So this is year three, is it matching your predictions from three years ago?

Submitted by iawolve on

Since we are sitting five games into year three, I think we have a pretty good read on what this team has become or is going to be from here on out. I remember all the predictions from when we first brought on RR as the head coach and was wondering how our progress is matching where you thought it would be good or bad. The offense has definitely surpassed anything that I thought as reasonable and I can't be more pleased. However, even after the year one defensive meltdown and the subsequent Shafer firing, I for sure thought we could at least be a middling B10 defense by now as opposed to a bottom dwelling defense in the B10.

So MGoBoard, which one of you is looking like a genius and which were way off (and I am not talking about revised predictions you just made before the start of this year, I want the RR is hired before our bowl game with Florida predictions).

Tacopants

October 4th, 2010 at 1:05 PM ^

If we look at year 3 in a vacuum it seems alright.  I sort of envisioned us with a Death Star offense studded with multiple thermal exhaust ports as defensive lapses...

mejunglechop

October 4th, 2010 at 1:06 PM ^

The offense is way ahead and the defense is even further behind. That's not to say the defense we have currently should be playing better than they are (linebackers excepted). The reason we're behind on defense is attrition and that wasn't foreseeable 3 years ago.

jmblue

October 4th, 2010 at 2:16 PM ^

I definitely would not have expected us to be starting a secondary consisting of three freshmen, a sophomore former walk-on, and a senior who'd never played before.  We're basically in the worst-case scenario (lots of attrition, a guy leaving early for the NFL, a guy getting injured) in the secondary.  Having said that, the staff needs to be more careful about recruiting academically borderline guys.  We've unfortunately gotten burned too much.   

Yooper

October 4th, 2010 at 1:07 PM ^

I think everyone will agree that the offense is as hoped but the defense is shockingly bad and not improving as yet.  Does anyone think that high-powered spread offenses make it less likely that you will have a great defense?

M-Wolverine

October 4th, 2010 at 1:13 PM ^

Because my view will probably vary greatly if we go 5-7 or 12-0 (or somewhere in between).

Because there were a whole lot of people even after year 1 who were saying "ok, this is the Rich jump year, where we go to 9-3, then 2010 is where we put it all together. National Championships from 2011 till the end of time".  

We're not quite there yet. Unless we do go 12-0 this year.  Hey, at least it's still mathematically possible. Got to like that after 5.

jrt336

October 4th, 2010 at 1:25 PM ^

I guess we're slightly worse than I'd thought we would be. Our D is unbelievably bad. They are more awful than our offense is good.

NateVolk

October 4th, 2010 at 1:32 PM ^

When Rich was hired, I made the Jimmie Johnson to the Cowboys comparison from 89. Johson took over a bloated past it's prime organization caught in a bit of a time warp, ticked everyone off, catered to no veteran star, worked the guys like maniacs in practice  rebuilt the roster with a completely different emphasis on speed, and took a serious pounding from gleeful opponents and the media for a year or two.

Year 3 they started to exact a pound of flesh and were knocking on the door, but with obvious weaknesses especially defensively and overall lack of experience.  11-5.

Year 4-- Won it all.  Everyone said their defense was the weak link before that year too. Those young guys from year 3 matured into players in year 4. (Now if we could only trade for Charles Haley.)

Things change fast when you have a program run by a guy who knows every step to follow and  young talented committed players. The leaps can be quantum from year to year.  Maybe that is what we are seeing happen right now?

I didn't want to wait a few years, but who does? But I had no doubt it would get there and still don't.  Saturday's result isn't going to change the landing spot.

evenyoubrutus

October 4th, 2010 at 1:48 PM ^

I don't think anyone could have predicted as many guys leaving the program (particularly in the seconday) for reasons so unknown, and if they did I would cite an old saying about broken clocks...

Tater

October 4th, 2010 at 5:23 PM ^

...but two years later.  I thought 9-4 would be a good first year, but it is looking like this will finally be the year they get back to nine wins. 

Like most Michigan fans, I was blindsided by the incompetence at the QB  position.  Last year would have been much better if Tate hadn't been injured, but it still comes down to not having enough competent bodies at the position.

Thankfully, though, Denard has suddenly become God, Forcier has either gotten better or at least gotten healthy, DG has grown faster than expected, and there are now three QB's on the team who are better than any option RR had any of the last two years except four games of pre-injury Forcier. 

I still think this team will compete for National Championships soon.  For now, it depends on how fast the defense grows and if one or two recruits can have an impact on that side of the ball next year.

stmccoy

October 4th, 2010 at 5:34 PM ^

I am pretty shocked by how bad the defense has gotten.  I understand everything that has gone on but I am younger and have never gone through anything like the last two seasons.  I am pretty optimistic and I think Rod can turn things around on the defensive side of the ball but I have to admit that watching them can be the most frustrating thing in my life sometimes.  That said, DRob has surpassed any of my wildest expectations.  I thought this offseason that if he could improve his passing to average he would be a force.  I did not expect him to be the best player in the country after five games. 

rtsannes62992

October 4th, 2010 at 6:25 PM ^

It's actually right about where I thought we would be record wise.  I highly doubt anyone expected a player like Denard and our defense to underachieve so much but still my expectation was year three under Rod is when we were going to start being competitive again.

6tyrone6

October 4th, 2010 at 9:01 PM ^

was a slow turn around, took a good team and threw it out to transform the program into a MACHINE. Fisrt year VERY BAD, nest year bad, then dramatice turnaround, then 5 years of better year end rankings than UM (this UM) with lesser, FAR lesser talent if you look at Rivals and Scout Star rankings. He probably averagre 2 star players while UM averaged 4 stars during those year and WVU ranked higher than UM consistantly. So here we are year three and he is right on track. The upside at UM with what will start to be 4 star talent will be unbelieveable. This Denard is here and so will the next Denard and the next 4-5 stars offensive spread stars and those defenders who want to play on the decades best team.

johnvand

October 4th, 2010 at 9:17 PM ^

We're about a year behind where I thought we'd be.  I'm sure most of that was "The helmet alone wins us 7 games."

I was thinking 7-5 in 2008, 9-3 in 2009, 10-2/11-1 in 2010.

Looks like we're about a year behind.  

Offense looks absolutely awesome, and if we can find a Noel Divine it's over because our Pat White is better than Pat White.

Compliment Sandwich:

Good - QB and WR development appear to be fantastic.

Bad - The defense is horrible, and I really question all the hires RR has made on that side of the ball.  If all his WVU buddies know is the 3-3-5 then go find a 3-3-5 coordinator and stop trying to stuff a square peg in a round hole.  Or get a DC you really trust and let him pick a staff.  Either way, get it fixed, there's no excuse for this at Michigan.  

Good - This is one of the best offensive lines I've ever seen.

yossarians tree

October 4th, 2010 at 9:20 PM ^

Defense is not good (breaking news!) but I do believe they are playing an extremely conservative style of D that is basically: "Keep them in front of you, don't give up a big play, our offense is unstoppable and we are mereley managing the game in order to WIN the game."

It will be interesting ( or possibly freightening ) to see how they adapt to agame that they feel is slipping away from them. Will the kids in the back 7 be ready to make a key stop.

That is honestly the kindest assessment I can make of our D.