:13 td's, yet still had lower qb rating. Must be the 9 interceptions to Speight's 2.

UMgradMSUdad

October 26th, 2016 at 5:23 PM ^

At least the calls to start O'Korn have died down. Speight is doing a really good job.  O'korn seems to tuck and run at the first sign of pressure, which isn't always a bad thing, but I think he overestimates his speed and what kind of yardage he can get that way.

Remembering Rudock and watching Speight this season makes me wonder if Harbaugh is less a fan of athletic ability than he is intelligence and football IQ.  Now that's just an impression, and there's not really any statistics that can prove such a claim, but whatever Harbaugh's approach, it's working. I also would not be surpised to see Speight as a round 2 or 3 NFL draft pick in a few years.

 

CoverZero

October 26th, 2016 at 5:39 PM ^

When Speight is interviewed in street clothes, you can see that he is a pretty huge guy with massive shoulders.  Physically I underestimated how muscular he actually is.  He is also very well-spoken, humble and analytical. 

allintime23

October 26th, 2016 at 7:41 PM ^

Hopefully Speight gets to the level where he is no longer compared to Rudock. I'm sorry but Rudock was an average quarterback. Speight is our best option now and continues to play smart. I know I've been hard on him during games but nobody wants him to do as well as I do. We have a special chance this year and so much is riding on Wiltons shoulders. I hope he continues to improve and keeps winning games.



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