MetricSU

August 28th, 2012 at 4:57 AM ^

So we don't know how much of a dent there has been. There's no doubt that what Hoke has done in his one season and with recruiting, have been impressive.

I also agree that MSU is unlikely to be talked about as an "elite" football program -- now or anytime soon. You think we MSU fans don't get that U-M has long been dominant -- except for the past handful of years -- and will continue to be in the national picture? It would take serious mismanagement for U-M not to be up there -- given its history and resources.

But here's the thing. MSU is not going away. I chose the last five years as the window because that is Dantonio's era. As several have pointed out, Dantonio is unlikely to leave and he has shown to be good at developing 3 start talent. MSU will have mediocre years, but it will be more of a competitor than it has been. Why so much talk when MSU has won four years in a row? I've heard talk from U-M fans for three years about how this year things will return to normal. But no games have been played yet. Until then it's all talk. I sense insecurity here about MSU because you know MSU shouldn't be able to compete with you regularly.

Joined: 08/22/2010

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PurpleStuff

August 27th, 2012 at 7:07 PM ^

MSU got good because Jim Tressel and Lloyd Carr didn't recruit guys like Jerel Worthy, Kirk Cousins, Johnny Adams, Keyshawn Martin, Trenton Robinson, Joel Foreman, BJ Cunningham, Greg Jones, etc. all of whom committed to State before Rich Rodriguez got hired.

In RR's first full recruiting class (2009), he passed on Andrew Maxwell (hasn't really seen the field yet) and instead signed Denard Robinson (I don't think I need to list his accomplishments).  State got Edwin Baker (had a very good sophomore season but fell off last year and is no longer with their program) and Larry Caper (<800 yards in his career w/ 9 TD).  Michigan got Fitz (1,000 yard season last year) and Vincent Smith (>1,100 yards in his career and 8 TD, plus another 361 through the air with 6 more TD). 

On the lines, MSU took 4-star David Barrent from Iowa (left the program due to back problems without making a start), Henry Conway (played in 4 games on OL, never started, 2nd string going into this season), Denzel Drone (28 tackles, 5 TFL at DE, moved to TE in the offseason where he is 2nd string going into this season), Dan France (started last year at OT, getting some 2nd team all-conference buzz this preseason), Corey Freeman (11 tackles, 3.5 TFL, never started, projected backup this season), Jeremy Gainer (never started and not expected to this year, 11 career tackles at DE), Nate Klatt (never started, projected backup this year), Micajah Reynolds (hasn't started, flipped between offense/defense, projected backup next year at DT), and Blake Treadwell (dad was on MSU staff so not someone we had a shot with, started 5 games on defense, 3 on offense, projected starter at guard next year).  So, one guy who has had a quality season as a starter and two guys expected to start this year as seniors or RS juniors on the offensive line.

On the other hand, Michigan signed Taylor Lewan (two seasons as a starter, 2nd team all-conference, projected 1st round pick), Michael Schofield (started 10 games last year and will start this year), Craig Roh (three seasons as starter, honorable mention all-conference last year, 112 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 21 TFL, 3 FF and 1 INT in his career), Will Cambell and Quinton Washington (both projected starters this year)

One DB in MSU's class (Dana Dixon) just transferred to GVSU.  The other (Jairus Jones) has yet to start, has made 28 tackles in his career and entered camp as a backup at safety, not nearly as productive as Thomas Gordon (returning starter) and Jordan Kovacs (entered the program at the same time as a walk-on).  2 of the 3 receivers in the class are no longer on the roster (Patrick White and Donald Spencer) while Bennie Fowler has amassed 195 receiving yards.  Dion Sims has added another 232 yards in his career, but that still is less than Jeremy Gallon put up last season alone.  The kicker they signed has made one field goal.  The one we signed (from, OMG, Florida) just won the Sugar Bowl.

The only position they have an edge at is linebacker where Chris Norman (a Renaissance kid who RR offered) and Denicos Allen (an undersized 3-star from Ohio who no one was clamoring for at the time of his recruitment) have been good players, but we have gotten meaningful contributions from Cam Gordon (key INT against Indiana, fumble return for TD against Purdue, freshman all-american honors) and Brandin Hawthorne (key INT against Northwestern, big third down tackle against ND).

It's a little early to compare the 2010 class (RR's second and only other full class here) but I doubt even you would suggest that we've lost to MSU 4 years in a row because of guys who were RS freshmen last season.

Stop being dumb.

Joined: 04/21/2009

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Jasper

August 27th, 2012 at 7:36 PM ^

PurpleStuff is responding to an idiotic (IMO ... sorry) post by JT4104 that includes this gem:

"... anyone who remotely watches college football can see it had a lot to do with Michigan's sudden 3 yr recruiting run of avoiding the midwest's top talent and going into florida ..."

So simple, so NOT true (as shown above). Even the 'blog debunked the silly idea that Dantonio (a few cases in '09 excepted) tapped the mother lode of 4- and 5-star homegrown recruits to scoop up a bunch of midget Floridians.

It's almost as annoying as the idea that Time Of Possession edges are the cause, rather than the result, of wins.

Joined: 12/30/2010

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turd ferguson

August 27th, 2012 at 5:38 PM ^

It has to be hard to be Sam Webb when you have to go on the radio every day to talk about recruiting even when there's essentially nothing happening with recruiting.  Whenever I hear it, I'm impressed by how well he fills that segment on WTKA.

Joined: 12/09/2009

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BigBlue02

August 28th, 2012 at 2:06 AM ^

Many, many teams were better than us in the recent past, such as Toledo, Purdue, and Illinois. Does that mean all of those teams can talk about how they are national powers?

I also like how, in one sentance, you say MSU has been better than us in the recent past, and in the next say the past doesn't count for shit.

Joined: 06/29/2009

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panthera leo fututio

August 27th, 2012 at 8:28 PM ^

I think the point isn't so much that you need X number of 4-star players to be a competitive team, but rather that teams that are consistent BCS contenders need to be able to win head-to-head recruiting battles against other elite teams. Coaching up underrated 3-stars is great, and it's something that I think Dantonio has done really well at. But relying on that type of talent to comprise an entire roster gives you a best-case scenario of  an up-year Wisconsin/Iowa/Boise St/etc. If you want to compete consistently with the Oklahomas and Floridas and Alabamas of the world, you need elite talent, and Dantonio hasn't, in my opinion, shown any ability to recruit nationally at that level.

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jcouz

August 28th, 2012 at 9:04 AM ^

I take nothing away from MSU and Wisconsin who are primarily composed of 3* players.  Both teams have had a lot of recent success.  Wisconsin, has actually sustained success over an even longer period of time.  Even though both of those schools have had some recent success, they are not national powers and never will be with their level of recruiting.  I define a national power as a team that could actually win a MNC.  If you look at team recruiting rankings since they have gone mainstream (maybe 10-12 years ago) the only teams that have won MNC's are the ones whose average recruiting classes rank in the top 10 nationally.  Tennessee, Florida State, Florida , Ohio, Michigan, LSU, USC, Auburn, Alabama, Oklahoma, Miami, and Texas are all of the schools that have won MNC's since 1997.  Other than maybe Tennessee and Miami (who were top 10 average national recruiters 10 years ago), all of the rest of these schools average top 10 ranked recruiting classes.  So, as much as some fans like to talk about recruiting stars and rankings being a waste of time, it seems that over the past 15 years it is just about the only thing that matters as far as having a chance to win the MNC is concerned.  Just about the only top 10 power recruiting school to not get a MNC in the last 15 years has been Georgia.

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ThadMattasagoblin

August 27th, 2012 at 6:44 PM ^

Go away troll, and MSU has done worse than we did under Carr with Dantonio with those three stars.  Carr could at least make a rose Bowl and win more than 1 BT Championship.  Carr was a great coach, but he's not as good as Yost, Bo, Crisler, and possibly Kipke.  I'd say we are a national power.

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BILG

August 27th, 2012 at 6:54 PM ^

Sparty has had a nice run mostly aided by not only Michigan's decline in the RR era, but tied to some of the specific details defining that decline (ignoring top Midwest talent to go after southern speedsters to fit the spread system).

Totally agree with the analogy that current MSU = Iowa early 2000's.  I think Wisconsin also falls into this boat to some degree, although their relative success can also be traced back to some years under Alvarez.

Current recruiting and facility trends along with the fall of PSU point to the inevitable big TWO returning.  Only enough room for two nationally elite and relevant programs in the Big Ten, Michigan and OSU, especially with PSU implosion and the already declining talen pool of Pennsylvania recruits looking elsewhere.  It will never return to the 1970's levels of lack of parity, but Sparty, Wisconsin, Iowa will always be competing with the fringe 3 star guys, where Michigan and OSU will be recruiting top 10 classes.

Yes, the other Big Ten schools will beat us and have their runs at Big Ten titles, but the talent differences will bare out over time, and in the end "It will be Michigan, again."

Joined: 08/31/2008

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PurpleStuff

August 27th, 2012 at 7:18 PM ^

It is amazing how a blog known for insight and analysis has so many people spouting nonsense about how our former coach recruited and about how MSU built up its program under Dantonio.  If you can explain how adding Odoms, Roundtree, Floyd, Omameh, and Barnum to the tail end of the 2008 class and totally kicking MSU's ass in recruiting in 2009 doomed us to 4 straight losses I'd be really impressed.

Until then, people need to get their facts straight before they regurgitate dumbass opinions/analysis. 

Joined: 04/21/2009

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BILG

August 27th, 2012 at 9:18 PM ^

Quite simple, let me spell it out for you.  MSU, while they like to believe they can recruit nationally, is primarily dealing with a regional midwest recruiting demographic.  Further, their success will be highly correlated to how they do in in-state recruiting, something Michigan dominated prior to the RR era.

OK, so let's use very simple MATH.  When you win an in-state recruiting battle ala UM vs. MSU, it's like a +2.  You get +1 for pulling the player to your side, but they also get a -1 for losing that player.  And in the case of Sparty, those are huge hits, because they can't recruit as successfully nationally as a Michigan or OSU.  This is why Hoke's success in Ohio is cause for such optimism, because such head to head recruiting wins are a +2 against OSU.

So sure, we still pulled in good classes with good rankings, but we weren't cutting Sparty off from the well.  We were getting a bunch of Florida kids that would never look twice at MSU. Add in Dantonio's Ohio ties, (another state in which Michigan has historically done quite well) and we basically opened the door for Sparty to pull in some talent they never would have touched in those two states.

If you need further evidence we can take a look at RR vs. Dantonio in the in-state recruiting battles and where the top 10 players in Michigan HS football were going ever year.  You need to lock up your home turf first.  Even USC with all their 5 star national talent almost always wins the in-state battle against Cal, UCLA, and Stanford.  The Texas-Oklahoma rivalry has long been decided on who wins Texas state recruiting.

Oh, and just so you have some "factual" evidence so you can stop spewing your misinformation, here is a link to rivals for in-state recruting for the state of Michigan.  Even an RR apologist like yourself can notice the difference between 2008-2011 and 2012-2013.  Notice how RR did not dominate in state recruiting and Hoke is owning in-state recruiting.  Take a look at the top 10 in state recruits for each year.  As one who claims others lack evidence to their biased opinions, it is you is actually full of conjecture and bs, as the data suggests.  Good night.

http://hsmichigan.scout.com/a.z?s=207&p=9&c=4&yr=2013

 

Joined: 08/31/2008

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PurpleStuff

August 27th, 2012 at 9:53 PM ^

If you think we are worse off because Rich Rodriguez signed a bunch of really good players from some other states (and some from Michigan) in 2009 while MSU signed a bunch of highly touted in-state guys who proved to be inferior football players, then you are smoking something I would like to try.

As for in-state recruiting, check out the list for 2007 and then continue to angrily blame a coach for delivering a fantastic squad to your favorite team.

Joined: 04/21/2009

MGoPoints: 15969

BILG

August 27th, 2012 at 11:17 PM ^

Let it go man.  I get it, you really wanted him to be successful and the deck was stacked against him.  I was rooting for him as well.  However, this does not change the facts.  He had no top 5 classes, Hoke is working on his second in two years. 

This "fantastic" roster you speak of was non-existant until Hoke took the team over and coached the team up.  This is not a team with Alabama, let alone OSU level talent.  Clearly not the talent levels that Carr was pulling in in the late 90s.

Once again, try to process the point.  Head to head recruiting victories are a +2.  +1 for you, -1 for your opponent. MATH

Joined: 08/31/2008

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BlueTimesTwo

August 28th, 2012 at 1:09 AM ^

I think that you are both right to a degree.  Winning head to head battles does keep talent away from your competition.  At the same time, MSU is not exactly full of 5* guys from Michigan.  Part of the problem is that Michigan had been digging a huge hole at some key positions right around the time of Dantonio's arrival (Never Forget, etc.), meaning that we had many holes to fill before we could field a complete team.  With all due respect to Kovacs, we were starting walk-ons at multiple positions during those years, and we had a year where Nick Sheridan was at times our best option.  Recruiting may tell you the likely trajectory of the two teams, but it doesn't necessarily account for their relative starting points.

Joined: 06/30/2008

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Jasper

August 27th, 2012 at 7:41 PM ^

Is Taylor Lewan a "southern speedster?"

The reality, which even some Sparty fans can't see, is that Dantonio has made hay largely with the Midwestern 3-star run-off. With the exception of '09 he has won very few 4/5-star recruiting battles against UMich (even from '08 - '11).

A bunch of his players in the Rivals 5.5 - 5.7 range have become NFL draft picks.

It's an outstanding achievement really, almost BoiseState-esque. Too bad that he's coaching Sparty and that he's a jacka$$.

Joined: 12/30/2010

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PurpleStuff

August 27th, 2012 at 8:14 PM ^

Dantonio did the same thing at Cincinnati as well.  He put in the groundwork for three years and Brian Kelly walked into immediate success as a result.  The guy knows how to find talent in places other people don't see it or aren't looking.  That is why he will probably continue to be successful at MSU (though I doubt they win 11 games a season going forward).

Joined: 04/21/2009

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WolvinLA2

August 27th, 2012 at 8:25 PM ^

Although I don't totally disagree with you, I don't think that is really a method for sustained success.  He's been pretty lucky to have had a QB the last three years who far exceeded his recruiting level, so when you combine that with a handful of others guys he "dug up," you have a couple pretty good seasons back to back. 

I'm sure MSU will continue to uncover Jerel Worthys Kirk Cousinses and Leveon Bells who the top teams in the Midwest pass on but end up being good-to-very good players, but not enough to win Big Ten titles.  Every year they'll have around 2 starters who are guys we offered but picked MSU, 2-4 more who we didn't offer but end up being better than our guy at that spot, and 16-18 guys who are below our player at that position, either by a little of by a lot. 

I'm not saying that's the case this year, but it will be going forward.  Although you show how RR's recruiting wasn't so bad, it wasn't typical Michigan recruiting, and certainly not as good as Hoke is doing now. 

Joined: 11/13/2009

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BlueTimesTwo

August 28th, 2012 at 1:23 AM ^

Dantonio has done well, but nowhere near what BSU has done.  BSU had one 4-star player on their entire roster last year.  In 2010 MSU signed four 4* guys and one 5*.  Not even remotely close.

Also, during their 4-game winning streak MSU has exactly one quality win over a Michigan team that wasn't also losing to the likes of Toledo, Illinois, Purdue, and/or which had a losing record in the B1G.  That win came in a close game, on the road, played in a trash tornado, largely without Fitz, while our QB was dealing with an infection on his passing arm.  That, and they did beat an OSU team without half of their starters, and they turned a hail mary into a win over Wisconsin.  Meh.  They have had a nice couple of seasons, and could be decent this season. I don't see this being the new normal.

Joined: 06/30/2008

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ThadMattasagoblin

August 27th, 2012 at 10:02 PM ^

We also have 2 heisman trophies since and 400 of our 900 wins have come since 1970.  We're definitely in the top 5 as a program since 1950 even with only that one NT.  We got unlucky a lot under Bo with the 1971 game and the horrible call in the USC game in the 70s.

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