Rooting Interests/Poll Nonsense

Submitted by SpikeFan2016 on

I don't usually care much about rankings and tend to be a bit annoyed by the "yay!!! we moved up one spot because some random team lost!!!" crowd.

However, given the possible tiebreaker this year in which OSU, MSU and Michigan all finish 7-1 in the Big Ten and whoever is ranked the highest in the poll goes to the championship, the higher up we are sooner, the better. 

We also want a buffer of undefeated teams between OSU and MSU (we want MSU to be ranked as low as possible when Ohio State beats them so that they will fall the farthest). 

 

That said, in terms of rooting interests, I see things as follows:

Root For: 

  • Baylor, TCU, Clemson, LSU (so that they stay ahead of MSU)
  • Utah, Northwestern, BYU (improves our strength of schedule looking backwards)
  • Penn State (we want Penn State to be 8-2 when we play. At that record they should be in the top 25 and a win over them in the final two weeks of the season could provide a crucial poll bump). 
  • Temple. (Partially to boost Penn State's ranking, but primarily because To Hell With Notre Dame)

Root Against:

  • MSU (no need to say more here)
  • Florida, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Memphis, Houston, Notre Dame, FSU, Ole Miss and Alabama (our competitors for poll slots)
  • Virginia Tech, Oregon, Air Force, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Northern Illinios (weakens OSU/MSU's schedules).

 

Obviously, the most important thing to root for is Michigan winning the rest of their games, by large margins (aka what we always root for). However, we no longer control our own destiny so we must think about these things.

Did I miss anything/get something wrong? Think of too many teams? Too few? Like I said, I think obsessing over polls is annoying generally, but this year it might be a necessary evil. 

ijohnb

October 25th, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^

Won't be a two loss team in the playoff. Ain't happening. Watching MSU yesterday, I have no doubt that OSU is drubbing them. If they can't develop some form of a running game I think they will drop another one too. Cook has to come back to earth at some point.

SAMgO

October 25th, 2015 at 5:03 PM ^

2 loss teams in the playoff are going to be commonplace. I don't think many teams are ever going to get in that don't win their conference, and there are plenty of seasons where at least two P5 championship game winners have two losses.




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ijohnb

October 25th, 2015 at 5:10 PM ^

To both. That LSU team came at the height, or near the height of SEC hysteria. A two loss SEC team could get in, Bama specifically. The BIG has some work to do before they get that kind of love. As to the second response, I don't think it will be uncommon for non conference champ game winners to get in. I think if OSU won all their games except for us AND we won in Indi they would still get in as the 4 seed over us on the strength of last year. Utah losing fairly big did not help us either.

evenyoubrutus

October 25th, 2015 at 5:16 PM ^

Yes but right now there is no truly dominant team, and there is a hype frenzy over Harbaugh right now.  This could work to our advantage, especially if the pollsters look at our loss to MSU as a fluke.

In all honesty it's probably not very likely we will end up in Indy anyway, so the whole point is likely moot.  

ijohnb

October 25th, 2015 at 5:28 PM ^

are a disaster. Makes you wonder if Drevno should have just chucked it around. He certainly had good reason to be spooked by the Utah game but MSU has a high school caliber secondary.

Muttley

October 26th, 2015 at 10:09 AM ^

 

 

  • two-loss #3 Virginia Tech
  • two-loss #4 Oklahoma

Maybe the SEC hysteria helped LSU be the two loss team that got in, but unless you are saying it should have been one-loss #8 Kansas against one-loss #1 Ohio State, you have no other one-loss major conference teams to buttress your argument.

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/2007_archive_bcs.html

BTW, if you go through these archives, you'll see that in 7 of the 16 BCS years, there was a two-loss team in the Top 4 of the final, pre-bowl BCS Ranking.

All of them came in 2007 or earlier, I'd guess as scheduling responded to the BCS formula change by lowering the quality of their OOC.  However, before last year, the committee stated that conference championships were an important determinant.  The Bowl Season proved the wisdom of that view.  You could say the committee was wise in acknowledging what it doesn't know--the true relative strengths of top conference contenders--as the prevailing consensus--that the SEC West was a quasi-NFL division and the B1G sucked--was proven to be dead wrong as the top 5 SEC West finishers ALL lost their bowls while the top 3 B1G finishers ALL won their bowls, including Ohio State as significant underdogs in the playoffs.

If the committee starts granting mulligans to non-conference champs, then the conference championship games will lose significance.

 

funkywolve

October 26th, 2015 at 1:59 PM ^

I see people point to LSU in 2007 as the example of a 2 loss team making the BCS title game/making the playoff.  I think a lot of people don't realize what happened in the 2007 season.  As you mentioned, there weren't any undefeated teams in power 5 conferences and there were only 2 one loss teams from power conferences - OSU and Kansas.  Kansas lost the last game of the regular season to Missouri to drop in the polls.  Due to that loss Kansas didn't even win their division - Missouri won it and got to play in the Big 12 title game.

It's not like a 2 loss LSU was ranked higher then a handful of one loss teams from power 5 conferences.

wolverine1987

October 25th, 2015 at 8:45 PM ^

will a two loss M team get in. Despite one off examples, that usually has no chance of hapening. Just in our own division, OSU would have to lose two, and State also. There will be at least, at minimum, 3 teams with O or 1 loss at the end of the year, possibly more. Even Utah, if they lose another game, is ahead of us from the PAC 12. Bama might lose another, but would  the committee take a 2 loss Bama team or a 2 loss M team? I don't think we'd like the answer, but IMO I know what it is. And that's ok with me--a 10-2 Michigan team that doesn't make the playoff would be a FANTASTIC success.

MadMatt

October 26th, 2015 at 9:33 AM ^

I think you're right about the playoffs, and I'd prefer not to qualify this year.  Sure, sure, it's college football, and the darndest things can happen (like Ohio State's run of dominance last year).  But, I think the Wolverines this year have some exploitable weaknesses that a playoff team will be able to use.  Making the playoffs would be great; getting skunked in the first round and having to listen to the SEC preening that would follow, not so much.  In contrast, I would LOVE for this team to run the table, win the B1G and play in the Rose Bowl for the first time in decades (not literally true, but it feels that way), probably against a team more in our weight class.

ak47

October 26th, 2015 at 9:56 AM ^

It all depends on what happens other places whether a 2 loss team gets in. Lets just say one of LSU or Bama win out, TCU or Baylor wins out, and Clemson wins out.  Those three spots would be gauranteed over 2 loss Big ten champion.  Then you could have a 1 loss pac 12 champion and a 1 loss ND who would also get in over a 2 loss big ten champion.   It isn't happening this year.  I also don't really understand how people think a 2 loss Michigan is jumping a 1 loss msu.  I get that losing at the right time matters but this would be the two resumes (some projection involved)

Michigan:                                                                         MSU

Utah L                                                                   Western Michigan W

oregon state W                                                     Oregon W

UNLV W                                                                Air Force W

BYU W                                                                   Central Michigan W

Maryland W                                                           Purdue W

Northwestern W                                                   Rutgers W

MSU L                                                                 Michigan W

Minnesota W                                                       Indiana W

Rutgers W                                                           Nebraska W

Indiana W                                                             Maryland W

Penn State W                                                      OSU W

Ohio State W                                                      PSU W

 

In this situation both teams would have a win over a top 10 team  (OSU for us, us for msu) Michigan would have losses to two top 15 teams while msu would have a loss to a top 10 team. PSU might be ranked but they would have 4 losses in this situation and both teams would have beaten them.  Our second best win this year would probably be BYU, our resume isn't that strong.  No way we leapfrog a 1 loss team who beat us with a second best win of a team ranked like 18th.

michiganman001

October 25th, 2015 at 7:10 PM ^

well i think a playoff chance is still possible if the one of the other conference's has a 2 loss champion as well. I think PAC 12 champ will have 2 losses, but Utah beat us and the champ could say that they beat Utah and we didn't. I guess beating an undefeated OSU and then an undefeated Iowa back to back weeks would be pretty impressive though. 

Mr. Yost

October 25th, 2015 at 4:50 PM ^

Always root against OSU and MSU.

Always root for Michigan.

OSU and MSU lose out. Michigan win out. Screw everything else.

This won't be hard for me...since I always root for them to lose anyway - especially if Michigan has a loss and doesn't benefit from them winning.

justingoblue

October 25th, 2015 at 4:50 PM ^

Should be rooting for PSU and Nebraska as well as OSU against Sparty. If MSU loses two and M beats OSU they're in the title game regardless of any ranking nonsense.

ThadMattasagoblin

October 25th, 2015 at 4:58 PM ^

I don't think it's a guarantee that MSU only loses one. Eventually they're going to lose one of their bajillion close games. I'm looking at Nebraska. There's no way we'll be ranked ahead of Ohio unless they lose two more.

SpikeFan2016

October 25th, 2015 at 5:06 PM ^

If we manage to beat Ohio State by 10-ish points on the last weekend of the season, BYU/Northwestern manage to win enough to be in the top 25 at that point and Utah goes to the PAC-12 Championship, I think they would find a hard time putting Ohio State above us right after we beat them. 

Not saying all or any of those things are necessarily likely, but they are all possible and not unrealistically so. 

 

I really think that Utah's loss will be an aberration, like how Oregon lost to Arizona last year. They won't lose to Oregon State, Washington or Colorado. Arizona may be tough but I still think they should win that one. And then they get UCLA at home in late November. Everyone else in the South already has 2 losses so even if Utah loses one more they probably still go to San Francisco. 

kawter

October 25th, 2015 at 4:59 PM ^

If team ranking > Michigan then root against team

Else if team ranking Michigan & opponent != Michigan then root for team

Else fuck MSU & OSU with a paintbrush




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SharkyRVA

October 25th, 2015 at 5:02 PM ^

I really do not see us making it to the top 4 even if everything does go our way to win the B1G.  Utah getting blown out definitely does not help build the case.  This team does deserve to go to the B1G title game though if we win out.  I would hate for THAT play to keep this team from going.

SpikeFan2016

October 25th, 2015 at 5:05 PM ^

I don't either.

 

But I still care about Big Ten Championships. If we upset #1 Ohio State, win the Big Ten and go to the Rose Bowl in year one of Harbaugh I'd be thrilled. 

 

That's my goal at this point. Not the playoff. We'll have many years ahead to focus on that. 

DairyQueen

October 25th, 2015 at 11:15 PM ^

The CFP Committee also looks at wins/losses earlier in the season as less significant, and, wins/losses at the end of the season as more significant.

So, Utah's loss has a long-faded impact on our ranking by the end of the season.

(And like-wise a potential win at the end over OSU goes FARTHER than, say, beating OSU in the first game, or so, of the season)

This will be the case (slash already is the case, because of the way the human brain works) with Stanford's loss to Northwestern, which was their opening games, not being something that will hurt Stanford.

Especially because we could argue that we beat Northwestern, who beat Stanford.

 

Unfortunately, this CFP is going to be a SHITSHOW at the end of the season. Literally. There's going to be an unreal amount of politicking and debate. It couldn't have come at a worse time.

 

Even more so that the BIG decided to turn to the CFP rankings as a tie-breaker. That means the winner of the BIG TEN Title Game (or any champ game) could STILL be left out of the CFP.

It's like, what the fuck is the point then? Foucault called this modern incitment to measurement and definition "misplaced precision". And he was damn right about it all!

FauxMo

October 25th, 2015 at 5:02 PM ^

By my count, you list 25 teams (+/- 2) that we should root for or against. That is simply too much to root for. I have problems remembering the 5 things I need to do each day. Sorry...