SB Nation: Michigan and Iowa projected for the Big 10 Championship

Submitted by StephenRKass on

SB Nation has an article up this afternoon entitled,

LINK:  Projecting the Big Ten race, in which . . . Iowa and Michigan have the upper hand?

The article looks at the S&P+ numbers through Game 5, and is very positive about Michigan's chances. Here are severalhighlights:

Ignoring preconceptions, Michigan has clearly been the best team in the East so far. The Wolverines have had by far the best defense in a great defensive conference, and their résumé features two of the division's most impressive performances. A dominant shutout of BYU that beat Nebraska and Boise State and nearly beat UCLA, and a tight loss at a Utah that destroyed Oregon in Eugene (which happens to be the most impressive Michigan State home victim).
While we wait, the numbers suggest the division is Michigan's to lose. That changes if Michigan State takes the Wolverines down in Week 7, but it would take a significant upset for us to learn much this weekend. Michigan's 83 percent win probability against Northwestern might feel high, but Ohio State's (88 percent against Maryland) and Michigan State's (88 percent against Rutgers) do not. The Buckeyes and Spartans should cruise, and Week 7 will be when this race begins to truly take shape.
To me, the question isn't whether Michigan's for real. It's whether Ohio State and Michigan State are ready to look the part. Scoff if you want, but they haven't. Michigan and Iowa in the Big Ten title game. That's what we all expected to see, right?
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Gofor2

October 8th, 2015 at 10:15 AM ^

iIn the Big Champ. Game is about the dumbest projection anyone can make right now. Neither team has beaten Anyone, both have one dimensional offenses, but worse is MSU and OSU stand in the way. UM is off to a good start, but don't act drunk, your currently 1 touchdown better than NW when your at home. Michigan is still a team that has a long way to go to run with MSU and OSU. A long way to go.

Joined: 12/13/2014

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Nitro

October 7th, 2015 at 7:58 PM ^

The counterpoint to "letting it get to your head" arrogance is that, when you expect to win because you're confident in your abilities, it's harder to accept losing, so you tend to grind it out a little harder.  After the last couple years, an ego boost is probably good for this team to be able to play up to and increase their capabilities. 

Joined: 04/27/2013

MGoPoints: 17041

Leonhall

October 7th, 2015 at 4:45 PM ^

Man there is a lot of hype about us lately...I thought we looked flat against Maryland and immediately wondered if the kids were buying the hype...I'm cautious, however I feel great because Harbaugh is in charge, I just find it hard to believe we could be horrible last year and this year go 11-1...I will judge after this weekend and MSU



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alum96

October 7th, 2015 at 4:58 PM ^

If the defense was flat in the 1st half I'd agree with you about the buying hype crap.  Also if Harbaugh was not the coach.

Since the defense remained stellar and it was the same offense that goes long stretches in most games looking flat, I just chalked it up to "that's our offense without Smith" thing.   rudock can't / won't stretch defenses so stacked lines it is the rest of the year.  Isaac and Green can't do anything with stacked lines.  So Smith  + Johnson it is.  And one was gone in this game and the other still getting into his top form.

Joined: 04/28/2012

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spigmoni

October 7th, 2015 at 10:50 PM ^

Also, the beauty of having good coaching is that the 3 phases of the game are fluid in nature game to game as the season progresses.  The old adage exists for a reason, defenses are going to be ahead of the offenses early on.  It takes a lot of repetition on offense as offenses are based on precision and 11 players hitting all cylinders at the exact same time.  The offense will come... Now i'm not sure that we'll have an A+ offense this year, but you need an average to decent offense with this elite level defense.  Defense wins championships.  Lets goooo

Joined: 08/11/2012

MGoPoints: 1248

BlueCube

October 7th, 2015 at 10:59 PM ^

from the start of the game. What gives me confidence is that if it's not working, the staff sees it and immediately runs plays to counter what the defense is doing successfully. Last year you had to wait for halftime if you ever saw a successful change to the game plan.

Joined: 12/12/2013

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M-Dog

October 8th, 2015 at 7:36 AM ^

And you often did not see it even then.

There is no doubt that our coaches wanted to run the ball down Maryland's throat.  Just like WVU and a MAC school did.  But for some reason, we couldn't, even though the weather was not a large factor and had minimal impact.

Maryland's defense is not extremely talented, but they are very quick, especially side to side and in filling gaps.  When ever a Michigan RB got to the LOS, somebody from Maryland was there, already with a running start.  

When it became clear Plan A was not going to work - no matter how good it looked in practice - they did not dwell on it.  They adapted to what they could do.   They exploited Maryland's quickness and reckless pursuit and got them out of position with screens and a jet sweep to score three quick TDs.  

There was no 27-27.  There was a Plan B and a Plan C, already practiced and ready to go.  That's one of the biggest differences from the previous regime.

 

Joined: 07/06/2008

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Tyrone Biggums

October 7th, 2015 at 9:27 PM ^

Why is it so hard to believe? 2012 Auburn went 3-9, 2013 12-2 and lost in the title game with a first year coach. This is exactly why Harbaugh is here, to win. I don't understand all the posters saying its too soon for anything. With winning comes the hype. Harbaugh and everyone on this team want to win now. Some of the fans here have PTSD. It's okay to be excited. It's happening.

Joined: 01/16/2013

MGoPoints: 4720

spigmoni

October 7th, 2015 at 11:07 PM ^

This.  Precisely.

Watched Northwestern, they are good on defense, they're small but quick, sideline to sideline, and disciplined.  Their offense is attrocious and will not score on our defense unless our offense hands them a freebie turnover.  

We'll find out this weekend, but this weekend is going to be a fantastic measuring stick.  I think their secondary is better than state's and while they may not have the talent of the MSU/OSU defensive squads, at this point of the season they may be the best disciplined defense we see. If we can get our offense going well enough, which I truly believe we do running downhill right through the teeth of their defense (between the tackles), I think we cruise and then the hype levels we will have to just accept as is.  Get ready for the hype Ladies and Gents if this happens.  

Joined: 08/11/2012

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boliver46

October 7th, 2015 at 4:47 PM ^

to drink the Kool-Aid as much as the next fan...but this seems outrageous at this point.

We take down MSU and I'll start drinking...even if this guy is serving:

 

 

Joined: 09/14/2012

MGoPoints: -3374

alum96

October 7th, 2015 at 4:55 PM ^

I think Iowa and UM have 2 quality wins between them at this point out of 10 games.  BYU  Wisc.  I guess you can give Iowa Pitt if you want.

It's a bit over the top but what the hell.  Iowa does avoid UM MSU OSU so I can at least see the logic statement there.  NW avoids MSU and OSU so I still like them to win the West at this point even if they lose this week.  Defense wins championships ?

By the way both Conklin and Kieler practiced Tuesday for MSU so looks like they will have both tackles back for the UM game.

Schedule gets tougher from here save rutgers so it will be interesting to see how the team reacts.

Joined: 04/28/2012

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spigmoni

October 7th, 2015 at 11:16 PM ^

Nice drama but that is very far away.

My favorite drama of the year however would be the Shakespearan (dare I say Greek?) tragedy if we beat State after they finally get the respect of being ranked in the top 5 after clamoring for respect all these years.  They finally get ranked high for a team that honestly doesn't have nowhere near the defense of the past few state squads.  

Joined: 08/11/2012

MGoPoints: 1248

joeyb

October 7th, 2015 at 4:57 PM ^

I don't care what the numbers say. I don't care how good our defense looked. If we can't put up points, we can't win the game. The first half of that Maryland game scares the crap out of me. If I see us consistently moving the ball against NW, I will feel much better about our chances with the rest of the schedule, but I'm preparing myself for M00N part 2.

Joined: 10/12/2008

MGoPoints: 16845

charblue.

October 7th, 2015 at 5:07 PM ^

This offense is still working out the kinks. It may be awhile before it runs as well as it can, and who knows what that will look like. But I can assure you of this, Michigan is better equipped to deal with Northwestern than it is with Michigan. And that is because it has better athletes and the coaching to make that athletic edge a winning one.

Unless the offense implodes, I look for Michigan to win all three phases of Saturday's game and come out with another solid victory.

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