Rich Rodriguez vs. Brian Kelly 2007, and how it relates to Saturday.
http://www.msnsportsnet.com/content/FBBOX111707.pdf
This is the only time Rich Rod and Kelly have faced each other.
Items of note:
- Rushing yards: West Virginia 295, Cincinnati 84
- Passing yards: Cincinnati 323, West Virginia 140
- Total yards: West Virginia 435, Cincinnati 407
- Time of Possession: West Virginia 36:21, Cincinnati 22:59
- Turnovers lost: West Virginia 3, Cincinnati 2
Pat White had some familiar looking numbers: 13-19 passing, 140 yards, 0 sacks, 155 rushing yards on 27 carries. Slaton added 103 yards on 23 carries. For Cincinnati, Ben Mauk completed just over 50% of his passes (19 of 34), but the 19 completions were for 323 yards, with Marcus Barnett having a huge game, 10 catches for 210 yards (!!!). Cincinnati's running game was quiet, although that's skewed a bit by five WVU sacks on Mauk.
West Virginia dominated the TOP, particular in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Their two lost fumbles were both by White in the 4th quarter.
Overall, some reasonable assumptions (IMO) can be made:
- The talent on Notre Dame's 2010 roster is greater than Cincinnati's 2007 roster. This is offset, at least somewhat, by the 2007 matchup coming in Game 11 instead of Game 2, and Cincinnati's QB, while still being in Year 1 under Kelly, still had extensive playing time at Wake Forest, much more than Dayne Crist.
- West Virginia's 2007 defense, while not necessarily as "star-powered", was more than likely better than this year's Michigan defense is or will be. If not in pure talent, then definitely in terms of understanding the scheme.
- Even with the TOP lopsided, Cincinnati still threw for 300+ yards and put up 400 total yards. Despite this, Michigan's best chance on Saturday lies in controlling the ball, eating the clock and keeping Kelly's offense on the sideline.
- Mauk was Cincinnati's leading rusher. This scenario repeating itself on Saturday with Crist can almost be completely ruled out because they're still protecting his knee, and ND has running backs better than Cincinnati did, anyway.
- While ND's defense is certainly more talented than Cincinnati's was and probably improved from last year (based on a one game sample size against a skittish Purdue team), there is a difference between "improved" and being good enough to stop an offense that put 31 (Stonum's KR TD doesn't count) points on them last year.
Last year I thought we played over our heads in the ND game and got an assist from Weis's stupidity, something Kelly definitely won't do. However, this year, I think this is definitely a game within our grasp. Assuming we reveal more of the offense (and execute, obviously), I don't see Notre Dame slowing us down very often on Saturday. If we take care of the football, we will put plenty of yards and points on the board (...just like we would've in South Bend two years ago if we had protected the ball). On the other side of the ball, well...I'm less confident. Even assuming that Crist is not an all-world QB in his second real game action ever and still a smidge tenative with his knee, I would expect him to hit open receivers that Frazer missed, and I would expect ND's wideouts to catch them unlike UConn's.
Throw it all together in a pot, mix it up, and I think the end result is a similar one as last year's game. Last year I picked ND to win, so I'll keep up the reverse jinx. ND 35, Michigan 31.
September 7th, 2010 at 10:47 PM ^
what was the score
September 7th, 2010 at 10:55 PM ^
which appears to be in synch with the game stats.
I haven't examined ND's current roster in terms of roster numbers, depth and experience, but I'd be really surprised if Kelly isn't in a much better position on those accounts than RR was in his first year.
September 7th, 2010 at 10:59 PM ^
He's clearly in much better shape than Rodriguez was in 2008. In 2008, Michigan started a walk-on QB and only had something like 8 total offensive linemen. Kelly has a 5* QB and what sounds like an okay line situation (on paper). That said, this Michigan team is better than this ND team.
September 7th, 2010 at 11:44 PM ^
I'd feel better about that if it weren't for the fact that we've taken better teams than this year's team down there to face ND squads that supposedly weren't going to offer much opposition, only to lose, sometimes handily. Weird shit happens in South Bend on a consistent basis.
September 8th, 2010 at 12:22 AM ^
UConn apparently had "an okay line situation (on paper)."
We saw how that turned out.
I got me some faith in the D...at least the front 3.
September 8th, 2010 at 8:26 AM ^
September 7th, 2010 at 10:49 PM ^
It'll be an entertaining game, that's for sure. I can't see either one of these teams winning by a large margin.
September 7th, 2010 at 10:51 PM ^
The score of that game was West Virginia 28, Cincinnati 23. The link at the top is to the box score.
September 7th, 2010 at 10:54 PM ^
being a shootout similar to last year game. I still expect Michigan offense to put up at least 30 points.
The key for defense is can they get enough stops for Michigan to win this game. I would expect GERG to dial up blitzes to pressure Crist into making bad decisions.
September 7th, 2010 at 10:56 PM ^
Who shall cover the Rudolph
September 7th, 2010 at 11:04 PM ^
since Rudolph is a complete TE who can block as well as catch balls. He's a matchup problems like Floyd on the outside. Not sure on who would be a suitable player to cover Rudolph.
September 7th, 2010 at 11:13 PM ^
kovacs? doesn't have the size, but he's got the speed and physical presence to be in the right spot and make a stop.
September 7th, 2010 at 10:56 PM ^
I just love speculation, whether it be from respected and loved journalists or mgobloggers. It's really what makes the pre and early season so magical.
September 7th, 2010 at 10:59 PM ^
i entirely agree with your analysis, i'd just emphasize the importance of when this game happens in the season a bit more.
crist was tentative against purdue, didn't seem to look downfield, consistently made the wrong reads on option-style plays, overthrew a couple open men and was downright skittish when they got pressure on him. kelly's offense at cincy worked when they could move down the field in 20 yard chunks in the passing game. last week nd would make a couple first downs and then sputter even against purdue's young and crappy secondary - i just don't see the leap happening this week, horrific secondary be damned. if the game were in november, there is a pretty decent chance that a healthy crist will be carving up defenses. but, unfortunately, its september.
similarly, nobody has figured out how to slow down denard yet. as the season wears on, his strengths and weaknesses are probed and he gets a little wear and tear on the tires, i can imagine his performance dropping off a bit. alas, he's in mint condition at this point and obviously u conn didn't help anybody figure out the blueprint for defending him.
consequently, i think michigan is going to score more often than not when the have the ball and nd is going to score...just not as often. 28 - 24 michigan.
September 7th, 2010 at 11:05 PM ^
lets not put a lot of emphasis on Crist's performance, Armando Allen is an excellant back that will certainly have to be accounted for..This ND team scares me with their potential, and under Kelly I seem to believe he will reach that potential. However, if we can eliminate the deep threat to Floyd and keep their passing game underneath our secondary then I like our chances. No question this game is going to be close...Mich-34-----ND-31
September 7th, 2010 at 11:15 PM ^
Crist is supposed to have a cannon for an arm and by many accounts was "holding back" on any big-play throws against Purdue. In attempt to "surprise" the Wolverines, ND will probably throw deep early and often to expose Michigan's suspect secondary.
Incidentally, I can't find any working video highlights of the ND/Purdue game online. NBC must hold onto that footage tighter than Charlie Weis's belt. Anyone got a link?
September 8th, 2010 at 1:55 AM ^
I mean, obviously they are different teams and staffs, but we were hearing the exact same thing about going deep early and often a week ago.
September 7th, 2010 at 11:36 PM ^
derives from experience. Yes, it's a very young squad, but the players have been learning RichRod's system for three years now. ND's players are still getting acquainted with Kelly's approach. Their good passing and the crowd should keep the game close--and I won't be shattered if Michigan loses--but I think we could prevail.
September 8th, 2010 at 8:04 AM ^
This is true, hopefully they're like our 2008 season in that we got dominated in the 2nd half since our playbook was so small
September 7th, 2010 at 11:39 PM ^
Our offense will hang 45 on the doomed domers. after the game, RR was asked i-forgot-what and said something like, "I was disappointed that we only scored 30 today." !!!
If he sees us capabale of scoring way more than 30, so do I.
I just don't know how many these Dames will manage. (35?)
But know this: we are a dangerous, dangerous team and they need to be very scared.
September 7th, 2010 at 11:57 PM ^
Agreed, people around here were super pessimistic about UCONN (win, but win small) .. I wasn't. Now people are either saying we win small or lose small. Screw that, M by 2+ touch downs.
September 8th, 2010 at 12:03 AM ^
That's what i'm talkin' about !!
September 8th, 2010 at 12:24 AM ^
RichRod's offense punches ND in the mouth repeatedly and Dayne Crist looks like, well, a young QB in a big game (unlike Tate, I suspect he gets nervous). Michigan by 14...Raback that.
September 8th, 2010 at 3:25 AM ^
Agreed.
I'm nervous about every game. This is college football after all... and there is the last two years fresh in my mind (I won't mention the opener three years ago)...
But my fear level for this game is relatively low. I think we win this one decisively.
42-17(/21)
MSU is the next game that's gonna make my nails bleed. I was sure of a win a few weeks ago... Then I really started looking at the match-ups and our secondary got even thinner... Not that I'm predicting a loss...
Edit- BTW...
I do expect Kelly to have success at ND and that they'll once again be a team to worry about. I just don't think it's this year.
2011 or 2012 maybe.
September 8th, 2010 at 1:38 AM ^
0 lost yards. That is remarkable.
*3 "Team" carries not included
September 8th, 2010 at 7:25 AM ^
Is there video of the game online? It would be interesting to see what Cinci did on defense vs. WV.
September 8th, 2010 at 8:20 AM ^