This isn't usable data obviously. Should I just put you down for 47.5% chance then?
A social experiment: What are our chances of beating Iowa?
I agree though.
I think Iowa is very unsteady -- yes they beat Penn St, but they barely beat Arkansas State.
I think Tate comes out knowing not to try to do too much (see: OT @ MSU) but knowing he CAN do whatever he wants when he wants to, and Michigan wins by about 14.
I say 60% chance when and my official prediction is:
a 40% chance to pull the upset. I think we'll win on the road this year but it will come at Memorial Stadium in Champaign where we have played exceptionally well in the last 30 years as our last loss there occurred in the mid-80s. Go Blue
50% until the game starts, at which time the variables will change based on how the game develops.
100% chance of that.
You can end your experiment now, because that is the answer.
n. 1. Overbearing pride or presumption; arrogance. 2. in Classical Athenian usage, the intentional use of violence to humiliate or degrade.
A bunch of other people are enjoying this activity.
If you don't like the thread don't post on it. It's that simple.
I hate to bring it up, but how did you get negbanged that badly?
For your signature block. Are you a Ron White fan?
Two teams = heads/tails = 50%. There is no need to make everything in life complicated.
until the game started. Then the chances reduced drastically based on what actually happened between the teams.
I am not trying to be snotty at all, but from a probability standpoint that is not the correct way of looking at the game.
For example, when a basketball player steps to the free throw line, you don't assume that he has a 50/50 chance of making it or not just because there are two outcomes, make or miss.
It is the same thing with football games, even though there are only two outcomes, win or lose, that doesn't mean the probability of both events are 50%.
So your opinion is that next weeks game is really a coin flip or do you not want to contemplate the subject?
I'll go more optimistically and say 60%. There really is no way to tell how a game like PSU-Iowa shapes out before either team plays more competition. And no, I don't mean Arkansas State.
But if we do lose, I, for one, welcome our new corn overlords.
Baseline of 50%. -20% for the fact that it's a night game at Kinnick which is known for being one of the more difficult venues in the Big Ten. +10% because I really think Tate Forcier has ice-water in his veins and I now believe him when he says he doesn't get nervous. +5% because there's no way Minor/Brown will be held in the same way they were yesterday. Thus 45%
Michigan 65%... don't know what that means, but I think we'll upset Iowa.
I'm not very optimistic of our chances, I'll say 35%.
Iowa's offense hasn't really impressed me with (excluding a 35-3 rout of Iowa St.) 17,27,21 and 24 pts (including defensive/special teams TD's like the punt block/return at PSU). If Michigan can click on offense like they did in the last 5 minutes at Sparty, we should win with a few key defensive stops. If not, we lose.
All-in-all, barring any aggravation of Tate's shoulder, I say:
40%, just because Angry Michigan Hating God will deflect Tate's otherwise-gamewinning pass...
Put me down for 60%. I'm a homer, but at least I'm honest about it!
I pretty much agree with your take on M's season. I felt that if they could beat ND, they would have a decent season. I'm hoping 8-4 instead of 7-5. For the rest of the season, my guess is losses to Iowa, Wisconsin and either Penn State or Ohio State. That would make them 8-4.
I'd group the games as follows
(Team) (WinLikelihood) (SagarinRating)
Top Tier Big10
@Iowa 35% (9)
PSU 40% (18)
tUOS 40% (8)
@Wiscy 40% (23) (away game at upper mid-tier)
Lower (to Mid) Tier B10
@Ill 70% (91) --note: the Illini's 3 blowout losses have all come to Top 30 Sagarin teams
Purd 70% (82) --note: two of Purd's 4 losses have been cliffhangers vs Top 30 Sagarin teams
Mid Tier FBS
DelSt 99.44% (177)
The season expectation comes to 8-4 (7.95 wins unrounded)
I will make use of all of these numbers. Thanks.
I believe that 50% of the teams on the field in Iowa City next Saturday will perform better than the other half.
answer correctly based on statistical probability 6 days before the event, and not based upon your emotion and opinion.
All sorts of independent variables can influence the predicted probability of an outcome. You could easily create a regression model with win or lose (0 or 1) as a categorical outcome and plug in any variety of predictors (e.g., points per game, points allowed per game, % upper classmen on team, road record during past three years, opponent's record) to forecast a probability. People here are not relying on logistic regression but rather just guessing. Because it's fun. What's the issue?
This is spot on. Remind me to hire blublooded the next time I need something explained.
+1 from me for all serious answers. Thanks folks.
Was a self-described "social experiment," was it not? Aren't some of us just bound to be smart alecks, no matter what?
Have at it. I am certainly not negging any responses.
Baseline 50% (i.e. I have no friggin' clue)
-20% for the lackluster performance through 52 minutes last week.
-20% because Iowa's defense can be scary in a game they care about.
+20% because Tate's ice water-coursing veins can negate Iowa's D.
+10% because I can't believe the coaches won't remind the rest of the team that Tate can't be expected to carry them every week (mercy, that's a lot of double negatives).
After his miscue this weekend, Zoltan will play with fire (and possibly lasers) in his eyes. He won't rest until he drinks the blood of every man, woman and child in Iowa City. 100% chance this will occur.
The game, on the other hand, could probably go either way, but I'd put our chances at around 60% considering Iowa's offensive struggles and my belief that our own offense will operate a little more crisply now that they have a tough road game under their belts.
I think we have a good shot if we avoid the mistakes we've made in the last two weeks. Iowa hasn't looked impressive except against Penn State.
That being said, they're playing at home, Ferentz is a good coach and they have an excellent defense.
With Molk, 45%
With Molk, at home, 60%
The Molk injury was more significant to the offense than I originally thought. At this point I think that he is the 2nd most valuable player on offense.
I agree, and the most valuable player not currently on the offense. ;~)
I have not seen Iowa play a whole lot this year but they seem like a pretty good team. They came on strong in the second half of last year and are continuing ther momentum this year. They looked really tough against Penn State at Happy Valley, have a decent quarterback abd have some experienced players. On the other hand, how do you explain their lackluster performances against Arkansas State and Iowa State? They seem inconsistent at times. I give Michigan a punchers chance. My guess as to M's chance to win: 40%.
I think Michigan executes on offense better and Tate will keep them in the game. Anything can happen in the 4th and the squad should be fired up in general - I'm saying 55% chance.
That's right. I think this team plays like they have something to prove.
72% is a great call. Just out of curiosity, did the number 72 just come to you or does it hold a special significance?
It just came to me man.
I feel it.
I consider 72 to be the luckiest number there is (as I have stated before) and I might have to take this as a sign. I now feel that my 30% prediction may be a tad low but I guess I claimed it and should stick with it. Flip-flopping is bad karma after all. ;~)
Obviously it's just a guess, but I expect us to play better next week. When I think of the first half last year at PSU, I realize that if properly prepared for a game, this team can compete with anyone.
Road game, at night, tough D, I see a likely loss.
55%, I think the boys bounce back in a pretty tough environment, especially at night.
I'd put it at 55%. We are going to be fired up. All of the worries of first game jitters, etc., will be shored up. Iowa' Kinnick Stadium isn't as loud as Spartan Stadium against UM. Iowa isn't as good as their record, and might be spent from their big win a week ago.
Anything can happen but looking realistically going into the game doesn't look good for us. 33%
I am not buying into Iowa, at least not yet.
20% - Unfortunately I think @Iowa will be eerily similar to this past game against Sparty. I have a very hard time seeing our offensive line establishing the run game against a DL that is much better than MSU's
...which is approximately twice as much of a chance as MSU had of beating UM this year.
It depends on which Iowa team shows up next week: the one that made PSU look like an FCS team, or the one that struggles with FCS teams. This is a strange year so far; maybe UM can help it get stranger.
Nice round number there. I hope you don't mind if I round it a bit more?
Edit: Also just noted the 2 to the right of the 7 in your number. The karma is building!
point spread. then you could more directly compare with Vegas and any other expert prediction. though i really like the idea of harnessing the masses. and since i've been passing this link around b/c it's very interesting and useful in this context:
provides the chances a team wins outright based on the vegas line. so you could at least use your results to convert back to a point spread.
and since you asked: 30%
I am no statistical wizard but thanks for the suggestions. I only see point spreads from a gambling perspective. Winning/Losing is real world and is what really matters. Maybe the data could be used further by someone so inclined though.
are a means of expressing a probability that make sense given that points are the currency of wins and losses. Similarly, contemporary baseball sabermetrics does its best to assign run values (and therefore win values), maintaining a particular baseline to measure against, to events and player performance. VORP, por ejemplo, stands for Value Over Replacement Player and is denominated in runs.
point spreads are a lot less abstract than %chance of winning if you're talking about a single game played.
Ahh, but I am just trying to get a general idea of how people feel at this point in the season by having them equate their feelings with whole numbers between 1-99 inclusive. Apples and oranges.
It's all going to depend on the state-of-mind of the team. There were some serious mental errors on the field Saturday (dropped passes, Mesko what?!, O-line play), that need to be analyed and dealt with. I actually thought the D played pretty well all things considered. Iowa doesn't have an offense that is overwhelming and I continue to seem some improvement in the defense (except for tackling).
It depends on which Michigan shows up, but also on which Iowa shows up. Iowa almost lost to Northern Iowa and Arkansas State, but managed to beat Penn Sate, so they're pretty inconsistent. If Michigan can establish their running game and Tate plays like he usually does, we should have a chance, but I think Iowa will win.
I am looking forward to this weeks UFER to get a better understanding of what really went on during the game. The outcome was as I expected but the way it panned out really surprised me.
Right now I am 80% Iowa
I will mark this as 20% chance of a Michigan win then.
35%. I don't think Iowa's quite as good as advertised, but I'm not sure if we're the team to expose them. Maybe.
Based on last week, Iowa is throughly better than Penn State, beating them on the road. Since most of us thought before the season that PSU and OSU would be more competitive but still losses, Iowa on the road has replaced PSU for me as one of two games I think we won't win. But 35% is a huge relief, last year I would given us 1%
our offense is light years better than theirs. the line is just wrong imo. i'll give them points for home field, but that's it. they will need a special effort on D to win this game. we just can't afford to beat ourselves like last week. i think if you play this game under regular conditions at night at iowa, this michigan team wins 3/4 times. so... 75%.
if you're that certain the line is wrong.
I say the teams are evenly matched, our emotional need for a win matches their home-field advantage, and +5% added for my Michigan bias.
80%...we are 4-1...80% chance of winning
Iowa will see some speed and wrinkles they haven't experienced this season. They will be thinking we are not that great.
We now have something to prove. Minor was non-existant against the spartoons and we couldn't move the ball. Many of our weaknesses to this point were exposed more boldly than earlier in the season, but our deep pass coverage was not too bad.
Our staff now has a true benchmark of where this team is and where to go from here. The ND game, although important, was not a good indicator of the status of the team, MSU was.
It will be a good week of practice and I think RR really likes night games. Percentage: 74%. If it was surgery I'd be terrified. It's football. Go Blue!
Spread "like" teams give Iowa a run for their money. I think we are going to surprise Iowa early on and its going to be them making adjustments at halftime.
63 percent chance we win.
The Iowa offense is a very typical Iowa offense so I guess you could say less than impressive but fundamentally sound. The D seems to be the strength of the team as is typical for them. I think PSU was over-rated (at least a little bit anyway) so I don't think that the win over them is totally impressive. Keep in mind that Joe Pa lost 9 in a row to Lloyd and 7 out of the last 8 to Ferentz. LC and KF just seem to have old Joe Pa's number. I definitely think that MSU played above themselves to get the win against us and barely eeked out the win. all of that being said I think 60% chance of a UM win.
I'm going with 45%
I would give us a 60%-65% chance if Molk was healthy, but we just haven't been able to run the ball without him so I'm going with 45%.
I'd say 70%, but a large part of that is (a) the fact that I just bought tickets and thus have made a decent investment; (b) I can't go on a 7+ hour road trip without hope that we are going to win... The self-delusion starts NOW.
That's quite the vehicle you have to make a 7 hour road trip from Tokyo.
First, factor in TEHIR chances of starting out 6-0 (inluding a win over UM).
Second, factor in Home Vs Road team records.
Third, factor in the night game atmosphere.
Fourth, factor in UM's second roadie in a row--road experience is now a plus.
Factor in Tate's health. I think he's hurting, and had UM won yesterday, I believe Iowa would have been given the Wosconsin '07 treatment: we'd have see a lot of Denard and possibly Sheridan against the Hawkeyes. But this game now looms pretty large in the grand scheme of PLEASE MAKE A BOWL.
I'd say UM's chances are 56%.
I hereby nominate myself for Wuss Pick of the Week®
65%. We got that first road game under our belt, I don't think Iowa has as much skill as did MSU and pink locker rooms have never scared me.
I think we will have a decent shot. I dont know if Iowa will be ready for a spread offense.
Iowa just seems too good this year (as all my iowa friends tell me)
i think we will always get about the same w/ our defense. many shaky plays with a few clutch stops.
i'm looking for a WR to step up as a go-to guy for Tate. he's doing an excellent job of getting it all over the field to different guys, but we need someone to emerge as a guy the defense of Iowa has to game plan for.
i think we'll have a good chance of beating Iowa. I don't think we will get blown out, it's a matter of making enough plays to stay toe to toe.
as rittenberg noted, I'm not betting against Tate. he'll make his mistakes, but he wants each game so badly that he'll make a lot of great plays.
as a side note, i'm hoping Tate's prowess as a clutch passer will intrigue some big stud outside receivers to come in to be his go-to-guy down the line.
That is a lot of thought process there. Does it make you focus on any particular number? Say between 1-99?
It totally depends if we wear white pants or not.
what's the latest on white pants anyway?
I'm gonna guess we go into Iowa City as 7 point underdogs and that sounds about right to me. Any idea what that means in probability? Let's say 38%.
the regression formula from the link is %Chance of Winning =
7 points translates to about 30%
So I will put you down for 30% then?
80 - the number of an old friend who walked onto the team a few years back
I thought every team has a 50/50 chance of winning or losing. As long as the games will be played, every team has a 50/50 chance. The probability is a different story however.
Because I am going to the game, I give Michigan excellent chances of beating Iowa!
Oh, put me down for 40%
-10% for road game
-10% for our secondary
-10% for our linebackers
-20% for Iowa's front seven
+15% for Tate
+15% for Iowa's offense
+5% for our running game
+5% for Zoltan and Stonum
I'm going with 45%, I think their offense is a pretty good match-up for us but on the other hand their D-line might just eat us alive like they did to Penn State.
The team has just suffered its first loss of the season (to a rival). Don't underestimate their desire to come out re-focused and steal a win on the road.
They're probably a better team and they're going to be amped up for a night game at home, but Rich Rod's spread gives us a shot against anybody in the Big Ten.
I am totally confident that we will be behind until the 4th quarter and we will come back (this will require the usual self sacrifice of the Forcier body). If we are down less than 2 TD's at the end of the 3rd quarter....it's in the bag. Brandon Graham is due for a couple of big plays. We have to have a better game defensively...I'm sure GERG will have everything hashed out this week (wink....wink...)!
With a baseline of 50%:
-10% for the Iowa defensive line
-15% for a night game in Iowa City
+15% for Tate's late game heroics
+5% for Zoltan and the special teams
-10% for the secondary
+10% for the Iowa offense.
And that comes out to a 45% chance
I think Big Blue comes in refocused, sharp, and ready.
55% towards a Win.
Molk Oline= >50%
Molk-less Oline = < 50% (Yes I know Molk is injured I mean how the line played)
In sum I think that Iowa is a very winnable game as has been shown by their almost choke jobs against Ark St and Northern Iowa. Of course you know that Iowa will be up for the Michigan game as was evidenced by when they played PSU.
I think the MSU loss was humbling to this young team, and they will obviously take lessons from it. On the other hand, we're playing an Iowa team that has probably the best defense in the league outside of OSU. They will look to take the run away and probably succeed early. It will be interesting to see how the coaches adjust should we have early three and outs again.
Unfortunately, I don't see us winning this one. The Iowa that beat Penn State will show up, and it will be a close ball game. But I think our O-line will struggle enough and we won't keep our defense off the field enough. Just my opinion. I really hope I'm wrong.
I'd say M has 60% chance of winning
+5 b/c team has gotten first road game under belt
+5 b/c coaches will get them focused and have them ready to go
+5 b/c Iowa has more to lose
-10 b/c Iowa's D is looking pretty tough
+5 b/c RR > KF
Stanzi is a wildcard....
Our O line needs to be more effective and we need to run the ball.
I think we'll surprise some people next week!
Watching Forcier walk off the field after the interception in OT -I think he's gonna be fired up to prove the naysayers. In response the team will rally behind his efforts and pull out the upset.
I honestly feel better about our chances against Iowa than MSU. We have some experience with the road, Iowa doesn't have the same motivation to beat us as MSU and our players are young and night games are more fresh in their memories. Plus, I think that it's sort of a trap game for them since they're going to Wisconsin the next week. I say they take us lightly and Tate gets it done on saturday night for old times sake. That said, 55% chance of win.
The more I have, the better we will (seem to) do.
Since its an 8 PM game, I predict blackout.
Baseline 37% (in honor of Jarrett Irons)
-15 for OMG night road game we're SEW DEWMED.
-5 for rawk muzak (and they play Seven Nation Army which no college stadium plays ever).
+10 for Iowa softball fans scare me more than the football fans.
+5 for impending return of MINOR RAGE, and debut of DENARD RAGE.
+10 for Shonn Greene is in the NFL now (said it at the beginning of the year and I stand by it.)
The best team michigan has played so far is the team they just lost to. Let's be realistic defense is horrible and the offense has not seen a good defense.
I cannot wait to hit my 20 Mgo points so I can Troll back to Negbang your redundant buckeye small-Face.
Anyways, everyone here knows what needs to be done physically. Execute and intimidate. Mentally they need to concentrate,focus-power just like Daniel Son. Is Tate similar to Daniel son? Yes. 77.5% they win.
I just feel like we are more likely to win this game than lose it.. staying optimistic