A social experiment: What are our chances of beating Iowa?

I'm gonna guess we go into Iowa City as 7 point underdogs and that sounds about right to me. Any idea what that means in probability? Let's say 38%.

80 - the number of an old friend who walked onto the team a few years back

I thought every team has a 50/50 chance of winning or losing. As long as the games will be played, every team has a 50/50 chance. The probability is a different story however.

Because I am going to the game, I give Michigan excellent chances of beating Iowa!

Oh, put me down for 40%

-10% for road game
-10% for our secondary
-10% for our linebackers
-20% for Iowa's front seven
+15% for Tate
+15% for Iowa's offense
+5% for our running game
+5% for Zoltan and Stonum

55%

47%

I'm going with 45%, I think their offense is a pretty good match-up for us but on the other hand their D-line might just eat us alive like they did to Penn State.

60%

The team has just suffered its first loss of the season (to a rival). Don't underestimate their desire to come out re-focused and steal a win on the road.

50%

38%

They're probably a better team and they're going to be amped up for a night game at home, but Rich Rod's spread gives us a shot against anybody in the Big Ten.

I am totally confident that we will be behind until the 4th quarter and we will come back (this will require the usual self sacrifice of the Forcier body). If we are down less than 2 TD's at the end of the 3rd quarter....it's in the bag. Brandon Graham is due for a couple of big plays. We have to have a better game defensively...I'm sure GERG will have everything hashed out this week (wink....wink...)!

With a baseline of 50%:
-10% for the Iowa defensive line
-15% for a night game in Iowa City
+15% for Tate's late game heroics
+5% for Zoltan and the special teams
-10% for the secondary
+10% for the Iowa offense.
And that comes out to a 45% chance

I think Big Blue comes in refocused, sharp, and ready.

55% towards a Win.

Molk Oline= >50%
Molk-less Oline = < 50% (Yes I know Molk is injured I mean how the line played)

In sum I think that Iowa is a very winnable game as has been shown by their almost choke jobs against Ark St and Northern Iowa. Of course you know that Iowa will be up for the Michigan game as was evidenced by when they played PSU.

Chance: 37.5%

49%

I think the MSU loss was humbling to this young team, and they will obviously take lessons from it. On the other hand, we're playing an Iowa team that has probably the best defense in the league outside of OSU. They will look to take the run away and probably succeed early. It will be interesting to see how the coaches adjust should we have early three and outs again.

Unfortunately, I don't see us winning this one. The Iowa that beat Penn State will show up, and it will be a close ball game. But I think our O-line will struggle enough and we won't keep our defense off the field enough. Just my opinion. I really hope I'm wrong.

I'd say M has 60% chance of winning

+5 b/c team has gotten first road game under belt
+5 b/c coaches will get them focused and have them ready to go
+5 b/c Iowa has more to lose
-10 b/c Iowa's D is looking pretty tough
+5 b/c RR > KF
Stanzi is a wildcard....

Our O line needs to be more effective and we need to run the ball.

I think we'll surprise some people next week!

Watching Forcier walk off the field after the interception in OT -I think he's gonna be fired up to prove the naysayers. In response the team will rally behind his efforts and pull out the upset.

I honestly feel better about our chances against Iowa than MSU. We have some experience with the road, Iowa doesn't have the same motivation to beat us as MSU and our players are young and night games are more fresh in their memories. Plus, I think that it's sort of a trap game for them since they're going to Wisconsin the next week. I say they take us lightly and Tate gets it done on saturday night for old times sake. That said, 55% chance of win.

The more I have, the better we will (seem to) do.

Since its an 8 PM game, I predict blackout.

Baseline 37% (in honor of Jarrett Irons)
-15 for OMG night road game we're SEW DEWMED.
-5 for rawk muzak (and they play Seven Nation Army which no college stadium plays ever).
+10 for Iowa softball fans scare me more than the football fans.
+5 for impending return of MINOR RAGE, and debut of DENARD RAGE.
+10 for Shonn Greene is in the NFL now (said it at the beginning of the year and I stand by it.)

The best team michigan has played so far is the team they just lost to. Let's be realistic defense is horrible and the offense has not seen a good defense.

I just feel like we are more likely to win this game than lose it.. staying optimistic

62%.