Should Michigan go for two after every touchdown?

Submitted by Controversialidea on

The talk of Lane Kiffin going for two got me thinking...

We've already missed one PAT on a bad snap, and I could see it possibly happening at least one or two more times on the season.  However, that's not the main reason I think Michigan should go for two after every touchdown.  It seems like with Denard running the offense, we would have a really high success rate at 2pt conversions (I think it would be higher than 50% at least, which would make it statistically a good decision to go for two).

Thoughts?

SwordDancer710

September 21st, 2010 at 4:07 PM ^

We've been fine for the most part from the PAT standpoint, so I don't think going for two would be really necessary. Going for the 4th down conversion instead of the field goal is what I think we should do.

joeyb

September 21st, 2010 at 4:24 PM ^

OTOH, if we make our first one (which could be scripted in practice to increase reliability) it decreases the chance that team that was held to two field goals instead of a TD will be able to go for 2 to make up the difference. Example:

8-0
8-7
15-7
15-14
22-17
22-20
29-20

All of a sudden we are up two scores. That takes pressure off of the defense. If you miss it on the first drive, you even out on the second.

maizedandconfused

September 21st, 2010 at 4:13 PM ^

The problem with this scenario is that on the goaline, teams will not be afraid to blitz. Mostly because for 3 yds is the same as beat for 300. So, the question we need to ask ourselves is do we want to put denard in the situation where; he can find open receivers in 1v1 coverage on slants/ins/posts but be staring down a blitzing 240lb linebacker?
Secondly, weve scored what.. 14 TDs this year? and were 13/14 on PATs.. so unless you can reasonably expect to go higher than 1/2 on 2pts (not counting times when going for 2 might lose you a game by 1 pt) when the average statistically over the years is 40%.. you'll be on the losing end of the points gamble. 

http://www.docsports.com/two-point-conversion.html

UMfan21

September 21st, 2010 at 4:14 PM ^

I've made nearly every PAT this year.  So you'd need about a 50% conversion rate on the 2pt tries to tie what we've got now.  50% conversion seems VERY high to me.  So we are better off doing the PAT with an occasional miss (and do the occasional 2pt try when necessary)

w2olvesg

September 21st, 2010 at 4:15 PM ^

but i think lane kiffin's trying all the two point conversion just for practice.  all those conversion attempts have come against hawaii and minnesota (perceived bad teams) and frankly why not?  it's always good to have in-game experience for situational plays and if they ever need to use it in a key game, they would have the added advantage of experiencing it plenty of times in actual games

michgoblue

September 21st, 2010 at 4:16 PM ^

Bad idea.  Until our kickers show that they cannot make extra points (and if that happens, I will kick the damn things myself!!), we should continue to go this safe route. 

rcm

September 21st, 2010 at 4:19 PM ^

Seth will do a fine job at kicker.  I liked what I saw from him kicking normally during UMass.  That first field goal was a bad snap at the foot of the holder.  His PATs were booming, he even launched one over the netting, IIRC

TheOracle6

September 21st, 2010 at 4:22 PM ^

No.  Anything Lane Kiffin does is stupid and should not be replicated by any other coach in America.  RR should go for it on most 4th downs when we're in normal teams field goal range.  Hopefully RR's cry to the UM students will produce a kicker named Tacopants who hasn't missed a field goal since 1976.

Tacopants

September 21st, 2010 at 4:24 PM ^

The variance is too high.

You can reasonably expect every PAT to succeed and give you 1 point.  While the expected value may be the same, the variance would mean you could go on streaks where you make unnecessary 2 point conversions, then go on streaks of missing them when you really need it.

Think about it this way, the PAT right now is a fixed coin that lands on heads 95% of the time. The 2PC is a fair coin.  It might alternate Heads and Tails, but it can also go HHHHH and TTTTT.  If you're the better team and trying to reduce game variance, take the PAT.  If you're the worse team and have nothing to lose, you might as well go for the 2PC to create more variance.

Erik_in_Dayton

September 21st, 2010 at 5:22 PM ^

My knee-jerk reaction was that going for two as Kiffin does is stupid, but after thinking abou it, I wouldn't mind seeing Michigan do it against OSU or Wisconsin...My biggest reservation is political, so to speak, not based on football.  I would hate to see Coach Rod be second-guessed for going for two at an unorthodox time.  He's got enough pressure as it is. 

Anyway, excellent explanation.

SysMark

September 21st, 2010 at 5:12 PM ^

I say no on this.  As opposed to going more on 4th down, which I am in favor of, statistically 2-point conversions are not a good bet.  With only 10 yards to defend the defense is too compressed to risk the point on one play.  With first and goal on the 2 or 3 yard line it often takes 2-3 plays to get it in - not a great gamble with only one.

UMaD

September 21st, 2010 at 5:26 PM ^

Regardless if the math says you do it or don't, RR can't.  The first time he missed he'd get killed in the media and RR can't afford that right now...mabye 2 years down the road, but not now.

Remember how the spread offense was received, how the new punt formation was received, how the stadium expansion was received?  The Michigan fanbase and locial media is pretty old-school conservative when it comes to change, real or perceived.  It can be acheived, but it takes some "political capital" to make it happen without torches and pitchforks coming out.

mikoyan

September 21st, 2010 at 5:44 PM ^

I would say no.  The kicker is better than 90% right now, which means the Two Point Conversion percentage would have to be better than 50% to net more points which I don't think that it is.  Of course, 2 point conversions are usually gone for in situations where the defense is expecting them so that might help their odds.  And I'll agree with the person above that the extra point is usually considered the safe bet so it is often better to go for 1 instead of 2 lest one gets crucified by folks like Drew Sharp.

ijohnb

September 21st, 2010 at 6:28 PM ^

prepared to be like "Oh you got to be kidding me, this guy is an ass!" and then I really got to thinking.  Denard gets two yards before anybody realizes that the ball has been snapped. Maybe not go for two everytime, but it actually is an interesting point.

Sparty_Slayer

September 21st, 2010 at 6:48 PM ^

I don't like it, it's not like we've been horrendous attempting PAT's, what, one miss so far? Now if Gibbons or  Broekhuizen all of sudden completely implode and start shanking everything than I think we consider it. Till than let's just stick to what were doing.

mgoblue15

September 21st, 2010 at 8:43 PM ^

You want the points. 50% chance not good enough. Other teams would scout the plays they run on the goal line and would be able to stop the 2 point conversion most of the time. Bad idea.

repole

September 21st, 2010 at 8:46 PM ^

The thing is, while going for two produces more points on average, it also has a far higher variance associated with it. If you're an underdog variance can be considered a good thing, after all it's going to take some statistical luck to win, but if you're considered the favorite you're going to want to avoid said variance a bit more.

/stats geek

Kyrie_Smith

September 21st, 2010 at 9:45 PM ^

I thought about that after the ND game.
<br>I would think the success rate would be closer to 60-65%. Especially if the opponent didn't know it was coming prior to game time. So I would save it for the buckeye.
<br>

Indiana Blue

September 21st, 2010 at 9:53 PM ^

I doubt Lane lasts very long .... anywhere, talk about a slime-ball !!!

However, I have always held that we need to have a "sure-fire" 2 point conversion play.  This needs to be practiced every day (like MSU's little giant).  Come out in the "swinging gate" formation, loved the fake FG where you act like you have too many men on the field - but actually the guy running off is simply in motion.  If the D ignores him, you simply throw him the ball.  Multiple unusual sets, the holder runs the option, or throws ... I don't care what it is -  but have some trick up your sleeve to get a 2 pointer.

Sure would have come in handy at MSU last year !!!    Go Blue !