Speculation as to potential transfers
It is well known that every coaching change leads to some attrition. Obviously, the level of exits that we saw during the RR tenure might have been dispropotionately high (but in number and in the caliber of the players leaving), but even under the best of transitions (which this is initially looking to be), some transfers are to be expected.
Looking over the roster, I am curious as to this wise community's thoughts as to who might transfer as a result of the coaching change. Not looking for any informed information - just people's unsubstantiated thoughts.
The most obvious potential transfer was Denard. For now, at least, it looks like that is less likely to happen.
IMO, I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the smaller slot / RB guys like Dileo or even V. Smith consider making a change. Smith, for example, could be a starting back on many MAC schools, but given the likely style of play, the stocked pantry at this position and the incoming Hayes, I would expect to see Smith lose his starting job.
Similarly, we might see some of the hybrid / tweener D players considering transfers, as they might not fit as well into the new "we will be big, bad, mofos" system.
Just some musings on a cold, snowy Wednesday.
P.S.: While nobody wants to see kids transfer, some attrition is not a bad thing, as I would rather see kids who do not fit the system have a chance to have playing time at other schools rather than ride the pine here for 4 years.
January 26th, 2011 at 2:27 PM ^
Based on past history, there are ALWAYS players who leave between seasons. The question this year, is how many will it be given the change in coaching staff and who? The problem is most players won't say or do anything until after spring ball. And even if they intend to leave, they often won't say anything - they'll just not come back in the summer. I can't completely blame them for not wanting to tell their teammates face to face. It's a hard decision to make for them. But if I were to speculate at all, it might be a few of the slot receivers that we have too many of. Also, it often comes down to the comfort level the individual player has with his new position coach. If there isn't a good report between the two, transfers can often occur.
Personally, I'm hoping that Hoke and his staff will do a great job selling the new system and Michigan to those players contemplating leaving to minimize the damage. Ultimately though, we only want players who want to be here.
January 26th, 2011 at 2:34 PM ^
Spring practice will give us a good idea of what the new schemes are, who will fit, and who won't. In an ideal world, they would all stay and everyone would sing Kumbaya around a nice, big campfire, but that probably isn't going to happen. Some kids don't fit into the new schemes or the plans of the coaching staffs, and some just don't feel the same after the staff that recruited them is broomed, especially if they percieve it as having been early, unfair, or both.
I refuse to predict any single player to transfer, because if I was on that team, it would piss me off to see my name on a public blog in that manner. But I am guessing that most transfers will probably come from the "slot ninja" catagory.
Another factor that can't be overlooked is that the staff probably won't try very hard to talk those who they feel won't play out of transferring. It seems like every player gets depressed enough to start thinking about it at least once, and one of the jobs of the coaching staff is to talk kids out of it. I'm guessing that if you are an upperclassman and third string, there isn't going to be any "heart to heart" talk with the head coach if you want to make his job easier.
I'm guessing that kids who don't like where things are headed after spring practice will quietly finish their classes and announce transfers the day after finals. If Hoke can keep this down to between five and seven kids in "overstocked" positions who weren't going to play much, with no high-profile players leaving, I will consider it a victory.
If they can somehow keep the Florida contingent/pipeline intact, I will consider it even more of a victory.
January 26th, 2011 at 3:44 PM ^
Smith falls down at the sight of 220lb coming at him, would leave me to believe he is the first one likely to split the scene. There is no way Hoke is starting this guy. Is everything but a "tough" runner.
January 26th, 2011 at 5:48 PM ^
I'd love to see Smith leave as well as maybe one slot WR, though I want to keep both Dileo and Gallon so it may not be feasible. I would also prefer than Brandon Gibbons and Brandon HAwthorne left the program while Leach and Watson were not invited back. I wouldn't be this cruel to force them out, but as far as what is best for UM football, these guys would ideally leave. We need depth at different positions and I want Hoke to be able to add as many guys as needed in this class and the next that fit into his program.
January 26th, 2011 at 8:32 PM ^
As you can see below I think this discussion is very relevant. However, we should never wish that any of our players are forced out or transfered. They have put their heart and souls into this program. If they aren't getting PT and have a better opportunity we should wish them well, but we should never hope they are pushed out of the program. Just not cool.
January 26th, 2011 at 8:55 PM ^
You're the dick of the week!
January 26th, 2011 at 6:15 PM ^
Everyone stays and everyone contributes! Go Blue!
January 26th, 2011 at 8:28 PM ^
I was planning on doing an almost diary-level post about this topic tonight. There is almost always more transfers after a coaching change and there are probably 8-10 players who if they transfered wouldn't surprise me. I don't think we'll have that many but there's probably that many players at risk.
The players most at risk I think are players from the South that are still in their first year or two in the program, aren't established starters yet, and probably wouldn't have had Michigan on their short list if it wasn't for RR and his coaching staff. If a player is far from home, has a coaching staff he that he has no prior connection with, and doesn't think he will get playing time I think there's a chance he goes home for the summer and decides to look somewhere else.
Once again I think the three factors will be depth chart (or perceived lack of PT), distance from home, and how many years of eligibility they have left.
So here are the guys I think are at risk to transfer, either slight or decent:
Offense: T Jones, Toussaint, Smith, D Robinson, Dileo, Galon, Gibbons, and Stokes
The only reason I put Stokes on there is that he has 2 years left if he transfers and there's a small possibility that he doesn't want to be 5th on the WR depth chart again (and don't forget he was a top 100 recruit out of high school)
Defense: Cambell, Ash, Bell, Christian, Hawthorne, M Robinson, C Johnson
Cambell was a 5-star recruit so if he finds himself on the bench again he is a flight risk. I think Robinson and Johnson would make a great starting Safety group but if they are sitting on the bench they might get antsy.
I really hope we have as little attrition as possible but if we do lose 3 or 4 guys to a transfer I think it'll be one of the guys on this list.
January 26th, 2011 at 11:26 PM ^
As long as Ricardo Miller plays for Michigan, Marvin Robinson will be here too. They are really good friends. I remember during Marvin's recruitment he mentioned Mrs. Miller as being a second mother to him.
January 27th, 2011 at 3:06 AM ^
He is a hell of a talent and the kind of athlete that you see in a lot of southern schools and I would like to see a lot more of up here.
January 27th, 2011 at 3:11 AM ^
I can't wait to see where they play.
Is Miller a TE or a WR, and is Robinson a S or a LB ?
January 27th, 2011 at 1:02 PM ^
Miller is a WR and M-Rob is a S. Marvin can play both saefty positions.
January 27th, 2011 at 3:10 AM ^
Some of the tweener guys on defense, I am guessing, will see time on special teams, and really, if they leave, they aren't going to do better than a Michigan education, which for most of these kids, there is no NFL, so this is what they are playing for. For that, leaving a Michigan degree for a MAC degree, honestly, makes no sense. I think they stay.
January 27th, 2011 at 9:39 AM ^
and that is not to say that I am not concerned about scholarship transfers. It's not the SEC but it is a musical chairs type environment for some of these guys whom we have bought into these last few years.
The CC makes opportunity slight for players who have carved a niche in positions that are being heavily recruited or schematically abandoned. The numbers of this incoming class are no doubt predicated on movement in the roster, competition and "toughness". This falls hardest on those already on the margin.
The spring game will be indicative of the change in style / opportunity for some players. To speculate until we actually see what the new system is going to be is specifically meaningless and generically anxiety provoking IMO. The guys on roster are already getting a dose of Wellman's code of training. Change is tough, but toughness is the new hard edge.
Those who stay will be champions - and those who don't will hopefully be engineers, doctors, lawyers or elsewise successful.