SB Drops in rankings
As I sit here in Hong Kong waiting for my flight back to Detroit, I gandered at this week's rankings for D1 SB. The Tournament Committee does not ENTIRELY use any of the 3 major rankings. Other factors, such as geography, play a large part of the decision making.
We did not finish the season very strong. The losses to Ill and Wiskey certainly hurt us and our chances for hosting a Super. My guess is that we do NOT host a Super. Here are the 3 rankings:
RPI: We dropped one spot from 17 to 18. Minny is 17 and Nebraska is 19.
USA Today / Coaches: We dropped from 7 to 10. Minny is 15 and Nebraska is 18.
ESPN / USA Softball: We droppeed from 6 to 11. Minny is 16 and Nebraska is 18.
We will certainly be in the top 16 and host a Regional. My guess is that Minny or Nebraska will also host a Regional as well (geography will help them somewhat).
What is the likelihood of Michigan hosting a Super Regional (assuming we win the Regional round)?
We'd have to win the big ten tournament to have a chance. Beat the winner of Iowa/Illinois on Friday. And then likely play Wisconsin followed by Nebraska/Minnesota on Saturday. If we get seeded as a top 8 and win Regionals then hosting supers is automatic correct?
Michigan has to do some work this weekend to even host a regional. As MGoSoftball points out, M is currently 18th in the RPI.
In both 2012 and 2013, they did not distribute regionals geographically, but instead simply gave regionals to the top 16 seeds. The top 16 seeds went almost exclusively to the top 16 teams in the RPI. So unless Michigan can move up a couple of spots, don't expect to see a regional at Alumni field.
The good news is that since this is conference tournament week, at least 12 of the 17 teams ranked above Michigan will lose a game this weekend. The other good news is that Michigan will have a chance to beat 2 top-40 teams themselves.
What Michigan will need to do this weekend is absolutely win on Friday against Iowa/Illinois and win at least one game on Saturday as well. If they do that--make it to the Big Ten Tournament championship game--they should move into the top 16 and get a regional at home. Unfortunately, Michigan has essentially zero chance to move into the top 8. For Michigan to host a super-regional, they would have to win their regional and hope that the top-8 seed that they are paired with (Alabama or UCLA seem likely) loses their regional. Given recent tournament history, that is very very unlikely.
I did not think about the possibility of losing the first game. If we do, we are toast and heading to KY or Tn for the #2 spot in their Regional.
We MUST kick some ass in order to host a Regional. A Super is out of the question at this point.
It's a shame, they have had yet another great season, but the wheels seem to have loosened up a little (not fallen off, just loosened) over the past couple of weeks. Hopefully they can get it tightened back up now that it is tourney time.
It looks to me that they need to quit rotating pitchers and ride Betsa's arm as far as it will take us.