further adventures in Jed York being unsuited for his position
siap: bovada (formerly bodog) has us as 14 point dogs.
That's it I guess. We have no chance since Bovada says so.
Actually Bovada is suggesting we have about a 15% chance. You put your money down yet?
has had lines for weeks and they moved from 12.5 to 13.5 at the end of the weekend... then to 14 yesterday AM. Nothing to do with Fitzgerald. National bettors flooded BAMA so it moved.
This was basically jamiemac's take, but I'm a little unconvinced that the line would move unless Vegas was unhappy with the bets it was taking. Why suddenly be unhappy with those bets unless you're revising some thoughts about the talent in each game.
Incidentally, I calculated that the line move was what a reasonable guess between the difference in Fitz and Rawls/etc. might produce, given Mathlete's WPA numbers and the change in expected winning percentage that the new line implies. Can't be precise enough to know for sure, of course.
them no shot are just providing more bulletin board material/motivation. They proved most people wrong last year going 11-2, hopefully they can do it again on Saturday.
Also, for the record I have no idea who the heck bovada or bodog are.
Sounds like a brand of toilet scrub brushes.
Maybe that's just me.
the SIAP are back
The title says it all? Maybe you could translate it for me and Herm, dog.
I help. I spraken de bovada. Bovada is say to you: Please, for my money you take.
What? You no Michigan like with greater point? Why you no like bovada money?
That near Bolivia?
For non-gambling purposes, 10 pt or 14 pt underdogs doesn't make that much of a difference to me in terms of the public's expectation for this game. Essentially they're saying we don't have a chance to win. I hope we prove them wrong.
It means absolutely nothing but it's interesting to see how things effect the game spread.
Or a bunch of sharps put money down on Alabama.
A more informative title would be "FREE MONEY".
-MSU +3.5 (I know, I know)
-South Carolina +3.5 (@ Vandy)
Honestly, yes that seems pretty safe. Although it's never a sure thing. Unfortunately if you lost this bet I think it may most likely be Michigan's fault.
You got points with MSU and USC?
means you get the selected teams +10 points, at a much reduced payout rate.
So, for the bet listed above, you would expect maybe a 1:1 payout (if you're lucky) if all three teams are within ten points of covering the spread.
So the spreads he listed are 10 points more in favor of U-M, MSU, and SCar than they are otherwise.
I was waiting for their line to come out and that was exactly the spread I was hoping for. Michigan with the points seems like a Damn good bet to me.
I wouldn't have trusted them if they were still caled bodog, but since they've rebranded themselves as bovada, they're totally legit now.