Sagarin Rankings, Sept 26
Sagarin's latest rankings are out. I bolded us and the opponents we've already played.
OSU - 6
Nebraska - 21
PSU - 22
Michigan - 26
Iowa - 27
Wisconsin - 31
Northwestern - 35
MSU - 41
Illinois - 61
Notre Dame - 64
Connecticut - 69
Massachusetts - 84
Indiana - 85
Bowling Green - 94
Purdue - 96
Minnesota - 102
James Madison (36) and Akron (175) still holding strong as the best team in I-AA and the worst team in I-A, respectively.
September 26th, 2010 at 12:56 PM ^
I expect PSU to fall as the season progresses. It's a good thing to see, though, that despite our apparent struggles against UMass, the game was never out of our hands, and we are playing an Indiana team that (according to Sagarin) is worse.
September 26th, 2010 at 12:58 PM ^
Thanks for subtly noting my typo.
September 26th, 2010 at 1:05 PM ^
Haha, no problem. However, I didn't notice a typo. I can only assume it was Sagarin's name as I mess that up a ton. I was implying that Sagarin has his own way of ranking teams but I am still skeptical of the whole process and its validity. I'm not sure if Indiana is, in fact, worse than UMass, but I would say it's safe to say they are better than BGSU, as his ranking reflect.
September 26th, 2010 at 5:09 PM ^
September 26th, 2010 at 5:54 PM ^
Phew, good, because my degree wasn't in advanced math. /s. I know they haven't proven anything yet. That's why I said that I'm not sure if they are better than UMass. However, I stand by my statement that I think Indiana is better than Bowling Green. I guess I'm not sure how to respond to your post. Being that is is filled with sarcasm, I can only assume you are undermining my statement on Indiana.
September 26th, 2010 at 7:08 PM ^
If you use this weeks Sagarin values and add +3 for the home team this is how the season would play out.
OSU 8-0
Iowa 7-1 * (6-2)
PSU 6-2
Michigan 5-3 * (6-2)
NW 5-3
Wisconsin 4-4 ** (5-3)
MSU 4-4 ** (3-5)
ILL 3-5
Purdue 2-6
Ind 0-8
Min 0-8
Two games are a toss up, in that they are less than one point difference. (* Iowa over UM, and ** MSU over Wis.)
This system actually has some validity, as I use it to help beat my son's every year in Bowl Mania. With only 4 games of data vs the season ending 12-13 games I would not bet the farm on this right now. It will be interesting to see how it plays out as the season progress.
I will be happy with 4-4 and overjoyed with 5-3 this season.
September 26th, 2010 at 1:01 PM ^
link? I can only find last week's rankings.
September 26th, 2010 at 1:05 PM ^
I think 8-4 is likely, but it is a bit discomforting to see all 4 teams that we have already played in the bottom 6 of our schedule.
September 26th, 2010 at 1:07 PM ^
On the other hand, it's also nice to see only two teams on our schedule ranked above us, with PSU sure to fall at some point.
September 26th, 2010 at 1:15 PM ^
By the predictor score, which the creator favors as more accurate, Iowa is actually the 2nd best team in the conference, followed by Penn State and then us.
September 26th, 2010 at 3:34 PM ^
I don't get the whole Sagarin thing. If the predictor score is more accurate, then why don't they use that as a basis of ranking teams?
September 26th, 2010 at 4:14 PM ^
That's because the BCS insists on a ranking system that uses only wins and losses and not winning margins, and Sagarin is one of the components of the BCS.
As a result, Sagarin publishes two ratings--(1) a "Predictor" rating, which uses a diminishing-returns margin of victory component and is better at predicting the outcomes of future games, and (2) an "Elo-Chess" rating that ranks teams without the margin of victory component, only using wins and losses, strength of schedule and home advantage. Because they don't want coaches having an incentive to run up the score to improve their rating, the BCS committee uses only the "Elo-Chess" rating from Sagarin.
September 26th, 2010 at 1:39 PM ^
the Temple score was an abberation. which isn't to say JoePa's conservatism makes them worse than they are.
September 26th, 2010 at 6:39 PM ^
In which way was it an abberation - for or against PSU?
September 26th, 2010 at 7:20 PM ^
anything the box score suggested.
September 26th, 2010 at 1:09 PM ^
...with Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue still to come. And Purdue just got worse yesterday by (more than likely) losing Marve for the season to an ACL tear.
September 26th, 2010 at 2:36 PM ^
Has northwestern looked good? Sparty's running game has looked awesome
September 26th, 2010 at 3:36 PM ^
IMO, Northwestern has looked, well, competent. They seem to do what they want to do well, and I expect that will get them around 7-8 wins this year.
September 26th, 2010 at 5:16 PM ^
Sagarin lists NW's SOS as 96 while MSU's as 157.
Thus, with this very simple view of their results, one would expect NW > MSU.
September 26th, 2010 at 1:07 PM ^
Note that our predictor rating is up 1.8 points and 8 spots.
September 26th, 2010 at 2:29 PM ^
Has to be determined by the number of times a monkey throwing darts at a board gets close to a bullseye. You may doubt me, but what other possible explanation is there for PSU?
September 26th, 2010 at 3:32 PM ^
that monkey is throwing feces
September 26th, 2010 at 5:31 PM ^
It swallowed a dart.
September 26th, 2010 at 5:21 PM ^
Clearly, PSU is benefitting from beating Temple, which beat UConn by 14, which stayed within 20 of DRob.
September 26th, 2010 at 5:30 PM ^
You have to remember that Sagarin's ELO-Chess rankings has one hand tied behind it's back by the BCS. Since it's not allowed to consider the margin of victory, it has no way to distinguish a 65-3 smackdown vs a 9-7 squeeker. There's really no reason to pay attention to it when Sagarin's Predictor is better.
September 26th, 2010 at 5:52 PM ^
Still looks like the Sagarin ratings are predicting a 10-2 year for Michigan.
Odd that Penn State would gain almost a point after playing so poorly.