Rutgers @ OSU as a Reasonable Proxy for UM @ OSU
Having watched the pillow fights that were PSU v Rutgers, UM v Rutgers (could be upgraded to comforter fight), and PSU v UM, one can see a lot of similarities in these 3 teams even though the records vary significantly. In fact the PSU v Rutgers and PSU v UM games were remarkably similar in their parallel to watching 2 cows wrestle in mud. Therefore, I wonder if we will be able to learn alot about how we will fare in Columbus by watching this week's Rutgers v OSU game.
It is not a perfect parallel - nothing is - and we can always throw out the cliche "rivalry game! anything can happen!" as something to clutch to for hope.... but those things generally tend to be more true when the massive underdog is playing at home rather than on the road. So I think we'll get a reasonable facsimile of the type of game UM can expect in this Rutgers-OSU matchup Saturday ....while allowing OSU is well coached and will be better in late November than it is today. Something we can't say about ourselves.
Before the season if I handed you Hackenberg, Gardner, and Nova and said pick 1, most neutral observors (including Rutgers fans) would have picked Hack, while most of the UM crowd would have picked Gardner. But per Seth's front page analysis, Nova has been the best of the bunch. I was pretty shocked how bad Hackenberg looked Saturday night and I am seeing a lot of parallels to Devin mid 2013 - when it became clear a sieve OL was creating PTSD like symptoms. So on that alone Rutgers might have the competitive advantage at QB over UM; then we have to allow that by late November Devin might be like that knight in Monty Python's The Holy Grail; wondering where his limbs are. But defiant even without them....because otherwise Shanellomy must play.
- RBs? Rutgers had a top 5 type in the Big 10, but he was hurt. Likewise, UM's top option - not a top 5 in Big 10 back - is hurt.
- OL? The only OL UM holds an advantage on is PSU's. Advantage Rutgers.
- We obviously have the top option on the 2 teams for best WR but see paragraph about Gary Nova - you need someone to deliver the ball consistently or it doesnt matter how good (or not) your WRs/TEs are.
So right now I'd take Rutgers offense over UMs. In fact outside of Illinois (which is basically nothing but the Wes Lunt show EDIT: broken leg) and PSU, I'd probably take any Big 10 offense over UM. So advantage Rutgers.
The defenses are likewise very similar - talented DLs, with questions in the back 7. A dual threat QB from OSU who seems to be growing by leaps and bounds weekly, behind a makeshift OL would reasonably be expected to attack both Rutgers and UM where they are weak - through the air.
And Rutgers can field 11 players often on punts and then proceeds to block kicks a lot so advantage Rutgers.
So here is rooting for Rutgers (-19.5!) to pull the upset! Not just to make those Buckeyes sad but to offer a fighting chance for our Wolverines.
Fun fact: Rutgers' four wins over FBS competition have come against teams with a combined 10-17 record, while Ohio State's four victories have come against teams with a combined 9-15 mark. (UM's mark is 6-11) BIG TEEEEEEEEENNNNNNNN!
October 15th, 2014 at 7:28 AM ^
Even though, as you point out, these hypotheticals can turn out entirely wrong, I still enjoy these kind of analyses. One minor quibble though, unless there really is a Wes Hunt playing for Illinois, QB Wes Lunt is out with a broken leg.
Also, I expect OSU to be much more hyped for the game with Michigan than they will be for Rutgers, but it will be interesting to see how Rutgers fares.
October 15th, 2014 at 7:38 AM ^
Thanks. Didn't realize he broke his leg. Since we don't play Illinois it is probably the program I am following the least in the Big 10.
October 15th, 2014 at 9:33 AM ^
these previews are nice but i think it will turn out diffrent! osu will be better against us with JT berrett getting better and gaining chemistry! Michigan will also improve but michigan/OSU will be a much closer game! like the thread though alot! go blue! Thumbs up for michigan!
October 15th, 2014 at 7:29 AM ^
Michigan to lose in Columbus. Might not be a blowout but it could happen.
OSU could take Rutgers for granted and that won't happen against Michigan. (Even if OSU takes Rutgers for granted, they will most likely kick their teeth in).
If you are going to watch that game, prepare to be depressed. I'd bet anything that Nova won't look near as good as he was against Michigan.
October 15th, 2014 at 7:36 AM ^
To be fair to you, I only read the first paragraph, so you may have other valid points. But you just can't account for week to week changes, turnovers, mood of teams, etc..
Also, we are not good. But I love the optimism in a few threads. It's refreshing.
October 15th, 2014 at 7:46 AM ^
Nah it was not much about transitive results. More about transitive teams.
I think right now PSU, UM, and Rutgers all look like pretty much the same team - all have good DLs, all have back 7s with questions, 2 of the 3 have poor OLs (Rutgers seems ok), none have much of any running game, and the QBs are a curious lot at this point with the 3 teams. So Rutgers being sent into Columbus may be no different then sending in PSU or UM at this point. In fact, one could argue Rutgers is the only one of the three with any ability for explosive plays on offense at this point.
That's the TL;DR version.
I will be curious how Vegas sets our line vs OSU compared to Rutgers' -19.5 to account for "rivalry" and "brand". I was thinking the line would be 15ish for UM v OSU. That assumes Devin still has all his limbs 5 weeks from now.
October 15th, 2014 at 7:46 AM ^
Remember last fall when half the blogosphere had Michigan losing 56 - 6 to St. Urban and Ohio State. Then a quarterback on a broken foot put 41 on Ohio and lost not because they were not every bit the equal of that Ohio State team on that day but because they went for the win and missed the extra point.
I had me a whole giant crew of Ohio State fans around us in my section and watching them, unable to process their team not dominating because that's what 11W, MGo and the internet said was going to happen...it was awesome.
Maybe Michigan plays like Rutgers, maybe they don't. It's the game. Maybe DG plays on a god damned broken foot again, throws for 450 and Michigan wiins by 14.
It's The Game.
October 15th, 2014 at 7:52 AM ^
Agree but in 2013 Devin had some huge games vs Big 5 competition - Notre Dame and Indiana. So there was precedent for him to be heroball v OSU.
2014 has been strange in that there has not been any such game. Maybe he will do it against Indiana. So for it to repeat it would be coming out of the blue (pun).
I think Jeremy Gallon in that Indiana game alone had more chunk plays then UM has had as a whole thru 7 games in 2014.
Also it was at home last year - as I wrote in the OP that is generally when the big underdogs can make a game of it.
October 15th, 2014 at 8:15 AM ^
Ohio State has replaced 4 starters on the offensive line with very few headaches?
Also they have essentially a rookie QB who is showing tangilbe improvement every single game.
October 15th, 2014 at 8:23 AM ^
Not to mention with a coaching staff who have had a year's less time to get the much-vaunted "their guys" in place. Yes, Tressel's cupboard > Rodriguez's cupboard, especially O-line, but I wish the remaining Hoke stalwarts would admit that other programs are needing far less time to do what they're insisting is a half-decade job.
October 15th, 2014 at 10:42 AM ^
All these new OSU lineman were sophomores and juniors! While Michigan has a youth curve. Even though all our lineman had one season of starting under them and they still have shown little improvement. The true reason is coaching!
October 15th, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^
extremely depressing. Outside of the Vatech game (and Bud Foster is a very well respected dcoordinator) their offense seems just fine.
October 15th, 2014 at 8:22 AM ^
The notion that MIchigan has sunk to a level where it is reasonable to make them an analogue to Rutgers is so depressing, I can't even....but it's true.
October 15th, 2014 at 8:30 AM ^
October 15th, 2014 at 8:41 AM ^
It is not a transitive property game of "because UM scored this many @ Rutgers it will therefore score that many at OSU" or anything like that.
My point is Rutgers PSU and UM are all very similar teams right now in perceived strengths and weaknesses. Their offenses are all relatively 1 dimensional and are completely boom or bust on the QB as the run games are major issues. (Rutgers is probably the best of the 3 despite the injury at running). All 3 teams feature DL as the strengths of the defenses with questions in pass defense (PSU is probably the best in pass defense of the 3)
If any of the 3 teams show up to Columbus I think OSU would have nearly the same exact game plan to play all 3. Hence its a decent proxy for how OSU would play UM in terms of scheme.
October 15th, 2014 at 8:51 AM ^
Rutgers has two weeks to prepare for OSU. That has to be factored in, FWIW.
October 15th, 2014 at 1:45 PM ^
October 15th, 2014 at 8:57 AM ^
Anything could truly happen against OSU when we play them, but at least last year we'd shown glimpses of having an epic offense. When has that remotely happened this year? Not to mention we played OSU in Ann Arbor last year. The Game this year might not be a blowout, as we know Hoke can wake his team up at least for this one. But as of right now, I don't envision any scenario where we pull out a win.
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October 15th, 2014 at 9:07 AM ^
Buttgers is going to be defeated by ohio rather soundly. Final score of 3-2. Urban Meyer will be drunk midway through the 3rd quarter.
October 15th, 2014 at 10:15 AM ^
October 15th, 2014 at 9:12 AM ^
October 15th, 2014 at 10:36 PM ^
October 15th, 2014 at 9:19 AM ^
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October 15th, 2014 at 9:29 AM ^
Look man, Kate Upton could knock on my door tonight and tell me she's getting bored with Justin Verlander but the chances are pretty slim.
October 15th, 2014 at 10:49 AM ^
That is basically our only chance. That makes me sad. :(
October 15th, 2014 at 9:31 AM ^
Michigan seems to have the uncanny ability of making suspect teams play like they are on steroids. I would guess that the Rutgers we saw will not show up against Ohio State. But, I won't be disappointed if Rutgers actually takes out OSU.
October 15th, 2014 at 10:08 AM ^
This thread title might be the most depressing one of all
October 15th, 2014 at 10:35 AM ^
that Rutgers is Rutgers!
October 15th, 2014 at 11:06 AM ^
I will root for Rutgers even though I expect them to get pounded.
As for when we go to Columbus, I'm trying my best to avoid thinking about that at all costs. Because OSU's players actually improve while we...are currently in this hell.
Let's go on to less depressing subjects. Currently, this is probably the happiest us Michigan fans will be all season because last weekend's win combined with this weekend's bye week assures us of consecutive Saturdays with no pain....for the first time since October 2013.
October 15th, 2014 at 11:19 AM ^
in a matchup like this although rarely its inside a box score or a W-L count.
If you watched MSU-Purdue you can see there's a start of a formula to beat MSUs defense. Likely there will be ways Rutgers shows it can exploit OSUs defense.
VaTech showed what can happen if the defense stacks the box and roars up the field at the QB. JT Barrett was laying on the turf more than Hackenberg in the 4thQ. Maybe Ohio has fixed that, maybe not. I'd say Rutgers DL has the capability to get that done. We will see if Ohio's OL has moved forward and can pickup the impending blitzes.
October 15th, 2014 at 12:55 PM ^
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October 15th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^
Rutgers is -19.5? hold on, let me call my bookie real quick
October 15th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^
Despite Rutgers' 5-1 record (compared to Ohio State's 4-1 record), there are some intangible aspects of the Michigan-Ohio State game on November 29 for both Michigan AND Ohio State that don't exist for this weekend's Rutgers-Ohio State game.
October 15th, 2014 at 5:42 PM ^
There is no rivalry between Rutgers and OSU. OSU should beat Rutgers by about as much as the talent differential would indicate. When it's Michigan and OSU, the rivarly aspect usually makes the game closer.
October 16th, 2014 at 10:01 AM ^
Man... you guys are far more resilient than I. After witnessing the cesspool of a mess of an offensive product Nuss and Hoke are trying to pass off, where our one TD vs PSU was thanks to a safety INT error, I'll be surprised if we score even one TD vs MSU or OSU...
Realist first, optimist second, and adjusting expectations helps minimize frustration since:
Frustration = Expectation/Reality
October 18th, 2014 at 8:52 PM ^
Lets hope not.
October 18th, 2014 at 9:59 PM ^
Bwahahaha