don't know how to move it.
Revisiting Hoke's Timeline
i don't get too emo about whether we win recruiting wars or whatever, but we gotta win games that "we should win" at the very least. Other than that, I just hope for the best.
Get to Indy this year or get the hell out is my opinion
If Michigan goes 9-4 with losses to ND, MSU, NW and OSU (but with a mid-level bowl win), does Hoke come back in 2015?
That would be the absolute worst thing that could happen. 9-4 isn't great but it's acceptable. It would give Brandon a reason to give Hoke another year.
Completely agree it might make Brandon think the team has improved when in reality the schedule just got worse
You say this as if DB has some incentive to keep Hoke other than "it's the best for the program." You know DB has as much reason for us to win as anyone, right? I don't know why people think that Dave Brandon wants the team to be bad or something.
I hear what you're saying, but people generally don't like to be wrong about their hand picked guy. So it's not so much that he has an incentive to keep him because he wants a mediocre program it's that he has a means of convincing himself that his guy really will get the job done.
An A.D., for better of for worse, is defined by his or her football coaching hire(s). Get that wrong and you're usually not long for your job. DB absolutely has an incentive to continue to think he got it right.
Dave Brandon will likely lose his job too if Hoke goes. New presidents want their people in key spots like ad. Just like Brandon was looking to fire RR, it may be the case that the new President has someone he would rather have in the ad job.
that he doesn't give a flip about sports. His two instructions to the AD will be: 1. pay your own way, and 2. don't embarrass the university.
he also understands the lengthy list of problems associated with coaching changes. brandon is prob more intense fan than many on here, hes just in much different position. but i guarantee he does not take coaching changes lightly bc those transitions can be absolute nightmares as we, and he, recently witnessed. he will give hoke as much time as he possibly can without taking too much direct fire. id be shocked if brandon does not allow hoke to see his first large classes as juniors / seniors
If Dave Brandon wanted to win he wouldn't have hired a career loser to be the coach at Michigan. Not sure why so many people try to act like Hoke was this up and coming coaching star. He had one good season at Ball State and one good season at San Diego State not exactly that impressive when you consider he only had 3 winning seasons in his first 8 as a coach. Brandon wanted a puppet that is why you don't see Harbaugh here and that is why you don't see Miles here. Brandon is the Jerry Jones of college great at making money but is to involved with the Football part.
Absolutely agree. God, I do not want to be Nebraska; that blue blood that's stuck with 4 losses a year an not winning the conference. I just want an answer. I want to see a trip to Indy, or I want the team to collapse so UM can move on. The purgatory of just 'good' is lowest on my list. That said, please just win. Please.
We already are, only worse.
Sort of. I mean, we've reached depths of crappiness they haven't even touched, UM has also acheived a bit more as well. Nebraska hasn't won a conference title since 1999. The last time they lost less than 4 games in a season was 2003...when they lost 3 games. They are now perennially just 'good'. At least UM has won the conferece since then, and the 2006 season ranks up there even if it didn't result in any championships. 2011 was a stonger season as well. But yeah, I get what you're saying. UM is quickly heading there.
Well, 9-4 every year won't win many conference titles and no NC's, but it's a 69% winning record. Michigan is 73% all-time and Nebraska is 70%, so its hard to say its unacceptable or even below the standard.
This is discussed all the time on Nebraska boards, with fans pretty split. Guess it depends on how much you value consistency over titles. We Husker fans certainly feel like a few titles are overdue, but we've seen droughts in the past and have been in several conferance championship games in our "down" period.
Personally, I'll take 9-4 every year as the standard and titles when we get them without falling on my sword....as long as its not too long in between. GBR!
if we go 9-3 and we easily win the 9 games we should win and are competitive in the 3 losses to the teams we assume are better than us, it seems like a pretty big improvement
but I'll give my opinion here anyway. Personally, hoping my team loses would never be my first choice. I also want to be upfront and say that I didn't like the Hoke hire when it happened, but I did get onside rather quickly. I would never wish for my team to lose to prove that I was right. I am secure enough with myself that I can admit when I'm wrong and I would much rather be forced to do that in this case than the alternative (which is me being right that BH was a poor hired and will put us even farther behind).
As for this season my first hope is that this team comes out and wins every game and ultimately a NC. I could also handle a season where we finish 11-2 like BH's first year so long as we beat OSU or MSU and win a bowl game. I would put a season like that as second on my list.
If I'm being honest though, if we finish any worse than that I think it's time for a change for the benefit of our program and the only way to make sure that happens is a terrible season. It pains me to say it but that would be my third choice. If we can't get 1 or 2 than I want a season that forces change, not a season just good enough to fool people into thinking we're on the right track if we're ultimately not.
who was probably doing the same thing when Rich Rod was coach
I didn't neg you so I'll get that out of the way to start, but how in the hell did you get that from what I wrote? Either you have difficulty with reading comprehension or I did a lowsy job conveying my point.
I'll try one last time and leave it at that:
I don't have a problem with admitting when I'm wrong and would absolutely welcome doing so if it meant UM was on the right path with BH as our coach. I would love for him to go 11-2 or better this year and never look back, thus propelling our program back to the top where it belongs.
My fear is that a season like 9-4 will be just enough for some epople to think that we're on the right track when in my opinion, that wouldn't be the case. 9-4 in a coaches 4th year with all "his guys" in place tells me we're not on the right track.
What you don't seem to grasp is that for me personally, I would much rather be proven wrong about something and have my favorite team win than be proven right and have them lose. Some people may not feel that way and ultimately being proven right might outweigh everytihgn else (my Wife can be like that sometimes) but I'm just not that type of person. What I want is for my favorite team to win and if doing so makes me look stupid, bring it on.
I don't give two hoots whether it's BH, Urban Meyer, Lloyd Carr, Kate Upton......I don't give a flying f$%# who it is coaching, so long as we're winning. Honestly, I couldn't care less whether I like the HC of UM or not because it's the players and the university I root for, and so long as they win I'm happy.
I hope I was clearer in this post because you either intentionally ignored my previous one completely or I was very unclear as to my point.
Exactly. I'm done with this mediocre and terrible bullshit. 8-4 and 9-3 is not good enough here. It might be good enough for Nebraska (If I was a Nebraka fan and had to put up with 4 losses EVERY YEAR I would flip). Plus the fact that they were blown out 70-21 in the freaking B1G championship game. How do you even let that happen?
It's time to stop pussyfooting around and go toe to toe with OSU. We have the money and resources to do it.
If you think 9-4 is so awful you've forgotten where this program was three years ago.
No the schedule this year is a joke. The only possible ranked teams on the schedule is MSU, OSU, notre dame. As much as I have been a supporter of Hoke, but anything less than a 10-2 regular and a win agianst OSU or MSU he should be fired. Even at 10-2 getting a BCS at large bid may be difficult due to the schedule we play
So if we see vast improvement but come up short of 10-2 he should be fired? Recall if you will, certain Akron and UCONN games last year. Point is, it would be very easy for this team to vastly improve from last year and still come up short of 10-2.
As terrible of a season as that is, it is probably more than enough for Brandon to bring Hoke back. All you need to do is look at Brandon's misleading and defensive press release about Hoke last year to know that it will take at least 2 more 5 loss seasons for Hoke to be fired.
Absolutely. I know people around here sometimes forget/aren't old enough to remember, but 3-4 losses are kind of the norm for Michigan football in recent decades. And to be frank, winning 9 games with one senior on offense would be a damn miracle.
good sense of perspective bronxblue. I am actually kind of glad Lindsay chose Ohio _if_ that means Kugler gets more playing time. The x factor is whether and how much Lindsay would have helped younger players develop. We have all the pieces already, but they need time to mature. Only way Hoke should get fired is if we don't see growth/development over the course of the year. This team will be championship caliber in 2015 and probably above average in 2014. Only way we are great this year is if our defense is top 5 in the country. Those who hold an "Indy or Bust" attitude for 2014 are just plain unrealistic.
"Those who hold an Indy or bust attitude are unrealistic"...
Umm you do realize our own coach...errr...cheer leader set that goal 4 years ago?
There's a difference between having a goal and a minimum for keeping your job. I've my boss goals for my own performance. Those goals would have been different if I knew I needed to hit them or I'd be fired.
But there is a wide chasm between missing Indy and being horrible. If this team wins 8 games, I'm fine with that. That won't get them a conference title, but it will likely point toward a brighter future.
"Two of those coaches had no real resume to speak of and were hired because they were Michigan Men."
69 - 3 losses (Bo)
79 - 4 losses (Bo)
81 - 3 losses (Bo)
82 - 4 losses (Bo)
83 - 3 losses (Bo)
84 - 6 losses (Bo)
87 - 4 losses (Bo)
90 - 3 losses (Mo)
92 - 3 ties* believe me, they felt like losses (Mo)
93 - 4 losses (Mo)
94 - 4 losses (Mo)
95 - 4 losses (LC)
96 - 4 losses (LC)
98 - 3 losses (LC)
00 - 3 losses (LC)
01 - 4 losses (LC)
02 - 3 losses (LC)
03 - 3 losses (LC)
04 - 3 losses (LC)
05 - 5 losses (LC)
07 - 4 losses (LC)
Link reductions were made from 105 in 1978 (95) and again in 1992 which brought the limit to its present number of 85. The shift to 95 essentially drove Bo to a four year cycle - two progressive rebuilding years, a solid year and then the year. (Or at least this is how we felt in the 80's.) He was either caught by the change or intentionally stacked one or two consecutive recruiting classes. The shift to 85 just made it worse.
Interestingly along the way, some teams figured out how to stack the decks (tats and Dodge Challengers, apartments in LA, bag men, agent trips to Miami, oversigning, etc.). Those teams are the ones who have avoid the cycle of several 3-4 loss years with the occasional championship run.
Looking at our roster, this is should be the second rebuilding year or the solid year.
A loss to Northwestern would be devestating if it happened in conjunction with losses to MSU, OSU, and ND.
If we're bowl eligible he should and will be back.
That's a pretty low bar considering this is Michigan, the nonconference schedule has been set to make 6 wins very attainable, and making a bowl game has no longer been established as a reason to bring a coach back at large schools.
"Over my dead body" - Dave Brandon's response to Les Miles being hired here the last clusterfuck coaching search.
5 of the last 6 seasons have been 5 or more loss years.
Welcome to 1951-1968. (Difference is, Michigan actually won a Big Ten title and a Rose Bowl in that era.)
Les Miles is slimy as hell. I don't want that guy. We can win without having to resort to his tactics.
Name me one team in the last 10 years to win a MNC without an element of slime.
Or we could just continue our tour of losing in restaurant bowls where the players admit they don't give a shit.
+1 for restaurant bowls
for +1ing restaurant bowls.
So you have no problem with an abysmal APR, multiple NCAA violations at both schools he's been at, and yanking the scholarships of guys who have already moved into their dorms as freshmen?
Miles is a jackass. Brandon is far from the only guy at Michigan who doesn't like him. (He wasn't even the AD back when Miles wanted this job.) We can be a winning program and still have a shred of integrity. It doesn't have to be an either/or.
Much rather have that over the Gibbons fiasco, back to back restaurant bowls and having coach Dave Brandon running amok all over Hoke.
But I mean if you're content with 5+ loss seasons all the time, who am I to judge?
You're really blaming Hoke for Gibbons - something that happened a year before he got here? You do realize that if Brandon had hired Miles in 2011, the Gibbons thing still would have been hanging over our heads?
And don't mischaracterize my argument - I'm obviously not happy with last year's record. Saying I think we can win and have integrity does not mean I am happy with 7-6. I know you're in high school, but would hope you're intellectually mature enough to get that.
No, I'm not blaming him.
You're acting like we have no off the field chaos.
And yes, I am a senior in HS. The age of the freshmen on this team.
I took you for a few years younger.
I'll take either Harbaugh, and integrity.
I said it when we fired Rich - we need a name brand head coach whose recruits and players believe they are on the path to championships. The parochial non-name brand hire of Brady Hoke was an underwhelming gamble. It looked like it would pay out in 2011 ... down hill from there.
If they don't win in convincing enough fashion this year, I think next year is at risk and the hire is probably a loss. If they win convincingly enough this year (maybe back to 2012 level or a little better), then they have a chance of entering 2015 with positive momentum and a heavy upperclassmen team.
It is possible they can convert Brady Hoke into a name brand coach who exudes reason to believe. It doesn't look likely right now. We'll see.
As I said above: 2015 and 2016 are the years when the heavy recruiting classes should bear competitive fruit.
Are we seriously still dreading NCAA violations?
yep, play to win the game and play it all the way or do not play at all (or at least do not openly state non-championship seasons are failures if not prepared to do whats necessary). good luck consistently beating osu and msu and every team west or south with 100% clean hands....just not possible to consistently win big in this current era with such bs high horse attitudes / practices
We "can" win without resorting to his tactics? Ok let me know when we start winning because it isn't happening anytime soon
You're right, we just cover up rapes....
I would upvote for the restaurant comment if I wasn't in Bolivia
He didn't say that. Someone did say that, but not who you're saying it is.
If you use the same time frame, (1951-1968 = 1996-2013), we've had 5 BIG championships, 4 Rose Bowls and one NC.
is Hoke's offensive line? Where the hell is it?
But, recruiting rankings!
Recruiting rankings what? They're still very young, and played in an incoherent offense the last two years (those who even played).
You were saying?
Surprised it took 26 minutes for the first excuse...
That the incoherent offense was allowed to exist at all is an aggravating factor about Hoke's ability to coach.
Or Borges's ability...he was the actual OC, you know. What happened to him, anyway? Oh yeah, Hoke fired him. I guess maybe Hoke does give somewhat of a shit about this team.
Mostly coming off redshirts/entering their second years as starters.
If he wins 8 or 9, with the offense specifically showing progress under Nuss, he'll stay.
If he wins 7 again or less, I don't think Brandon can ignore the pressure. Either Hoke makes more changes to the staff (Funk) or everyone will go.
No way not with this schedule anything less than 10 wins would b a joke
The three toughest games are on the road.
So you're expecting him to go 2-2 or better on the road against MSU, OSU, ND, and a bowl game? Good luck with that.
team going into Hoke's 4th year with a 5th year senior at QB? My god the bar has sunken so low I can't even see it anymore.
Well, he does have a 5th-year senior QB. That is the ONLY senior on offense, but please don't let that disrupt the argument.
It's his 4th year if he can't split those 4 games he shouldn't b coach anymore. Recruiting is taking hit recently players no longer believe what he says if he can't give results on the field
We can't judge Hoke until at least 10 years of coaching here. Anything less than 10 years is just being irrational and impatient as a fan base.
dude, seriously, if you can use apostrophes you can type out "be"
but why does a game ebing on the road have to be a sure loss? I don't care if we play these guys on the moon, I want to be back in the days when it didn't matter where or when we expected to win. No excuses, no blame, just expecting to win because we were better than the opposition.
The only team I can think of that should be close enough to us that home field advantage should be a factor that tipps the scales in their favor is OSU. No other opponent on our schedule (the way we schedule nowadays) should matter where we play, we should expect to win.
Now just so there's no confusion I want you to make sure you read SHOULD. The reality is we are nowhere near where we should be so yes, expecting to split those games is crazy, but that SHOULD be the expectation and the fact that it isn't is driving me insane.
I think B1G teams expect to win games at home and to compete on the road, but the idea that UM is somehow immune from being average is long-dead. You can't expect UM to win all of their home games because of home-field advantage (which is a semi-real thing) and not have that apply for other teams.
9 wins in the regular season or can him... Leadership just isn't there
Do we need to go over this again? Has anything changed since we went through this exercise every day during November and December?
How about we at least let the next season start before we decide that Hoke is in hotter water than he was four months ago because a grad transfer chose OSU over us. And if anything, Beilein's success should serve to help Hoke, not hurt him. Remember after Beilein's third year when everyone was riled up because the rebuilding wasn't going according to the fans' plans? He shook things up, changed course, and things worked out. Seems like we should give Hoke some time to see if he can do the same thing.
And after Beilein shook things up he produced more the very next year. I'm not willing to say ''Well let's give him until 2015 because Nussimer needs time!'' That's bullcrap. Good coordinators under good regimes produce almost instantly.
But basketball is a completely different animal; you have 7-8 guys who play meaningful minutes for you, and one or two guys making the leap can turn an average team into a contender virtually overnight. Even if 20% of the football team took a major step forward, you can still have weaknesses that mask those improvements.
It took UM a long time to get this bad; it's going to take more than a year to get better.
but how many years before they stop getting worse?
basketball is a completely different animal. I concur. but beilein is a bit of a genius in basketball, recruiting and player development. hoke isn't a genius in anything concerning football. he recruits well enough by being a nice guy...
Chad Lindsay chose OSU instead of Michigan. I had a bunch of maize and blue "Erik + Chad" t-shirts made, and now they're f-ing worthless. Should I take them back to the guy who made them to see if I can get my money back? And feel like a damn fool? Is that what you want? Because I'd rather have my dignity than get my $350 back, thanks.
And who will hold me when the night grows cold? Not Chad Lindsay, I can tell you that.
Of course things have changed. Before, Chad Lindsay wasn't on our team. Now, he isn't even on our team.
I actually laughed out loud. Well played, sir.
my wife wants to know why i'm laughing right now. So I read your comment to her and she looks about as confused as you can imagine.
She thinks I've lost my mind I'm sure.
Only dilemma I have with firing Hoke is then what? Who do u hire? U can bet the staff would change entirely if we hire another outsider. A championship winning OC and a veteran NFL DC would be wasted
I suspect Nussmeier was brought here for more than just to improve our offense.
I assumed as much as well when the hire was announced. Told my buddies that there was a good chance Hoke just brought in his replacement.
If Michigan loses enough games to get to the point where Hoke is going to get fired, it is going to be because the offense is still terrible. If the offense is still terrible, why on earth would you promote the offensive coordinator?
If the offense improves but our record doesn't, it will be on the head coach. It isn't entirely out of the question.
Not that I think it's especially plausible - but if it happens it'll be:
A mediocre, but not bad season.
He won't get fired.
He'll "resign" to take a "less stressful" job in the athletic department.
You foresee this as some sort of LC-type move?
I don't foresee it happening at all. It's certainly unlikely.
Sadly (and against my hopes) I foresee Hoke winning about 7 games this year and getting the whole staff tossed.
...but yes, I could see Hoke being willing to pull a Carr for the good of the program if Brandon gave him the choice between that and outright dismissal.
Just play it out -
An offense ranked in the top 40.
A defense ranked in the top 40.
A final record of 7-6 with another sad bowl loss.
Who takes the blame in this scenario?
By Hoke's standard, the Conference championship winners or bust. By now, it is time to put up or shut up. We have everything a good to great coach needs to have a successful season. Facilities, tradition, brand, stadium, TV markets etc. Not to mention very good recruiting classes the past couple years. There are no more excuses.
What about players?
For one he said etc. and for two he said recruiting classes...Did he really have to get more specific than that for you to figure out he was including players in his list of what a coach needed to win?
8-4 with at least one of the wins against MSU or OSU. Lose both and he is out even at 8-4. We endure a couple of big embarrassing losses and gone. Also needs to win a bowl game.
The threshold should really be a slot in the championship game in his forth year, but I will cut him some slack if there is demonstrable progress. If not, nice guy, but not effective and we have to give someone else four years.
This really is a critical year for many reasons.
but I think Brandon will take anything from Hoke this year other than a losing season. I think Hoke was always going to get a 5th year under Brandon baring absolute disaster.
Lost out on just about a for sure recruit in Hand, two five stars in the '15 class, and has shown no significant improvements in his three seasons... Hoke was riding optimism and the future, and the future is here, we have no optimism, and no good outlook. The "this is Michigan" crap makes no sense with Brady running a mediocre show. He desperately needs a 10 win season or he is toast, IMO.
but I agree with the rest of your statement.
I think this fan base has become idiotic. We have no upper class because Rich Rod couldn't recruit his final year with the cloud over him. Now we want to do that again? Take the message on the bottom of the banner to heart and support the kids. If you can't, root for basketball and stay quiet for the next 8 months.
We have had one strong year in the last 10. Being too patient could give us another. 10. Yes, some patience, but after four years we should be able to see real progress in W/L and on field execution and coaching. It's went backwards since 2011.
Let's see.. Carr stopped recruiting his last season. Rich Rod came in, stunk for a year while alienating everyone, and couldn't recruit after year 2. Now we're paying for that with one of the youngest teams in college football I'd bet. Furthermore, the recruiting cycle has moved up, so that now you have to get kids to commit as juniors. So let's dump Hoke at the end of the year, lose some 2015 commits, and start from scratch in the 2016 commits after the best ones have already narrowed down their programs. At the same time, let's break in a new qb and a new offense and defense, see the team still not win 10 games, and repeat the 3-4 year cycle again.
Honestly, if I were a high school recruit and was choosing between OSU, Bama, and Michigan, and came to this board, I'd choose another school too. The negativity is deafening.
please stop blaming recruting failures on a fucking message board.
If some recruit is dumb enough to make one of the biggest decisions of his life based on a negative message board instead of, I don't know, the coaching staff, the facilities, the academics, the teammates, the proximity to home, the playing style, the uniforms, the band, and about 300 things more relevant to college football then I think we dodged a bullet by not landing that recruit.
the win-loss record of the coach
and the trajectory of the win-loss record
while we're at it the age of the existing team as it relates to opportunity for playing time. and the effectiveness of the team on your side of the ball
We have had one strong year in the last 10.
I would say we've had three (2004, 2006 and 2011), but in any event, the current staff wasn't around for seven of them. You can fault Hoke for what he's done, or not done, over the last three years. You can't fault him for what happened before then.
At least we have a few people around here who haven't completely lost it.
Hoke was able to take Carr's last class of recruits and RR's first year of recruits and turn them into a good squad in 2011. We've since had two seasons playing with mostly underclassmen because of the poor recruiting and attrition in RR's last couple years (some his fault, some not) and two injured QBs. Let Hoke get his recruits in and matured a little, and let's see what happens.
Why the hell does someone inevitably always think that criticism of the coaches means they aren't 'supporting the kids'. There are few people here who don't support the team even when things are going crappy. When boos rained down during the season, it wasn't the kids the fans were booing. It's the coaches.
And you think the no upper class because RR couldn't recruit during his final year has to do with message boards? No, it had to do with the toxic feelings surrounding the program because they weren't winning. Whether there's a toxic feeling actually in the locker room is a different matter, but you can look at the fact that UM has added, what, one? 2014/2015 recruit since last freaking August as a sign that outsiders don't know what to think about UM. This problem isn't on message board posters, it's on the fact that UM isn't winning. Isn't winning after hope was sold three years ago. And that is on the coaches.
You're confusing feelings within the program with feelings on mgoblog. This blog's readership represents a very small portion of the Michigan fanbase. Everything you said about interviews feeling like this and that is only you reading into comments what you want to, as mgobloggers are wont to do. Sneer at the youth excuse all you want but it has been a real problem. We have a total of 1 senior starter on offense and what, 5 total on offense and defense? There is only one on the OL and DL combined. Not everyone dismisses this reality as a weak excuse but most on this blog do. I have no reason to doubt anything the players are saying. Theyre too young and inexperienced with the media to know how to bullshit properly.
some time. Where you once had homers who defended UM at any optimistic cost, you now have an almost unanimously exhausted, defensive, and ironic crowd. And the tide has definitely turned against Hoke. It's not just here.
Of course the tide has changed, didn't you hear...Hoke changed the tide himself. People even buy UM shirts in Ohio now.
some time. Where you once had homers who defended UM at any optimistic cost, you now have an almost unanimously exhausted, defensive, and ironic crowd. And the tide has definitely turned against Hoke. It's not just here.
People who comment on Freep and Detroit News articles shouldn't even count as people. They're less than people. They belong in psych wards.
Add in the good folks who comment on MLive and we've got psych wards filled to bursting.
Well thought out
Is such a small class with like 1 player per position, I think there's this false sense of guys passing us by. I've been gripped by that same too, but Michigan is consistently viewed with enthusiasm in the quotes I read from kids who make it on campus. Michigan is in the top 5 (or whatever) of so many kids we are going to land some via straight probability alone.
You can try to frame up this timeline on Hoke but I think its not real. I don't think it exists. I think Hoke would have to sink pretty low to make Brandon want to engage in a new coaching search and wash out all of the coaching staff, make all the recruits question/re-think their decisions, turn the program on its head once again, in the name of making it better.
We can whine and pine about how Hoke doesn't wear his emotions on his sleeve and consistently gives meh press conferences, but that doesn't make him objectively less in the eyes of the Brandon. Hoke is who he is, love him or hate him, and he's not changing to please you or i.
I think it would take a serious financial event, like the W-L record (and the quality of play) directly affecting the ability to garner PSDs and obviously seat sales, however those are done (season being preferable because it nets a PSD, StubHub dumping just covers the seat cost only). I hear a lot of griping about the sales, but it seems like people being weeded out live a long way from Ann Arbor, or are soft fans who would rather watch in the living room instead of in the stadium, or gripe about the current home schedule strength. Bill Martin scheduled these games....and I recall the uproar when PSDs were first introduced...recall all the people who had season tix on the 50yd after having them for 3 generations? And who had to relinquish them because they now had to lay a $1000 bill on each of their seats before buying? The fanbase apparently survived that without a 20% hit....
Trying to put an orderly timeline doesn't match up with the reality of a football program. We all want to win, I get it. I do too. Wait until fall and see what we actually have. Trying to fill in the offseason with gloom and doom is a poor excuse for going out and enjoying life and enjoying spring and summer, if you ask me.
THIS IS MICHIGAN! That's why... I guess.
OSU also had an AD who would have been summarily executed by the fanbase if he came back with anyone other than Urban Meyer. Michigan fans just aren't that demanding, so unless we luck into a gem like Stanford did with Harbaugh, then I don't have any idea who we could get. Our AD seems perfectly willing to torpedo every connection the program has with talented alum coaches, so....I don't know.
Based on the limited evidence available, I'll venture to say that we'll lose to all 3 rivals, and probably lose another couple that we shouldn't. Hoke will be retained, but will anyone in the lockerroom or fanbase believe in him?
We'll be loaded the following year, but I worry about the dark cloud over the club, and will it keep us from beating MSU and OSU at home. If we fall to them again, there's no way Hoke keeps his job (nor DB), and we're still another 5-10 years away from competing with the best of the B1G, what with the coaching change and attrition.
If a promising, enthusiastic, prospective hire becomes available and is privately, unofficially, receptive to the position, then I think DB replaces BH next year. Otherwise Hoke stays to see 2015-16.
But after that, all bets are off.
One possibility: if Nuss does a fantastic job over next two seasons, I could see Hoke getting demoted-by-promotion to some made-up "AD in charge of football" type-position, and Nuss named HC with Hoke involved on recruiting level semiformally, having "graduated" from HC'ing.
Stranger things have happened.
But in answer to your original question, I don't think realistically Hoke will be let go after 2014-15. Not sure if that's a good thing. I THINK it is, though.
Have stranger things than that really happened before? That seems pretty damn stange...
One possibility: if Nuss does a fantastic job over next two seasons, I could see Hoke getting demoted-by-promotion to some made-up "AD in charge of football" type-position, and Nuss named HC with Hoke involved on recruiting level semiformally, having "graduated" from HC'ing.
Brady Hoke has been a head coach since 2003. He is not going the Luke Fickell route. That's not plausible at all at this point in his career.
Fast forward to 9/21/14. Does the Hoke demotion-by-promotion with Nuss taking over still sound so bat$hit?
Why don't we see what Nussmeier's offense looks like on the field before we hit the eject button?
I don't think anybody is hitting the eject button. I mean, I don't think anybody here has said they're not going to watch football this year because they might play bad. I suppose some people are not buying tickets because of that though...
However, it's a message board in an offseason to discuss this kind of stuff. It's a completely fair question to ask what people's feelings are about how the coaches are doing and such. Besides some very unlikely events such as half the team having to sit out the year because of a bus accident, it's also fair to discuss how hypothetical performances this season may affect one's preception of the program going forward. I mean what else are we supposed to do in the offseason? Work? Talk with the family? Hike? Bah!
Here's my DOOZY:
The timing is shaping up well in that if Hoke tanks this year, Brandon can turn to Pat Narduzzi (see what I did there) much in the way Michigan turned to a certain fiery assistant on Woody's staff.
Simply put - what Narduzzi has done over the last few years with average recruiting classes is borderline legendary.
He may rub people the wrong way but I don't recall Bo being the modicum of calmness and pleasantry when he arrived (or departed).
Hoke just may be too nice for the job of competing in this ruthless era of college football.
Still rooting for him, we'll see.
Bo was not an assistant on Woody's staff when we hired him. He'd been a head coach at Miami (Oh) for several years.
We wouldn't have hired Bo straight off Woody's staff, and we mostly likely will never hire Narduzzi or any other assistant as our head coach - with good reason. Assistants are a gamble. Some aren't cut out to be head coaches.
Hoke was just as big of a gamble as Narduzzi would be.
If Hoke is fired and Narduzzi wanted to come here you call him the fuck up if you're not a complete idiot.
Completely wrong. Hiring a coordinator who has never had a HC job is a much bigger gamble than a HC who has had success at multiple stops. There are lots of examples of very successful OC/DCs who have not done well when given the reigns. Kiffin and Muschamp are the two examples that pop to my head immediately.
And stoops and fisher would say the exact opposite.
No one will argue that coordinators never make good head coaches, though Jimbo Fischer is a special case in that he was a coordinator and HC-in-waiting at the same school for a long time. And which Stoops are you talking about? Because he didn't do well in Arizona is that's the one. I'm not sure those are the examples you should have gone with. Maybe Charlie Strong is better. Or Mark Dantonio, but even he took a little while, and didn't really have success until his second HC gig.
Bob Stoops was never a head coach until Oklahoma.
GASP! You mean a school like Oklahoma with all their prestige decided to hire a coach with no head coaching experience after a decade of being terrible?!
You can find random exceptions to every rule.
I'm not so sure I'd be calling Narduzzi up until I had some very good intel on whether MSU's strong defenses were the product of his coaching (as opposed to being the product of Smilin' Mark Dantonio's coaching or a combination of Smilin' Mark and Pat D's collective efforts). Several observers on this board seem to think that Narduzzi is just implementing Dantonio's defense, and that Dantonio is the brains behind MSU's defensive success.
In addition, DC is a much different job than head coach. Head coachinginvolves a lot of PR, and a much greater scope of management than being a coordinator. Narduzzi's never shown that he's capable of fulfilling those roles. So I guess I'm in the complete idiot camp on this one.
But if you're gonna be an idiot, you may as well be complete.
To be coaching for his job this year. DB is demanding and wants progress and results. Hoke had results with RRs guys, but hasn't had much in the transition to his guys. Gotta win 9 or back to a MAC program for him. Who's better out there? No idea who would want to come to michigan to coach... Last two coaching searches didn't quite get who was desired most. I'm rooting for him, I like him! Gotta chance to meet him when he was inducted in the Fairmont High School Hall of Fame and he was already recruiting my 8 year old. He said he wants my boy on D! Watch out for the number 2 on him in '24! Go blue!!
How about we wait for a couple games to actually be played this fall first.
Please MGoBlog community, I am not sure if I can take a full summer of posts like this.
Hey, anybody want to post about their favorite tv show, some NBA stuff or their thoughts on jerseys... Nike or Adidas - thoughts?
I'm with ya, man. This place is becoming absolutely unbearable to read. Bunch of ninnies.
Agreed. Way too much overreacting.
Just want to have a fun MGoBlog summer
Maybe I'm not the fan I once was. Maybe I'm getting old. Maybe something inside my head broke. But I simply can't endure much more Michigan-based angst.
That's not to say I give up on the team. I absolutely do not. But I'm going to have fun being a fan come hell or high water if I can help it.
You sound like Sansa Stark. Just wanting things to be pretty while the world is burning around her.
I have plenty of doubts about Hoke, but there are two options: recognize that as fans we have absolutely no control over the situation and step back from the ledge, or just crap our pants like 14-month-old toddlers. Every day.
I should have known better than to open this thread but it was a slow day at work. Previous to this I was happily going about being optimistic about next season (as I always do during the off-season) imagining winning the B1G championship etc, then I opened this and got sucked in....I gotta get outta here.
as always it comes down to the Al Davis factor...."just win baby"
If Hoke doesn't have a great year this coming season and does not capture the B1G in 15 I think his job is going to be on a very hot hot-seat
I'm gonna coach Michigan. I can win 7 games a year. Book it.
By the 2015 season, Hoke will have a team with balanced experience, and built solely with players he recruited. Of the ranking bear themselves out, a very talented group as well.
Next they really have a good shot at getting into the championship game, and beating state and Ohio. That would likely mean 10 wins, and he would be .500 against his rivals. That would be more than enough. Also, way too early to pushe the panic button on recruiting as so far it has been excellent, and they are in on more than enough great players to fill up the small 2015 class. With a great year in 2015, the program is on it's way. That is the goal and expectation, so until the 2015 season is over, it's too soon to start over again.
Since when is the standard 5 years?
I can think of a certain coach in Arizona who'd probbly disagree with you.
That'll cut it short a little.
Standard is different if you are not a "Michigan Man", whatever the hell a Michigan Man even means nowadays.
Just curious though. How long are we going to keep blaming Rich for? If we still suck in 2020 will it still be his fault like some special people on here think it is now?
I'm not blaming Rich at all. I was the biggest Rodriguez supporter on this blog. I'm not a Hoke hater either even though sometimes it sounds like it. I hate the double standard because of the "Michigan Man" factor. Who gives a flying fuck if you played or coached at the University of Michigan. If you're a good football coach, who can win games doing things the right way then you will have my support. That's all that matters to me.
Is there a double-standard? Or is it just that Hoke's first two years (19-7) were much better than RR's (8-16), which meant that he entered year 3 with no pressure while RR was on the hot seat?
that many fans and media members disliked RR before he even coached one game because he was not a "michigan man," thus turning that phrase into a total farce.
No, as soon as RR's last class is gone, he can no longer be blamed. And that counts the class of 2011, which was mostly him. Many of those guys are gone already, but that class was awful, and it wasn't Hoke's fault. It wasn't RR's fault entirely either, so when I say that something is RR's fault, I don't mean to blame simply the person of Rich Rodriguez, but the era. It's RR's fault, in that it's not Hoke's fault.
Those guys are all seniors or RS juniors, so the only ones that will be around after this year are the ones we want to be. So to answer your question more succinctly, one more year.
No, as soon as RR's last class is gone, he can no longer be blamed.
If the Sugar Bowl season can be credited towards "Carr's seniors" as Brandon disingenuously did, then Rodriguez can certainly be blamed just as disingenuously for the state of the program, and all of the wreckage he left, well after his last players have left.
With all of the weird stuff that has occurred since his hire (the noodle on the stadium grounds, the various trial balloons floated and then denied - like a possible mascot, and the band not going to the Alabama game, then they do) I am not sure I have ever heard Brandon ever admit to a mistake (I would doubt that he thinks the pasta bowls were a great idea too, they just failed in their execution).
Brandon will not fire Hoke and thus admit a mistake, unless he has little alternative. W/L alone will not force his hand. But, if there is a big and on-going problem with attendance (one of Brandon's own making) and donations (again, much of this Brandon's own making), in conjunction with a poor W/L record on Hoke's part, then I could see Brandon blame Hoke (and of course Rodriguez will be alluded to as well) and pull the trigger.
I hope Hoke turns it around, but I have a feeling things aren't going to get that much better with him as the head coach. I wouldn't speak for anyone else, but I haven't felt less enthusiastic about football for a long time.
i don't know what nick baumgardner's background is and i'm not much a fan of mlive. but i like most of nick's articles, and his twitter response to the chad lindsay decision was more onpoint than anything else i've seen. he wrote simply "win games." and that's the answer to all of your questions. win games and you appease the fan base. win games and you win recruiting wars. win games and people stop questioning coaches, ticket policies, etc. there's not much nuance in reading hoke's tea leaves. if he wins, he'll stay. if he doesn't, he'll get fired. whether that's at the end of this year or the end of next year probably won't matter in the long run. if he can win games, he'll do it consistently and if he's not winnning soon he won't ever do it. all this is a way of saying there are no golden nuggets of thoughts here and no sense in outlining a timeline. if he doesn't win more, he'll be gone eventually.
Agree..Nick does great stuff and is one of the best Michigan follows on Twitter. He is very rational and unbiased and seems much more on top of the program than most of the other beat writers. Regarding his background, he is actually an MSU grad but He does a great job regardless.
So the Chad Lindsay thing spawned all of this? Literally nothing new. None of you even know if the guy could have been admitted or what his major would have been. Maybe he barely graduated from Alabama and we couldn't find some BS grad program for him. How many Alabama grads get into grad programs at Michigan? We've had decades to put together easy programs for undergrad athletes but the situation of an inferior student getting admitted to a grad program doesn't happen often and maybe the school wasn't too excited about it. I know I'd be pissed if I worked my ass off to get into a grad program and saw some unqualified football player sitting next to me.
I'm sorry but it's just too obvious that football and basketball players receive preferential treatment in admissions to graduate programs at Michigan. Have you ever heard of a scholarship athlete who has already graduated but still has a year of eligibility left, NOT being admitted into a master's program? Maybe someone who doesn't have a chance of playing and is viewed as just occupying a valuable scholarship.
If Lindsay wanted to be here, and the coaches wanted him, he'd be admitted.
Can you name anyone who has done it?
Do you seriously think Jordan Morgan was sweating it out wondering if he would be accepted into the graduate program in engineering with its 23% acceptance rate?
Jordan Morgan wasn't a transfer student. The point was that Lindsay is a transfer student, and for all we know, the rules are different when you didn't get your degree in Ann Arbor. That, and Morgan is an engineer; it's not like he graduated with a "general studies" degree or something.
he graduated from Alabama and would be seeking entry into a grad program like any other grad applicant.
Most redshirt seniors aren't in grad school so I don't know what your point is.
and Hoke keeps his job for another year. Michigan's defense surprises and play rather well all year, while the offense is boring but "serviceable" enought to get first downs.
Further, I think Michigan's defense beats MSU's strength next fall (offense), but UM loses to ND, PSU and Ohio.
Michigan has a comparatively talented team in the BIG10 with more depth than the last 3 previous seasons, one of the nation's best DCs in Greg Mattison and a proven, energetic OC in Nussmeier.
Ironically, despite all the doom and gloom thus far, it is possible that Michigan exceed expectations significantly in 2014 despite Brady Hoke not being a Top 10 college football coach.
I could also see Hoke succeeding yet in a kind of caretaker ceding-some-coaching role. Seems increasingly doubtful, though. . .
I wouldn't pick us to lose to PSU. They will start feeling their depth issues, they have a new offense to learn and they have to come to the Big House, where we've played quite well under Hoke. I think O'Brien was a very good coach, and although James Franklin is good, he's not as good. And they lose some talent from that team last year, including all everything WR Allen Robinson.
Penn State will be a big game, but I do not expect us to lose it.
Frankly, I'm expecting the defense to be very GOOD, and it shouldn't be a surprise. Based on the maturity we should have (most experience since 2006 - see link) and Mattison's ability to get more aggressive with a very deep secondary, our offense should have time to mature. Someone else compared them to MSU's process of the offense finding its way as the year progressed last season - they were awful to start the year. All comes down to if we see progress on offense, but the defense should be a given.
Because the Lindsay kid picks Ohio we start a thread about Hoke's timeline? Fire Hoke he didn't get a center that was gonna make our team 14-0!
at the Detroit News, and the bleak comments section there, then came over for the Lindsay news. And because I sense that he's on a much shorter leash with a great part of the fanbase now down on him. And because I think the tide has shifted a little and he no longer has two years.
Everything the OP says is conjecture from the mind on one person who knows nothing and has no power. Hoke will be just fine.
fire everybody. Start from scratch every four years. Hire some guy coaching a middling D1 program in hopes they turn it into a national title then get rid of him after four years as well. If you aren't changing, you aren't succeeding.
How the hell can't these coaches see the overall attribute numbers next to these kids like I see in my NCAA game? I mean seriously, Green came in with a 85 overall right? Hoke should have spent all 10 hours to Lindsay on "Program Tradition." If NCAA taught me anything, its how to sit my fat ass on the couch and guide a football program.
No way we hire Narduzzi. Bo was tough but he would neve have his players try to physically injure players after the whistle as in 60 minutes of unnecessary roughness.
If Narduzzi decided tomorrow that he wanted to coach the defense at The University of Michigan, I imagine we'd make some room for him.
What about National Championship-winning, multiple-time Conference Championship-winning, NFL-experienced, recruiting guru and defensive coordinator Greg Mattison?
What world is this?
earns more years.
Hoke's year 3 was on par with the year 3 that got RR fired in "The Process" that duked up recruiting for another year.
Poor hire by a weak excuse for an AD, will likely get corrected after a five-year cycle -- a lot like the Callahan experiment at Nebraska, this will undermine M performance for another 5-6 years.
You can't just compare both coaches' year 3's and say it's the same. Years 1 and 2 for RR were so awful that his leash was much shorter. Also, we were completely healthy in Year 3 for RR, yet we got absolutely destroyed in every game we lost. Through 10 games, most people felt RR would get a 4th year, but then he lost to Wisconsin at home by 20, OSU by 30 and Mississippi St by 38. Hoke hasn't done anything like that. This is also after getting beat up at home by MSU.
Was that the Wisconsin game were they basically ran the ball every play and we simply couldn't stop them once? Brutal game to watch
Yeah. After the game Bielema went on to say "We ain't pretty". Obviously his take on the RR offense.
Hoke took over a team that went 7-6 and got beat in it's last 3 games by 20, by 30 (thanks to a Tressel kneel down on our 5) and by 38. Trending up my ass!
I think it was pretty obvious that all we needed moving from 2010 to 2011 was to a) not tinker too much with the offense that RR had established and b) get somebody with a brain (Mattison) on the defense to put out the tire fire. Those two things happened and voila...11-2 and a BCS win.
basically, we hired a second-tier Mac/mountain west-level coach and we have a second-tier Mac/mountain west-level team, which amounts to a mid-level b1g team. we can't really expect more than that until hoke shows us that he's capable of more than that. 2011 can die, as far as hoke's resume is concerned. those players weren't his. we'll see what he's really got this year and, if he lasts, next year.
That's a silly argument, but he wasn't "mid-level" in either of those conferences. By the time he left, he was at or near the top of his respective league, despite both times coaching teams who are perpetual bottom dwellers.
Hoke's records at ball state are as follows:
Average it out and that's second-tier in the Mac.
his San Diego state records are as follows:
that's second-tier, too...
what the hell are you saying is a silly argument? that we can't allow his 2011 year be his crowning achievement for his resume or that we should wait to see what he does this year and maybe next?
Do you know how difficult it is to have success at programs that have sucked for decades? Quite different, yet he had success at both stops. That doesn't make him a second-tier coach. Take a look at where those schools were before he got there.
dude, he had a year at ball state that raised eyebrows. the next year, he had a near-perfect season. he had a decent year at San Diego state. 9-4 is good in the mountain west. he didn't exactly turn them into a national power. so yeah, what he did was difficult, but what are you saying exactly? the reason hoke was hired at Michigan was because his last San Diego state team lost by narrow margins when they lost. they were "either way" games. cool. but what national powers are in that conference that an elite coach, which is what you're trying to make coach hoke out to be today, couldn't go undefeated, or nearly undefeated, against?
The trajectory he had SDSU on, they would have gone undefeated or close to it. He took them from an awful team to 9-4 in just two years, you can't expect a whole lot more than that. That doesn't make him a "second tier" MWC coach. He was Coach of the Year in both leagues. That means he was at least one of the best coaches in both leagues. That's what I'm saying.
Let's not get pulled toward extremes. Hoke does have a fairly impressive track record of resurrecting moribund programs. Last season's woes don't erase his earlier accomplishments. He has also demonstrated an ability to recruit elite talent and, relatedly, hire top shelf assistant coaches. But the recent mediocrity is troubling and a possible indication that he may be in over his head with respect to overseeing an elite program and getting the most out of his players.
All that can be said now is that this season is crucial. There are no more excuses.
this...is where I'm at with it. when Urbs was at Utah, he tore it up to the point where he looked like a big fish in a small pond. he needed something bigger. hoke grew into the big fish in the Mac and needed a bigger pond. so he went to the mountain west and started swelling, but moved to a bigger pond before he really showed he was ready. and now we're going nuts because he was a medium -sized fish in a medium-sized pond who is now a medium-sized fish in lake Michigan. if he doesn't blow up this year, he could be in trouble...
I do not see how this myth continues to live on. Here is Ball State's record the three years prior to Hoke's arrival (under Bill Lynch):
5-6, 5-6, 6-6
Here are Hoke's records at Ball State:
4-8, 2-9, 4-7, 5-7, 7-6, 12-1
Each of Hoke's first four years was worse than each of the three years prior to his arrival. Only in Hoke's fifth year did he improve upon Lynch's record (and only by half a game). He had one outlier year, and used that to propel him into a better job. But his record isn't anything like those of coaches who consistently and significantly improve the results of the teams they take over (e.g., Harbaugh, Meyer, etc.). Heck, Turner Gill had a better track record of improvement in the MAC during the same time period, taking a Buffalo team that had won 1 game (2003), 2 games (2004), and 1 game (2005) under the previous coach, and then leading them to 2 wins in his first year, 5 in his second, and 8 in his third (and beating Hoke's ranked Ball State team for the MAC championship).
...and to this I say heaven help our team...
I did take a look at where those schools were before he got there... in the case of Ball St., it as pretty much where they stayed while Hoke as coah.
The previous Ball St. coach had an almost identical winning % at Ball St. as Brady Hoke.
Ball St. all time winning % is HIGHER than Brady Hoke at Ball St.
Rocky long must be ready for a big-time job, too, because he hasn't won less than eight games since Brady left San Diego state... his winning percentage is much higher. let's trade hoke for him... I kid, but seriously, we shouldn't be duped into thinking hoke is better than a mediocre coach. he'll run off a string of so-so years and then he'll break that string with a really good year, and then it'll be back to so-so. that's the pattern, at least. I hope he pulls this thing off this year and finds something sustainable for the future. he's no beilein, but the wizard next to him is showing him exactly how to create something that'll last, though it's on a smaller scale, as far as team and staff size. if the athletes are to be students of the game, the coaches should be, as well. I don't know what hoke is studying, or if he is studying at all, but he needs to immerse himself in something he can turn around and teach thoroughly to his staff and his players--something that can be a calling card for the team. if it's manball, then he needs to study Wisconsin, Alabama (he seems to be addressing this with the nussening, and derrick green looks primed for going primal in this bitch), and the Kansas city chiefs on Tecmo super bowl. if it's defense, he should eat, sleep, shit and jerk to Steelers iron curtain footage, the '85 bears and those God-forsaken Spartans. I hope he can find something. I can't stand another year like last year. I want him to do well...
His first year he inherited a bunch of seniors and won a BCS game...since then his recruiting has been great but he's played with a ton of young kids..the next two years will be very telling..hiring nuss was and will be the solution to our offensive woes as well.
IMO win 2 of 3 rivalry games and go to Big 10 championship game. Anything else is unacceptable.
I think we need wins against MSU and OSU. I can stomach a loss to ND. Agreed that we have to get to Indy.
The search for a new coach has already started, but Brandon is not going to replace Hoke unless he finds a suitable replacement. Whether Hoke stays or goes is not predicated on field performance, but rather available "better" coaches. Could be the end of this year or the next.
Can you clarify?
My guess is he probably can't.
If there's subs, ANYTHING can happen!
Beilein is going to pull double duty.
A lot are pissed and have been putting pressure on Brandon. Apparently, they like Hoke (these same guys didn't like RR at all) and want him to stay, but they have little confidence his abilities as a head coach.
Brandon has started "contingency planning" for the head coaching job much like what his with the OC. Borges wasn't going anywhere unless we got someone much better to replace him. Getting Nuss was not contrived from pure unicorn dreams, Brandon was putting out feelers all year. Clear and calculated is how he works. And to be frank, I like that.
If Hoke performs to expectations (and I don't know what that is to Brandon), then he'll quell the contingency plan. If not, then he'll (hopefully) have good options to exercise.
I asked these guys if this is how it worked with RR. They seem to think that Brandon really wanted to keep RR one more year to implement a contingency plan, but there was just too much pressure and not enough time to make the Hoke hire as smooth as he would have liked.
These guys know a lot. They know the real reason why miles and Carr don't get along, but no one seems to believe me when I tell the story.
I was told a different story.
Just so we can daydream a little? Unfortunately, while the Harbaugh brothers are two of the absolute best coaches in the business and also have ties to the program, I don't see either one coming to Ann Arbor. No up and coming (or established) superstar coach even seems like a possibility at this point.
In fact, I didn't even ask them.
I see slight improvement. I see an 8-4 season. I see a win against MSU on the road, which should slow some critics. ND is a toss up every year. I think they have the potential to beat OSU, but on the road, they're probably not there yet. Another close game, but a loss seems reasonable. I expect slight improvements, but the weaknesses of the o-line, the inconsistent running game, and lack of a dominant defensive line keeps this team from winning tough games with much consistency. But, I do expect the backend on defense to be pretty danged solid. I do expect to see flashes from Gardner, Funchess, Canteen, and Green/Smith on offense. I do beleive the Peppers hype and I think his skills, personality, and confidence will breath some life and competitiveness into the secondary. Couple that with an experienced Countess and Wilson and an improved Lewis and Stribs and I think the back end will be pretty good. With all the experience at LB it's hard to see them struggling unless the d-line really sucks, which I don't think they will bad enough for that to happen. I expect a slightly better season and a better bowl appearence. But, that will put Hoke on the hot seat in 2015 with a team that is finally both talented, deep, and old enough to win with no excuses. If he doesn't win 9+ games and beat OSU and MSU in 2015 that is when the real pressure and possible dismissal of Hoke could occur. Personally I think an 8-4 season with a road win at MSU and a close road loss at OSU in 2014, but a 9-10 win season in 2015 with wins at both rivals is plausable. I could see it go either way. My hunch is Hoke does enough to stay for a few more years. That's just me.
When's the last year of Hoke's contract? If it's 2014, you can't bring him back without an extension.
He really has to step it up. He's in over his head and another season with a losing record against rivals and he will most likely be gone. I personally hope that somehow the 49er's continue to fall apart and Jim Harbaugh finally is offered the job. I know for a fact that he has never been offered and most likely would have came when Rodriguez was hired.
I fear another clusterfuck "search" is coming.
How are the 49ers falling apart? Besides Aldon Smith being a nutcase, they're fine. They were in the SB in the 2012 season, we're in the NFC Championship game last year, and that was their third straight appearance. What leads you to believe they're falling apart?
Harbaugh has been spectacularly successful at both Stanford and the 49ers, yet amazingly he's definitely feeling at least some heat.
There have been many stories here about players being sick of his methods, and about Harbaugh's poor relationship with GM Trent Baalke. I know a kid who played for him at Stanford who said he basically tuned him out after awhile; allegedly some 49ers players openly defied him.
Harbaugh is without question a great coach, but he's also pretty abrasive and kooky - heck, we all know the shitstorm his UM comments caused.
He would certainly have plenty of offers if/when the niners push him out (of if he gets tired of dealing with Baalke), but it's not farfetched to believe he has a limited shelf life with a single NFL team. His brother seems far better at handling the political side of big-time coaching.
Long term, he may be better suited to college, with his intensity and rah-rah methods.
They won't fire him as long as keeps winning. Winning cures all.
I don't disagree with you - but if they have a sub-par year, he probably has to watch his back.
More likely, at some point it will just be so uncomfortable he leaves.
Disgusted? That's a little harsh, wouldn't you say?
His dog pooped all over the house. I'd be disgusted too.
Hoke will be here in 2015 even if he has a losing season. And I'm OK with that.
But 2015 is the end of the experiment. If there are still no results by the end of 2015, the shit hits the fan.
I can get on board with that.
In for a penny, in for a pound. As it were.
No way that happens...ridiculous
Beat Appy State. Take one game at a time.
8 win season with a win against MSU or OSU and he's safe for another year. 8 win season and getting shlacked by OSU and MSU (not sure ND even matters at this point) and he's gone. Lose to App State week one and we have a new coach before the ND game kicks off.
Brandon is safe behind Beilein for now.
The real question is, who would replace Hoke? I doubt you'll lure a Harbaugh to come here and God Know's Brandon won't look at a resume unless they are a Michigan Man.
Michigan Man is the dumbest hiring criteria we could have.
Agree 100%. It is on two levels:
1) Bo's true intent of that term was a man who loves Michigan, I believe. Not someone from the coaching tree....
2) But if you take it to literally mean "from the coaching tree" - well, that tree was burned down by Lloyd Carr, and Rich Rod pissed on its ashes.
I'm amazed how much more time you get to turn around a program if you are a Michigan man who can barely put a sentence together and realizes after the season that he should have probably addressed the leadership issues in the locker room.
Brandon looked for excuses to fire RR. Now he is almost in the position of looking for excuses to keep Brady Hoke.
My take: the AD is the person who should be fired this time around. Then hire Brady Hoke a spread guy for an OC and let Michigan play 21st century football. Brady Hoke is a very good coach, but we will never know as long as the AD keeps meddling with coaching decisions.
There it is.
A world fucking record.
The first FIRE NUSSMEIER on mgoblog.
Upvote for name alone, my Dad completely restored a '69 Mustang with a 428CJ. What a great piece of American machinery.
nuff said. When I first met Madonna she had a red 60's-vintage Mustang. Later I knocked into her outside the Gramercy in Central Park one afternoon and she was checking out. . . some fugly 90s verion that Ford was doing a fancy promo on.
Or it's over. Sad that a mediocre 8 wins might be good enough.
The spike was early on- then varying negative slope after
To me it is very simple. Hokes first year was great. Very close controversial game with Iowa which we lost and a crazy windy game at MSU loss from going undefeated! We win one of those and we are in the BIG champ game and if some how win that we are in NC discussion but prob left out. Hokes second year we lose to #1 Bama #2 ND # 3 OSU with our starting QB and RB hurt in a close away game. Last year was not a great year obviously but up to this point Hoke has been competitive in every loss except Bama. That was also an opener where Saban with a far superior team had months to prepare.
With RR we were sub .500 and getting blown out by our rivals. So let stop the comparison. Lastly:
DC: Greg Mattison - Ravens DC , check!
OC: Nuss - OC Bama 1 NC, check!
We are in good hands. Just let it play out!
(Question- when is Hokes contract up? We need this renewed to multiple years to show support of our head coach for recruiting reasons. So this year is important in that respect depending on renewing his contract)
portends good things to come and not just some bizarro universe that we never get to enter.
Okay... The shock is over. Stepping back from off the ledge.
Thank you, more centered members of the community.
I'll be back for more therapy when the next perceived crisis arrives.
If I can emotionally disengage, this is going to be a fascinating season.
It's really not as difficult as you might think. Sort of like when I quit smoking in 2008 after some 25 years or so of the habit. The emotional drain the team took on me over the past 6 years or so (and ESPECIALLY last year's PSU game) killed a part of me that was very passionate about Michigan football for a very, very long time.
It doesnt matter nearly as much to me as it once did. Which is why giving up my tickets this year wasnt hard at all.
Killed the same part of me too fellow Clevelander. Hoke just hasn't given me any on-field reason to believe things will improve. He brings no tactical advantage to our team. So our on-field success I feel is mostly in the hands of our coordinators.
at about the same time, so I've got all this stuff tangled like a dying vine inside me--probably need some therapy to sort it all.
I could easily disengage by not watching. But if I watch, not so easy for me.
Same. I was probably one of the biggest sunshine blowers possible after Rich Rod's first year.
Now I've been reduced to mildly caring. Thanks for partially killing my interest in Michigan football Carr, Rodriguez, and Hoke. You can probably add Bill Martin and Dave Brandon to that list as well.
and it is level of apathy that took 10 years to create.
It started with Tressel owning Carr, then the Horror, then Martin's "three hour tour," then Toledo, then stretch-gate, then losing in Champagne, then 2010, then "the process," then getting owned by Sparty, then the BW3 bowl, and then...depression set in.
I about puked when I heard Brady say after the spring game, we are still a very young team and have a lot of work to do. What a load of crap!! It's the same garbled up bs constantly, win or get out of dodge. One more chance.
Lose to App State: Hoke better not be allowed to get off the field without getting his pink slip first. That might go for DB too. The program might need to get shut down for the rest of the year if this happens. It'd be a media shitstorm the likes of Michigan fans wouldn't be allowed to forget for another century.
Lose to Notre Dame: ehh that one doesn't seem to matter as much anymore. Despite our consistent mediocrity, the one remaining constant has been the ability to beat Notre Dame. Hoke is 2-1 against them. Unless Hoke gets shellacked by ND this year, I think he's fine if he loses this game.
Hoke needs to show clear, tangible proof that this program is heading in the right direction. I think he needs to beat at least 1 of MSU/OSU, or if he loses to them both, he needs to play them both extremely tough in hard fought, very close games on the road to keep his job. We can't keep getting out coached in a weekly basis, and outmuscled by teams that have clearly inferior talent.
-9 wins or better, including win over MSU and/or OSU, then Hoke is fine.
-8 wins, with no wins over either rival, then they'd better be awfully close games with clear signs of improvement on both sides of the ball.
-Worse than 8 wins, and no wins over rivals, Hoke should probably consider clearing his office.
Consistent 7-8 win seasons might be acceptable at other schools, but I'll be damned if that's deemed acceptable at my school. I know Hoke wants to win, and while I want him to be "the guy," the time has come for put up or shut up. Being a good recruiter and loving Michigan is all fine and dandy, but results are what matters at the end of the day. And we're all tired of the result of annual beatings from OSU and MSU.
they're the burning wreckage I can seem to crawl out from.
Hoke isn't the right personnel manager to lead our employee-athletes.If you look at how often our company firewall was breached last season, you have to even question our IT manager, Mattison.
Hoke should have been let go after last season.
We have a new sales manager, Nussmeier, who is supposed to be able to close a deal, but just let a good potential employee-athlete slip through his hands. So that remains to be seen.
I think if the University of Michigan Professional Football Team doesn't do well this season, Brandon, our CFO (Chief Football Officer) should be forced to retire.
Maybe we should be open to negotiating a better contract with our employee-athletes' union; if their pay and scholarships to obtain their mythical education aren't enough, perhaps some nice perks, such as time and a half for bowl games, increased vacation pay, etc., will help to motivate them.
on EVERYTHING that has killed Amurrica. Drowned it in the GD bathtub. Let's get the f AWAY from business for a minute (looking at YOU, Dave) and play some GD ball!
I just think it's amazing how we went from rows of shark teeth at the beginning of last season to where we're currently at. We were all saying the future is bright last summer and then the season happened. Maybe this year with all the doom and gloom pre season the opposite will happen.
I am stuck watching 2011 M reruns ...coz i cant possibly watch 2013. What happened to this team in 2 years?
Why are these comment sections coming out en masse now-a-days without getting properly nuked? [Honestly, negs should be worth -2, especially if I have to lose a point to perform that function.] These are like the CC threads that were intolerable from late 2010.
We've got enough talent, moreso than any team since 2006 and that was actually not representative of Carr's recruiting efforts toward the end. He had pretty much cashed it in by time he had left. Hell we didn't even have enough to field a two deep defense and were an entire class shy of a full boat. That's sad and should be remembered when remembering Lloyd. Give Brady credit for restoring the talent level, minus a few key positions but it does take time unless you are in the SEC. ^If UM players want their coach, they will play like it and if they put forth the effort the '11 team did, he will stay. However, it is symbiotic in the sense that Brady has to motivate his players to do just that. This is something that he hasn't proven capable of, and his other two stops may have been a matter of just outrecruiting everyone else; moreso than outcoaching anyone. Ability to motivate is the greatest asset any coach can have. Why? Because it can overcome talent deficiency. I watched Bo win with Cannovinos, Dufeks, Mallorys, et. al. Many, outside Don Dufek, were at best 3* players, but they were drilled to military precision and motivated beyond parallel. No team in America under Bo's tutelage made better half-time adjustments than Michigan and it was mostly between the ears. I remember Tex Schram, the Cowboy's GM saying, "Michigan must have the best coaching in the world because the majority of their players just don't have the measureables to play in this league." He produced AAs annually, yet very few during his tenure went on to have great NFL careers and absolutely no qbs. Jim H was actually the first to go and his was at best as described above. ^This is not a bad thing, necessarily. I want Hoke to succeed, just as I have all others before him. But when it comes time to leave, coaches usually signal their own end. I loved Lloyd when he was on top of his game, but when it became apparent- English threatening to leave-that LC had placed friendships and politics over the good of the university, especially coupled with his above stated "leave of absence" it did not take me long to get on the "get into the administration department" train. Loved what he did in '97 and '06, but when it was time to go, it was time to go. ^This is the one glaring question concerning Brady. Obviously the team has not played with motivation the past two years. They've simply kept too many games close that should not have been and experienced too many PSU debacles during this period. Coaches grow too, and I think Brady might realize his shortcomings. It took Carr a few years to settle in, along with a damn fine "quit crying and take control of the program speech" from Bo. We don't have Bo to steer the ship any longer, but maybe someone can step up and do what was done for him. Who knows???
The original question was whether or not the criteria for retaining Hoke has changed since the end of last year. Assuming you mean since the decision to hire Nussmeier the answer is "No the criteria remains unchanged".
If Hoke manages a winning season in 2014 he'll he here in 2015. However, barring truly devastating injuries he'll need to make it to the BTCCG to keep his job. This implies that he beats at least one of and probably both MSU and Ohio.
IMHO the likely outcome of 2014 is 8 or 9 regular season wins and a bowl game win. Again assuming no critical injuries during the season.
In another thread, Justingoblue provided a link to a copy of Hoke's contract.
The 6-year contract expires at the end of the 2016 season. It provides for discussion of a contract extension at the conclusion of the 2015 season. So, unless there is some major cause for termination, Hoke will coach at least through 2015.
The contract provides for bonuses based on four outcomes as follows, with their perceived value:
- Any bowl game (75 points)
- 2nd or 3rd place conference bowl (125 points)
- Conference game championship game appearance (300 points)
- Conference game championship gme wins (500 points)
Up to n ow, I don't see any cause for firing nor do I see any basis for extending his contract. Personally, I think Hoke needs to at least appear in the Big 10 Championship Game in both 2014 and 2015 before an extension would be considered.