So... who ya got tomorrow?
How do we fare tomorrow? Here's a bit of a breakdown on the two teams:
Florida's Road: (29-7 - Kenpom - 1st)
W vs. Northwestern State - (Kenpom - 140th)
W vs. Minnesota - (Kenpom - 20th)
W vs. Florida Gulf Coast - (Kenpom - 89th)
Florida has had one of the easier roads to the Elite Eight. The knock on Florida is that they play in the weakest major conference in college basketball. They are Kenpom's favorite team, so if you trust in that ranking, we may be in some trouble. They beat Wisconsin, but also lost to K-State and split with Arkansas.
Michigan's Road: (29-7 - Kenpom - 7th)
W vs. South Dakota State - (Kenpom - 104th)
W vs. VCU - (Kenpom - 16th)
W vs. Kansas - (Kenpom - 10th)
Michigan's loss to Penn State and drubbing by Michigan State were the only real embarrasments of the season. Propensity to slack for the first 10 minutes of a game may put them in a hole. Naismith winner in Trey Burke. Top flight center in McGary. Weapons like GRIII and THJ could have honestly been the focal point of our team at any point in the past 15 years.
I think that we win this game if either THJ or GRIII shows up at all. I wish THJ got more touches per game, as he always seems to hit his shots. Blasphemy, but I'd rather he take a game winning shot than Burke. It just seems like he never misses. I don't see anyone on Florida that scares me like I did with Kansas. The Puppy is going to get his again. I think that we are not seeing a hot stretch from McGary, only seeing him achieve his average potential. He's a solid, solid player. Very skilled. It's a testament to how good this team is that either GRIII or Stauskas is our least valuable starter, when they'd both be 1-2 options in past years.
Michigan will make it to the championship game, easy.
Syracuse just dismantled a team that went 4-0 against Michigan and MSU.
Nothing is easy at this point.
I get the sentiment, but if Wichita State wins it all, I promise I will castrate myself with a spoon.
pain.
Took the words right out of my mouth. I'm about as pessimistic as they come, but last night's game was the toughest challenge of the entire tournament IMO.
Even if I tried to doubt this team right now I couldn't logically do it.
I had VCU and Kansas over Michigan, and I'm not going to mess with a good thing.
71-67 Florida.
at this point, burke will not let us lose
MICHIGAN, FERGODSAKES!
Michigan FTW, yeah, we will win.
Gators will try and press us and last time I checked, we're pretty damn good against the press, so I hope Fla presses the shit out of us and if so, we may just blow them out of the building.
Look who we have played all year compared to them, including the tourney.
Not.Even.Close.
So what games do you watch when THJ hits almost all of his shots? Yes, he is a good player. I love him, but the man is very incosistent in shooting. Sometimes he catches fire but only sometimes. He does a lot of good things for the team when he isn't scoring. I just don't understand how you can think he is such a hot scorer with the way he plays.
Kansas had almost a week to prepare for it; Florida has roughly 36 hours.
Michigan over Syracuse. Michigan over Duke
My sense is this is a game that somebody wins by not losing it.
If Michigan can stick to their game plan and not make mistakes, then Michigan wins this.
What I saw last night was a scrappy, athletic Florida team. They took FGCU out of their game and forced a lot of turnovers. If Michigan resists being turned*, Michigan wins this.
* * *
* For some reason I have in my mind the 1990 NCAA tournament loss by Michigan to Pepperdine. Pepperdine was one of those run-n-gun teams, and Michigan thought they could out-Pepperdine Pepperdine. The score was something ridiculous, and in the end Michigan just couldn't match Pepperdine at its own game.
It was Loyala Marymount, not Pepperdine and the score was 149-115, I hated that game. They couldn't miss from the 3 all game and ran us out of the building.
You're right ... one of them darn California teams. :-)
I remember watching that game and screaming at the TV -- "Stop it! You can't run with them! Play your effin' game, damn it ..."
I think every M fan was yelling at the TV during that game, I remember having a headache that day. I was also wishing they would stop running with Loyola, who was riding the momentum of playing for Hank Gathers after his death.
Alas, Rumeal was not the PG that Trey is, although he was solid, just not on Trey's level.
Maybe ... and it shows the difference between Fisher and Beilein. Fisher didn't have control over his team (my opinion), while Beilein does (evidence suggests).
Not that Ufer would have called basketball, but it sure would have been special if he did last night.
I was thinking about this while I was at the gym. On one hand, I don't want to play a system defense that takes a specific formula to beat. On the other hand, the last time we played a team like that, we had our most dominant performance of the season. I think we could systematically beat Syracuse. I think we would get in front of Marquette and they wouldn't be able to come back against a non-mid-major team. I'm still kind of torn, but I think we would win that matchup either way. Honestly, I'm just worried about Florida.
Mitch McGary continues to be amazing. Puts in 19 pts and snags 15 rebounds
Gonzaga got a 1-seed largely due to margin of victory. I'm not saying that I think w/l is a great indicator of future performance, but I think there are other variables that counteract Florida's MOV.
I don't like making predictions when there's this much on the line, but lets just say after last night that I like our chances.
Is Florida the team that has never won a single-digit game this season? I think it was them. If so, I'll feel pretty good if it goes down to the wire.
and he's pretty scared for tomorrow. I think he should be.
Michigan mentioned that it felt like a road game last night...which way does the crowd go tomorrow?
It may depend on the KU fans, since they bought a ton of tickets. My guess is it will be pretty neutral overall, or possibly slightly pro-UM.
So I gotta go with Florida. Wait, this is basketball?
As I stated before the tournament started, I am not going to partake in objectivity this tournament. As long as Michigan is still playing, I am predicting them to win.
As for the basketball end, Florida looked brilliant at beating BYU last year in the Sweet Sixteen, but then their guards choked against Butler. They clanged so many shots that it made me think I was listening to 1980's industrial music. The team is a year older and a year wiser; if it was anybody but Michigan, I'd say Florida will win. But I don't think they have the horses to keep up with Michigan.
As the tournament unfolds, Michigan looks more and more like a "team of destiny." They are young and are peaking at the right time. They have the element of urgency, knowing that Trey is gone after this year. When things like last night happen, it can change everybody. Even, for example, Nik Stauskas could get caught up in the vibe, and start throwing down threes like he did at the beginning of the year.
I really don't think anyone wants to play Michigan right now.
getting going again would seal the deal.
Florida and Michigan are oddly similar in some respects, when you look at some of the advanced metrics. For example, we average 64 possessions per game, where Florida averages 62, and where we average 1.17 points per possession, Florida is not far behind at 1.14. Our floor percentage is slightly better than theirs (57.8% to 56.2%), as is our assist / turnover ratio (1.55 to 1.32). Florida has a better block percentage (6.4% to our 4.8%), but our turnover percentage is markedly better (14.4% to their 17.7%). Rebounding percentages, both offensive and defensive, are within 1-2% of one another too.
That being said, I really do like our chances - statistically, Florida is a rather even matchup on paper. Further, as others mentioned, the closer this one is, the worse Florida seems to do. Especially in a game that comes down to a couple possessions, I like our chances then.
I had an all B1G final four. Last weekend, it was pure genious. Now, not so much. But I am sticking with Michigan as the champion.