Rittenberg: Best Case-Worst Case for UM
Pretty interesting.
To summarize
Best Case: At 10-2, Michigan heads to the Capital One Bowl and beats Mississippi in a shootout. Fans finally embrace Rodriguez and his style, forgetting 2008 and all the player departures during the transition. Minor finishes as a finalist for the Doak Walker Award, and Graham wins Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year honors. Michigan is back.
Worst Case: At 4-8, Rodriguez's future seems very much in doubt. After some extensive deliberation, AD Bill Martin decides to keep the coach, but says a significant improvement must be made in 2010. Several key players leave the team, including one of the freshman quarterbacks, which puts Rodriguez and his staff in a negative light yet again. Mesko winds up as Michigan's only first-team All-Big Ten representative. Ohio State wins its fifth straight league title and the Rose Bowl.
http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/2766/best-case-worst-case-mich…
August 26th, 2009 at 12:21 PM ^
Read it. Seemed fairly on. Didn't know how to spell Grady's name. Called him Gray.
August 26th, 2009 at 12:28 PM ^
Or he just missed the d when he was typing it up, which he did, because he spelled it right in the tags at the end of the article.
August 26th, 2009 at 12:24 PM ^
I can totally see these cases happening. I like it. I hope we get the Best case scenario :)
August 26th, 2009 at 12:27 PM ^
some where in the middle case for $200 alex
August 26th, 2009 at 12:28 PM ^
wrong, we are going undefeated.
August 26th, 2009 at 2:10 PM ^
...and the first time ever that a freshman wins the Heisman Trophy. Only question is whether Denard will tie his wingtips at the acceptance ceremony.
August 26th, 2009 at 12:30 PM ^
..to me is 6-6. The team is stronger, faster, more experienced in the spread, and has QB's who fit the system now. I would almost put that worst-case scenario at 7-5.
August 26th, 2009 at 12:38 PM ^
I wish I had the same rosy outlook and detachment from reality as you.
August 26th, 2009 at 12:47 PM ^
I don't think they sell the kind of KoolAid you're drinking where I live.
To call a 3 win improvement when the burden of the offense is likely to fall on the shoulders of one or two kids straight out of high school and our defensive depth chart looks grim the worst case scenario is ludicrous. Sure, we'd have to suffer through another likely loss to Ohio St. and an invitation to the Afterthought Bowl, but it would mean marked improvement and rabid enthusiasm for what would look to be a strong season in 2010.
The worst case scenario would be too many people thinking the worst case scenario is 6-6 and that leading to RichRod's dismissal. Even if you don't like his methods or his public persona, if we scrapped the process now we'd be an afterthought to the high school recruits who make the upper echelon programs what they are. 6-6 this years means his system is working and we should give it time.
August 26th, 2009 at 1:16 PM ^
Do you even know what worst case means?
Dude, I know you are optimistic on this team from your other posts (which is great), but 6-6 or 7-5 is a near consensus "probable" scenario.
August 26th, 2009 at 3:49 PM ^
Somebody was getting smashed on the koolaid this summer. I love the optimism, but 7-5 is not the worst case scenario for this season. I'd probably agree with Rittenberg on this one. Both the worst and best case scenarios seem realistic for what they are, best and worst cases. Obviously, I think it will end up somewhere in the middle. Hopefully it is at least 7 wins on the season.
August 26th, 2009 at 12:34 PM ^
i liked how part of the "worst case" includes oh*o state winning the big ten and rose bowl.
August 26th, 2009 at 2:01 PM ^
Seconded.
August 26th, 2009 at 12:47 PM ^
Best Case:
Michigan finishes 12-0, beating Florida in the BCS National Championship Game. Tate/Denard win Big Ten Co- Freshmen of the year and our entire starting lineup are First Team All Americans.
Worst Case:
We go 0-12, Tate and Denard both transfer and Devin Gardner decommits to go to the Buckeyes. Rich Rodriguez gets fired and Bret Bielema is hired as our new coach.
In any case, I think Rittenberg's predictions for best/worse case's are dead on.
August 26th, 2009 at 1:54 PM ^
and say we finish somewhere in the middle of those 2.
I'll put the odds at 60-40
August 26th, 2009 at 5:14 PM ^
60-40? Are you Dandy Don?
August 26th, 2009 at 5:29 PM ^
"He has a 50/50 chance of living, though there's only a 10 percent chance of that"
August 27th, 2009 at 9:49 AM ^
That was a Dandy Don reference. I should have said "Dandy Don puts the odds at 60-40" instead of I put the odds at 60-40.
August 26th, 2009 at 3:42 PM ^
Best Case:
Adam Rittenberg is replaced by Mcfarlin as Big 10 blogger.
Worst Case:
Adam Rittenberg keeps spewing out worthless info without researching or knowing what the hell he's talking about.
August 26th, 2009 at 4:28 PM ^
Wait i guess thats me since i have been negbanged for asking who Mcfarlin is and i guess for that you get the name Mcfarlin
August 26th, 2009 at 5:05 PM ^
You're right. You can't be McFarlin because your name is Adrian. ..
August 26th, 2009 at 12:48 PM ^
The worst case scenario sounds a lot like last season. There is no way this happens.
August 26th, 2009 at 1:05 PM ^
I will say this - for the amount of negative pub our university has gotten from ESPN over the last year - Rittenberg does a damn fine job.
August 26th, 2009 at 1:09 PM ^
I always wondered why he has been so level-minded about it. Thoughts?
August 26th, 2009 at 1:57 PM ^
I think his job is to placate every Big Ten fanbase, so he tends not to say anything inflammatory.
August 26th, 2009 at 4:14 PM ^
that's a tough thing to do with a topic as heated as college football. doubly tough when you're employed by disney.
August 26th, 2009 at 1:16 PM ^
Whom do we lose to? 10-2 team seems like they would end the drought against ohio state, maybe Iowa or Notre Dame? Illinois catches us?
August 26th, 2009 at 1:42 PM ^
It's in the article.
August 26th, 2009 at 1:24 PM ^
Reading the comments on that article just make me appreciate once more how lucky we are to be able to have (relatively) intelligent conversations on the board here.
Even with the hundreds of OMG DENARD HAS ROCKET SHOELACES, SHOULD HE START? FTW!!!1!! threads, at least we don't have to deal with that kind of abject stupidity and smack-talk.
August 26th, 2009 at 1:51 PM ^
I made the huge mistake of reading the comments on that article. Luckily I was able to click 'back' before the urge to perform a self lobotomy with an ice pick was overpowering. MGoBlog is truly an oasis in the vast desert of stupidity known as the internet.
August 26th, 2009 at 1:28 PM ^
Our best case has us losing to Iowa and PSU/Ill. Iowa's worst-case scenario has them beating us too. Rittenberg does a nice job with these articles (and his Big 10 blog in general), but I think we at least have a chance to beat Iowa.
August 26th, 2009 at 1:41 PM ^
I would probably put best case and worst case scenarios one win lower; the idea that Michigan's best case is the same as Iowa's best case is fairly preposterous. There's just too much that could go wrong to justify 10 wins even in a "best case" scenario.
As for worst case, there's no particular reason that we can't lose to one of the four "sure wins" on our schedule (EMU, 1-AA, Indiana, Purdue), considering that's happened in the past two seasons. I have no desire to see that happen, but ignoring the possibility is asking for it.
August 26th, 2009 at 1:50 PM ^
I think he put WMU as a sure win, and had us losing one of those. WMU had a decent team last year, but people are giving them too much credit. They weren't THAT good last year, and they lost a LOT. According to Vegas odds (and they don't like to be wrong) this is close to a sure win.
August 26th, 2009 at 2:02 PM ^
You say "There's just too much that could go wrong to justify 10 wins even in a "best case" scenario."
The point of a best case scenario is that nothing goes wrong. That's why it's called the "best" case.
August 26th, 2009 at 2:42 PM ^
If nothing goes wrong for us, why do we lose to Iowa then? Perfect play means that we win that game easily. Also, we beat that other team we lost to, so the real best case is 12-0.
The point, which we both already knew, is that it's a highly optimistic scenario that's still barely within the bounds of reality. Getting perfect reloads that maintain previous performance, improving performance from every other unit, and Colt McCoy/Pat White type play is too much to ask for a best case scenario. Our safeties are still going to be at best tolerable in a best case scenario; that's something going wrong.
August 26th, 2009 at 4:10 PM ^
Last time I checked "perfect" does not equal "best".
August 26th, 2009 at 4:41 PM ^
Best Case: "being the best result that could be expected UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES" (emphasis added).
Otherwise best case for every team would be undefeated and worst case would be winless. Rendering any analysis useless.
August 26th, 2009 at 2:03 PM ^
I'm glad he put 10-2 and not "Best case: 8-4" which I've seen/heard from multiple people.
Well-written and actually realistic, not "F-Michigan!" at all. Seemed right on for the most part. I disagree with the "Worst case" but whatever.
August 26th, 2009 at 4:21 PM ^
Between 4 and 10 wins? I don't think that our range is that big. Maybe 5-9, with the most likely outcome at about 6 or maybe 7. 10-2 means something to the effect of beating Penn State, and Notre Dame and Michigan State on the road and Illinois on the road, all while not losing any games in which we are favored. I see it happening next year, but not this year.
August 27th, 2009 at 12:51 AM ^
Best Case: We all get laid and win a million dollars' worth of burritos
Worst Case: Earth explodes
August 27th, 2009 at 7:01 AM ^
Nice, but I think Rittenberg's best/worst cases were slightly more extreme than yours.
August 27th, 2009 at 3:33 AM ^
I would LOVE Rittenberg's best case scenario but my thinking is:
Best Case: 8-4 and wins over ND, MSU & OSU...followed by a bowl victory! Tate Forcier does so well that RR has no choice but to go with him as the #1 QB & Tate wins Big Ten Offensive Freshman of the Year!! Brandon Minor leads the running game & Vincent Smith proves to be the "real deal"! The defense improves & performs very well, led by Brandon Graham. William Campbell & JT Turner play very well & contribute greatly to the U-M defensive improvement. We stay relatively healthy!!
Worst Case: 5-7 or 4-8 and losses to ND & OSU. Another losing season & no bowl for 2nd straight year & more inconsistency from the offense & defense. Several injuries that deplete our already thin depth chart. The experiment with RR is deemed...rightfully so...a failure & we look for another coach & another system change!
I'm thinking we go 7-5, beat ND & OSU and win our bowl game!!
August 27th, 2009 at 9:55 AM ^
my prediction is 9-3 with losses coming from Penn State, Notre Dame and Ohio State