The Ringer: Caris is a Draft Sleeper to Get Excited About

Submitted by the monarch on

Caris named as the Medical-Red-Flag Scare guy in their categorized Top Five Sleepers:

If LeVert hadn’t broken his foot twice and endured other leg injuries in college, he would be a top-20 lock. He’s got everything a wing in the modern NBA needs: shooting (a career 40.1 percent shooter from 3), playmaking (4.9 assists per game), scoring (16.5 points per game), rebounding (5.3 boards per game), and the length (6-foot-10 wingspan) to guard multiple positions. He reminds me a lot of Khris Middleton, another long wing with a good IQ who slipped into the second round because of injury concerns. Whether or not LeVert can stay healthy at the next level, I have no idea. There will come a point pretty early in the second round when he becomes worth the gamble, though.

 

Link: https://theringer.com/five-nba-draft-sleepers-to-get-excited-about-b667…

East German Judge

June 23rd, 2016 at 12:47 PM ^

I wish Caris all the best but are his injuries really behind him for good? If he couldn't stay healthy during a college 35 game schedule, then the pros should be worried about his durability over a 82+ game schedule.

Lanknows

June 23rd, 2016 at 1:03 PM ^

As for the post. He is right.

Levert will be one of the 10 best players in this draft if healthy and he probably will be.  Every player is a risk. Injury history is just the most obvious form of it. Caris' character and production and ability to fit in very different roles (from freshman trying to be red-shirted, to sophomore batman, to upper class alpha) mitigate his risk for foot injuries.  He's a prototypical modern SG with all his versatility and length.  Middhelton's an OK comp (great pick by Dumars BTW) but Caris has far better guard skills and isn't as strong physically.

Bragdon's an excellent shooter and defender and should be the rare rookie that can help right away. Worth a late 1st.

Felder > Ulis and should be a 1st rounder - He'll be one of the top 20 players in the draft and make whoever drafts him look like a genius.  I wouldn't be sad if the Pistons took him at 18.

A lot of analytics-oriented people love McCaw. I plead ignorance.

The only one I really doubt is Carter.  There's some Taj Gibson potential there given his versatility but I am not sure he has the athleticism to play 4 consistently or the strength to play 5.  Seems more like a traditional PF than modern C to me.

Lanknows

June 23rd, 2016 at 1:10 PM ^

There's a lot of great stuff out there today that goes beyond the Chad Ford / NBA Draft Express stuff. Many amateur bloggers have the analytic skills to put together there own projection models (varying validity but at least objectively interesting to read instead of groupthink) and put forth enough effort to look beyond highlight reels.

Murray and Hield are the most prominent projected lottery picks that many of these "draft outsiders" are raising doubts about.

Ali G Bomaye

June 23rd, 2016 at 1:41 PM ^

Injuries - particularly broken bones - are freak things. Sure, they may recur, but if they don't, then whoever drafts Caris is getting a top-10-level talent in the late 1st or early 2nd round. Players like Zydrunas Ilgauskas had problems with broken feet in their early 20s before recovering and remaining largely healthy for the rest of their career.

Looking at the 2011 draft (five years ago), in the last ten picks of the first round and the first ten picks of the second round, only five of those 20 players have accumulated 10 or more win shares in their first five years. To give you an idea of how mediocre that threshold is, Kyle Singler is the sixth-best player of those 20, with 9.8 win shares, and he's terrible.

So if it's a crapshoot anyway, why not take a risk on a guy like Caris being healthy?  You're not giving up much expected value, and you might get a legit player.

Perkis-Size Me

June 23rd, 2016 at 1:43 PM ^

I hope someone is willing to take a gamble on him, and I certainly hope his injury days are behind him. But I won't be surprised if he goes undrafted. It's been two years since he's been able to play a full season's worth of basketball. Not a lot of recent data to go by. 

He might have all the tangibles, but if he's been unable to make it through two college seasons, a lot of teams are going to be left to question how he'll make it through a full NBA season. 

 

Cdat33

June 23rd, 2016 at 2:01 PM ^

I know that he wrote it, but his letter to NBA GMs he mentions that he had the same injury as Kevin Durant and went to the same specialist. It took KD more than a year to get right and he was this year. The doctor has given Caris a bill of health and that he should be alright. 

I'm not saying that Caris is KD but CJ McCollum had foot injuries too and he is doing well. There were no "red flags" about him according to NBA GMs too. He could and probably will be a solid player on a good team. 20 - 25 minutes a night and that would be great. I hope he does slip all the way to the Pistons in the second round.

dessiattire

June 24th, 2016 at 7:42 AM ^

Every where available there sarees online on my website when the going to my brother wedding ceremony so good fashionable l sarees looking there and very lovey so we are looking so smart there and every people to look me and very beautiful see there.