landing spot. will be interesting to see how he does.
That's Clubber Lang to u son.
Well, if he doesn't meet RR's record in the first three years, he shouldn't get any more years.
about 90% of the time
Only if you're rounding down from 100
1st year - Get Denard to stay. Pick up a few recruits like Frost and Zettel. Convince everyone to stay as well. Have a top 50 defense. Top 30 offense. Win 6+ games. Get to a bowl and win it.
2nd year - Top 20 recruiting class. No violations with the NCAA. Top 30 defense. Top 15 offense. Get 8+ wins. Get to a New Years Day bowl and win it.
3rd year - Top 10 recruiting class. Top 10 defense. Top 10 offense. Win 10+ games. Go to the Rose Bowl. (Doesn't have to win in order for it to be successful)
If we have a top 30 defense then we damn well better win more then 6 games. that should be at least 10 with a shot at the NC game. I believe 8 or 9 wins. I'm more worried about a few years down the road, when he gets his recruits in here.
I said top 50 defense and win 6+ games.
"I'm more worried about a few years down the road, when he gets his recruits in here."
yes bc rr did such a great job of recruiting lol
Hoke's recruiting classes to be as good as Lloyds, for whatever that is worth, if not marginally better. The key will be getting those recruits to play up to their potential and putting them in a position to be successful.
Why should we expect Hoke's recruiting to be better than Lloyd's? What evidence is there to suggest that a rookie B10 coach will out-recruit someone who won a national championship at Michigan?
We only win 6 games next year I will consider 2011=2008.
We should win our first 6. Not 6 total... we can legit take a look at going 8-0 with the schedule we have.. Beating ND and MSU will be HUGE for Hoke.
Also, how interesting is the game on 9/24...
I said 6+ games.
That;'s kind of like saying 0+ though unless you're willing to specify how many wins <6 we will have.
Given the question they were answering, I read it as "if we don't win at least 6 games, Hoke will not meet expectations for next year"
Make it stop!! Make it stop!! I can't handle football talk right now... I'm too excited :(
Why lower the expectations? Unless there are many transfers and complete blowout on the recruiting class this year.
We already have 12 commits, if we can add a few of the key players than the Recruting class should be fine.
RR was expected to win 9 games next year, why should that be any less. BH was hired with the assumption he will adapt to his talent. Now with a focus on defense that should mean atleast that many wins.
A 9 win season should lead to atleast a Top 10 class as Michigan has done in the past. M along with OSU are the two premiere Big Ten Programs. So that should be doable especially if the stories about BH being a good recruiter are true.
So we should not lower expecations, unless things start to fall apart. Lowered expectations means that we are not holding this coach to the same standard we did for RR.
It is extremely difficult to have a top ten offense and defense in a major conference. The truth is, in terms of yards, Auburn the national champion did not meet all of your goals for Hoke's first year. (not a top 50 defense in yards per game)
dat cuz da SEsee is da bezt.
Sorry double post, I am getting use to my iPad still.
Next week - Keep Devin Gardner and Denard Robinson!!!
Next month - Keep the 12 recruits we have and maybe add Bryant, Lucien, Rawls (if he qualifies) and a quarterback for depth.
This fall - 7 wins, one of which better be over State or OSU.
Very well written!
I believe RR would have won 9 games next year had he stayed. Not saying RR is great or not. We had an easier schedule and a maturing team. Therefore, fair or not, I want BH to keep Denard, salvage this recruiting class, win 9 games, and beat either OSU or MSU. That is the minimum expectation I have, because that is what I believe we would have had. Long term, who knows whether DB is a genius or goat. But that's my criteria.
...I think is reasonable. If he leaves, we'll have a redshirt freshman QB, probably no difference-maker at RB, and a defense that still has a long way to go, so 6-6 would be good.
From what I heard about Mike Cox in the offseason, people were saying he was the best athlete at RB, I think he can be really good for us. Fitz and Hopkins should be good better in a more traditional offense. I think RB will be a strength for us next year.
Why no mention of Shaw?
I dunno why I left him out. He could thrive and have the breakout senior year. I think we have kinda seen what we will get out of him, good but not great player. He seems to get banged up and never be at 100% though, I think he might be Carlos Browns clone.
with rr next year, but I have little enough faith in the defensive staff to believe we would NOT have beaten msu with rr here unless he had been able and willing to scrap his entire defensive staff. Unfortunately, I believe the rumor that he could not get a great dc to come here because he never would have asked anyone but casteel, who was not interested.
If he could have gotten a new defensive staff, and not interfered, I think he should have gotten more time. I think he proved he was a great oc who was unable to help the other 2/3 of his team.
Why does everyone always say the special teams were a nightmare because of RichRod? He was here for 3 years and 1 of those years we had arguably the best special teams units in the B10. Is it any wonder why special teams suffered this past year when we had injury issues and depth issues? Can you imagine if just half of the freshmen and sophomores who were either starting or on the 2 deep could have been on our special teams units this year?
I think as long as Hoke gets the defense to a medeocor (sp?) level, and a kicker. we can run the table and bring home the 2011 title!!!!
And can you pass me some Kool Aid? I want to be in as good a mood as you are.
14-0 EVERY. DAMN. YEAR!!!
What was the emo whine post? I posbang you every time I see you to bring you back from Bolivia.
inspired me to edit my sig.
fwiw I think Brians been pretty emo himself lately...there I SAID IT!!!
If I could have commented on his Hoke posts yesterday, I would have said the same thing. (please no banhammer...please?)
But having been an RR supporter to the end, I feel his pain to some extent. That said, my favorite things about Rod - his dedication to the players, the team, and the University - are also my favorite things about Hoke. And while it is a little annoying that Hoke seems to have the undying love of all the people who tried so hard to drive Rod from the program, hopefully that fact will make this transition much easier. And emo Brian will disapper with wins and Denard's smile in a winged helmet.
The only problem is that the first game isn't for eight months. We can't take eight months of emo Brian.
Is there any possibility of a point reprieve from where you are? Or will it just be the constant chipping of the cell walls that will shawshank your FuManButt outta there?
This coming year and especially 2012, assuming all of the vital pieces stay, should be 8+ win seasons. I think we'll really know where the program is headed in Hoke's third year because he'll be losing a lot of pieces from both sides of the ball after the 2012 season. Success will be relative at that point, but if he's at a place where he can reload instead of rebuild by year four, then he's probably here for the long haul.
I'll be content with focusing on 2011 for now, though.
Probably waiting for awhile. He has been here two days? Let him finish recruiting, talking to current players, installing a S&C plan, and then decide any reasonable expectations.
No, that's too slow and rational of an approach and is UNACCEPTABLE. We must all make snap judgements today on what will happen 3 years from now so we can be proven correct over time. We have no time to wait since the season is less than 8 months away.
February 1st - have salvaged the recruiting class, so he doesn't fall off in Year 3. Has a class that fills our needs of 15-20 guys.
November 26 - is competitive in The Game. Heads to a bowl.
Jan 1 - is competitive in the bowl. Finishes season with offense in top 30 and defense in top 60
Year 2 - beats Ohio, Sparty, competes for B1G Title, finishes in the top 15
Year 3 - may be tough because of this recruiting class - this is the year I judge him most on. Winning a B1G Title in Year 3 or 4 is expected. I'll expect him to compete or even fall off a bit from year 2, and win the title in year 4.
With Denard and a lot of spread, ten wins isn't out of the question.
With Denard and not as much spread, maximum of nine.
Without Denard, six wins max, with big improvement in 2012.
Wins 9 games with this team and schedule next year.*
*this team includes Denard Robinson at QB.
pretty sure that this is why RR doesn't get year 4, because he was set up to succeed, and we couldn't have that happen.
I agree. The anti RR crowd had to get him out this year cause after next year he'd be hard to take out cause we was definitely set up for a 10 win plus season. And good lord can you imagine how horrible it would be if a guy NOT FROM MICHIGAN won 10 games?
Jesus....the wine and cheese alumnai wouldnt know what to do........
Hoke is from Ohio. I was not a fan of the hire either but your constant bitching is getting old. Rally around the coach and buck up.
dude cried today, so do I.
Why do we keep hiring criers?
almost a general consensus that RR would have won 9-10 games in 2011? I'll admit, there was much improvement in the offense as his UM career progressed, yet the defense regressed and special teams were awful. Furthermore, his record against B1G teams with winning records in conference play was terrible. Just because we went 3-5-7 doesn't mean we were guaranteed 9 wins next year.
On another note, your sarcasm about the alumni and RR not being a Michigan man is absurd.
It's not exactly a general consensus among the U-M fanbase as a whole - just among the RR diehards. Given that we won every close game we played in, we were fortunate to even finish 7-6 in 2010. Assuming that our luck in close games evens out, nine or ten wins will require a pretty major team-wide improvement.
Did you not hear the Athletic Director of Michigan's comments today? Doesn't need a map to the campus? Already know The Victors? No matter what RR did, he was never going to be considered a Michigan Man by certain people at UM. Disgusting, but true.
...an easier schedule and something like 20 returning starters - including not having to play freshmen all over the place in the secondary, especially at corner.
Seriously, we're set up to do well next year as long as the offense doesn't fall apart. And before anyone freaks out, I'm not saying that it will, but it could - particularly if Denard takes his talents elsewhere.
i just don't get why people cant understand that rr would not ever win more than 8-9 games. rr would never get a defense that can stop big10 teams. If we played in the big east where he had his success we would have went 12-0 this past year with no defense.he was the problem on D we couldnt just keep letting him hire new D coordinator every year after he was the one that stepped in and had no clue what he was doing on D
Prevent DOOM from engulfing the program in a great pit of fire, molten lava, and bloodcurdling screams.
In 2012 we play roadies against Alabama, ND, Nebraska, and OSU. We'll be lucky to win 1 of those. Cant see us winning more than 8.
Dantonio's head on a pike outside of Fort Schembechler. Signaling the rise of the Maize Horde and glorious plans to pillage our way across the Rust Belt.
Like the fat chick. Enthusiastic, ok for awhile, but not especially endearing and not getting any better looking. But better than nothing.
This man has a vision. He has a clear goal. My expectations for next year are high but not unrealistic. I know his coaching style might be a little different than RR, but we still have a good group of young talented athletes on this team; most of which have solid experience under their belt.
I honestly think we'll go 8-4 next year, but I won't be stunned if we go 10-2. He'll do whats right with Denard. Yes, he;s a special player and had a great season, but I won't be fuming if Devin is announced starting QB and Denard plays slot/RB. I think Devin is our sleeping giant and will be Vince Young-like. Believe me, Denard will be utilized and will make a major impact this upcoming season, regardless of position. Remember, "no one is more important than the team."
Coach Hoke isn't the big ticket coach we are hoped for. I was one of the people pulling hard for JH, then LM. However, I am extremely content with Coach Hoke and I'm positive that he's going to bring us back to dominance in the Big Ten and on the national level.
I'm from Michigan and have been a Michigan fan for my entire life. I don't use the term "Michigan Man," because it is purely subjective. All I can say is that we have found the right guy and Wolverine Nation needs to rally around him. This man would die for the Maize and Blue.
= 10 wins. It's math. Look, there's an "equals" sign. And mathematics is virtually impossible to argue with.
when i ran the numbers i came up with 20 starters + 22 starting spots = 14 wins
I believe you have proven why mathematics is only virtually impossible to argue with. I rescind my fuzzy logic in favor of your far superior proof. All hail 14 wins in 2011! (Because math says so.)
The first year losing can be tolerated. After that we call for his job after each and every loss without excuse. The questioning of him being a "Michigan Man" and whether or not he has "family values" should already be underway of course.
Just need to make sure he is held to the same standard.
So, because the last coach was unfairly criticized off the bat, we need to make sure we do that every time?
Yes. we need to hold the standard that you and other's set.
we set a new standard of ending divisiveness that was shameful in the past.
We have to let go of RR (wish him well, but let go) and let go of our disagreements about what is done. Let's start out with hope in our team this time. And stick to it.
What does letting go of RR have to do with applying the same standards to our new coach? If Hoke can't do better than 3 wins next year, or 7-6 in year 3, would you really think we should keep him?
Judging by people's expectations here, 7-6 by the third year would be highly unlikely. He would be significantly underperforming, and undeserving of a fourth year based on traditional Michigan expectations.
Defran, Rosenberg and Snyder will be fondling themselves in ecstasy.
I think you meant "fondling each other in ecstasy."
I see 2011 with 8-9 wins with a defense that isn't bad.
2012 = Big Ten Title
Given Denard's success in year 1 as a starter, how hard he works and how much he improved over his freshman year. I believe Denard will be top 3 Heisman in 2011 and will win or finish 2nd for the Heisman in 2012.
If you can run like Denard, you can be a good but not great passer and dominate college football even without the spread. Look at Michael Vick at VA Tech, he threw a good deep ball but was a terrible passer less than 15 yards.
Beat State by 40
A win on the road against sparty and a home victory over OSU!
9 wins, which Brian has stated, is too high for me. I'd expect seven wins. If Denard stays, bump that up a little, but I think it's too hard to guess what kind of zany pro-style offense we will run.
Lose to ND, MSU, Nebraska and OSU, but competitive in 2 of the losses. Win the rest, go to the Outback bowl and beat Florida!
Lose to ND, MSU, Nebraska, AND tSIO?
How about a defense that doesn't yield more than 350 yards per game? (That would have put you in the Top 40 in 2010)
...or surrender more than 24PPG? (which would put you in the Top 50 in 2010)
A kicking game that makes 90% of their FGs and 99% of their PATs?
And an offense that averages 35PPG? (which would have put you in the Top 20......ironically, SDSU averaged 35.0 PPG in 2010).
IF we could do that, I don't see how this team doesn't win 8 games.
and after all the above expectations, get nike back! I cant stand having adidas jerseys, those three stripes are so ugly.
9+ wins a year, top 40 offense and defense, top 15 recruiting class, 0 NCAA violations, positive turnover margin in every game, 0 missed kicks ever. Anything else is absoultely UNACCEPTABLE!
But seriously, in 2 or 3 years Michigan should be competing for division and B1G titles.
Beat Michigan State. I mean, he'd better do that or what was the point? And no, I don't think that's asking too much or unreasonable no matter how close we are to his hiring. Michigan Football beats MSU most of the time, and Hoke was hired to bring back Michigan Football.
we need to win all the easy ones no suprises we need to go to a bowl game and beat msu and ND and then he will have proven himself !
with everyone returning + new system. im gonna go ahead and expect 7-5 or 8-4 this coming year. all i want to see if an improvement in the defense, thats my expectation
I think the the expectations should be relatively high. If our defense is even average (top 60) and we keep our in conference turnover margin out of the relm of -10 or better then we'll be fine. And average goes for the special teams as well. The offense will be just fine. You put that offense with 10 starters back on the field with more possesions and less turnovers? And our schedule is easier than last year. I don't think any of that is unreasonable. I'm going 9-10 wins. Prior to the bowl game.
If he gets the key guys to return, I see 8-4 or 9-3 as a realistic goal. A whole different playbook, a new defensive scheme, still a young defense but a talented one. We have some talent returning and I see some success in the near future.
First year HC in a major conference
First year facing the Big Ten
Team still young
Team adapting to a new system
Should expect 400 to 450 yards allowed per game on defense
Improve to -7 turnovers
Improve to a better scoring percentage on offense
Find a 50% kicker
3/4 Wins in the Big Ten
2/3 Wins in the OOC
The realistic view would be 6-6 /7-5. I don't know why so many people are claiming a 5-0 start. That just seems like you're setting up yourself up for a let down. That means the Offense scores against good opponents, not getting blown out of games, and how we fair against our rivals. I believe that would be a good start to Hoke's coaching career at Michigan.
I just don't see this 9-3 that everyone is talking about. There won't be a huge transition, but there will be a bit of one. The defense just isn't good enough to win 9 games, even if it does make major leaps. We have tough games against ND, MSU, Nebraska, OSU, Iowa, NW, and even Illinois.
...after seeing the Spring Game. By then, it should possible to tell if we are starting from scratch or not, with the offense. The Spring Game before RR's first season (which was held at Pioneer's field, due to Big House construction) was shockingly ugly, but turned out to be a pretty accurate indicator of what was to come.
OK, I read through all the comments to date.
I'm not very optimistic.
I see anywhere from 0 to 3 wins and will go out on a limb to say only 1 win.
I see Denard leaving. Tate is also gone.
There is nothing in this recruiting class worth note -or that will help out.
The offense in place has been developed for "Basketball on grass". Hoke is on record as not wanting that. He has a bunch of small/quick buggers that is not condusive for Hoke's offense.
Our wins against the Big Ten opponents were all struggles. We had to outscore to win. Hoke's offense will not be as high scoring as RR's. Plain and simple. I see no wins against Big Ten schools -even if we do play Minnesota.
Our Defense will be roughly the same. We'll have some of those injured back, but the cupboard is pretty bare as we all know. Nontheless, he's not going to go from a 100+ D to a Top 40 D with the players he has.
That leaves Non-conference. We struggled with all our NC games last year -at least until the offense started to click -see above about the lower output I expect from the offense. I also see losses to Western, ND and, yes, SDSU. He will lose to his former team which we've been told is an "excellent" team. We struggled with them 5 or so years ago, we'll lose to them next year.
That leaves us at 1-11 in my book. Yes, I think we'll beat EMU -but I wouldn't be surprised at a loss here either.
And, to top it off, I really really hope I'm wrong.
Why am I pessimistic? I am looking at the situation through the assumption that the cupboard was bare when RR took over. Lloyd retired at the end of '07 for a reason -he didn't have to. Lloyd would have been lucky to have 3 wins that year. Most forget that Mallot was gone regardless of who the coach was -even if Lloyd had stayed. The cupboard was truly bare.
I've been consistent (not that any of you would know since I've pretty much only been a lurker here for the past 4 years) in holding to the idea that it was actually RR that was rebuilding. Lloyd drove the program into the ground and I don't expect Lloyd II to do anything different. I'm a patient person and I think Hoke could do well at M -I hope he does. But, I'm not very optimistic that he will in the short term. And, if 3 years is not "long term", that begs the question as to why Brandon did not give RR a chance at "long term" as he promised in his press conference announcing RR's termination. Brandon tipped his hat with that statement -letting us all know he wasn't ever interested in keeping RR.
Hoke has to completely rebuild this team for his philosophy -it's current personel is not condusive to what he wants to do -while he certainly has more talent that RR did in '08, he will still struggle -due mainly to the state of the D and the fact that his O will not put up the points that RR's did -it's not designed to.
Just my $0.02. And, I hope I'm wrong -REALLY REALLY wrong.