Rivals rankings for 2015 and 2016 updated

Submitted by Magnus on

Well, with Ace resting up this week and not a lot of Michigan-related recruiting news over the past couple weeks (other than Mike Weber committing to OSU), I thought some recruiting rankings news/discussion might be interesting.

Over the past two weeks, Rivals updated their rankings for 2015 (top 100, top 250) and 2016 (top 100, top 250). All three of Michigan's 2016 commits are hanging out in the bottom third of the rankings, and three out of six 2015 commits are in the top 250.

By the way, Michigan is currently ranked #88 in recruiting. Coach or not, I think that's the lowest I've ever seen them ranked. They'll surely move up once a new coach is in place and a few more players hop on board, but...yikes.

ericcarbs

December 11th, 2014 at 9:13 AM ^

Hey Magnus,

I was wondering if you think what is the chance weber comes back to michigan (or Harris even). I think a right coach with at least a week could convince one to come back to Michigan but could you let me know. Thanks.

M-Dog

December 11th, 2014 at 9:23 AM ^

I'd like to take that question even further:

If by some miracle we get Harbaugh, which specific recruits that decommitted do you think would come back?

My personal opinion is not that many.  Recruits that loved Hoke's style won't necessarily love Harbaugh's style.  In addition, by the time we got Harbaugh, most of these guys will have firmed up their plans elsewhere.  Recruits have other attractive options, it's not like Michigan is irreplaceable in a top recruit's mind.

What I do think would happen is that Harbaugh's hire would draw in a number of high-level recruits that were not on our radar.  I don't think he would have to fill out the class with just a majority of 2/3 stars. 

tolmichfan

December 11th, 2014 at 10:53 AM ^

The bright side of this class is that we don't have any holes on the roster that absolutely needs addressing. Just about everyone will be able to redshirt and won't have to step into a starting role until thier third season. Of course I'd rather have top recruits being able to take three years before they have to start your point is valid that the coaches can take some lower level recruits in this class.

tolmichfan

December 11th, 2014 at 11:32 AM ^

Call me crazy but I still think Morris can be a top QB. I don't know why we always discredit guys who haven't played yet. Maybe it's a product of our roster haveing so many holes for so many years and young players had to step in right away.

I too wouldn't mind if they took another QB, perhaps even a dual threat guy. Are there any uncommitted dual threat guys worth looking at?

Magnus

December 11th, 2014 at 11:47 AM ^

Sheriron Jones just decommitted from Florida. He's a kid I like. I also like a lefty out of Florida named Sage Attwood, who's more of a Blake Bell type (though not as big) and not a Denard Robinson type.

And if we hire Dan Mullen, I hear a kid named Chason Virgil is in need of a scholarship...

Magnus

December 11th, 2014 at 9:24 AM ^

Honestly, I think it would be very difficult to get either one back in the fold. Weber has already committed and flipped, and it's not often that you see players commit, flip, and then flip back. I've seen it happen once or twice, but it's rare.

I think Damien Harris has moved on. It looks like he'll end up at Alabama or maybe Kentucky. He had a strong connection with Al Borges and a decent connection with Brady Hoke, but I think it's too late for Michigan to get him back now.

A home run hire (Harbaugh, perhaps) could get those guys back, but I still think Michigan would have to pursue someone else.

MGoChippewa

December 11th, 2014 at 9:58 AM ^

Sam Webb addressed this issue this morning on his radio show.  I can't remember how he worded it, but he either said that Michigan will get Weber back if they hire Harbaugh or Miles, or that they have a very good chance.  I know for sure that he said that Michigan will get a visit if they hire one of the two.

Mabel Pines

December 11th, 2014 at 9:27 AM ^

I'm not even bothered by #88.  It is more important to get a great coach.  I've been so disenchanted with recruiting stars for a while now.  Especially when some of our best players were Jake Ryan, Jordan Kovacs, Drake Johnson and the like.  Not sure if those 3 even add up to 5 stars!!

mgowill

December 11th, 2014 at 9:29 AM ^

I think with the Harbaugh timeline in play, end of December to beginning of January, we knew this was going to be a tight window.  With February 4th as National Signing Day that leaves about a month or maybe less to put together a class - yikes!  

Rivals currently lists 6 commits - was the total for this class something around 15?

Magnus

December 11th, 2014 at 10:17 AM ^

It's too early to tell. Without a new coach in place, who knows? There could be a mass exodus if a spread guy who runs a 3-3-5 comes in. Or we could lose virtually nobody if Jim Harbaugh is hired. Usually the class ends up being a few players larger than originally expected, so I would expect the 17 seniors to turn into a class in the low 20's.

ChalmersE

December 11th, 2014 at 9:44 AM ^

Let's take the hypothetical away from a JH hiring. If Michigan were to hire a Mora, Miles, Mullen or Hermen, would any of them bring some recruits with them.  For example, Weber just essentially committed to play for Herman, would a Herman hiring bring him back.  [I know you said you doubted that, but I changed the facts slightly.  ;-) ]

pkatz

December 11th, 2014 at 10:51 AM ^

This class was never going to be that big, but it was shaping up to be great... you may not recall, but there was a time early in the season when we had the second highest rated class in terms of average star ratings.

Regardless, I'd trade Harbaugh for star ratings any day - Hoke recruited well, but disappointed in player development.

chatster

December 11th, 2014 at 11:20 AM ^

Isn’t Michigan’s very low team ranking based more on the lack of commitments than on the relative quality of the commits, based on their star ratings?  Of the 125 teams ranked by Rivals, only nine have fewer commits than Michigan’s six and they’re all ranked between 116 and 123. Of all the "Power Five" conference teams, only Florida, with seven commits is ranked lower than Michigan, and they're currently 96th.
 
There are only twelve teams whose commits have average star ratings equal to or better than Michigan’s 3.5 average: Alabama (3.95), Florida State (3.95), USC (3.94), UCLA (3.71), Auburn (3.63), LSU (3.63),  Clemson (3.6), Georgia (3.59), Penn State (3.58), Miami-Florida (3.53), South Carolina (3.52) and Oklahoma (3.5).

flashOverride

December 11th, 2014 at 10:39 AM ^

This definitely sucks to see, but my views on recruiting have been significantly recalibrated by Michigan's recent performances againt MSU (and the relative success of teams like Wisconsin, whom Michigan has been fortunate to avoid lately). Yes, I know what the recruiting records are of the teams who win it all. And yes, I certainly agree that had the Playoff field been eight this year, MSU would have been in, only to be absolutely slaughtered by Alabama, just like four years ago. But right now let's hope the emphasis is not only on getting a good coach, but getting one who hires the right assistants to give these kids the best chance to win. I think that at Michigan, if you have a coach who builds a foundation and fosters a true team identity, elite recruiting will eventually start to take care of itself. Here's to getting the one right guy* now, and then we can worry about getting the twenty right guys.

Of course, if Michigan doesn't get the guy, I see a loser hired in the second week of January, in which case this class ends up containing about four guys we actually wanted. PLEASE GET THE GUY.

*And no, I do not believe Harbaugh is the only "right guy".

 

alum96

December 11th, 2014 at 10:51 AM ^

Wiscy recruits in the 40s most of the time.  Stanford in the 30s to 40s in the Shaw era.  MSU in the 30s.  TCU in the 50s.  KSU in the 60s.  ASU around 40.

A bunch of top 5-15 classes sandwiched by 1 class that will probably still be #40 when all is said and done is not going to change the direction of UM football.   The right coach and developer of talent is the most important thing. 

chatster

December 11th, 2014 at 11:36 AM ^

(Sorry for the length of the first one.)
 
1.  Regardless of who Michigan’s new head coach will be, if none of the top-rated, uncommitted prospects would be interested in Michigan (such as Under Armour All Americans RB Damien Harris, TE Chris Clark, WR Soso Jamabo, DEs Byron Cowart and Terry Beckner, Jr., DT Tim Settle and LBs Malik Jefferson and John Houston, Jr.) would it be better to:
 
(a) limit any additional scholarship commits to those students who are rated four stars and higher than to offer scholarships to lower-rated prospects,
 
(b) then use the additional unused scholarships for the class of 2015 to reward some of the current walk-on players (say, Ryan Glasgow, Bo Dever, Jack Wangler and Kenny Allen) who have demonstrated enough ability and academic achievement to justify having them get a free year at Michigan, and
 
(c) then add more students as “preferred walk-on players” like Jack Dunaway to the class of 2015?
 
2.  If you had to guess, which underclass players are most likely to leave Michigan after this semester if a highly rated coach isn’t hired?

Magnus

December 11th, 2014 at 11:54 AM ^

1. I think you should almost always try to get more prospects. The Kenny Allens, Ryan Glasgows, etc. have already committed to Michigan as walk-ons and will almost certainly stick around, regardless. Furthermore, I don't think Bo Dever or Jack Wangler have really earned scholarships with their play on the field. Kenny Allen hasn't, either, but he'll probably be our starting punter next fall.

Regardless, I would be in favor of offering lower tier prospects (3-stars and such) in order to fill up most/all of the class. There are almost always one or two scholarships that open up because someone transfers, gets kicked off the team, etc., so those are the ones that should be "counted on", in my opinion, to give to walk-ons.

2. I think that question is way too large/vague to handle. It's impossible to say, because it depends on systems, personalities, etc. I have a few names of disgruntled players who haven't been given much playing time. The only name I'll throw out there (not that he's disgruntled) is Russell Bellomy, who would be a fifth year senior in 2015 and does not look like a viable option to win the job, regardless of coach or system. My guess is that he will graduate and move on.

chatster

December 11th, 2014 at 12:43 PM ^

I always appreciate your rapid responses and your comments.

Some follow-up questions:

1.  Which two-star/three-star prospects whom you've seen might be worth taking in the class of 2015, if Michigan can't land any more higher-rated commits?

2.  Would Russell Bellomy have to find a school that offered a graduate program that's unavailable at Michigan in order to play at an FBS school next season, or would it just make sense for him to find an FCS school where he might be able to compete for the starting job, like Sam Houston State or Stephen F. Austin back in his home state of Texas?

3.  Wouldn't it be premature for those "disgruntled players" to transfer before knowing who the next coach will be? Or are those players just not happy at the university, and would've been leaving, even if the coaching staff hadn't been fired?

Magnus

December 11th, 2014 at 1:48 PM ^

1. Well, I'm most familiar with the ones from Michigan and Ohio, so I'll throw a few names out there from those states: David Moorman, Grant Perry, Dior Johnson, Joshuwa Holloman, John Kelly, Marquise Blair, Rob Dowdy, George Brown, and Jordan Jones. Some of those guys are already committed to other schools.

2. Bellomy would have to find a program with a graduate course of study that is not offered at Michigan if he wants to play in the FBS. I'm highly doubtful that he could. If he wants to continue playing football (and have a chance to start), I think he would need to drop down to FCS or the D-II level.

3. It would be premature for those players to transfer. The ones I know of are mostly disappointed about playing time, not the university itself. A couple of them are guys are blocked by players in their own class or younger. They might get a better shot (or a position switch) from a new staff, but things are looking bleak for them unless there are injuries.

chatster

December 11th, 2014 at 3:50 PM ^

As for the possible recruits you mentioned, it looks like Michigan would have to do a lot of commitment flipping for these men:
  • David Moorman (Wisconsin commit) - OT, 6-5, 290, Northville HS, Northville, MI (Scout - 4, Rivals - 3, 247 - 4)
  • Grant Perry (Northwestern commit) - WR, 6-0, 185, Brother Rice HS, Bloomfield Hills, MI (Scout - 4, Rivals - 3, 247 - 3)
  • Dior Johnson (Wake Forest commit) - S, 6-2, 195, Southfield HS, Southfield, MI (Scout - 3, Rivals - 4, 247 - 3)
  • Joshuwa Holloman (Cincinnati commit) - RB, 5-11, 185, Auburn Hills, MI (Scout - 3, Rivals - 3, 247 - 3)
  • John Kelly (Uncommitted; good friend of Ohio State commit Mike Weber) - ATH, 5-10, 194, Oak Park HS, Oak Park, MI (Scout - 3, Rivals - 3, 247 - 3)
  • Marquise Blair (Syracuse commit) - S, 6-3, 180, Wooster HS, Wooster, OH (Scout - 3, Rivals - 3, 247 - 3)
  • Rob Dowdy (Pittsburgh commit - OT, 6-5, 296, Westerville South HS, Westerville, OH (Scout - 3, Rivals - 3, 247 - 3)
  • George Brown Jr. (LSU commit) - OT, 6-6, 275, Winton Woods HS, Cincinnati, OH (Scout - 3, Rivals - 4, 247 - 3)
  • Jordan Jones (Kentucky commit) - OLB, 6-2, 203, Cardinal Mooney HS, Youngstown, OH (Scout - 4, Rivals - 3, 247 - 3

As for possible transfers, just based on the depth chart, if the “disgruntled players” are unhappy only about playing time, and not the university, then, without knowing whether any of these would be classified as “disgruntled” (and hoping that none of them would leave), a "mass exodus” could include players like (in jersey number order) Channing Stribling, Mike McCray, Da’Mario Jones, Allen Gant, Terry Richardson, AJ Pearson, Ross Douglas, Reon Dawson, Tom Strobel, Ondre Pipkins, Blake Bars, Dan Samuelson and Jaron Dukes.

Even though they haven't been significant contributors other than on special teams, a loss of that many players could be devastating, if only because of the need to have experienced players in case of injuries and illnesses.  It would seem like the new coaching staff might have to do as much recruiting of current players as they'll be doing for the class of 2015.

Magnus

December 11th, 2014 at 4:17 PM ^

Yes, a lot of flipping would be necessary to get those guys, but that happens quite a bit at this time of year. Most prospects are committed, but the lower ranked ones (committed to mediocre schools) frequently jump at the chance to play at a higher level.

As for transfers, there are certainly a lot of players who aren't playing much, but that happens everywhere. It would be unlikely for all of those guys to transfer, regardless of the new coach. We saw a lot of transfers and such when Rodriguez was hired, but even he didn't see THAT much turnover.