Semi-OT: Gerdeman Voices Concerns re: OSU

Submitted by Eye of the Tiger on

Key quote at the end:

If Ohio State wins out, they're still in a pretty good spot, provided that Michigan shows up in Columbus undefeated, which they will be overwhelmingly favored to do. If Michigan loses a game prior to The Game, then the Buckeyes will need a Penn State loss somewhere along the way in order to get into the Big Ten Championship Game. Penn State's schedule is exceedingly winnable, so you may as well just get used to the fact that you are now a Michigan fan.

However, what would this offense be able to do against Alabama, even in a dome? How would this offensive line hold up? Especially when Nick Saban is given about four bye weeks to study the OSU offense? That's obviously a risk everyone is willing to take, but is the offense even good enough to get there? Are the special teams? Is the defense? 

What happens if it's breezy when Nebraska comes to town? What if it is drizzling for the Michigan game? What if it's chilly up in East Lansing? These are all legitimate concerns and Ohio State will have to overcome these obstacles. The future is still theirs, but the present might keep them from it.

Link.

Lan Jiao

October 26th, 2016 at 4:34 AM ^

...I think there's a possibility Michigan could lose The Game and still make the B1G Championship because OSU drops another game.

 

Wisconsin's was able to go toe-to-toe with OSU yardage-wise (and then some), and their green roster was exposed via some not-so-special special teams moments. The Buckeyes don't seem to have the focus that M has right now and there's some legitimate concerns on all 3 sides of the ball. Nebraska and Northwestern each have momentum, and I'm personally glad that OSU is playing in College Park rather than M. Definitely could see OSU limping into The Game at 9-2.

 

Then again. M could drop a game, too, so let's just make it all moot and get that win in The Shoe.

jscheff77

October 26th, 2016 at 4:51 AM ^

What I love most now is that as this season progresses, that smug look of arrogance is slowly wearing off on Ohio's face. One more loss or even a slim victory in OT before the Game will cause some panic. Let's hope we take care of business one game at a time and trust in the coaching staff to stay focused.

Yooper

October 26th, 2016 at 11:39 AM ^

Pretty clear now that the game plan against OSU is take away the run and make JT beat you down field passing.  The good news is that our D is perfectly designed to do just that.  Front 6 can shut down the run.  Our corners can man up allowing extra pressure on passing downs. OSU is unlikely to hit big plays in those situations.

Fnrmerse

October 26th, 2016 at 4:48 AM ^

The last Michigan Monday article was really his first acknowledgment that Ohio State was going to have a fair amount of trouble with Michigans tight ends and other pieces of offense.
Though I'm not sure he is giving credit to Harbaugh and this team when he skips to talking Alabama though. I understand the worry about Saban and four weeks of him studying OSU but I think this is what Brown's defensive prowess was brought in for in the first place. That was months ago and Michigan is just getting practice sessions in at this point.




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Danwillhor

October 26th, 2016 at 5:05 AM ^

I don't trust our offense against a good defense yet and I think they'd eventually outscore us. However, they look very mortal now as opposed to the first 5 weeks and their offense has always been subject to weather issues. If they cannot establish a constant running game and it's wet or windy they tend to bog down. MSU won that game last year due to weather as they weren't the better team. I'm a lot more optimistic than I was a few weeks ago but I'd still pick OSU if we played this weekend. I think their fans are reacting to their first away loss under Meyer (!) and our fans seem to forget just how iffy we can be on offense vs any defense with a pulse. Speight is still in "stare down option 1 from the snap" mode and has gotten away with it due to competition. In the Colorado and UW games he looked pretty green most of the game while he gets away with simplicity vs Rutgers, Hawaii, Illinois, etc. Further, he has a run game vs those weaker teams that isn't nearly as consistent vs decent defenses. OSU has a very good defense so I'll need to see a bit more from our offense before I'd change my pick in The Game. I'm convinced our defense can keep us in it but can we move the ball on them with consistency? UW lost that game by settling for FGs because you have to outpace an OSU as they'll fall ass backward into a few scores on a bad day. They'll score on our defense, IMO. I just don't see half of what they hit last year and it still makes me wonder if our offense can match that. I'll end by saying that I'D LOVE FOR LATE -2015 CHESSON TO SHOW UP! I think he just out of sync with Speight (as opposed to Darboh) and a true 4.4 deep threat would be amazing by the time we play OSU.

VicTorious1

October 26th, 2016 at 9:12 AM ^

No one cares what you think. Thanks for sharing. Jokes aside, I share some of you concerns with our offense, but I think OSU's offense and defense both have exploitable deficiencies. I've watched their last three games and they are not as good as you think: (i) no real deep threat or consistent WR play; (ii) significant pressure given up by their O-line when only four are rushing, let alone on blitzes; (iii) struggles with stopping rushes up the middle; and (iv) lack of variation with their offensive play calling. Outside of Curtis Samuel, their run game doesn't really inspire fear. Go back and watch their last three games.

 

Edit: looks like I replied to someone on the Android app who's shadowbanned.

lbpeley

October 26th, 2016 at 9:25 AM ^

danwillhor is banned from the full site. I was wondering who the hell you were responding to so I went to the app.

He's got a point about osu's penchant for turning their offensive miscues into damn TDs. Never seen a team with so much effing luck when they actually screw up the play they ran.

As far as our D, we've now seen 3 teams keep their O mostly in check. IU, UW and pedosu. I'm fairly certain Brown and the gang can take that and make it even better. Our O, on the other hand is what concerns me. 

Danwillhor

October 26th, 2016 at 4:53 PM ^

I'm using the app but I don't know why I'd be banned. The worst I've ever done was tell an angry poster that "if you're not drunk right now you're not very smart". Hmm....lol

xtramelanin

October 26th, 2016 at 5:47 AM ^

sometimes on the farm it is a temptation to count our chickens before they have hatched, but it's not good to do so.  

win on saturday.  don't stumble v. m-land, in iowa, v. IU, then get to the game.  if we think sparty will give us their best, then you have to know that ohio will be insanely fired up, and that is a team loaded with 4-5 stars.  by that point their whole team will have a season plus under their belt.  really like our chances, but pump those brakes. 

EGD

October 26th, 2016 at 6:08 AM ^

It would be a MAJOR disappointment if M were to drop any of the games before Ohio State week though. Sparty is reeling. Iowa is Iowa again. IU and Maryland are average teams having nice seasons relative to their limited talent levels. Could any of them beat Michigan? Sure, but they absolutely shouldn't. Worrying about that happening at this point is kind of like admonishing your family to not talk about whether to swim in the pool first or go to the beach because, hey, the airplane might crash before we get to Cabo.

Rasmus

October 26th, 2016 at 10:21 AM ^

On the other hand, it's a good thing that all the remaining games are against teams that are decent enough, or at least well-enough coached (in the case of MSU), to be meaningful games. I mean, Michigan is rightly favored in all of them, but none of them are trap games. There will be no loss of focus.

However, after running this gauntlet there will be a sense of relief going into the B1G championship game -- that game is the reamaining trap for this team. Survive that, and barring injuries I like this defense against anybody.

shswhit51

October 26th, 2016 at 8:16 AM ^

Yeah we get it we're not actually out there playing. But I think it's just good practice for the community at large to not overstate the importance of what harbaugh and co are preaching and that's take every game seriously.

When I was in high school my team was heavily favored to go to state title. Our friends were saying it, the community newspaper was saying it. Our coach did a hell of a job preparing us each week but we ended up losing to a "cupcake" team two weeks away from end of regular season. So. I think at some level the feelings and postulations of the fan base can and does make it into the locker room. It's just a good thing we have harbaugh there to block against it.

"Playoffs!? You're talking playoffs!?"




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xtramelanin

October 26th, 2016 at 9:53 AM ^

if i was playing or coaching on this team it'd be way, way more 'focused' on one game.  my comment was directed toward the realistic expectations of average fans, like me, and in direct response to the OP's article about ohio's outlook and expectations. 

Lan Jiao

October 26th, 2016 at 11:02 AM ^

...we understand that any game (especially a confernce road game or rivalry game) can jump up and bite you at any time. Look at NC St. @ Clemson or OSU @ PSU or so many games from past seasons. I'll be waking up at midnight to watch the Staee game and be as nervous and anxioius as any game........but can still talk potential/theoretical situations. That's the beauty of the sport.

 

That said. Jabril, Wilton, Jourdain, Mr. Butt....if you're reading this and Coach hasn't drilled this into your heads from Day 1, Saturday is your championship. Beat State.

ldevon1

October 26th, 2016 at 6:39 AM ^

OSU controls their own fate. If they win out, they beat MIchigan. If they beat Michigan, it becomes a 3 way tie, and the 1st tie breaker is overall record which eliminates Penn St, and then the head to head comes in, which they would have over Michigan. Doesn't matter, because we will win in C-bus. 

Tunneler

October 26th, 2016 at 7:19 AM ^

They need UM to go into The Game undefeated, or they would lose the head to head against Penn State.  Only Michigan controls their own fate.

 

The non-conference record only comes into play if there is a 3-way tie.

ldevon1

October 26th, 2016 at 8:19 AM ^

The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:

(a)    If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.

(b)    If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made.  If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
1.    The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
2.    The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.
3.    The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).
4.    The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
5.    The highest ranked team in the first College Football Playoff poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the College Football Playoff poll.  In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game.
6.    The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
7.    The representative will be chosen by random draw.

If one or both of the Big Ten division champions is ineligible to play in the Big Ten Championship Game, then the participant(s) in the Big Ten Championship Game shall be determined by the following procedure:

a)    If the ineligible team is tied for the division championship, then the team it tied with shall be the Big Ten Championship Game representative.
b)    If two or more teams are tied with an ineligible team for the division championship, then the ineligible team is removed and the remaining teams revert to the tie-break procedure.
c)    The division runner-up shall be the Big Ten Championship Game representative.
d)    If there is a division runner-up tie, then the tied teams shall revert to the tie-break procedure.

If the championship game cannot be played (due to any reason beyond the control of the Big Ten Conference), the two division champions (using divisional tie-breakers as set forth above) shall be declared co-champions and the following procedure will be used to determine the Big Ten Conference representative to the College Football Playoff:

a)    Teams ranked No. 1, 2, 3 or 4 in the final College Football Playoff poll will automatically be placed in the College Football Playoff.
b)    If the two divisional representatives met previously in the season and neither is ranked No. 1, 2, 3 or 4 in the final College Football Playoff poll, the team ranked highest in the final poll shall be the representative to the College Football Playoff, unless the other team is ranked within five or fewer places of the higher ranked team.  In this case, the head-to-head results of the two teams shall determine the conference’s representative.
c)    If the two divisional representatives did not meet previously during the season, the team ranked highest in the College Football Playoff poll shall be the representative.
d)    If the two teams are tied in the College Football Playoff poll, the team with the best overall Big Ten record shall be the representative.
e)    If the two teams remain tied after d), the team with the best combined record of the tied teams against all common Big Ten opponents each team played that season shall be the representative.
f)    If the two teams remain tied after e), the representative will be the team with the best overall winning percentage.
g)    If the two teams remain tied after f), the representative will be the team furthest removed from College Football Playoff, Bowl Championships Series or Rose Bowl Game participation (as appropriate).
h)    If the two teams remain tied after g), the representative shall be determined by a random draw.

Ann Harbaugh

October 26th, 2016 at 12:37 PM ^

When talking about records compared to each other. It means what was Michigan's record against Penn St. and OSU. What was Ohio State's record against M and PSU? What was PSU record against OSU and UM? It doesn't get down until 6 when PSU would drop out, which is comparing overall win percentage.

Sauce Castillo

October 26th, 2016 at 8:04 AM ^

If psu wins out, osu wins out, Michigan wins all the games except for the last one, it creates at 3 way conference tie in which case it would be determined by AP Poll (I believe) so it would either be osu or M, Michigan could still backdoor their way into the big ten championship in this scenario if the game came down to a last second kick or something.  

This scenario doesn't even matter anyway cause..... WE GONNA WIN!

ldevon1

October 26th, 2016 at 8:22 AM ^

Penn State wins out, Ohio State and Michigan win remaining games with the Buckeyes knocking off the Wolverines in the final game of the regular season.

Under this scenario, steps 1–4 would all result in ties, leading to step 5, which would remove Penn State (thanks, Pitt!). The Buckeyes would then get the nod because of the head-to-head win over the Wolverines.

Penn State drops another game, while Ohio State and Michigan win their remaining games up until they meet, with the Buckeyes winning “The Game” in Ohio Stadium.

A month ago, the prospect of Penn State winning its five remaining games was laughable. Now, not so much. Michigan State is a tire fire, Iowa is back to being Iowa and the other three opponents are Indiana, Purdue and Rutgers. Still, it's far from guaranteed that Penn State will win out and should they drop a game, they'd fall out of a hypothetical three-way tie with Ohio State and Michigan in this scenario.

The Buckeyes would then take the tie-breaker due to head-to-head record with the Wolverines.

Michigan loses multiple games, including the finale to Ohio State, while Penn State wins out.

This is bad news for Ohio State fans as Penn State would have the head-to-head tie-breaker.

Ohio State loses a single game the rest of the way.

If Ohio State loses another regular season game, you can likely kiss a Big Ten championship good bye. If the loss is at the hands of Michigan, you can definitely say adios.

GoBlueBorderBattle

October 26th, 2016 at 6:54 AM ^

I think that Ohio State will lose one more game before they play Michigan. This isn't just wishful thinking. I think they've been exposed and will lose another close one. It might even be this weekend....

LSAClassOf2000

October 26th, 2016 at 7:04 AM ^

Control the ball, play solid defense, and win the field position battle with fantastic special teams. That's how Tresselball works, and it would have worked again for Ohio State if the special teams had not lost this game in every way possible.

Going over their game in my mind again, the extremely conservative playcalling does stand out, and he is right in that it was definitely a nod to Tresselball in a lot of ways. It was not a typical Meyer game on offense at all and that was actually kind of shocking in a way. 

AmayzNblue

October 26th, 2016 at 7:20 AM ^

Which is concerning, because they looked very beatable in the Wisconsin and PSU games, just like they looked in the conservatively called MSU game last year. Somehow, they managed to show up with their best game plan against us. Hopefully, we can return the favor




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Njia

October 26th, 2016 at 7:48 AM ^

I think there are deficiencies that Meyer is trying to minimize or mask. But, I think he over-thinks the issue; and rather than play (and coach) the way it's worked all season, he goes into Tresselball mode.

A coach like Harbaugh would recognize that he can get into Meyer's head and affect the game planning and in-game decision-making.

lbpeley

October 26th, 2016 at 7:32 AM ^

article about osu OT in any way, shape or form? C'mon people. 

I'm wondering which team we'll face as the #2 in the CFB. Clemson? Washington? L'ville? A&M?

UM Fan from Sydney

October 26th, 2016 at 7:45 AM ^

Do you really care that "OT" is in the title of threads? I have a feeling those two letters have no impact on your life.




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