I don't think it's directly Michigan-related at this point, but it's not as OT as True Detective or Cosmos so I'll throw it out there anyway.
Curious about what people think about this:
Most of what I see in bracketology commentary, here and elsewhere, rests on a tacit assumption that a win is a win and a loss is a loss, regardless of score. Thump a team by 30 or beat them on a last-second banked-in three, it's all the same to your RPI, your RPI/SOS (and everyone else's), your record against whatever class of teams you want to consider.
But to me there's a big difference between firmly establishing your superiority over a team vs. winning a coinflip at the buzzer.
To make this concrete, two teams each with ten losses playing very comparable schedules. Team A played the #97 SOS at kenpom; team B the #95 SOS.
Team A lost games by 1, 2, 2 (OT), 2, 3, 4, 4 (OT), 4 (OT), 9 and 14. The 14-point loss was at the kenpom #29, the 9-point loss was at the kenpom #1
Team B lost games by 1, 2 (OT), 4, 5 (OT), 7, 8, 10, 14, 16 and 25. The 25-point loss was at the kenpom #90, the 16-point loss was at the kenpom #129, the 14-point loss was at the kenpom #67. And the 25-point loss was their last game of the season--it's not like they're heading into the tournament with a full head of steam.
Team B is in Lunardi's most recent bracket. Team A has never appeared even in his last eight out. (Yes, I know, Lunardi. It's similar across the matrix.)
Why? To me, team A has only been soundly beaten twice, by very good teams. Other than that they've just lost more than their share of coinflips. Team B's gotten completely dominated several times, sometimes by bad teams.
Shouldn't that matter? At this point team B has firmly established that they aren't a top-25 caliber team. With team A I'm not sure--maybe they aren't, maybe they are and they've been unlucky.
Am I swimming against the herd here? I understand that the committee might not want to make a lot of noise about point spreads because they don't want to encourage coaches/teams to run up the score. But should they ignore them altogether?
(If you're still wondering or want to fact-check, team A is Utah and team B is Arkansas.)