Rivals' Rankings of Draft Picks Through the First 3 Rounds

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April 29th, 2012 at 4:22 PM
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hart20
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Rivals' Rankings of Draft Picks Through the First 3 Rounds

Rivals went ahead and put together 2 articles showing how they ranked each player drafted through the first 3 rounds.

 

Here are the links:

 

1st Round: http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1359762

2nd and 3rd Round: http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1360073

 

Breakdown of the 1st round by stars:

5-stars: 4

4-stars: 13

3-stars: 10

2-stars: 4

NR: 0

 

Breakdown of the 1st round by conference:

Among the conferences, the SEC again had the most first-round selections, with nine. Four of the top 10 picks were SEC players. Five Big 12 players were picked, followed by four from the Big Ten (all after pick 22) and Pac-12, three from the ACC, two each from the Big East, Mountain West and independent ranks and one from Conference USA.

 

Breakdown of 1st round by High School state:

In terms of high school ball, there were five former Texas prep stars selected. Second-most among the states was Tennessee with three; there were two players each from Alabama, California, Florida, Ohio, Oklahoma and Virginia, and one each from Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota, Washington and Wisconsin.

Yep, that's Simba made out of a pineapple.

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April 29th, 2012 at 4:32 PM | Interesting stuff (Score:1)
Maizenblueball
Joined: 12/08/2011
MGoPoints: 487

Thanks for posting, Hart.  I can't wait to see the draft in about 4 or 5 years, to see how many stud Wolverines will be at the top of the draft boards.  Brady Hoke is recruiting some serious talent, and it'll be fun to see how many of them develop into NFL players.

Chuck Norris wears Brady Hoke pajamas.

April 29th, 2012 at 9:53 PM | I'm excited too, (Score:2 Normal)
George Blogha
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for the most part. I'm still not seeing the SEC type speed though. That's why missing out on Levenberry really bothered me.

April 29th, 2012 at 4:36 PM | Seems like Rivals has (Score:1 Normal)
samsoccer7
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Seems like Rivals has somewhere around 26-32 5* each year.  Given that 4 of them were drafted in the first round, that's pretty f'in impressive.  Such a small percentage of players in any given year are a 5*, yet they take up 12.5% of the first round.  There is definitely some positive correlation there.

Also, I'm not at all surprised by the states these kids come from.  We probably could have named those top 5 schools, and it's probably pretty close to the same over a few years.  Alabama is somewhat surprising, but it's a small sample set in any given single year.

April 29th, 2012 at 6:53 PM | I wouldn't really call it a failure (Score:3 Normal)
mgoDave
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I wouldn't really call not being a first round draft pick a failure by any means.  The vast majority of atheletes do not even get drafted and there are huge numbers of players that contribute hevily in the NFL after being drafted after the first round.  I would say that instead that is a pretty high rate of astonishing success.

April 30th, 2012 at 11:26 AM | But you, or the list, didn't say they weren't drafted (Score:2)
M-Wolverine
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Just not drafted in the first round. You do know there are 7 rounds, and the majority of players aren't first round picks in the league? Lots of guys make it after the first round. You're not considered to be good at drafting if guys you get after the first round don't make it in the League. So there's a huge difference between "not being a first round pick..........not making it to the NFL." 

"I love him, he's a great coach, he's a great mentor, he's a great friend. He's every single thing you want a college coach to be, and he does it flawlessly." -David Molk

April 29th, 2012 at 4:36 PM | Hmm didn't know Broyles was a (Score:1)
jrt336
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Hmm didn't know Broyles was a CB. 

April 29th, 2012 at 5:02 PM | Pretty funny that Rivals (Score:4 Normal)
BeileinBuddy
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Pretty funny that Rivals wasn't ranking recruits yet when Weeden was in HS.

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April 29th, 2012 at 5:17 PM | We definitely brought in some (Score:1)
Lac55
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We definitely brought in some pro prospects on the o line these past two years. It's gonna be fun to watch these guys grow and develop. Sending players to the league is very important in the eyes of recruits. They wanna know can you get them to the next level.

If I say a duck can pull a truck, shut up and hook the sucka up!

April 29th, 2012 at 5:20 PM | I was surprised to see that a (Score:2)
Farnn
Joined: 07/07/2008
MGoPoints: 2348

I was surprised to see that a player from Michigan was taken in the first round and went to check out who it was.  Then I got sad when I saw it was Perry.

April 29th, 2012 at 5:37 PM | There's clearly a correaltion (Score:1 Normal)
ThadMattasagoblin
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There's clearly a correlation for those who say that stars mean nothing.

903 wins most in college football

April 29th, 2012 at 5:52 PM | True but (Score:2 Normal)
jackfl33
Joined: 05/14/2011
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There's an even more clear correlation that Boise St does a heck of a job developing talent.  They sure know how to work with a 2-star.

Grow Blue

April 29th, 2012 at 6:05 PM | Player development is far (Score:4 Normal)
GoBlogSparty
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Player development is far more important than initial star ranking. Notre Dame had the # 2 class in 2008. Florida had the #3.

MSU's #48 class for that year produced 6 draft picks, none of which were over 3 stars, while Notre Dame and Florida produced a combined total of 6.

Your friendly neighborhood Sparty

April 29th, 2012 at 6:37 PM | Agree (Score:2 Normal)
LetsGetIt
Joined: 12/11/2011
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Development means way more than initial star ranks, Its great to have 5 star talent but if you develop a 2 star athlete he could have the same potential.

April 29th, 2012 at 7:45 PM | Is there evidence (Score:5 Normal)
dth
Joined: 12/02/2010
MGoPoints: 88

That five stars are demonstrably more entitled than 2 and 3 star kids? Wondering seriously. An analogy--I remember there was an FA Cup game in England where some commentator contrasted the "hard working players of the underdogs" versus the flashy players of the favorites. One of the favorites informed the commentator, after the game, that he'd played in the same academy with a lot of the players who turned out to be underdogs, and the reason they were underdogs on that game was because they hadn't worked in the first place. 

I wouldn't be shocked if a big part of the reason that the five stars are ranked as such is because most five stars have five star work ethic to go along with their other superlatives. 

April 29th, 2012 at 8:15 PM | To generalize all five stars (Score:4 Normal)
DGDestroys
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To generalize all five stars as lazy is completely false..and short-sighted, sure. But I don't think he was necassarily doing that.

Most five stars, though, are just that gifted. They may or may not work hard in high school, and that work ethic may separate them from four star status, etc. But most of these guys just grow up that talented. It's at the college and pro level that they really need to put in the extra effort to be elite, not in high school. 

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April 29th, 2012 at 8:41 PM | That's probably fair (Score:1)
dth
Joined: 12/02/2010
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If I was reading something in there that wasn't, my apologies. 

My hunch is that your given five star is the hardest worker of anyone in high school, but of course that isn't enough for college, just as your college work ethic won't be enough for the pros. So naturally there's a filtering process as those who are only up to a high school work ethic will get filtered out. 

April 29th, 2012 at 9:35 PM | yeah but both of ND's (Score:5 Normal)
Bodogblog
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were in the first round. Floyd will be elite, while Worthy could be good and the rest of the Sparties career back-ups. Look, these arguments are silly.

All mid-level schools get 3 stars, and all have fanbases who insist their coaches are better at developing them. It's all bunk.

All teams are better off with more talented players. Development is fine, and important, but it's very difficult to measure. It's just as likely that Sparty got lucky on Worthy and Cousins, rather than developed them. Same with Boise.

April 29th, 2012 at 10:04 PM | Retention is pretty important (Score:3 Normal)
Farnn
Joined: 07/07/2008
MGoPoints: 2348

Retention is pretty important as well, look at what Florida has done with all the great recruits under Meyer.  And at this point, I don't think you can say that MSU has just gotten lucky for a couple of years.  3 consecutive 9+ win seasons implies that Dantonio can in fact coach, as much as it pains me to say it.  And I'd say Boise is also considerably more than luck too.

April 29th, 2012 at 10:52 PM | not saying he's a lucky coach (Score:4 Normal)
Bodogblog
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You can win (for a period of time) without elite players in CFB. I'm referring to player development. No one is perfect in evaluating player performance, and there are probably many players the MSU coaches would have preferred to Worthy or Cousins.

I'm saying that the fact those 2 outplayed their rankings is just as likely attributable to luck as player development. Didn't they have a 4 star QB quit football and lose another 4 star lineman to injury? That's failed player development, according to some of these simplistic arguments.

In reality it's bad luck (or truly horrible player development). Sparty will revert to the mean of their recruiting rankings. Like all 3 stars, some will be better, some will be worse, on average they will be average. Player development may or may not play a small role. Again it's hard to judge, and everyone thinks their guy is Knute Rockne. They're not, at least not all of them are. They're all good talent evaluators who look for character and skill. Those who get the top players increase their chances of success very significantly over time.

April 29th, 2012 at 11:14 PM | Wasn't Nichol a 4 star QB? I (Score:2)
UMgradMSUdad
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Wasn't Nichol a 4 star QB? I realize he went to Oklahoma first, but then Cousins beat him out for the position. As for Worthy, he looked overweight and out of shape in high school.  Once he worked off the baby fat and hit the weights, he was a different player.  Also, I'm not quite sure why head coaches are so often credited with developing players.  If players are being developed, wouldn't that reflect on the position coaches more than the head coach (with some exceptions, of course)?

April 29th, 2012 at 6:38 PM | You still have a lower (Score:2 Normal)
ThadMattasagoblin
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You still have a lower ceiling of what your players can do with 3 star recruits.  Developing 5 stars can get you to a national championship while with developing 3 stars the ceiling is the Big Ten championship. 

903 wins most in college football

April 30th, 2012 at 12:40 PM | I think 3 star average is the tipping point (Score:1)
bubblelevel
Joined: 06/01/2011
MGoPoints: 220

If you Bell curve it about 50% of 3 stars will develop into 4 star talent with good coaching.  A few to 5 star potential.  If your recruiting average for a team is low 3's and below I think you really do have that ceiling scenario for their potential with the occaissional outlyer.  The ratings are going to mean less going forward in years because of the competition of the services - I believe you are getting many more higher ratings than before.

April 29th, 2012 at 8:42 PM | HILARIOUS (Score:5 Normal)
allezbleu
Joined: 11/02/2008
MGoPoints: 260

22. QB BRANDON WEEDEN, CLEVELAND

School: Oklahoma State 
High school: Edmond (Okla.) Santa Fe 
Recruiting ranking: Was in high school before Rivals.com recruiting rankings existed

"I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." -Evelyn Beatrice Hall

April 29th, 2012 at 11:06 PM | To be fair the big ten has (Score:1)
ThadMattasagoblin
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To be fair the big ten has been pretty weak the last few years.  I'd like to see how Dantonio holds up once the bar is raised with Michigan, Ohio, and Penn State in the next few years.

903 wins most in college football

April 30th, 2012 at 8:56 AM | MSU should be fine (Score:3 Normal)
death by trident
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Dantonio was recently spotted on the recruiting trail.

April 30th, 2012 at 9:55 AM | hart20 (Score:1 Normal)
SHEER WIZARDRY
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Why would you want to glorify a running back who has never beat ohio? I love M. Hart but come on. You are judged at Michigan by how you perform against Ohio. If I remember correctly, he is 0-4. Along with J. Long, Manningham, Henne etc. Find a new name loser.

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