SB Nation: Michigan and Iowa projected for the Big 10 Championship
SB Nation has an article up this afternoon entitled,
LINK: Projecting the Big Ten race, in which . . . Iowa and Michigan have the upper hand?
The article looks at the S&P+ numbers through Game 5, and is very positive about Michigan's chances. Here are severalhighlights:
Ignoring preconceptions, Michigan has clearly been the best team in the East so far. The Wolverines have had by far the best defense in a great defensive conference, and their résumé features two of the division's most impressive performances. A dominant shutout of BYU that beat Nebraska and Boise State and nearly beat UCLA, and a tight loss at a Utah that destroyed Oregon in Eugene (which happens to be the most impressive Michigan State home victim).
While we wait, the numbers suggest the division is Michigan's to lose. That changes if Michigan State takes the Wolverines down in Week 7, but it would take a significant upset for us to learn much this weekend. Michigan's 83 percent win probability against Northwestern might feel high, but Ohio State's (88 percent against Maryland) and Michigan State's (88 percent against Rutgers) do not. The Buckeyes and Spartans should cruise, and Week 7 will be when this race begins to truly take shape.
To me, the question isn't whether Michigan's for real. It's whether Ohio State and Michigan State are ready to look the part. Scoff if you want, but they haven't. Michigan and Iowa in the Big Ten title game. That's what we all expected to see, right?
October 8th, 2015 at 12:30 PM ^
Maryland is currently ranked in #114 in total offense and #109 in total defense. That means that every team on our schedule, save PSU, is better equipped to move the ball on us and every team on our schedule, save Indiana, is better equipped to prevent us from moving the ball. I would certainly hope we would be able to put up 28 points on them. Against a team with a pulse, how we played against Maryland gets us shutout and we're playing from behind in the second half.
October 7th, 2015 at 10:10 PM ^
the ball. Figuring on field goals and a solid running game. I don't expect N00M. But my biggest fear is the dreaded turnover - a pick 6 could be the difference between happy Saturday, rough Sunday morning and sad Saturday, really rough Sunday morning.
October 8th, 2015 at 7:51 AM ^
So could a special-teams play, and there we have the edge.
October 7th, 2015 at 4:59 PM ^
But no one will believe it.
October 7th, 2015 at 4:59 PM ^
to report on growing trends it sees happening in the world, whether it's Trump or the Kardashians. You could put Harbaugh in that trending category, obviously, because his popularity has risen way beyond the confines of Ann Arbor.
Here's the thing, though, he doesn't court the attention. He just attracts it. And the fact that his coaching is producing immediate results that not even the preseason pundits wanted to confirm before they could, and now they can push that agenda, well, you are seeing what happens when that occurs.
Let's be clear: the table was set for this program. It wasn't like there wasn't talent in the program. Harbaugh and staff are just great at making it all work, and of course, we love the results while knowing this team is very mucb a work in progress and still undergoing serious testing.
As quick as the spotlight has shined, it can disappear. Don't really care about that. Am happy knowing this team will do nothing but get better. Let the pipers keep on piping. We just follow the yellow brick road, baby.
October 7th, 2015 at 5:03 PM ^
I'm going to follow the usual mantra of a Michigan fan not being happy unless they are miserable.
There's such a thing as too much praise too soon. We haven't played the real meat of our schedule yet. I'd almost prefer it if the press were overlooking or disrespecting us.
October 7th, 2015 at 5:11 PM ^
I'm with you. The hype seems premature. If we get through the next two weeks with wins, then all bets are off and I'm declaring Michigan wins the NC and the Super Bowl by 5000 points, but until then, all the hype and attention has me worried as only a Wolverine fan can be.
October 7th, 2015 at 6:54 PM ^
no need to worry, the enlightened says the next two games will be wins. Unless something seriously goes wrong. My only question is about NW's defense. Are they good or very good? That's their only chance of winning. State is going to get round house kicked right in the mouth.
October 7th, 2015 at 9:57 PM ^
If the enlightened includes Jose Feliciano, you can't go wrong. With Jose Feliciano ya got no complaints.
October 7th, 2015 at 5:17 PM ^
...I don't think we're trying to be miserable. I just prefer Michigan to be lying in the weeds, because I think it's easier to win games from that position.
October 7th, 2015 at 10:15 PM ^
Lying in the weeds. With our profile, it just isn't possible.
October 7th, 2015 at 5:25 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 5:03 PM ^
Why are we talking about the Big Ten Championship when we should be talking about Rich Rod and his son???
October 7th, 2015 at 5:06 PM ^
October 7th, 2015 at 5:24 PM ^
I've felt this "we are back" feeling before, with RR and Hoke, but this time it feels a little different. It isn't based on bend-yoga-style-but-don't-break defense or hope-for-the-ball-last offense. Nonetheless, I'm cautiously optimistic because our D looks legit, albeit against not the greatest of offense. The, however, doesn't instill confidence in me. Saturday can't get here soon enough. Hoping for a convincing win.
October 7th, 2015 at 5:24 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 5:25 PM ^
October 7th, 2015 at 6:43 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 6:46 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 8:54 PM ^
October 7th, 2015 at 5:34 PM ^
October 7th, 2015 at 5:35 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 5:35 PM ^
Granted, we have Harbaugh now, but I'm not counting my chickens. As far as I'm concerned, this conference is OSU's to lose until someone personally dethrones them.
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October 7th, 2015 at 5:48 PM ^
When was the last time we had that? 2011--almost. 2006 definitely. But there's no equaivalent to 2006 OSU right now either. There are 3 hard teams left on our schedule (NW, MSU and OSU), and they are all at home. And there's one very difficult road environment (PSU), and they suck much worse than their record indicates.
I'd still be surprised if we won the Big 10 East, but I think we're in it, and I think we're on track for 9 wins at present, with 10 a possibility.
October 7th, 2015 at 5:45 PM ^
...whether we can RPS them enough to keep them from just stacking the box and flooding the gaps. If we can, we are going to score enough points to beat them. And, for all the talk of how good their offense was going to be this year, our defense has been much better.
On the other hand, whether we *can* RPS them enough to do that is unclear. Our coaches will have great schemes drawn up, but the strength of our offense goes right into the strength of their defense. Rudock will have to hit some deep balls, or Harbaugh will have to create some utterly confusing situations, in order to get things going. But right now I think we take them in a dogfight.
OSU, unfortunately, I expect to have ironed out the kinks by the time we play them. I know anything's possible in a rivalry game, but I have a hard time thinking our chances of winning that one are 50+%.
October 7th, 2015 at 10:26 PM ^
against OSU/MSU. I think we will be able to run on NW. But I am not comfortable that we have enough offense to overcome a team that is just as strong as we are in the trenches. If we can't have success running the football, and we can't throw it over the defense, it makes it pretty easy to concentrate on shutting down the rest of our game. We would need another shutout and some good field-goal kicking...
On the other hand, it feels really, really good to be having this kind of discussion again, no matter what happens.
October 7th, 2015 at 5:48 PM ^
You guys know how Northwestern fans are feeling about this game?
October 7th, 2015 at 5:55 PM ^
October 7th, 2015 at 6:00 PM ^
The Northwestern fans that I know seem to be very confident coming in to this game. In fact, a few of them are planning a "victory parade" through the streets of Ann Arbor after the game. Here's to their disappointment.
October 7th, 2015 at 6:03 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 6:44 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 10:34 PM ^
much talk about us outside the state of Michigan (at least where I'm at) for a casual fan to pick up on. So my guess is any NW fans who expect to crush haven't paid attention to much outside their own games, and are simply basing that on what they've seen over the past 7 years. I'd find it difficult to believe that a thinking fan who has truly been paying attention wouldn't be expecting a dogfight.
October 7th, 2015 at 6:08 PM ^
Michigan's 83 percent win probability against Northwestern might feel high, but Ohio State's (88 percent against Maryland) and Michigan State's (88 percent against Rutgers) do not. The Buckeyes and Spartans should cruise, and Week 7 will be when this race begins to truly take shape.
The fan in me likes hype well enough, but yeah, I feel this is taking a leap over the next two games for us at least. If we somehow get to 6-1 after the 17th, then it seems easier to start saying there might be a realizeable shot, but even then MSU and OSU are also going to have to run into some misadventures here and there to make it happen.
October 7th, 2015 at 6:47 PM ^
Maryland is going to do better vs that Columbus bunch than most people believe. And don't be surprised if Rutgers sneaks up on MSU. Sparty should crush them but Rutgers has a few sparks I think.
October 7th, 2015 at 10:08 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 6:15 PM ^
I'm counting my chickens
I'm on the hype train.
I'm a believer
I have drank the koolaid
It is banana time
I'm just HAPPY!
So, instead of just putting up pics and memes, here's the thing. I don't know how the season will end. I don't know how many games we'll win. But it is true, I'm just happy. I feel like Harbaugh and Michigan are going to smash everyone in the mouth. I feel like they are ALWAYS going to compete. I don't have a sinking feeling of dread. I don't feel like Michigan is going to find a way to lose. I never expected it to happen THIS QUICK! But it has. So, I'm happy. I don't care about the media, I don't care about the details, we're heading in the right direction, and I'm on board.
EDIT: I don't know if it is a "Dad song," but they could play "Happy" every week in the stadium. I'd be good with that.
October 7th, 2015 at 6:13 PM ^
than everyone else in the East. It's that simple. It doesn't mean that'll keep happening, you assume Urban will get Ohio State's head and ass wired together eventually. You also assume Sparty will have 30 different tricks ready for Michigan and are just coasting through their schedule until that game.
But to this point, Michigan has looked like a significantly better team than either of them. It's okay to say that!
October 7th, 2015 at 6:18 PM ^
when we beat NW and MSU, the big ten title hype will be justified. But not right now. Right now i would still just love to get to 9-3
October 7th, 2015 at 6:20 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 6:23 PM ^
Ok. I get your point. I personally think the media hype train is already justified, because Harbaugh and Michigan have exceded expections.
But given your point, what is your prediction for our final record? And who do you have us losing to? OSU? MSU? Northwestern?
It will all be a moot point soon . . . we will know a lot more about Michigan after the next two games.
October 7th, 2015 at 9:27 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 10:05 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 6:32 PM ^
This board will downplay them and question how good they really were. It's always the negative around here it seems. The offense is averaging almost 30 points a game but reading this board you would think it was 10 points a game. Remember when the narrative was there are no explosive/big play threats, well there have been about five 30 yard or longer TDs in the last few games and thats not even mentioned. Can we stop moving the goal posts every week as to what is good? Before BYU it was all about how it was a great litmus test and after, the game is minimized with numerous qualifiers and rationalizations. But my biggest annoyance is with anyone who takes exception to a half of football and reads into it. The game of football is 4 quarters, how about focusing on the game itself and not some arbitrary part of the game. Whats next, critiques based on the 1st qaurter?
October 7th, 2015 at 6:57 PM ^
Having endured the last 7-8 years of dashed expectations, it is very hard not to be overly cautious going into each game. It feels like we are just waiting for the shoe to drop. Too much hope, and then it just all gets crushed again.
I look forward to the day when winning is the expectation again. I'm hoping that we get lucky and HARBAUGH brought this to us early, but that fear is still there, like a beaten puppy cringing as someone tries to pet it.
October 7th, 2015 at 7:12 PM ^
Look at how the games are played. Look at what goes on along the sidelines, look at how the squads: Defense, Offense, ST, look as they line up. Look at the execution of plays. I submit that we've seen more professionalism and competency over the last five games than we have in the previous seven years combined.
October 7th, 2015 at 10:02 PM ^
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October 7th, 2015 at 10:49 PM ^
We are now experiencing Michigan football fandom as it should be. As it always was prior to 'The Horror.' The team is good enough to win every game, and good enough to be EXPECTED to win most of them. Now we fret over whether it will actually happen. THAT is how it is supposed to be.
And, as disappointing as it would be if we don't win out (!!!), we now have a very reasonable EXPECTATION that next year will be better. And it is a great feeling!
I don't know about you all, but this is what I grew up with and experienced for well over 30 years and I welcome every single wonderful second of it back with open arms!
October 7th, 2015 at 11:03 PM ^
October 7th, 2015 at 7:05 PM ^
I'm completely with you. First it is one thing, then another.
- Not enough Big Plays. Oh, we have those? They must be a fluke, and not real. Or, they're not passes.
- Not enough completions of more than 10 yards downfield. We have them? Oh, it doesn't count if the pass wasn't more than 10 feet in the air.
- Not enough YPC for the RB. Oh, we have that? Well take out the long runs then.
Right now, Rudock can't throw, and he throws too many interceptions. Smith can't see the holes, and get more than 4 YPC. Glasgow has too many offsides penalties. Chesson can't catch the ball well and has bad hands.
Nothing would make me happier than to see NW & MSU crowd the box and the LOS and dare Rudock and Harbaugh to win the game passing downfield. And then see Rudock rip them to shreds. The spider spins its web, lures its prey, and then traps and kills it. I hope that happens, and the negative nancys and debbie downers shut up for a while.