Sagarin Rankings Week 4 - U-M Opponents
I put together a chart of Michigan's scheduled opponents in order of their week 4 Sagarin Ranking. I listed the current rankings by opponent, the predictive ranking by opponent, the strength of schedule by opponent, and where Michigan plays/played that opponent.
Current - U-M Opponents | Predictive | SOS | STADIUM |
1 Alabama | 102.04 1 | 65.81( 78) | N |
8 Notre Dame | 88.40 10 | 73.97( 15) | A |
21 Ohio State | 82.24 22 | 62.65( 108) | A |
22 Nebraska | 83.88 19 | 60.61( 125) | A |
25 Michigan State | 78.60 30 | 70.17( 36) | H |
28 Purdue | 79.74 25 | 61.63( 117) | A |
37 Michigan | 77.13 35 | 76.39( 8) | - |
40 Northwestern | 75.70 41 | 64.07( 93) | H |
60 Minnesota | 71.96 61 | 61.27( 118) | A |
62 Iowa | 70.79 64 | 65.89( 75) | H |
67 Illinois | 69.56 68 | 66.98( 61) | H |
79 Air Force | 68.36 74 | 59.03( 136) | H |
193 Massachusetts | 42.10 195 | 68.24( 50) | H |
Things of note -
- Michigan has the most difficult schedule of all their opponents thus far (duh).
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The 4 most difficult games for Michigan this year are on the road (or at a neutral location).
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In fact, in order of difficulty with the current rankings, the away games are the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 8th highest ranked opponents.
- The average rank of these opponents is 20 (!)
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The order of difficulty with the current rankings, the home games are the 5th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th highest ranked opponents.
- The average rank of these opponents is 78 (!)
- I realize that it was said over and over how tough this year's schedule would be, the numbers help quantify that for me just how right everyone was.
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In fact, in order of difficulty with the current rankings, the away games are the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 8th highest ranked opponents.
- Out of Ohio State, Nebraska, and Michigan State, only Michigan State has a strength of schedule under 100 (36 to be exact). I'm still holding my verdict on how good Nebraska and Ohio State really are.
- With Purdue's strength of schedule, I'm not sold on them yet either.
Just as food for thought, here is the B1G Conference as a whole.
Current - B1G Conference | Predictive |
21 Ohio State | 82.24 22 |
22 Nebraska | 83.88 19 |
25 Michigan State | 78.60 30 |
28 Purdue | 79.74 25 |
31 Wisconsin | 77.37 32 |
37 Michigan | 77.13 35 |
40 Northwestern | 75.70 41 |
45 Penn State | 75.78 40 |
60 Minnesota | 71.96 61 |
62 Iowa | 70.79 64 |
67 Illinois | 69.56 68 |
99 Indiana | 62.95 97 |
I also realize that it is fairly early for rankings with the small sample size available, just found some of the data interesting enough to post.
September 24th, 2012 at 4:52 PM ^
Does the SOS reflect only who we've played so far, or does it included strength of opponents who we have yet to play?
September 24th, 2012 at 5:15 PM ^
COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2012 through results of SEPTEMBER 22 SATURDAY
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm
So if I read that right, it only accounts for who we have played.
September 24th, 2012 at 7:17 PM ^
If you use these ratings, and assume that all games end up as predicted (using the calculated home field advantage of 2.42), the final Big Ten standings would look like this:
DIVISION X
Nebraska (7-1)
Michigan (5-3)
Michigan State (4-4)
Northwestern (4-4)
Iowa (2-6)
Minnesota (0-8)
DIVISION Y
Ohio State (8-0)
Purdue (7-1)
Penn State (5-3)
Wisconsin (4-4)
Illinois (2-6)
Indiana (0-8)
Michigan's predicted losses are Ohio State, Nebraska and Purdue (!). The Nebraska-Michigan game would be for the division title.
September 24th, 2012 at 7:36 PM ^
that the top FCS team (North Dakota St.) ranks ahead of four B1G teams (Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana). Indiana would be #9 in FCS, Washington State would be #12. N.D.St. would be a ten point favorite over Indiana on a neutral site according to Sagarin, 8 1/2 according to Massey.
September 24th, 2012 at 8:12 PM ^
seems about right from my view point. I cqnt wait for the B1G to begin.