siap: bovada (formerly bodog) has us as 14 point dogs.

Submitted by foreverbluemaize on
Title says it all. It used to be 10 - 12 so I would have to say they are assuming Fitz wont play.
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colin

August 29th, 2012 at 4:01 PM ^

This was basically jamiemac's take, but I'm a little unconvinced that the line would move unless Vegas was unhappy with the bets it was taking.  Why suddenly be unhappy with those bets unless you're revising some thoughts about the talent in each game.  

Incidentally, I calculated that the line move was what a reasonable guess between the difference in Fitz and Rawls/etc. might produce, given Mathlete's WPA numbers and the change in expected winning percentage that the new line implies.  Can't be precise enough to know for sure, of course.

Joined: 07/01/2008

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MGoBlue96

August 28th, 2012 at 11:12 PM ^

them no shot are just providing more bulletin board material/motivation. They proved most people wrong last year going 11-2, hopefully they can do it again on Saturday.

Also, for the record I have no idea who the heck bovada or bodog are.

Joined: 12/26/2010

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MGoCombs

August 28th, 2012 at 11:28 PM ^

For non-gambling purposes, 10 pt or 14 pt underdogs doesn't make that much of a difference to me in terms of the public's expectation for this game. Essentially they're saying we don't have a chance to win. I hope we prove them wrong.

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Keith

August 29th, 2012 at 12:26 AM ^

means you get the selected teams +10 points, at a much reduced payout rate.

So, for the bet listed above, you would expect maybe a 1:1 payout (if you're lucky) if all three teams are within ten points of covering the spread.

So the spreads he listed are 10 points more in favor of U-M, MSU, and SCar than they are otherwise.

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