So, is there any way at all that we can make it in with a win over Sparty and just one BTT win?
Who would that win in the BTT need to be over?
Our resume would be admittedly mixed - .500 in Big ten, 20 wins, 2 or 3 top 50 wins, no top 25 wins (lots of very close losses) - but we are talking about doing just enough to get in among 68 teams, not arguing for a 10 seed.
Is there a chance if this scenario plays out?
(Yes, I know the answer is "just take care of business in the BTT", but if it doesn't work out can we still get in with just a win over Sparty and one BTT win?)
BTW, I think we are in if we win our second BTT game, even if we lose to Sparty, because of who we will have to beat to win.
February 26th, 2011 at 8:37 PM ^
you point out, but even in the world of the NCAA tourney objectivity isn't completely the rule: the last 3-5 teams are virtually indistinguishable--if State is one of those teams, it will get in (and frankly I don't have a problem with that--I look forward to when Mich wins enough games enough years to get treated accordingly).
February 26th, 2011 at 8:32 PM ^
meant to qualify everything by--if we get to the tourney finals, then I think it would be hard to keep us out.
February 26th, 2011 at 8:33 PM ^
Not the win this year, but the win two years ago in the Tournament where JB rewarded the committee's faith in him when they made him pretty much the last team in.
February 26th, 2011 at 11:15 PM ^
temple, wisky and zona were high majors ranked below us... so we were between the 4th and 7th last in
February 26th, 2011 at 9:43 PM ^
As pointed out, our RPI under this scenario would be the 40s. The question wasn't "would we be in now?" it was "what would happen if we win two more?"
And comparing to bowl games is totally wrong. Bowls get to pick which team they want based only on money. They aren't necessarily supposed to pick the best team if it won't be the most lucrative, they can pick whoever they want. The NCAA committee doesn't operate that way at all. They are extremely objective and have done a great job picking the field in the past.
February 26th, 2011 at 9:38 PM ^
If we win the next two, that'll also make us 9 of 12 to end the season. The committee likes to look at how you finished the season, and that's pretty impressive. I'd be devastated, and surprised if we win the next two and don't get an invite.
February 26th, 2011 at 8:26 PM ^
Saturday will be a good day.
State is going to lose to Purdue and then likely beat Iowa. If we beat them Saturday...excuse me...when we beat them, we will both be 9-9 in conference. We will have beaten them twice and have a better overall record (yes, I'm ignoring conference tourney possibilities). The only reason that State would be a more likely pick is their preseason #2 ranking. Michigan (despite our dark years) is still a huge national name. State has been blown out repeatedly this season. They late season record is bad. Ours is the opposite. We get into the dance or neither team does.
February 26th, 2011 at 8:34 PM ^
State has better wins than we do: Minny twice, Illinois, Wisconsin, Washington.
This all comes down to how much you think the Commitee cares about record versus RPI top 25 teams, record versus RPI top 50 teams, and conference standings.
I think they care very, very much about the first two and not at all about the last one. That we beat them twice would be a huge point in our favor, but I still would expect them to get in over us.
February 26th, 2011 at 8:49 PM ^
So they have beaten one ranked team. They got blown out by Iowa. Needed OT to beat NW and Indy (at home). I think it'd be hard to take MSU over Michigan if we have two wins over them. I also think their RPI would take a tumble if they lose 2 of their last 3. The late season record (especially if they finish 3-8) makes them not a "hot" team. **of course, this is all tainted by a heavy dose of homerism. I think there'd be a justifiable uproar if they get in and we don't (assuming we win on saturday).
February 26th, 2011 at 9:12 PM ^
and they're 5-8 versus the RPI top 50 versus our 2-9 (that's counting Penn State out of the top 50 for the moment, if you include them we're 4-9 and they're 6-9. They have 1 top 25 RPI win; we have 0.
The only complaining, I think, would come from Michigan fans.
February 26th, 2011 at 10:45 PM ^
But what would you guess their RPI would be after a loss to Purdue and then a loss at Michigan?
February 26th, 2011 at 11:00 PM ^
than ours.
February 27th, 2011 at 12:14 AM ^
Very concise guess. Well...if it's only a couple of spots higher, then I'm not sure how they go and we don't. If it's 20 (which it certainly wouldn't be), then I guess we get left out.
[EDIT] Looks like even Lunardi now has us as "last four in". So...maybe not as bleak as you think.
February 26th, 2011 at 8:28 PM ^
Based only on what Joe Lunardi says, it seems we need to beat someone pretty good in the Big Ten Tournament just to get on the bubble. That's with another win over Michigan State. He doesn't think much of our resume and he is usually right about these things.
February 26th, 2011 at 8:39 PM ^
Don't put a ton of stock in what Lunardi says just yet. He never takes in to account future results when updating his brackets and our at-large chances always hinged on a late run. He's one of the only bracketologists to not at least acknowledge Michigan's in the picture.
As for the the OP's question, I honestly don't know. Our RPI/SOS along with the conference RPI is remarkably good considering our record. Not sure how the committee will look at us given the disparity between our top 25 and top 50 record and our RPI.
Two causes for optimism: There's 37 at-large spots as opposed to 34. And a lot of other bubble teams are in a similar boat as us where their records don't really match up with their RPI/SOS. That could torpedo us, or we could be a hell of a lot closer to a bid then we actually think.
Long story short, there is a chance, I'm just not sure how big of one. We have to beat Sparty. Don't think 8-10 in the conference would get us a bid. Then it becomes win at least one BTT game and hope for the best.
February 27th, 2011 at 8:16 AM ^
I'd love for Lunardi to be wrong.
Oops, apparently, he now has us as one of the last four in, which is interesting because before he was so dismissive. A win over State plus a BTT win might be enough.
February 26th, 2011 at 8:41 PM ^
Or is it OSU/Purdue/Wisc or die?
February 26th, 2011 at 8:37 PM ^
it used to be that 20 wins in the B10 was a lock. hell, i remember M getting in as a 10 seed with like 17 wins. this was 1996 maybe.
20 wins used to be the magic number, what changed?
February 27th, 2011 at 8:25 AM ^
More games played. The 1987 Syracuse team that went to the championship game finished the season 31-7. That's 28 regular season games, including six NCAA tournament games and four Big East tournament games. We've already played 30 games with one more regular season game plus BTT.
Obviously, this is just one example, but if you looked at final records of most teams back then, you'll probably find similar numbers: less than 30 regular season games.
February 26th, 2011 at 8:46 PM ^
Yes, absolutely. If we beat MSU, we'll almost be the 4 or 5 seed, meaning we would play a good team (likely Illinois) in the first round of the BTT. So, finishing the year with wins at Minny, home against MSU and neutral site Illinois would be enough. That means our only losses in our last 13 games were OSU, OSU, Wisconsin and Illinois. With wins over Illinois, @ Minny, PSU, and MSU. That would get us in.
February 26th, 2011 at 8:49 PM ^
IF we get in, based on beating MSU and losing in the tournament quarters, what kind of seed will we get.
I know it would be nice to get to the field of 64, but being one of the "first four" as one of the last bubble teams would be cool too. A game on a Tuesday night, and if we win, another on Friday. I was initially skeptical of the 68-team format, but now that we're a bubble team with a chance to play in one of the extra games, I appreciate it.
February 26th, 2011 at 8:51 PM ^
IF, and I must specify IF, we get in, we're probably heading to Dayton.
February 26th, 2011 at 8:54 PM ^
making the trip from Cincinnati to Dayton.
February 26th, 2011 at 8:57 PM ^
Isn't the Dayton game for the lowest seeds in the tourney (i.e. #16/#17 seeds)?
February 26th, 2011 at 8:59 PM ^
The entire First Four is played at Dayton. That means the 2 games for the last four at-large teams and the 2 games for the bottom 16 seeds.
I can't see us getting an at-large and not being one of the last four in the field.
February 26th, 2011 at 9:01 PM ^
it's for teams who are the 1st 4 in(not automatic bids). If Michigan is the last four in, they're playing in the play-in game for the rights to play the #5-#7 seeds. In addition to the last 4 ins, the worst 4 NCAA tourney teams will play in the play-in game for the rights to face the top 2 seeds.
February 26th, 2011 at 8:53 PM ^
If Michigan beat MSU and beat either the #4/#5 Big Ten team in the BTT, Michigan would still not have any quality wins or wins against RPI Top 25. Minny is likely to drop out of RPI Top 50 plus Harvard may drop out of RPI Top 50 if they lose a game next week after a brutal loss to Yale. This will reduce their wins against RPI Top 50 teams. That hurts Michigan. Michigan is 0-6 against RPI Top 25 which means no quality wins for Michigan. The committee selection tends to reward teams with quality wins especially if it's enough to offset bad losses which Michigan has with Indiana.
If Michigan beat MSU and win 2 games in BTT, they may have to sweat it out IMO. One quality win against OSU/Purdue/Wisconsin type may not be enough for Michigan to get over the hump. They still can get in by winning the next three games and lose the BTT championship game but it's not by any mean a lock.
Obviously, Michigan needs to win the BTT if they want to be assured of a spot to the NCAA tourney.
If Michigan lose to MSU, they must win three games in the BTT(they're likely not going to be a #4/#5 seed if that were to happen. They will have beaten 2 OSU/Purdue/Wisconsin type teams in the BTT. They may get in but still has to sweat it out.
If Michigan beat MSU and lose in the 1st round, they're out IMO.
February 26th, 2011 at 9:12 PM ^
Beat MSU and win one in the tourney and it's likely that we get in. We would then have probably 4 top 50 wins (assuming MINN stays there but that's questionable, plus twice MSU and Harvard). And if we get a 4 or 5 seed then the win would have to be against MSU or ILL which would make 5 top 50 wins and a top 50 RPI. What we are missing in top 25 wins, we make up for with 4 quality road wins. All that and .500 in a top 2 conference, great play down the stretch and an expanded field makes us a likely tourney team with a win against MSU + one more. It would hurt a bit if we end up with the 6 seed and only beat the 11 seed in the tourney but that would require PSU to win out and I doubt they'll beat OSU. Hopefully, the commitee takes into account all the close calls against top 25 teams (SYR, OSU, KAN, WIS).
In short, it's better than possible. It may even be likely.
February 26th, 2011 at 10:03 PM ^
close losses to top teams, or remembers hearing them mention favorably about close losses to top teams in interviews in previous years? It seems like it should carry at least a little weight.
If it were a real metric, we would probably lead the nation in it.
February 26th, 2011 at 10:13 PM ^
It's another one of those metrics where officially the answer is NO, but it probably plays some role. I wouldn't say it plays a big part though. Keep in mind that the committee is mostly made up of AD's from schools around the country, and they have enough on their plate between that and wading through all the official resume factors in determining who is included and seeded where.
In short, MAYBE they'll take note of our close losses, but don't count on it.
February 26th, 2011 at 11:16 PM ^
there is NO WAY just winning two more games will get us into the tourney. Here are the teams that we've beaten in conference: MSU, Iowa (x2), PSU (x2), NW, IU, and MINN. Some pretty average competition. I don't know where people get the impression that we have the "best conference in the nation". We have OSU, Purdue and Wisconsin, whereas the Big East has Pitt, UConn, St Johns, Villanova, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Louisville and a lot of other really solid teams. We've lost our chance to upset a top B1G team and we've beaten up the lesser competition in our conference. Just an enjoy a win for what it's worth. The only way this team goes to the dance is if they win the B1G tourney. When they listed our best wins today, they read Harvard and MSU. A lot of moral victories doesn't put any in the W column.
February 26th, 2011 at 11:51 PM ^
There are ways to still make the NCAA without winning the Big 10 Tournament, unfortunately they probably involve beating OSU or Purdue or maybe even Wisconsin in the semi-finals.
February 26th, 2011 at 11:57 PM ^
I expect to get negged for being "negative" but do we really need to have this conversation every time we win a game? I would say that had we not blown the IU and NU games earlier this year, we could talk, but our best game in the win column is probably Clemson or MSU and that's just not enough to push us ahead of the rest of the bubble teams, though I will concede that beating OSU in Indy would give our resume a boost. Just enjoy the ride, guys.
February 27th, 2011 at 12:11 AM ^
Well get ready for an onslaught of it tomorrow. Some dude on Scout, who claims to be tight with Bilas and/or Lunardi, says that we're expected to be in Lunardi's last four in tomorrow morning. Who knows if he's legit or not and how much weight Lunardi's projections deserve is an entirely different argument, but either way its only gong to get worse even if we're in the first 4 out. His alleged inside info:
LAST BYES
• Michigan State
• Butler
• Gonzaga
• Georgia
LAST FOUR IN
• Richmond
• Michigan
• Alabama
• Baylor
FIRST FOUR OUT
• Memphis
• Clemson
• Boston College
• Colorado
NEXT OUT
• Colorado State
• Maryland
• Wichita St
• Nebraska"
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=162&f=1088&t=7244025
EDIT: Apparently this is confirned, we're n Lunardi's "Last Four In"
February 27th, 2011 at 12:17 AM ^
Well more power to them. As long as people don't confuse not believing they can get in with not wanting to see them in, we're all good.
February 26th, 2011 at 11:38 PM ^
To be honest, the fact that we're debating on whether or not we'll make the tournament, given preseason expectations, is absolutely awesome.
Michigan basketball, welcome back -- I've missed you.
February 26th, 2011 at 11:51 PM ^
Slight likelihood
To be safe win a few more in the BT tournament and hope to get in
February 27th, 2011 at 9:22 AM ^
answer to titled question is yes.
of course we would make it we would be 9-9 in big ten then we would be a 5 seed and if we win one then we would be in the semis for the big ten