Scouting MSU Offense

Submitted by RationalMSUfan on

I already provided some undetailed thoughts on the MSU defense earlier and they were well recieved for the most part :-) so I thought I'd provide some info on the offense.

Glass Half Full? - As fans, I think we tend to see the postive things from our teams and I can't help doing that. I realize that is a faulty starting point, but I'm a fan so what can I do. What I mean by that is our point total at OSU (10) stunk. However, in watching the game not all 10 points are created equally. It wasn't like we were totally pathetic (like OSU) and went 3 and out. We ran the ball ok (prior to 4th quarter shut down mode) and moved the ball into OSU territory quite often (9 or 10 times I think). Then........WE SHOOT OURSELVES IN THE FOOT.  Now, I remember the UM folks with RRod talk about all the yards they would rack up between the 20's before faulting in the red zone. I, as an MSU fan, would laugh. Now, I find myself doing the same thing.  Again, totally admit it is unfair....just being honest.

 

What I'm getting at is that I think this offense has it in them to put together a good thing.  They aren't hopeless like a Bauserman led Buckyeye offense. With that said, I won't believe it until they do it.

Few notes:

BJ Cunningham is a stud - Finally, he seems to be getting his due. He is just a SOLID SOLID reciever. Not as explosive as a Charles Rogers (college Rogers, not inept NFL Rogers), but he has better hands than Rogers and catches everything. 

The other WR's have been a huge dissapointment. Keyshawn Martin is our slot jitterbug, but he just hasn't been right this year. He has made a lot of mental mistakes. Keith Nichol is great as a blocker and catches everything, but he either 1) doesn't get open or 2) Cousins is still mad at him for the QB thing and doesn't throw to him.

*** Our much hyped, but oft injured, Bennie Fowler should play against Michigan. IMO, he has more potential than Nichol or KMart, but we'll see if he can make an impact. He hasn't played a snap this year, so counting on him would be foolish.

 

The RBacks - Edwin Baker has had a poor year. I blame it more on the Oline than him, but he as been bottled up and frustrated. However, if he can get a crease, he has home run ability. He did that against Mich last year. LeVeon Bell seem to do better and consistently getting 4-5 yards. He has that knack for falling forward to pick up the extra 2 yards. Larry Caper comes in on 3rd down to catch screen passes or run draws.

 

Captain Kirk - Kirk really takes a ton of heat for a guy that is pretty good. Expectations will kill a guy. If you look at his stats, he has been fine, but every mistake is magnified. If you look at OSU game, the int in the end zone was thrown fine. Our TE stepped on the db's shoe and couldn't jump. Question the play call, but not a bad throw.  The fumble and look like an idiot falling on it, I feel safe chalking up to poor weather. The final int was an awful decision and throw. No excuse. Still, I think Kirk will be fine if given time. If UM wins, it will be because their blitzes get through and Kirk makes some bad decisions.

 

and finally our battered OLine - No expert insight here, this is really the key to the game.  I've read to the contrary on this site, but our strength is actually or interior line. Our guards Foreman (senior) and McDonald are pretty good. Our Redshirt Freshman Travis Jackson was the starter at the end of fall camp, but got hurt and didn't play against Notre Dame. He is back and has been solid.  Our weakness is at our tackle spots (particularly LTackle) but again, they played better against OSU.  I feel good that your best players IMO are Marting and VanBergen. We need to batlle to a draw there. I know everyone here loves Super Roh, but I think Fou Fonoti will handle him OK and Jibreel Black or your other DE doesn't strike fear in me.  If this were Brandon Graham lining up against Dan France (our LT), I would beg for mercy (or at least mandate a TE staying in to chip block).

 

There you have it.......hope I provided some useful info.

 

Again, I have the good guys (that's MSU) pulling it out in the 24-14 neighborhood, but NOBODY KNOWS what's going to happen.

 

 

Wolverine0056

October 12th, 2011 at 10:13 AM ^

Thanks for the insight, always appreciate a rational fan from opposing teams (even though they are hard to come by). I agree that Cunningham is a stud, he scares me and so do MSU's RBs. I respect Cousins because of what he can do and he has proven that he belongs. But I still think that MSU is way overrated (especially their defense) and it will show on Saturday.

The good guys (Michigan of course) 35 - MSU 31.

Dizzo

October 12th, 2011 at 10:18 AM ^

The two guards being your best OL players will help  since they can cover up some of the weaknesses, but I think Jackson is going to struggle this game.  Mike Martin lining up over a redshirt freshman center who has injured part of the year seems like a clear matchup to exploit.  Rotating Martin and Will Campbell to keep pushing on him without Treadwell playing this week to back him up makes me think he will wear down by the end of the game.  

With the tackles being your weak links, I think Mattison is going to bring a lot of outside blitzes and force them to pick up the right guys.  

My biggest concern is actually Martin catching bubble screens because of what Northwestern accomplished early with not nearly as good of an athlete out there.  Throwing a lot of those early will force the defense to back off blitzes they would normally be doing on longer developing 5-step drops or play-action passes to take advantage of the offensive line problems.

evenyoubrutus

October 12th, 2011 at 10:18 AM ^

Ya know, I find it funny that "RationalMSUFan" has to qualify himself (or herself?) as such; as if this is not the norm, and the opposite (irrational MSU fan) would have been assumed without the qualifier.  I doubt RCMB has any posters with the title "RationalUMFan"

Oh also nice points.

Soulfire21

October 12th, 2011 at 10:20 AM ^

I wonder if they're going to start bubble screening us to death like NW did for awhile.  Guaranteed 5-7 yards minimum per play for awhile there.  Adjustments = God.

The Baughz

October 12th, 2011 at 12:12 PM ^

I was thinking the same thing. They let NW have that play all night and it made me want to throw my controller through the tv. I would have ran that play every time until Michigan pressed the WRs a little more. They eventually did, which was nice, but you cant let a team like MSU have that much space. They have guys, mainly Cunningham, who are capable of making that a TD instead of a 5-7 yard gain. I have all the faith in Mattison, and obviously the defense is much improved, so I cant complain too much. Although, it was hard watching them run that play the whole first half without making an adjustment. Second all but made up for it.

EJG

October 12th, 2011 at 12:55 PM ^

Actually, in the 2nd half, we moved the rush end two steps to the outside to take away the bubble.  NW bubbles in the 2nd half only picked up 5 yards max.  My point is if MSU runs successful bubbles in the first half, we already know the adjustment, and can put an end to it quickly.  The question is what plays will MSU run to exploit the rush end lining up in space?  NW had nothing.  These are the things that happen week to week you cannot predict.

lhglrkwg

October 12th, 2011 at 10:28 AM ^

Instant caveat: MSU is better than the teams I'm going to mention but..

I envision the D playing out similar to how it did against WMU & Carder, ND & Rees, SDSU & Lindley, and NU & Persa. Our D should be able to contain the run enough that it will force a lot more pressure on the QB who, still being solid, will inevitably make mistakes / turn it over. I think MSU will for sure get their yards, but the pressure we'll be able to get up front will turn this into another bend-but-don't-break game where we force 2-3 fortunate turnovers. I bet MSU will put up ~17-24 points, so we'll just have to see how our O does

Franz Schubert

October 12th, 2011 at 10:45 AM ^

Offensively NW with Persa is a superior offense than MSU. Hate to beat a dead horse but in the game of football running the ball is paramount. MSU has not shown the ability to run the football well behind  a patchwork offensive line. Persa is a nightmare to defend.

CarolinaWolverine

October 12th, 2011 at 10:31 AM ^

M will be able to score 3 TDs on the MSU defense while MSU will move the ball a little on the M defense but only score 10 to 14 points.  Book it.

This "scouting" reads like a veiled swipe a all things M IME, while trying to sell us on how GREAT all MSU players are.  Cunningham may be a good college receiver but he'll not be drafted before the 6th round.

Baldbill

October 12th, 2011 at 10:33 AM ^

I have been to a number of the MSU boards and the biggest thing that has changed in recent years is that they have taken on the personality of Dantonio. He is a OSU at heart so he "hates" Michigan and now the MSU boards look like the OSU ones in that every Michigan reference is scUM or Muck Fichigan variety. I find that to be disappointing. I grew up in Michigan and always loved the rivalry, but never "hated" on MSU. Most of my MSU friends never "hated" on UM either, but that seems to have changed. For that I cannot forgive the coach, he has dragged MSU down a notch.

MSU's offense is decent, the battle on first down is massively important, holding the MSU running game in check will determine the whole game. (just my opinion). MSU is 25/71 on 3rd downs (94th ranked), if we can put MSU offense in 3rd and medium/long more times than not, Michigan will win the battle.

Michigan wins 28-24, if they don't turn over the ball

jamiemac

October 12th, 2011 at 10:34 AM ^

I tend to disagree with you on that OL

I love Roh/Black/RVB/Ryan going against those tackles. I dont think Foniti is all that good right now...and the MSU line has been terrible all season on pull/trap plays. Does that get any better with the extra week? Maybe.

I set the Over/Under at 2.5 as the number of plays Mike Martin blows up that undersized, inexperienced center. If it goes Over, MICH D will do enough to win. If it goes Under, then that stalemate you yearn for probably happens and MSU will do enough to win.

SpartanBDF

October 12th, 2011 at 10:36 AM ^

We're 95th in 3rd down conversion percentage and Michigan is 3rd. We have to convert our 3rd downs and stop them from converting theirs. I have a bad feeling about this game.

SpartanBDF

October 12th, 2011 at 11:55 AM ^

because I don't think my opinion is better than the facts. It's my opinion for a team that has a "Pound, Green, Pound" mantra that we should be able to pick up 3rd and 2 nearly every single time. That is definitely not my opinion of what's happening.

Both Treadwell and Roushar have had a habit of going misdirection and occasionally playaction on 3rd and very short(let's say 2 or less). Further, it seems like we get stuffed on the straight power plays in this situation a little too often.  Honestly, this is the area that probably highlights most strongly the weaknesses on our O-Line. A good O-Line should be able to fall forward for a yard leaving the RB to pick up just a yard.

Long story short, we wouldn't be 100-and-whatever at picking up 3rd downs if we were converting 3rd and short well.

Thanks for the shoutout, I do wish I had started this blog in earnest when I was 21 with a two beer a day habit instead of 31 with a two-kid a day habit. Ty and I would really like to compliment Heck over at TOC as the rational voice of MSU football fandom, that's one area I'm truly envious of the Michigan fanbase. 

jamiemac

October 12th, 2011 at 12:33 PM ^

I like Heck's breakdown of games a lot. Its a must read

But, I feel like I should write him an apology for Mchigan trying to keep his Vet School down 100 years ago.

Yes, I went there. Its rivalry week, after all

HALOL!!

Hear ya on the blogging thing. It's for the 20-somethings. We 30-somethings have serious biz going on and cant blog as much as we would like

jamiemac

October 12th, 2011 at 12:37 PM ^

Getting back to those 3rd and shorts....interesting on the observation that they try and get too cute. Is pulling/trapping too cute, because it seems MSU struggles doing that right now

Anyway, those weird bunch/power formations....it didnt seem vs ND and OSU that MSU was trying anything other than running out of those formations.....I would bet a dollar that Dantonio uses the bye week to get some play action passing to the various TEs in on those formations this week.....just a hunch.....running into the line out of these formations hasnt worked and he loved duping MICH, so I am expecting something creative there

But, thats more hunch than anything else

SpartanBDF

October 12th, 2011 at 1:13 PM ^

I watched four plays out of the much maligned unbalanced line, here's the interesting thing. They went to the weakside on 3 of them and our RG(who was effectively playing LT) lost the point of attack on all of them resulting in a yard or less gain. On the one play where we ran to the strong side our OL didn't very effectively block out the guys in front of them. At one point three dudes we're blocking their defensive end, while Baker got TFL.

I guess to the pulling and trapping, that's not too cute to me. Foreman is/was one of the best in the business, but my guess is that's where you're seeing the weaknesses at Center and RT. 

My hope is really that if we put any wrinkles in it's that we've found a way to use our short passing game to compensate for our lack of a running game. Cousins has generally been money inside of 10 yards and I don't think you need an OL to throw a 5 yard slant. I've not seen a lot of Nichol or Cunningham blocking for Martin on a bubble screen this year so far. TEs  and short screens should be used early and often to discourage the Mattison Blitz Death IMO.

jamiemac

October 12th, 2011 at 3:41 PM ^

I liked the form in the ND game when the whole line was lined up to the right of center and the only guy left of the center was a tight end. Classic stuff, the only good play from that was a play fake and they found Sims--the TE./LG--open for a first down.

So, there's that and I wonder if they have some new stuff off formations like that to catch MICH off guard

On the pulling, Foniti seems to struggle on that. And, i recall some plays where McDonald struggled too. BUT, once or twice the struggle was because the center was blown off the ball forcing the pulling guard or tackle whoever to have to sidestep and wreck his own momentum.

Brian did a three part series yesterday on the ups and downs one of our guys had vs NW pulling. This is a 4-star guy in year 3 of college and he was struggling with it, albeit playing out of position. Its something Foniti will learn, but he has very little experience right now.

I look forward to seeing this OL improve as the season goes on.....of course, no improvement until after Saturday, lol

This game is going to be fun, cant wait to watch it play out. Hopefully, for me,  Michigan is as ready to wear as many here think, but I just want to see a good, close well played game

MI Expat NY

October 12th, 2011 at 10:41 AM ^

While you got into OSU territory on 9 out of 10 drives, you really didn't get very far into OSU territory.  Your points both came on plays that started at the OSU 33 and you only ended up with one red zone trip on the day.  Yes, your three turnovers happened in OSU territory (plus a turnover on downs), but I think it's misleading to imply that you moved the ball with ease until you shot yourself in the foot.  You weren't as inept as OSU offensively, but you weren't particularly good either.  

I mean, come on.  You were 3-14 on 3rd down and your longest drives were 8, 8, 7, and 6 plays.  This wasn't anything close to good offense. 

msoccer10

October 12th, 2011 at 10:41 AM ^

I haven't watched MSU much this year but I am surprised the offense hasn't performed better with all the skill players you have. I have read about the offensive lines problems and think our d-line will be the best MSU has faced this year, assuming some ass hat from MSU doesn't chop block Mike Martin.

Seriously though, one of the reasons M went in the tank after MSU last year was that chop block from last year. I think this year with Martin, VanBergen, Roh, Campbell and Jake Ryan, we will be able to shut down the run game and pressure Cousins. I fear MSU's running backs and wide receivers but if there is no space or time its hard to make plays.

Gotta pressure with 4 and blitz at the right time. Go Blue!

RationalMSUfan

October 12th, 2011 at 10:48 AM ^

But you need to drop the MMartin chop block thing. If you recall, Molk was called for a chop block in that game as well. It is regrettable, but MSU DOES NOT have a history or reputation for chop blocking.  Watch the tape of all the MSU/UM games under Dantonio and you will not find a pattern.

Again, it is regrettable, but it is not a normal tactic.

joeyb

October 12th, 2011 at 11:23 AM ^

I'm not sure that he was saying that game would have been a win for us if you didn't chop block. I think his point is that this defense was very different without him last year. After he got injured, teams kept chop blocking him to reinjure the not-quite-healed ankle. Wisconsin even admitted to it.

markusr2007

October 12th, 2011 at 10:57 AM ^

I'm still confused. On one hand the MSU interior line is supposed to be pretty good-to-solid, yet MSU is rated 10th in the league in rushing (129 ypg) just ahead of the Hoosiers. This 129 YPGincludes stats against presumably weak run defenses in YSU, FAU and CMU.  With the BBC trio (Bell, Baker and Caper) , MSU has arguably one of the best backfields in the BIG conference, so with your comments about the OL above, I'm even more surprised that MSU has not manballed opponents into submission with those backs?

2nd QUESTION: With so many players back this year for MSU at the key skilled positions, do you have any idea why MSU is only 72% (25 attempts, 14 TDs, 4 FGs) from the red zone so far in 2011 compared to an impressive 87% over 12 games in 2010? 

(Michigan has been lethal inside the 20 this year at 93% (28 attempts, 22 TDs and 4 FG)

3rd QUESTION: So Dan Roushar as OC, what's his report card 5 games in?

 

 

 

SpartanBDF

October 12th, 2011 at 11:11 AM ^

That really the answer to question three answers questions one and two. Thus far I've not been terribly impressed with Roushar. I don't think he's been doing a great job keeping us in manageable down and distances. When we're in 3rd and long we're frequently in 3rd and long. 

Our offensive line has suffered billions of injuries. Maybe more and we've not done an adequate job replacing those injuries. It's difficult to MANBALL when you don't have an OL that can win the point of attack. So all of that stuff leads to poor red zone and rushing performances, IMO.

RationalMSUfan

October 12th, 2011 at 11:17 AM ^

1.  I said good "compared to the tackles". Flat out our OLIne has not been good as a unit. No sugarcoating it. I don't think we will have a man ball OLine all year. I think best case scenario is to be average running the ball and throw it more.

2.  It is maddening, but I think it comes back to the inability to run the ball and some bad decisions/play calls.

3.  Roushar has earned a "C". A lot of people feel we miss Treadwell. The jury is still out.  Not sure if it is the arrows or the indian.  Treadwell being OC would not improve our OLine.  With that said, Roushar got an "F" in the NDame. He really tried to be too smart. We ran the unbalanced formation and trick plays and never settled into our normal offense.

SpartanBDF

October 12th, 2011 at 11:03 AM ^

Kicker is good. Conroy isn't on fire 14 of 15 like he was last year, but he's dependable inside of 40 and makeable inside of 50.

Sadler the punter is a redshirt freshman and still kicks some line drives. He also had a heck of a save on a wet ball at OSU. I think he's going to continue improving.

KR is solid. Nick Hill is returning kicks such that we don't miss Bennie Fowler or Keshawn.

PR is scary. Keshawn Martin has looked timid since he fumbled a Punt Return against YSU in the first game of the season.

KR coverage is bad. Like worse than 100th in the nation bad. Also they gave up a touchdown against ND.

PR coverage seems to be fine, I can't think of anything that stood out either way.

ND Sux

October 12th, 2011 at 11:00 AM ^

it is to post on here, maintain some objectivity, yet still maintain your loyalty to MSU.  I +1'd you for the effort.  You have some good points, except for one...NO WAY in hell MSU holds Michigan to 14 points.  If you hold us to double that, I'll be impressed. 

The NW offense scared me more than MSU's, mostly because of the line issues.  If we can stop the run, MSU is burnt toast. 

I'm picking Michigan by TEN or so. 

RationalMSUfan

October 12th, 2011 at 11:20 AM ^

17? I think your defense is greatly improved, but your offense hasn't scored more points than last year.  This also goes along with my prediction of MSU winning the game. If UM wins, they will score more.

 

Also, I think it is the style of play. I think both coaches will be conservative in the 1st half and I see a low scoring game.

 

We'll see......It's just a prediction, not the gospel.

3rdGenerationBlue

October 12th, 2011 at 1:08 PM ^

Thanks for posting some reasonable points but I doubt that Hoke and Company will play conservative. As Borges said recently, he plans to "empty the drawer" of offensive plays he calls. The coaches realize that at 6 - 0 they are playing with house money - a win in EL has more positive ramifications than negatives for a loss.

DesHow21

October 12th, 2011 at 11:37 AM ^

If bad Denard shows up for more than a half (so 3-4 interceptions), we could be in trouble when you factor in the fact that MSU defense is pretty darn good and can possibly end at least 2-3 possesions other than those without giving up points. 

So if you take out 5-7 possessions, 14 may not be out of the realm of possiblity. The odds of it happening are *very* low and it would take a Rich Rodian level of incomeptence (in making in-game adjustments and calming Denard down) to achieve it, but it is possible. Do not forget how shaky our special teams have been this year, we have just been lucky it hasn't bitten us in our ass yet.

I hope to god we don't Yakety Sax this game away (that is the only way Sparty pully it out in my opinion).

mfan_in_ohio

October 12th, 2011 at 11:07 AM ^

I wouldn't say MSU "ran the ball ok" until the fourth quarter.  I think MSU had about 1.6 YPC in the first half.  I remember because OSU was a tenth of a yard behind at 1.5 YPC.  But let's take out the fourth quarter stats and look at the rushing totals.  The fourth quarter (after the endzone INT at the beginning of the quarter) saw 10 rushes for 13 yards, including the kneel at the end.  That leaves MSU with 21 rushes for 58 yards.  2.8 YPC is hardly impressive.  Let's go further and take out the Cousins fumble and the 6-yard loss on the first snap.  That leaves 19 rushes for 70 yards.  So if we take out all the negative plays and the plays where, supposedly, MSU wasn't really trying to gain a lot of yards; basically, if you only count the good plays, MSU still only had 3.7 YPC.  I would hesitate to call that "ok."

UMfan21

October 12th, 2011 at 11:09 AM ^

I've watched all the MSU games and what I've seen is their reliance on the play action.  I think if UofM wants to play them stout, our LB's are going to be the key.  We can't bite on the play action and misdirection stuff.  Cousins and Cunningham will have their yards.  But, if we can shut down the run game and not bite on the play fakes, it should be a good day for the maize and blue.

ijohnb

October 12th, 2011 at 11:43 AM ^

of Fowler has limited Martin's productivity.  He is still very dangerous.  I expect him to have a breakout play this weekend.

You have good backs, but I just see your running game as playing into the teeth of our defense.  If Dantonio has some sense, he will run out of the shotgun semi-spread or try to kill us with sweeps and bubbles.  That "unbalanced line" debacle that he brought out against ND is not going to get it done, neither is running over left tackle.

I have to be honest with you, and at the peril of eating my words, i think Cousins has been exposed to a certain degree this year.  He is throwing Denardesque interceptions and has just not looked comfortable at all.  I think the bye week will probably help to settle him down a little bit. 

This is going to be a great game!!

TIMMMAAY

October 12th, 2011 at 12:44 PM ^

I was with you until I got to your score prediction. Then I loled. We'll score more than 14, book it. I'm not saying we'll win, but there's no way you guys hold us to 14 points. 

3rdGenerationBlue

October 12th, 2011 at 1:00 PM ^

Clearly this will not be an easy game for Michigan to win but I took a look at MSU's roster and they lose a lot of talent after this year. If the Spartans win they should savor it because it will probably be their last one for a while. Curious about what other people think...comments?