S&P+ Five Factors Matchup: UM at Iowa

Here's the next installation of Bill Connelly's Five Factors metrics matchup between UM & Iowa.

The "M Offense vs. IA Defense" column gauges the performance of the UM offense against the Iowa defense by either taking the product (if inversely proportional) or the ratio (if not inversely related) between those two metrics. The results are then re-scaled to the national average by dividing by or multiplying by the national average, respectively. Likewise, the "IA Offense vs. M Defense" computes the other two metrics to gauge the performance of the Iowa Offense.

From there, the column with the greater aggregate number has the competitive advantage...EXCEPT, in the three categories with asterisks: "Stuff Rate", "SD Sack Rate" and "PD Sack Rate", which are contra-metrics that gauge the offense's ability to avoid the given categorical description.

Anyway, the numbers showing the advantage are in bold, and as such it appears the matchups tilt in M's favor in every one of the Five Factors, including Turnovers. Breaking it down further, UM has the advantage in all but two sub-categories, as follows:

1. Rushing IsoPPP (rushing explosiveness, measured as pts. scored per successful rushing plays). Iowa is showing a slight advantage here, largely due to the rating of its offense (about average) compared to the M defense (wll below average). Keep in mind that since this metric considers successful plays only, it can be a bit deceiving. The net Rushing Success Rate for the Iowa offense is about 40% lower than UM (this is slightly better than Maryland last week). 
2. SD IsoPPP (standard down explosiveness, measured as pts. per successful standard down). The same as against Colorado, PSU, Wisconsin, RU, MSU, Maryland... Again, keep in mind that IsoPPP consider successful plays only, of which there are not a great number against the stout UM defense. The success rate for UM is about 70% greater than Iowa.

The IsoPPP advantages of Iowa in standard downs and rushing plays appears to be a condition of the UM Defense under Don Brown's aggressive schemes. These comparative results have been consisent since the Colorado game. As we know, the explosive plays don't occur as often as with other teams simply because the M defense is 1) particularly effective at keeping opposing offenses behind the chains, and 2) not on the field for as many plays as the M offense.

On defense, it appears that the Hawkeyes are particularly mediocre in defending against the run. Iowa ranks in the 50's in most Rushing Defense categories, but is #118 in Adjusted Line Yards and #126 in Stuff Rate. This might suggest that the M ground attack will be particularly effective in salting this game away in the second half.

On offense, the Iowa passing attack is looking quite poor, ranking no higher than #71 in any category other than Passing Down Success Rate, in which it is #56. Iowa is #109 in PD Line Yards/Carry, and #120 in PD IsoPPP. Not to mention, Iowa is #112 in Adjusted Sack Rate, as well as #114 in SD Sack Rate. I can already picture Mo Hurst rubbing his belly as he towers over a prostrate C.J. Beathard.