Season Overview
I thought I would try and take a step back and see how we are performing this year compared to our expectations. You can take issue with my assumptions, but I'll try and encapsulate the Mgoblog consensus and not my own feelings. So at the end of August we thought:
Mich 7-5
Assumptions-Improved offensive line play combined with a healthy Minor and Brown will allow Tate to operate the offense a little more effectively than Threet/Sheridan and complete some passes to keep teams honest and the seeds of an effective offense will start to show some life. On defense a healthy Warren to go with a monster Graham and a maturing Mouton, Ezeh, Brown and Martin will hopefully put up a respectable defense while we break in new safeties, DE and Boubacar.
Intangibles-Knowing how young and thin we were we hoped to be relatively injury free and despite our young Qb's we would cut down our turnovers so we could get closer to the middle of the pack.
The Better than expected
*Tate despite the injuries and recent struggles was better than we could have hoped.
*Roh for a true freshmen has been solid.
The Worse than expected
*Our best RB Minor has been hurt all year.
*Our best OL Molk has been hurt most of the year.
*Boubacar was booted from the team.
*Ezeh and Mouton regressed and Ezeh benched.
*Turnover craze has returned to AA
The rest of it has been pretty much what people thought. So taking that into consideration I think maybe RR is doing a little better job than he is being given credit for as I think we are looking at hopefully 6-6. As Brian has stated the other assumption on 7-5 was that RR was a great coach. So to quote quite the mediocre coach. We are who we thought we were. So I guess patience is the key because it seems like most of us feel we are headed for good things in 2010 and great things in 2011. We are still on track for that.
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:28 AM ^
This is about the 3rd (or is it 30th? I cannot remember) Season Overview post that claims we are were we thought we would be at the beginning of the season. I don't think so, the past two weeks have shown us more regression than progression and it's quite troublesome. Perhaps we have a similar record to expectations, but the nature of that record belies this claim.
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:52 AM ^
I think the one of the problems we as fans have is we want to make order of football. I think Brian with the engineering background tries his best to make sense of things that is why his head asplodes. Things go all over the map and people think they are progressing or regressing then bam it flips over again. Is MSU progressing?? Did Minnesota Progress or did they just catch MSU on a hangover?? Did we regress or did we play Penn St with out 2 best offensive players hobbled or out?? Did we regress against Illinois or did we turn the ball over in the red zone and get stopped on downs??
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:22 PM ^
brown gets 1" past the line of scrimmage, we are not having this discussion as Ill puts in frosh qb on next series from the 30ish, rest of team goes into "rebuilding blues" mindset.
perhaps we are having this discussion 5 weeks ago if the warren int against IU goes the other way.
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:21 PM ^
That is an amazingly powerful point...one freakin inch and we could well be talking about how we are going to lambaste Purdue versus hoping we win the best hope we have left of winning a game.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:35 PM ^
Also remember that young players are much more susceptible to ups and downs, so last Saturday's collapse after the 99.5 yard drive isn't so surprising (but still frustrating) to me.
Another problem that we have as fans is that we're always looking to assign responsibility--who is to blame and who is to praise. We would all be better off if we just enjoyed the successes and took the failures with frustration, not condemnation.
The biggest challenge, by far, RR now faces is the psychological state of this team. Of course, that's always the most important part of being a head coach, and that's one of the things at which Lloyd really excelled, IMO.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:41 PM ^
Couldn't agree with you more. Win as a team lose as a team. Also, expecting this team to do things they probably aren't capable without more repetition and experience is inherently frustrating
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:24 PM ^
would it be a good idea for Coach Carr to visit the team and give a little pep talk? He's a Michigan Man, he's one of us. I suppose some would view it as a surrendering of authority on Coach Rod's part but I also agree that Coach Carr had it going in the philosophical/psychological departments. Perhaps he could just say something to the press, 'if I were addressing the team'...
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:57 AM ^
The regression stuff has been kind of driving me crazy. Yes, we have demonstrably regressed since the season started, but I don't think it's due to bad coaching, or whatever. Since that blazing 4-0 start we have lost starters on both sides of the ball, and had our skill position players concsistently banged up. IME, it would be awfully hard for the team to be making good progress when it is thrown into that situation. This is not to excuse the meltdown in Champaign, but I think it's understandable why we have backslid, even if I'm not thrilled by it.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:04 PM ^
I agree 100%, but I can only vote once or I'd give you more points. You made my point only much more concise. Well done.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:50 PM ^
I would add to my list of fan gripes the "I thought we'd go 7-5 but I thought we'd play better, so I'm still pissed" sentiment that seems to be going around post-Illinois. How do you think teams go 7-5 (especially when they do have talent, but it is all extremely young)? They make mistakes and fumble and miss assignments and do all the things our team is doing. If they didn't make these mistakes, the record would be better. You can't say you expected a 7-5 (or 6-6) team and then be shocked/appalled when they play like one.
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:01 PM ^
There is some type of disconnect going on here. We Fans can at a distance pick the team to go 6-6, but then watching each game get frustrated about what could have been, and get very very dejected. I don't think there is a pill available yet to cure this malaise.
November 3rd, 2009 at 2:26 PM ^
I disagree with the assertion that the last two games have shown we have more regression than progression. Any season has ups and downs, especially a young team in a transition. Beilein said something last year to the affect of the second year of a turn around is like a rollercoaster, and I think that's what we're seeing. The Penn State loss was bad, but they're a legit team, so it's not like it's suprising we lost to them. And while Illinois is certainly not a good team, they have talent and exploited our weakness to a mobile qb due to our horrible lbs and safeties. The state and Iowa loses are no indication of a lack of progress, as we were in both games till the end.
So basically, IMO, everyone is freaking out over one bad game, on the road, against a talented but under achieving illini team. We're a 6-6 or better team (hopefully) which is exactly what people thought before the undeserved hype that followed the ND game. We're on track.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:04 PM ^
If you expect no injuries, things will always be worse than you expect.
I agree with the overall direction, but I'd add a few things:
Better than expected:
DL play: Martin and Van Bergen both appear to be good despite being first-time starters.
Stevie Brown: looks like he should have been an LB all along
Graham: we knew he'd be good, but the guy has been UNREAL
Worse than expected:
Safeties: Mike Williams looks terrible, even for a young guy.
Defensive depth: (there were vague hopes for Fitzgerald and Demens and misguided hype for Turner, Campbell, and Emilien)
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:18 PM ^
I thought everyone was on board with Martin being a beast this year. I'd say Mrtin a tad below expectations and RVB a tad above. I like this line next year even without Graham.
I deleted the part about Williams, I thought some people would think it too harsh. He's only a sophmore, but the last couple of weeks have been pretty brutal. Hopefully he finds his stride soon.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:54 PM ^
Awesome
Way Awesome
Not bad
Whew
Damnit
Damnit, Damnit
I feel sorry for them
Crap
Oh my holy God.
November 3rd, 2009 at 2:51 PM ^
This season has been disappointing. As alluded to in other posts, expectations change throughout the course of a season. A 4-0 start shot a hyper injection of hope into my heart and the result was a drug induced dream of new years day in the outback bowl. Recently, it is clear that the moxy of the earlier team has been bludgeoned to death by injuries, youth, and a severe lack of talent. Much of our slip is not Rich Rod's fault. Some of it is. End of story: Im pretty sure not even Pete Fucking Carrol could win with this squad.
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:27 PM ^
I'm not sure Pete Carrol is the best example of a coach who could get the most out of lesser talent. USC loses a game every year against far inferior talent. At USC he has the talent every coach dreams of having. Not sure who is a good example though, I would have went with RR back in '07...