S&P+ Predicts Week 6 Games (including Michigan-NU)

Submitted by Eye of the Tiger on

Bear in mind the overall success rate is just above 50%.

But still nice to see S&P+ gives us an 83% chance of winning and projects a 16.5 pt. margin-of-victory.

Also nice: S&P+ predicts Navy will beat Notre Dame by 6.7.

Dawkins

October 8th, 2015 at 4:45 PM ^

What was S&P's prediction for the Utah and BYU games? 

Also, if its success rate is 50%, then why is it "nice to see" it pick us to win? Makes no sense. 

Brhino

October 8th, 2015 at 4:45 PM ^

"success rate just about 50%"

What does that mean?  Number of games in which winner is correctly picked?  Or are they going against the spread?  I hope so, because 50% straight up would be pretty miserable.

HAIL-YEA

October 9th, 2015 at 4:35 PM ^

Which is exactly what the guy just said. The pick is against the spread but the 65-11 record is just outright picks of projections in the 80-89% range. What I take out of it is they are 65-11 when picking the easier outright wins to call, but what is interesting is that they think the UM NU game is one of those easy games to call.

GoBlueNorth

October 8th, 2015 at 4:53 PM ^

So as I see this......when they project a win percentage between 80-89%, they are right 85.3% of the time.....so there's a 85.3% chance that they're right picking us to win.    Yes, no, maybe....

LSAClassOf2000

October 8th, 2015 at 5:28 PM ^

A 16-ish point win against Northwestern would be nice, I will say that. A lot of other sites - obviously, different predictive mechanisms - are actually a little more conservative in their estimate. TeamRankings, for example, has Michigan by a predicted score of 21-14 (rounded, their mean estimate was 21.2-13.8). Massey has their score prediction where some of us perhaps jokingly put it earlier in the week 10-7 in fave of Michigan.

goblue16

October 8th, 2015 at 5:34 PM ^

Navy has beaten Nd and given great Nd teams a hard time in the last 10 years. Emotional loss to Clemson and an inexperienced QB means navy has a great chance

UMProud

October 8th, 2015 at 7:51 PM ^

Michigan offense practices against the #2 (soon to be #1) offense in the nation.  They should be very afraid.  

We will be drinking mead from their broken helmets and enjoy the wailing of their wildcat women.