Sam Webb hints on McGary....not good.
Old news is old. Already been confirmed that he's taking a later exam.
EDIT: Maybe not confirmed he's taking a later exam, just that there are later exams. Whether or not he's gone will depend totally on what the evaluators say, IMO. And if SWebb is feeling he's gone, probably a good likelihood he's heard some tea leaves on the evaluators.
I think he's just heard that Mitch is ready to make a really fucking stupid decision.
It's brilliant to bank on that one bottom of the first round team who tells you they're interested.
Because I'm sure the promises they are making you now will be enough to make them pass on that guy who suddenly drops in what is an unusually strong draft.
If you're an NBA team at the bottom of the first round, it's in your interest to have everyone go pro, so that there's something left for you when it's your turn. It's not in your interest to have every kid make a good decision.
"Really fucking stupid" because it would mess with your personal entertainment needs? I take it he does not pay you to be his advisor...
I would have been disappointed if Nik had come back. He had way too much to risk, and it was the right time to go.
I think Mitch is taking a terrible risk. What if his back acts up again during workouts, seeing as he's just at the latter end of a recovery? What if it doesn't hold up under the testing that any interested NBA team is going to put him through?
You only get the chance to do this once.
He's banking everything on a recently repaired back holding up and on nothing above him in the draft breaking unexpectedly, because I doubt there are more than a few teams at the bottom of the first round who have even expressed interest.
But thanks for telling me what I'm thinking.
if he washed out because of circumstance, missed a chance to do something special here and lead this team, and left our asses hanging out in the wind.
No, that is not a double negative I would like.
A couple of weeks ago, Sam said that his gut, based on no real evidence at the time, was that all three were going to go. He was very clear to reinforce that this was an unsubstantiated opinion.
You're right about what Sam said a couple of weeks ago, but he explained this morning on WTKA that he's gone back and forth on this. More recently, it was looking like McGary might return based on the strong advice he was getting from people in Indiana. Now, though, Sam is back to believing that McGary will declare, and a major factor in his decision appears to be his age.
It's important to note this is just Sam's opinion—not based on any insider info.
Sam said he believed all three would go, but he didn't use the word "gut." He only uses that term in very specific circumstances.
are so many quick to assume that Mitch would just blow off an entire academic semester if he declares---based on the rumor of one absence from an exam? It ain't like he's Mateen Cleaves--who did exactly that---but from day 1 of the semester.
Were there full trashbags in his dorm room?
When did Sam take Mitch's surname?
He must have married Mitch's mom, taken her name and then changed his middle name to Webb bc she didn't want to hyphenate.
Damn it. The OP edited the title, so now my comment makes no sense to new thread readers.
Oh jeez. Old news. Not thread worthy.
The exam thing is old news, but Sam's reply isn't.
He thinks he is going pro.
University website says classes just ended today and exams don't start until Thursday.
So there's that.
Not uncommon for some classes to not have their exams during the scheduled time. Or for classes to not have examesat all. Though a few years ago the U tried to put the clamps down on it, but if a prof wants to do it early and all the students want to do it early, then it's getting done early.
Some to most of my classes in college gave the option of having a final exam on the last day of class, or the scheduled time.
Now sometimes scheduled times conflicted, or you'd end up with 3 exams on one day. For this reason, professors gave you the choice. Also it was easy to take the ones you were confident on then cram for 1 or 2 that we're hail mary's or you knew you needed a few days of look over on.
Why can't we have nice things?
it's just that the NBA is willing to pay our nice things millions of dollars while we offer them homework
Ants, that's why!!!
I hate the NBA. That is all.
Webb already said he had a "gut" feeling that all three would be gone. He only says that when he knows for sure.
He said the tide had shifted back shortly after GRIII and Stauskas announced. Now he's basically just saying he thinks it will go a certain way, based on no actual information.
I don't think his opinion is any more relevant in this instance than anyone else who is paying attention.
Can we please just keep our pessimism? You're ruining it.
Some dude said Mitch told some girls he knows that Mitch said he's going to declare for the draft mid-week. Some other dude said Mitch wasn't there for his psych final. Some other people excited to see Mitch enjoying Ann Arbor night life...The last of which I took as a good sign. All you hear from Nik and GR3 is who they are training with and how they are preparing...Mitch doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would just pee away a semester of work for no reason...But who knows.
GRIII is posting pics of him at a playoff game in LA. Nik is talking about boarding a plane to Chicago (where I believe the draft combine takes place).
Mitch may go, but he isn't acting like the guys who are gone. He also can't really get any new info at this point (if rules are followed, everything gets funneled through Beilein and the advisory committee already told Mitch what they think).
I want to blow off all responsibility
Go practice your jump shot.
about him telling some girls he's gone.
Yeah, everything I told girls in college was 100% true too.
He was in Austin, Mass waiting for the feeding. It's gonna be a bloodbath.
Keep piling on /s
Beilein's highest rates recruit like ever and we get, what, 6 really good game sour of him? They came at a hell of a time, but sad.
Seriously. When McGary signed, there was so much excitement. Now, just despair.
Nice edit. Maximus Decimus Meridius appreciates your newly found tact. :)
Maximus was such a downer. I mean seriously, would it have killed him to crack a damn smile every now and then?
"I've seen much of the rest of the world. It is brutal and cruel and dark, Rome is the light."
/son and wife murdered/raped, forced to fight to the death in Rome
I know, right? Why's he always doom and gloom?
Boo hoo. We've all got problems.
I'm sure McGary is sorry that you were not adequately entertained.
Yes as I wrote elsewhere I feel "cheated" by this one simply because we barely got to see Mitch excel. We got 3/4 of a season where Mitch was finding himself, and 1/4 of a season of back hurt Mitch. A guy like Randle was on campus far shorter but we got to see him at peak level for his entire one season.
With Mitch we basically got 8 games or so. He was not "100% Mitch" early this year. So it is sort of like we got a half and done instead of a one and done if he goes.
I keep repeating this but if Mitch goes we lost our entire NC starters to the NBA early. That's crazy considering it was two 3 stars, two 4 stars (Mitch's eventual ranking), and one 5 star. Even if he stayed we lost 4 of 5 within 12 months. And in theory 4 of the 5 could have left within a month of the NC game last year (all except Nik!)
Seriously this shits gettin annoying! Hey mcgary, if u wanna leave then leave already. Damn! And fuck those wings, they piss me the fuck off!
I had anger problems when I was 11 too
why doesn't he accommodate your schedule?
But this is good for the program! Or something like that.
If you listen to Sam on the radio, and I do everyday, he also said that he would not be surprised if this was just another swing in the opposite direction and Mitch's mind has not been made up. He did say Mitch has more of his "circle" trying to get him to return than Glenn did, as well.
You listen daily? I stopped listening daily because they have far too many interviews/guests, take too many phone calls from the same losers daily, and read too many e-mails and tweets. Why do they do this? Because they cannot think of enough things to talk about on their own, so they piggy back on what others say. It is so boring sometimes.
I'm not sure what to think. Manny Harris, Darius Morris, Timmy, GRIII and now - potentially McGary - none of them were guaranteed first rounders and yet they all left or are leaving the program early. Meanwhile, guys like Payne and Kalin Lucas (who was B1G POY as a sophomore) stay 4 years at MSU. Is there something wrong in our program where guys want to get out? Add in transfers (Smot, Horford, Brundidge, Christian, LPP), and I'm starting to get a complex about this!
Way to turn a positive—having a program that churns out NBA prospects—into a negative.
Thank you. Guys like Trey and Nik - whom everyone thinks will be 1st rounders - I get. Just don't understand the mass exodus. Oh well, as you say, I guess it's good for the profile, but only if the guys amount to something in the league. I don't think kids are like, "I want to go to Michigan to be the next Manny Harris or Darius Morris so I can look forward to getting some 10 day contracts in the league!" Perhaps this big 3 - along with Trey and Tim - will give us that rep.
Not playing in the league when you can get a contract is throwing away a year of money. Good money. Great money. More money than I'll see in my lifetime. Why throw that money away?
It's not about your first contract in pro sports. It's about your second contract and if you can make $1M playing professionally, training with professionals and against professionals versus making nothing and training against inferior competition, why would you choose the latter? For the possibility of increasing your stock and your first contract? Throwing away that year of earnings and the risk of injury and/or dropping in stock is often not worth it.
Don't doubt yourself. How do you know you'll never see that much money? Look at Walter White. He started out as a public school teacher.
And it's why NCAA rules have to be completely rethought. Otherwise you only have high level kids in college because you've barred them from joining the NBA, relegating them to a minor league in which they're both underpaid and carrying great risk.
Totally agree. I'd love to see the rule be similar to baseball. Kids are eligible for the draft out of high school. If they're drafted and sign a contract (there will need to be a minor league with pro affiliations) then they forfeit their NCAA eligibility. If they are not drafted - or are drafted but don't sign by a certain date (beginning of fall classes) then they can't go back in the draft for 3 years (ie, after their junior year). This allows colleges to know they'll have players for 3 years and those who don't want to go to school - or have the talent to go to the NBA immediately - the opportunity to do so.
How's that 2nd contract worked out for Darius? I'm not trying to be a dick - I appreciate the money involved here, but 2nd rounders are guaranteed NOTHING - let alone a 2nd contract. And I guess I disagree that working with inferior talent on the college team will make improving his own game harder. Pro coaches suck. They don't teach you the game - they expect you to know it. They manage egos. I'll take Beilein or Izzo or countless other college coaches' ability to teach and develop skills over that of NBA coaches. But that's just my opinion and as we all know, everyone has one.
...guys can work on basketball all the time with personal trainers or whomever else they like. Stauskas noted that he was excited to be able to just focus on the game.
As for Morris, what did he lose financially by leaving when he did? He wasn't going to get taller or much quicker. And going pro gave him more hours to work on his shot.
But work on his shot with whom? It didn't improve. I'd argue a year more working with Beilein could have been very beneficial to his jump shot. But that's just my opinion. I believe in Beilein.
I get your general point but Morris has made $2.5M in career earnings in 3 years i.e. more than 85% of message board poster will make in their lives.
If you work from age 23 to 63 you have to make $62K a year to match that. Not bad work for 3 years and for all his "woes" he can go play in Europe, see beautiful cities for another 7-8 years I am sure while making $200-$300K a year. Then go become a normal functioning adult at age 30-32.
|2011-12||Los Angeles Lakers||NBA||$473,604|
|2012-13||Los Angeles Lakers||NBA||$962,195|
|Career||(may be incomplete)||$2,482,068|
I think it's a huge deal to be a first round pick which means a team is making an investment in you.
the last pick in round one gets about $1M per year for 3-4 yrs guaranteed. the #20 pick gets about $2M per year. and it keeps going up.
i think it's a much smarter play to secure a solid first guaranteed contract and wait one year then risk not getting guaranteed. you are only risking one year of salary to guarantee good $. if you blow up in the nba, the really big money will get to you anyway.
harris and morris are proof that staying the extra year would have been the right choice. both would have been first round picks had they stayed. GR3 and mcgary may both be on the outside looking in.
It's their investment in you - their sunk costs. Their investment of not just a valued pick, but also the dollars they are locked into.
Because this is what makes it so the team has a vested interest in your success, an interest that can mean not just more personal attention and chances on the court, but also more chances overall to work through growing pains and develop into the player that you can be.
Second round picks, the team can take or leave. If you never see the court, who cares? If you have a summer league injury? Adios. The team hopes that you succeed as a 2nd round pick - the team, to at least some extent, needs you to succeed if you are a 1st round pick.
Teams are much slower to give up on their first rounders - second rounders can quickly find themselves in the 10 day contract/NBDL/Europe merry-go-round.
The money Manny's making isn't going to sustain him for his life and the opportunity to earn such money is very limited (players get old and fade away) - he's not rich and will have to have a plan to earn money after his playing days are over. Further, there are a bunch more like Manny Harris entering the league each year - he will be replaced. However, a high first round draft pick is likely to earn enough money to be rich for life as these guys tend to stick around in the league for years (even if not producing much) and if he managed his money properly will not have do get a regular job in his life. HUGE DIFFERENCE.
He's made a lot of money, but it's tough to tell a 20-year-old to be fiscally responsible. I hope he's put some of it away. As for this...
Not bad work for 3 years and for all his "woes" he can go play in Europe, see beautiful cities for another 7-8 years
...it's not as simple to make it big in Europe as a lot of people here seem to think. There aren't many roster spots available to non-EU citizens, and contracts aren't guaranteed. Also, living in a foreign country is quite a bit different than just being there as a tourist for a week.
and you tweak it during workouts.
Congratulations on blowing your one chance at getting an NBA team to make an investment in you.
I can see your point about Harris and Morris, but even with Morris, the Michigan staff can be credited with helping him get as far as he has.
You really shouldn't worry about the transfers. How many transfers has Michigan had over the course of Beilein's tenure? About one a year? That's not at all out of line with the overall percentage of college players who transfer. In fact, studies have shown that 40 percent of men's basketball players will transfer by the end of their sophomore year. That doesn't even account for the increasing number of graduate-year transfers.
Totally agree. Darius was not great as a freshman, but was super as a sophomore (remember Tim Doyle on the BTN calling him the Butterfly because he came out of his cocoon and was becoming a star). Imagine if he had stuck with Beilein one more year? Beilein says he can take good shooters and make them great. Morris' big flaw was his jump shot was poor. Perhaps Beilein could have helped it improve and he could still be a regular in the league now, but instead, he's hanging on with 10 day contracts here and there. I'll agree with you on the transfers - especially since 3 or 4 of them happened in one season (didn't Brundidge, Smot, Christian and LPP all leave after the same season)?
LLP was kicked off of the team, he didn't voluntarily choose to leave
Bottom line: Exchanging those three transfers—Brundidge, Smotrycz, and Christian—for LeVert and Albrecht turned out pretty well for Michigan.
isn't that eva?
But the pic is from Green Acres, where she played a character named Zsa Zsa. I wonder if her sister was amused....?
That's not quite right. Her character's name was Lisa Douglas, but she said in at least one episdoe that she "can talk Hungarian and do imitations of Zsa Zsa Gabor” (according to this article).
I haven't watched that show in something like 40 years.....does this mean I have to fix the meme or will you accept the close approximation?
...that we've had this conversation at all is what makes us the leaders and best.
While I hope McGary stays, the following is my opinion regardless: Something has to change with regard to the relationship between college basketball and the NBA. With college, you have programs and fans who want to keep players as long as possible and players who can't get away fast enough. Something is wrong when the people who make a sport possible drop it as soon as they can...The NBA & NCAA at least need to work out some sort of significant insurance for guys who stay in school.
NBA and NCAA don't need to work together. They each have their agenda and this is where a union or representing body for the players would be beneficial in college. The NBAPA will do it's best to keep younger guys from taking veterans jobs and college coaches just want keep their NBA talent in college for free to help them win.
College (and even h.s.) players are crapped on by their professional counterparts, the NCAA, and the NBA.
No worries guys. I'm only 30 mins from Ann Arbor and drunk. I'll creep campus and see what I can find out.
As long as you drive.
GR3 is in a better position than Mitch in this draft imo. He is built for workouts and combines. If McGary leaves, he'd better hope The Harrison twins and Dakari don't declare.
I am sure he had a good reason for missing an exam. We should not over analyze this.
There's nothing to report until there's something to report.
Losing McGary would be a huge blow, I don't want to sell that point short, but Beilein will adapt to whatever personnel we have. Most everyone wrote us off after losing Burke and Hardaway, and especially after how last season started, and we won the conference by 3 games without McGary anyway, not to mention were a Hail Mary 3 point shot away from a trip back to the Final Four.
There will be no shortage of talent on this team even if McGary leaves. I just hope we've got some solid 2015 big man prospects that have a good chance of joining the fold.
The twist of the knife to McGary leaving would be that guys like Diamond Stone and Stephen Zimmerman apparently didn't see enough success from Mitch to see Michigan as a good place to be a big man.
Maybe they saw enough success in him playing nine or ten good games in his college career and being drafted into the nba as an underclassmen ?
We passed crazy with this topic and we're firmly in looneyville.
Soon we'll be in flight tracker territory...and that's simply when I stop caring.
God forbid Mitch wear any other color but maize or blue until this decision is public.
Its very possible he is taking a later exam seeing how he missed a bunch of class while with the team at the tourney.
I heard that he had such good grades on the first exams that he could skip this one and still pass.
Man, when does any season of UM sports start? This place is like an Irish wake.
Beautiful use of this quote.
I think it would be a mistake in terms of his future, but he should do what he feels is right. It's not for anyone on this forum or anywhere else to decide anyways. I hope he comes back because it would not only benefit Michigan basketball but would probably guarantee him first round status. At the same time, it's his choice, and I hope he does extremely well in the NBA if he gets drafted.
Anyways, he may not get into the first round, but he will be drafted and he will make some roster if he were a second round pick. In my opinion, he's too good a talent not to be able to make a roster somewhere. The thing that he will be risking is the guaranteed three years.
But, but, 2014 was supposed to be different. No way 2014 would take this from us
I'm all jacked up on Mt. Dew
make sure it comes with a receipt. Now take your medicine...
Doesn't he have ADHD? I seem to recall that was a big part of the reason he left Chesterton for Brewster. If that's the case, maybe the University provides him with special accommodations for his exams.
This is exactly what I was going to post. The University definitely lets people with learning disabilities take exams separately in certain circumstances.
MichiganMan14 only posts negative things I'm pretty sure
Sam has always thought all three of the NBA possibles were gone. This is nothing new. Does make the Horford thing a little more frustrating that the family decided they needed a win and made him transfer right when he was about to be the featured big.
Whilst contemplating, sleepless, whether young McGary shall go or stay,
The night was unruly: where we lay,
Our chimneys were blown down; and, as they say,
Lamentings heard i' the air; strange screams of death,
And prophesying with accents terrible
Of dire combustion and confused events
New hatch'd to the woeful time: the obscure bird
Clamour'd the livelong night: some say, the earth
Was feverous and did shake.
And yet for all of that, the answer still eludeth. Methinks young McGary may at some future time reveal his plan, but the fog of uncertainty covereth his intent. Verily, I look to Prophet Webb for guidance.
McGary was at skeeps last night. I'm hungover
I selfishly hope McGary stays, but all this "he should stay its better for him!" nonsense should stop right now. We should be a better fanbase than that.
The lost earnings from staying in school are HUGE. Remember that Europe is out there and pays VERY well. Its not: upside-NBA, downside-bagging-groceries, its: upside-NBA, downside: making a million bucks and being the BMOC in Istanbul, Moscow, Madrid, etc. There are lots of folks - IIRC, over a hundred - of folks in Europe making over $1 million per season calculated on a US basis (European teams calculate salary differently, so apples-to apples is tricky).
McGary is going to be a professional BASKETBALL player. He benefits from having as much time as possible to practice BASKETBALL and being paid to play BASKETBALL. He does not benefit from having to go to class and whatnot. He's as old as most seniors and doesn't need to hide in college for some sort of extended adolescence.
Now, being an upperclassman is freakin' fun, and theres no reason why someone couldn't rationally decide to pay a lot of money - in terms of opportunity cost - to stay at school a year. But a million? Two million? At some point, it's madness.
I have 2 graduate degrees and a BA. I will trumpet the merits of a good education as loud as anyone. But for any player good enough to have a significant professional career in basketball, they should get the hell out of school as soon as they find a professional team that will make it worth their while.
And if they come back, we should recognize that for the charity that it is.
The #12 pick in the NBA draft makes roughly double what the #30 pick does, for each of the first three years of his contract. That gap grows quite a bit if you are pick #31 and not getting guaranteed money.
If McGary increases his stock to that degree, he basically makes up for a rookie season's worth of lost income in year one and is making double the money in year two (roughly an extra $900K). And that is assuming a best case scenario where he is a first round pick this year (something that seems far from guaranteed).
If he's just in a rush to play pro basketball, even if that means living abroad, then fine. But it he wants to make big bucks and have a better shot at an extended NBA stay, waiting isn't such a bad idea.
Its pretty damn rare for a 23 year old to imrpove their stock materially with an extra season in college. I can't think of a recent example. Also, what are the odds that same guy would NOT have improved his stock playing in Europe or a developmental league? He would get to practice more and play against a higher level of competition...
is doing fine - and while I can't tell you he improved his stock, I can tell you that he came in ready to contribute and has a huge role on a playoff team.
He was 23 and was drafted in the first round.
How much is that worth, now that it's clear he's an NBA starter? $3 million? $6 million? How much is an extra year of school worth, if raising your stock is rare and the upside is you go sideways and lose a year to make money?
He may not have been an NBA player before that extra year of development, which you clearly ignore or do not value. Are you telling me that Darius Morris wouldn't have benefitted from another year under Beilein, improving his jump shot? He'd have probably been a first rounder making guaranteed money much more than what he has made, as he hangs in the league by a thread. Your attitude of "instant gratification" - get yours now if you can, clearly works for the LeBrons of the world but a lot of kids could use a year of development with coaches who actually teach skills rather than manage egos. A year of investment in yourself could be worth more down the road, even if you are "sacrificing" a year of salary.
Its pretty damn rare for a 23 year old to imrpove their stock materially with an extra season in college. I can't think of a recent example.
I can think of a guy right up the road. Adreian Payne (who turned 23 this past winter) is now a consensus 1st rounder. He was not a year ago.
it's not hard to imagine McGary doing something much like what Payne did this year.
If only there were some calculation where one could financially calculate the Net Present Value of two options given a set of assumptions... oh well...
To say it's never a mistake to leave is as ignorant as to say it's always a mistake. Each case is different. Forfeiting your college eligiibility isn't a small thing, and if you go pro when you aren't in high demand, you may never be able to get yourself into demand again. Once a guy washes out, he rarely ever has a chance to make it back.
Also, making a good European team is harder than you're making it sound. Most (if not all) leagues have quotas of non-EU players, which makes competition for those few roster spots pretty fierce. Stu Douglass for instance is playing in Spain, but he's not playing in their top league but a second-division one, which doesn't pay much. Americans playing there also have to deal with elevated expectations - European fans expect a lot out of their American players, and they will let them have it if they don't turn out to be superstars. (European sports fans in general are pretty insane - it's not unusual for players to have objects thrown at them from the stands, even from their own supporters.) Playing overseas is a double-edged sword.
McGary is essentially hoping for a contract based off of 4 games in the Tournament last year.
is Always wrong so this is good.
... because of his age and back injury. If he stays, he might hurt his back again and never get drafted - back injuries are notorious for becoming chronic issues. If he goes his draft position might not get him the contract he needs to get to his second lucrative deal.
Don't act like he's a lock to go in round one if he comes back. Don't act like he's a fool to leave. He has a really tough choice with a wide range of outcomes either way.
I just hope his rehab is going well and he's healthy and ready to impress either way.
We can speculate all we want, it's a crap shoot.
Either way poses a risk, stay and he could improve stock/reinjure himself. Go and he could get drafted late and miss out on guarenteed salary.
I love watching him play, know he'll make the best decision for himself and we'll be fine either way. Of course, I'd love to see him stay, but understand if he goes.
I just saw him walking down State St, so there's that.