How do we know that? If its still at large vs at large dont we have a better chance of playing KSU or Baylor? Or anyone else, for that matter?
Scouting TCU Thread
If TCU wins we play them. If they lose, we play Kansas St.. If Kansas St. loses, we play West Virginia.
If TCU wins AND they finish in the Top 16 ... which I think they should -- they'll move above Houston, and probably move ahead of one of Georgia/Baylor/MSU/Wisconsin.
"TCU: If TCU beats UNLV and Houston loses, the Horned Frogs only need to make the top 16 to be an automatic bid. Currently at #18, they can't depend on passing the Cougars nor on gaining any ground for their win over the Rebels, so they need a couple of teams above them to lose. Those teams could be: Wisconsin/Michigan State, Georgia, or Baylor. If Georgia and Baylor win, TCU is out of luck—even a Kansas State loss probably doesn't help. Then they'd be dependant on a longshot Boise State loss, as the Broncos would tumble and logically fall below the Horned Frogs, who beat them earlier. Suffice it to say TCU should be rooting primarily for LSU to beat Georgia, and Houston to lose."
So its far from concrete. They still need a couple of losses, and if The B1G & SEC champ games are close, they might not make it regardless.
an OSU win over OU and you could very well see them jump UA, just like Florida jumped Michigan by playing when Michigan wasn't.
My head hurts...
We just watch the games and when they are all over we can draw a straight line..
TCU loses to UNLV, KState loses to ISU, LSU loses to Georgia...we play in Fiesta Bowl. At least according to the widget.
book that one...UNLV is pretty bad.
I have watched TCU play Baylor and Boise this season. The defense is no where near where it has been the last 5 years, although their one LB is still a beast. On offense, they lost their top playmaker in Kerley, but Wesley is good as we just saw on the punt return. The QB is young. I have gotten the impression that he has talent, but is very raw. He can really toss it around and make plays with his legs at times.
TCU seems like the best team to play on that list, no?
Just switched channels. Tcu game is on versus for anyone who wants to watch.
He's got Michigan as about a 5 point favorite vs. TCU. That line would have been 4 vs. Houston, and will be 11 or 12 if Michigan draws West Virginia.
TCU needs to be No. 12 or better in the final BCS standings to get an auto-bid. That's not a given.
We could very well play Kansas State, or even Okie State, depending on how today's games go.
They just need to get to No. 16 to be eligible as the top non-AQ conference champion. Seems extremely likely.
OK, that's right, due to the horrorshow that is the Big East. Here are the rules:
3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:
A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.
TCU is an autobid if they are their conference champion (they are) and are either in the top fourteen or above an AQ champion and in the top sixteen.
Bottom line: they only need to get to sixteen, not twelve.
Looks like if Georgia wins, UM not in BCS
Why do you say that? Isn't Houston dropping below us just as good as Georgia dropping below us?
Wrong. Houston falls behind Michigan. So does either msu or Wisky. It's pretty simple.
Houston essentially represented "Non-AQ BCS team". If it's not Houston, it's the next non-AQ team in line because the Big East sucks so much. So Houston's "slot" in the BCS is still going to be taken by (probably TCU).
Which takes us back to why we were rooting for Georgia in the first place. In part it was to get to the top 14, but it was also so that they wouldn't force LSU to take a BCS at-large spot.
The concern at this point after Houston has lost (and they will drop behind us for sure) isn't the top 14, it's whether there will be an at-large spot available for us.
Unless Iowa State beats Kansas State... In that case we play Oklahoma/Ok State winner.
The widget is crazy!
This is right. The SEC would take three spots, the other AQ champs would take five, TCU (assuming top 16) would take one, and Stanford would almost definitely take the last one.
The biggest game for us today, by far, is LSU-Georgia.
There might be some merit to this BCS model after all as much as I hate to say it (key word: some). If Houston got matched up with an SEC team in a playoff they would lose 100-0. I have to imagine the same could be said of TCU this year if they're ranked so much lower. I'm not really worried about TCU if we get them.
So maybe I'm a bit confused, but why wouldn't Boise also be an option? They are the higher-ranked non-AQ team, and a match-up with UM would be pretty attractive. I'm sure there are factors beyond that, but it seems weird that TCU is the presumed choice if Boise is out there. Of course, I'm probably missing something, so please correct/forgive my ignorance.
TCU won the MWC, so they can autobid. Boise would have to be selected as an at-large, which just isn't going to happen, especially if we're talking about the Sugar, which would have to take an autobid (either TCU or the BE champion).
Wait? When did the MWC get an autobid?
A non-AQ can autobid with stipulations. First, they have to win their conference. Second, they either need to be in the top-fourteen or above an AQ champion and in the top-sixteen. If a team meets those critera, they are an autobid to the BCS.
Thanks, all the new stipulations for autobids have had my mind spinning.
They lost the Mountain West to TCU.
Now that Houston is out, do we really need LSU to win? It was my understanding that we were going to be one of a few at large teams in the BCS, along with Houston. But not that Houston lost, wouldn't we just take their spot?
I think the computers might not drop Houston enough to to make them fall out of the top 14. They have pretty good computer numbers, and even though this loss makes them look "exposed", the computers will probably keep them top 14.
It's about even money whether they drop below Michigan with this loss.
The computers had them at 10, lower than the human polls. How could the human polls possibly have them higher than TCU is now? #17 TCU had a win over Boise and only an OT loss.
If Georgia wins, SEC will get three BCS bids, almost certainly (loophole involving the #1 and #2 teams being from the same conference and not the champions of that conference). That leaves seven more slots.
1. Oregon (Pac 12 Champ)
2. ACC champ
3. Big East Champ
4. Big 12 Champ
5. B1G champ
Therefore, we only get two more at-large bids.
First one almost certainly goes to Stanford, unless they somehow fall out of the top 4 in the final standings (even then, they're likely to get one).
That only leaves one slot, which would have to go to TCU if they're #16 or higher in the final standings. Crazy auto-bid rule.
Michigan gets left out in that scenario. If, on the other hand, LSU loses, you get one additional at-large bid, which probably goes to Michigan.
of improbable upsets (UNLV over TCU, Iowa State over Kansas State, and _____ . Sorry, Rick Perry moment) to get to the Fiesta Bowl.
Say Kansas wins a close one to Iowa State, does Kansas drop at all?
Yes. It's still a home loss to Iowa St.
but with subjective human voters, *Kansas State* could certainly drop a little if they just squeak it out like they're doing now against Iowa State. But I doubt it would be that big of an impact.
Here's the deal.
Assuming TCU gets into the top 16 and bama stays #2, there are only 2 at large spots because there are 6 auto bids, TCU and bama.
The Sugar would get the first pick and everyone believes they would take us. Fiesta then will choose Stanford. Then Sugar picks again, they have a choice of TCU and the Big East champ likely West Virginia. Why do people assume they will choose TCU? I assume distance?
My guess is because TCU is the better team. But then someone might think it would be intruiging to match up Michigan and West Virginia even though RR is no longer here.
Just curious as to why it wouldn't be Boise St. Houston was 6th in the BCS and Boise St. is 7th. With Houston losing, you would think Boise St would at least move up to their spot, and possibly higher since Okie St and Va Tech each have a game to play yet and are ahead of them. Couldn't they snag an at-large bid yet?
Boise doesn't get an auto bid because they didn't win their conf. They are eligible for at large but people assume Stanford and Michigan will be the at larges.
I know the Mountain West isn't an auto-bid, which is what kinda creates this dilemma. TCU may win their conference while Boise is only runner up, but being ranked #6 in the nation is more attractive than #16. They say we have to be #14 for an at-large, but TCU can get in being ranked #16, despite playing in a weaker conference. I would just think Boise should get an at-large over TCU because of the polls. It's similar to us and Sparty should Sparty lose to Wisky in the B10 Championship. They beat us and finished ahead of us in the Conference, but they had one more loss than us and we finshed ranked higher so we get BCS...
no you dont understand, TCU gets an auto as the mountain west champ if they are in the top 16, boise would need to get picked over Stanford/Michigan, not TCU
TCU has an absolute tank of a punter. He looks like he is a defensive lineman.
assumes a Sugar Bowl bid if we play in the BCS. There is still a possibility of a Fiesta Bowl bid if we qualify for a BCS bowl. It all is going to depend on how the rankings shake out and which match ups will be the most attrractive for at large BCS bids. The Fiesta bowl people were at the Nebraska game and the Sugar bowl people never made it to a game. I don't know if that means anything.
The Sugar gets the first choice, they will not take Stanford over Michigan.
And TCU is a worst case bowl match-up scenario, because it's truly the no credit to win, crap if you lose game, like Houston...except that, unlike Houston, TCU is good and would be a much harder game to win.
A win over TCU would be solid. No shame in losing either.
Especially considering TCU beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl last year. Public perception will not take into account that they lost their starting qb, playmaking wr, and most of their defense.
I want Michigan to have the most prestigious and awesome bowl possible.
That said, I despise the BCS and want LSU to lose to create a scenario with the most possible BCS carnage to get college football out of this awful system. Such as... Georgia wins, Ok St wins huge and jumps Alabama a la Florida 2006 pitting LSU vs OkSt in the championship and preventing Alabama from going to a BCS bowl. It would be epic.
I can't help wanting Alabama to miss out on the title game as well. Saban is the devil incarnate. Being employed by Michigan State is pretty much the equivalent of being caught with a dead hooker as far as moral failings go.
If I'm not mistaken, Michigan has never won a Sugar Bowl, the only one of the 4 big BCS bowls that they have not. As far as I can tell, the only teams that have won all four are:
It would be awesome for Michigan to join that group with a Sugar Bowl victory this year.
It is based on the idea that Alabama is a lock for the national title game, when in fact, they are not. I have a hard time believing that A. Voters will be cool allowing a rematch AND there being no conference champion while a conference champion with a better computer ranking and same record is there.
B. If OK St wins and they do jump Bama, Alabama will be eliminated from the BCS and we'll play Georgia.
We are most likely going to play TCU or Georgia now that Houston has been eliminated. OU will fall out of the top 14 if they lose. The only other chance is if the voters do allow a rematch of teams that didn't win their conference. If that is the case we'll play Ok St in the Fiesta.
If Georgia wins and LSU and Ala stay in the top 2, we may be looking at the Cap One.
LSU can't get a first down. Honey Badger don't care.
Sagarin: Michigan is a 5 point favorite.
Common Opponents: Just SDSU.
Michigan 28-7, yards 413-376 (home)
TCU 27-14, yards 446-296 (road)
Record against current Top 25 teams:
Michigan 1-1, MSU 14-28, Nebraska 45-17 (also beat ND 35-31, which is also receiving votes)
TCU 1-1, BSU 36-35, Baylor 48-50 (also beat BYU 38-28, which is receiving votes)