Confused as to why so many
Because
ESPN said so. Duh.
KENPOM
WILL PREVAIL
Although ironically I'm pretty sure just picking the higher seed to win each matchup will give you a better bracket than what KenPom would predict if you use it for past years. Can't model madness with a computer, it seems
Actually, dating back to
Actually, dating back to 2007, KenPom and the "higher-seed" strategy both have a 73% accuracy rate (74.4% for ESPN's BPI).
http://wp.bracketscience.com/?p=418
All-Time First
SECCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC!
SECCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"I love him, he's a great coach, he's a great mentor, he's a great friend. He's every single thing you want a college coach to be, and he does it flawlessly." -David Molk
Because Florida
is #1 in KenPom ranking. If you look at recent national champions, they all have one thing in common which is they're all ranked at top 10 in both offensive/defensive efficiency. Florida is the only one who are in top 10 in both catergories. However, the season is a weird season with a lot of upsets and no elite team, we could see an outliner for the first time.
Don't you think Michigan
Don't you think Michigan would have top ten in both categories had they played in the SEC? I think it's a legit question
Offense, yes
Defense, I'm not so sure. We allowed Penn State to torch our defense and it's not like they would have gone 17-1 in the SEC
Ratings
The AdjustedO and AdjustedD numbers are basically just PPP on O and D adjusted for strength of schedule and then normalized against an average team. So that ranking for Florida already accounts for their easier schedule and the SEC. I believe it is based off of an adjustment just for the opponents corresponding O or D. That is to say, our AdjO is our PPP altered in some way by our OppD. I don't know what the actual formula is but if you use AdjO = PPP*(100/OppD) or the very similar PPP*(100.6/OppD) you will get something that is pretty close to AdjO. The constant 100.6 being the D1 average efficiency this year.
In any event, Florida is that highly ranked moreso because they have crazy high margins of victory in their wins rather than because of their soft schedule. They also played a pretty decent non-conference schedule with Wisconsin, Marquette, Middle TN St, Arizona and Kansas State so their overall schedule is respectable. No doubt though that Kenpom has them rated too high based on some blowouts because if they were really that good they would have to be insanely unlucky to lose 7 games.
KenPom adjusted for competition
based on his conference rankings and team rankings.
The KenPom rating is
The KenPom rating is definitetly worth consideration. So is the fact that Florida has not won a single game this year in which the final margin was in the single digits (that has to be one of the craziest stats ever). Their closest win was in the SEC tournament, when they beat Alabama by 10. Their losses are by margins of 1, 6, 11, 3, 6, 4, and 3.
Now I think much of the analysis of "clutchness" is overblown, but is it all overblown? Don't you think Florida's players are going to get a little anxious when their second round game is tied up with 3 minutes left?
In short, KenPom may believe in them, but I'm going to be very skeptical until I see them win a close game.
Yeah
As opposed to our plethora of quality wins?
ALL ABOARD THE A-TRAIN!!!!!
" ~ Herm "
We have beaten OSU, MSU, KSU,
We have beaten OSU, MSU, KSU, Pitt, Minnesota and Illinois, and were a layup away from beating IU.
And a half court shot away
And a half court shot away from beating Wisconsin.
And NC State
still a tournament team
All the way.
/fandom
All the way.
/fandom
Have them making the Finals and losing to Louisville
Because I'm a Michigan fan. And I'm in a pool full of non-Michigan fans who probably won't be picking Michigan (and probably will be picking Louisville). I like rooting for my bracket, but I like rooting for my own team even more. Go Blue.
Your father wouldn't want to hear this, Sonny. This is business, not personal.
Rational (yet slightly
Rational (yet slightly pessimistic) me says losing to Kansas in the Sweet 16.
HAIL.
Basically.
What have we seen recently that makes us think we can beat Kansas?
Now it's certainly POSSIBLE that we could beat Kansas, but to flat out say we WILL do it...heart and head part ways.
"I love him, he's a great coach, he's a great mentor, he's a great friend. He's every single thing you want a college coach to be, and he does it flawlessly." -David Molk
Agreed. Teams that are on a
Agreed. Teams that are on a slide heading into the Tournament always have a very hard time of turning it around. Kind of like my grades going into my junior year . . .
That's actually not as true
That's actually not as true as people think. How a team fares in its last 10 is not that strongly correlated with tourney performance.
You may be right - I've heard
You may be right - I've heard the opposite but have never seen data either way . . .
I'm with you
and my parting ways depends if the bracket I'm entering is for money or pride. But we all know how often upsets happen and not many people gave Rumeal Robinson and crew with an interim head coach much of a chance either. Not a fair comparison, I realize, but it just proves that anything can happen in this cockamamie world.
God Bless his Maize and Blue heart...
The Team, The Team, The Team
It's not recent, but I
It's not recent, but I watched that Kansas - TCU game. A team that shoots that badly in one game can have a repeat performance, particularly when it's a game in an arena with really poor spatial arrangement for basketball (ie Jerryworld and domes in general).
Now that doesn't make it likely enough to make me say we will do it, but it's not in the realm of the totally crazy. (I think Withey will be the biggest problem if we get that far).
My blind bracket
has the same thing, actually.
So it goes.
I have them losing to duke in
I have them losing to duke in the finals
Hail Yes
I would rather lose in the
I would rather lose in the first round than lose to Duke ever.
"I'm the guy who does his job. You must be the other guy."
So you would have wanted the
So you would have wanted the Fab Five to lose in the first round in '92?
I have them winning it all,
I have them winning it all, because I feel like they can if they can get past VCU. But I really have a tough time doing that. VCU has the better coach I hate to say and will be tough for Michigan.
You know, Dude, I myself dabbled in pacifism once. Not in 'Nam of course.
Losing to Georgetown in the
Losing to Georgetown in the Elite 8.
“What the mind can conceive, the mind can achieve and those who stay will be champions.” - Bo
][V][
This is where I've got them
This is where I've got them too. I don't think Kansas is that great, and in my experience watching them Withey is great defensively but won't give us fits offensively like a lot of bigs. I'm not as worried about them. And VCU's press means we get to run all the time. We're best when we run, so that's fine.
But Georgetown seems like a more talented Wisconsin, which is a bad matchup for us.
Me too.
Me too.
"I hate losing more than I like winning." - Zack
My homer
Bracket is national title. Realistic bracket they lose to Kansas
Conflicted
As I fill out the bracket, I see us having more difficulty with VCU than with Kansas; if we make it past VCU, I see a decent chance of a semifinal rematch with Indiana.
On the other hand, why do I even venture into these unpredictable waters?
Well
Well, I damn well don't have them going out in the first round again, that's for sure.
Winning it all, because I
Winning it all, because I cannot in good conscience pick against my team, as that would cause a very small part of me to be slightly happy if I were right about them losing. Can't do it, I am a, always optimistic homer, and have no problem admitting it.
Bo Schembechler BA, Bear Bryant Law.
I hope you were around in '89.
Otherwise you've lost a LOT of money on pools.
(Maybe if you were around in '92. Had someone win my pool by having Michigan win it all, even though they didn't. Just so many points by even having them there. The next year that wasn't a unique strategy).
"I love him, he's a great coach, he's a great mentor, he's a great friend. He's every single thing you want a college coach to be, and he does it flawlessly." -David Molk
All Big Ten
...Final Four, MSU beating OSU. Michigan beating IU and defaeting sparty in the final to maximize couch burning and crocodile tears.
Bigscotto68
ohowihateohio.....
God Bless his cotton pickin' Maize and Blue heart
Pretty sure
That if we beat MSU in the finals it'd be real tears. Assuredly real couches though.
GO BLUE! MClub supports you.
I also have them losing in
I also have them losing in the Elite 8 to Florida. Some point during the season I convinced myself Florida was a great team despite not finding much statistical data to back it up. I'm worried about VCU but also think VCU could lose to Akron.
Get busy living or get busy dying.
Akron will be starting a back up point guard.
Akron will lose big time.
"I hate losing more than I like winning." - Zack
How far will they go? They
How far will they go? They will be crowned The Most Glorious Champion For All Time Amen at the end of this tourney.
An Indiana, MSU, OSU,
An Indiana, MSU, OSU, Michigan Final Four isn't the craziest idea when you go through the bracket. I think Indiana and OSU are virtual Final Four locks, or as much as you can be given the craziness that can be the NCAA Tournament. Michigan and MSU are much less likely, given that Michigan will probably have to go through Kansas and Florida/Georgetown. MSU also has it tough with Duke and Louisville. While I don't think this outcome is likely, I think it is more reasonable than I initially thought.
To actually answer the question, my heart says Michigan all the way, but my brain says Michigan probably falls to Kansas in the Sweet 16.
"And when we play as a team, when the old season is over, you and I know, it's gonna be Michigan again, Michigan."
I got Michigan and Ohio State
I got Michigan and Ohio State in my championship game
I have them winning the NIT
I have them winning the NIT
So does...
...NITommy Amaker!
Here's my problem
Let's say Michigan wins it all... and I don't pick them. I feel like an asshole. Do I think they'll win it all? Sadly, I don't. However, if they get hot - I think they can beat anyone. They're ranked in the top 15 overall and as such, I feel it's my duty as a lifelong Michigan fan/alum to have them winning it all.
"Touchdown... No flags!!"
Founder and current Commisioner of the ITGPD - Internet Tough Guy Police Department, est. 2012
If they win it all
How far down on the list of things you'll think about is who you picked to win it?
I'd take all my pool entry fees I've paid in my life and donate them if it meant we win the title.
"I love him, he's a great coach, he's a great mentor, he's a great friend. He's every single thing you want a college coach to be, and he does it flawlessly." -David Molk
Guard play often comes up big in the tournament.
Michigan has one of the top pair in the country, if they both get hot, look out.
Guard play could also be what brings down Indiana. They have a Freshman at the point and a short 2 that can shoot, but is slow and does not defend all that well.
"I hate losing more than I like winning." - Zack
Have the losing in Elite 8
To Florida. Their ability to make 3s is what will doom Michigan. I also had UNC upset Kansas in the 2nd round. UNC is one of the hottest team and Kansas is just unfortunate to draw UNC in the next round as a potential matchup.
Confused as to why so many are high on a Florida team that basically has no quality wins