Revisiting the 2011 Class by Commit Date

Submitted by alum96 on

It's always amusing to watch the board mood change so quickly - 24 hours ago there was euphoria as 3 commits had dropped within 24 hours... now with some bad news on mostly long shots ennui has returned.  It's all good.  Part of the recruiting game.

The 3 hour recruitment of Colin Samuel had me thinking about how 2011 fell chronologically so I took the time to google term "Hello [Player name] MGoblog" 20 times to see how our 2011 class played out. I didn't follow recruiting that closely back then so those in the know can better clarify which players Hoke "closed"  on that had a lot of legwork done by the RR regime but here is how it played out in terms of timing.

This may give you comfort or make you more worried if you try to parallel to a MUCH smaller class under Harbaugh under similar time constraints.  Plz keep in mind this staff in theory will be much better at actual development before you choose how distressed to be about a recruiting miss.

Key info:

  • 20 total commits
  • Starz per 247 composite = fourteen 3 starz, six 4 starz
  • Six of the 20 commits happened Jan 25, 2011 or later.
  • OSU-UM game Nov 26 (Hayes committed just before)
  • RR fired Jan 6, 2011
  • Hoke hired Jan 12, 2011

3 tiers:

  • RR (8)
  • RR under fire (2)  (post OSU/pre bowl)
  • Hoke (10)
Player * Date  
G. Brown 3 9/9/09 RR
D. Hollowell 3 1/17/10 RR
B. Beyer 4 4/15/10 RR
C. Rock 3 5/28/10 RR
J. Miller 3 6/29/10 RR
K. Jones 4 7/29/10 RR
T. Posada 3 8/11/10 RR
J.Hayes 4 11/23/10 RR
D. Morgan 3 12/13/10 RR under fire
B. Countess 4 12/17/10 RR under fire
T. Carter 3 1/20/11 Hoke
K. Heitzman 3 1/21/11 Hoke
R. Taylor 3 1/22/11 Hoke
M. Wile 3 1/22/11 Hoke
A. Poole 4 1/25/11 Hoke
R. Bellomy 3 1/25/11 Hoke
C. Bryant 4 1/28/11 Hoke
T. Rawls 3 2/1/11 Hoke
F. Clark 3 2/2/11 Hoke
C. Barnett 3 2/2/11 Hoke

 

Key contributors (8 of 20):

  • RR (3)  - Beyer, Miller, Hayes
  • RR under fire (2) - Morgan, Countess
  • Hoke (3) - Taylor, Wile, Clark

Some material production (3 of 20):

  • RR (1) - Hollowell
  • RR under fire (0)
  • Hoke (2) - Heitzman, Rawls

Not much help either due to injury or other reasons (9 of 20):

  • RR (4) - Brown, Rock, Jones, Posada
  • RR under fire (0)
  • Hoke (5) - Carter, Poole, Bellomy, Bryant*, Barnett

 

*if not for injury Bryant would probably have been a key contributor

Tater

January 26th, 2015 at 11:46 PM ^

Do you really think Jim Harbaugh is going to take recruits to fill "open slots?"  Besides, JH is going to prove that he can develop football players even better than JB develops basketball players.  

Have faith.

Mr. Yost

January 27th, 2015 at 7:12 AM ^

Because most coaches do just that..

It's not an odd question at all. And the "have faith" meme doesn't apply when time and time again, including in alum's exercise, you see coaches fill spots.

Look at who Hoke brought in, not only did half not pan out...half never even played at Michigan. And that's Brady Hoke. The guy who recruited well and counted on moral victories with a bunch of nice guys. It's not like he was known for trying to get a bunch of borderline academic risks in. Or a bunch of guys who would have social issues.

Butch Davis is on ESPN every week talking about how he made that mistake and Mack Brown is not too far behind him talking about how he sees it happen every year.

It's a very valid fear...and just because it's HARBAUGH, doesn't mean anything.

I'd be interested to see Saban and Meyer when they took over at Bama and OSU.

Gentleman Squirrels

January 27th, 2015 at 8:38 AM ^

I don't think the same story would apply to Meyer at OSU, just because he had a month longer than most incoming coaches do, which could be used to actually develop a relationship between the player and the coach. Right now, Harbaugh is trying to convince recruits to come to Michigan after knowing them for a week (or less).

WolverineLake

January 27th, 2015 at 8:45 AM ^

  Man... this blew my mind a bit.

JH is going to prove that he can develop football players even better than JB develops basketball players.

  I will buy all the snake oil you are selling, my good man.  Onward!!

dbrhee

January 26th, 2015 at 11:43 PM ^

I am one of those who is adapting to game changers at this junction of the recruiting cycle.. I think the last 2 classes, we were more or less than by Jan (I know a couple we were waiting but didn't pan out our way like McDowell and Hand to name a few)... 

I don't go crazy if people don't commit or not.. I just think it is how people are going to visit and then in hours, not... Why not just confirm FIRST ... Maybe it is the tweeter world of quick and immediate information.. Either case, Hoke was kind of notorious for not closing out at the end of the recruiting cycle (I believe only Norfleet was one of those last minute surprise).. 

alum96

January 26th, 2015 at 11:50 PM ^

Yes and as each year passes we go deeper into the "instant information era".  I think Instagram was just in its infancy in 2011 and Twitter - while popular - was nothing as big as it is today.  Watching every 140 character thought by teenagers retweeted by our trusty recruiting analysts is far more "emotion changing" now then even 4 years ago. 

There is a lot of recency bias out there - and it's exaggerated by the information age when a recruit can plan on visiting and then not all within a 6 hour span.  10 years ago we would have never even heard about some UCLA commit planning to show up here probably until the day he showed up!  Now we see how the sausage is made much more.

And yes we are not used to scrambling since Hoke sewed up his classes so early 2012-2014.  2011 was the last mad scramble and again, there is an explosion of information sources now versus back then.

M-Dog

January 27th, 2015 at 2:24 AM ^

Now we see how the sausage is made much more

This is so true.  20 years ago, you did not know about anything.  You just read some kind of "recruiting roundup"  a few days after everyone was signed.  You did not really know much about where they came from or how they got here.   

RobM_24

January 26th, 2015 at 11:53 PM ^

Wow, there might not be a guy on that list that sticks in the NFL. At one time Countess seemed promising. Frank was showing signs until he was booted. Ray Taylor maybe? It's not a great list.

alum96

January 27th, 2015 at 12:13 AM ^

Clark will get drafted - probably 4th round without any off field issues but now maybe 5th to 7th.  But yes that's about it.  That was the 21st ranked class in the country.

Compare to MSU who had the 31st ranked class (Rivals) with only 1 more player in their class (21):

  • Shalique Calhoun (1st/2nd)
  • Trae Waynes (1st)
  • Connor Cook (1st/2nd)
  • Lawrence Thomas (probably 3rd-5th)
  • Taiwan Jones (mocking 5thish)
  • Jack Allen - All American center -  (probably 3rd-5th)

Also in that class, starting LB Ed Davis, Darien Harris, starting/rotation DTs Joel Heath, Damon Knox and starting/rotation OL Donavan Clark, Fou Fonati.

That's 30% of their 2011 class with real NFL aspirations and another 30% as front line contributors to a top 10 team and a few of those guys will have outside shots at NFL too.

And you can see why the 2 teams paths have diverged....

Mr. Yost

January 27th, 2015 at 7:17 AM ^

He was having/had a very solid year. He would've likely tested well and fell right into that 4th round range.

As of now, 5th to 7th isn't far fetched depending on what comes of his case.

You logic is flawed Jameis Winston, didn't have anything proven, but the negative publicity isn't even going to knock him off the #1 pick in the draft. Last year there was that kid from ND, Schembo?

I'm not saying Clark gets drafted, I really don't give a shit to be honest...I'm just saying I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he does. And if he does, 5th to 7th is likely where he's taken. Low risk/high reward rounds.

RobM_24

January 27th, 2015 at 12:37 AM ^

Agreed. It also seems like we were just grasping at players to fill a class, rather than finding pieces to fit a system or some sort of group identity. That might be why there was so much attrition. Hopefully Harbaugh only takes guys he feels will fit his plan, as opposed to just filling out a predetermined number/ quota. I'd rather be patient and wait another year if necessary.

Miami Maize

January 27th, 2015 at 12:59 AM ^

Totally agree. This was the point I made in another thread. In contrast with the strategic master planning and very specific targeting we're witnessing with this regime, beyond vague notions of "physicality" and "toughness" Hoke's tenure lacked any real idea of how to translate the abstract into real field level execution. And we got worse and worse every year.

93Grad

January 26th, 2015 at 11:54 PM ^

I wouldn't put Rawls in the production category. At least not at Michigan. In any event your analysis is why I have been pessimistic about Jims chances of landing too many impact players so late in the game. It just doesn't happen unless you are Urban Meyer and can recruit for all of December.




Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

alum96

January 27th, 2015 at 12:10 AM ^

I put Rawls there basically on the back of that 1 game vs I believe it was Illinois in 2013.  Realistically he was a guy we played v MAC teams, Hollowell was a guy we put out there in 2014 as the 5th option and often immediately pulled (he was picked on often), and Heitzman was a filler 2013 DE converted to backup 2014 TE. 

I am just trying to be kind and find ways to make this class not look as bad as it is. 

And 2010 might have been worse....

alum96

January 27th, 2015 at 12:21 AM ^

I don't feel its apples to apples

Urban had:

  • A powerhouse program with 1 down year.... vs Hoke/Harbaugh taking over struggling programs down multiple years.  Most teenagers today don't know about an "elite" UM - they hear about it from their dads; they can just watch TV any year to see an elite or near elite OSU the past decade.
  • Is in a state where 95% of kids dream of playing for OSU and a depth of quality to their recruits - you can go 15 deep in Ohio and find players to be potential starters on OSU.  You can't do that in Michigan and right now MSU has a lot of mindshare.  OSU has no such comptition.
  • A month extra to recruit including a window of time before the quiet period began Dec 15th.

He had a very good class and there was no hiccup from a traditional OSU class.

I did look at Bama's first class under Saban because Alabama in 2007 was much more like Michigan in 2011 or 2015 in terms of struggles on the field and while the class was ranked 10th it was due to a lot of players.  The average player rank was 3.23 (UM is currently like 3.3ish).  So it's comparable.

Of course after year 1 of Saban Bama was #1 in recruiting I think every year since.  But Saban's takeover of Bama is a lot more parallel to UM - he came early January to a struggling program overshadowed by others in the conference.

Logan

January 27th, 2015 at 12:39 AM ^

Urban also had the tire fire of all tire fires at PSU in 2012 to poach some 4-5 stars who just wanted to GTFO of Happy Valley. Noah Spence comes to mind, but there were others. Perfect situation for him as PSU to OSU is a pretty easy to sell in that situation.

 

alum96

January 27th, 2015 at 8:18 AM ^

I discussed Saban above - 10th ranked class but lower average player rank tham UM currently has, due to a very large class.  But considering he had to fill that big of a class in January it was a good job even getting a 3.23 or whatever it was.

Franklin is a lot better comparison than Meyer - as Franklin was hired Jan 11th. But unlike Harbaugh he had a coach who was working recruits every day in December (dead period after Dec 15th still allows for phone calls and texting) and early January for PSU before that dude surprised people to go to Texans.  Harbaugh in comparison picked up a dead trail since (a) the Michigan job was empty for a month and (b) even when Hoke was here the trail was dead basically since early October since performance was horrid on field.  Harbaugh had no "hot leads" that Hoke had left him or a bunch of guys he had been recruiting at another college (like Franklin had at Vandy).

The 2014 PSU class was huge at 25 players.  16 of those players committed to PSU before Franklin.  So they didnt have the disaster decommits we did because their coach was actually doing a pretty solid job before he ran to the Texans.  Franklin had 9 spots to fill, not unlike Harbaugh. 

He landed seven 3 stars, and two 4 stars.  Two of those were on 1/12 and 1/14.  Considering Franklin was hired 1/11 they sound like 2 guys he was recruiting for Vanderbilt and immediately flipped to PSU - an advantage Franklin had over Harbaugh as Harbaugh was not recruiting for college at any point these past 4 years.  (I checked - both guys had Vanderbilt offers)  So with the PSU brand it sounds like Franklin landed five 3 stars and 2 four stars posts 1/15/2014.

OL
Middletown, OHMiddletown
6'6"
263
 
3 stars
5.6
1/12/14
OL
Park Ridge, ILMaine South
6'6"
274
 
3 stars
5.5
1/14/14
DB
Atlanta, GALovett
5'10"
180
4.5
3 stars
5.6
1/20/14
 
ATH
Ashburn, VABriar Woods
6'0"
182
4.5
3 stars
5.6
1/20/14
ATH
Sherman Oaks, CANotre Dame
6'2"
207
 
4 stars
5.8
1/25/14
WR
Manalapan, NJManalapan
6'3"
205
 
4 stars
5.8
1/26/14
DB
Tampa, FLGaither
6'1"
185
 
3 stars
5.6
1/30/14
DB
Phenix City, ALCentral
6'1"
181
4.5
3 stars
5.5
2/3/14
ATH
Tuscaloosa, ALTuscaloosa Academy
6'4"
230
4.6
3 stars
5.5
2/5/14

 

wolverine777

January 27th, 2015 at 12:16 AM ^

did anyone see that Twitter post he just did about harbaugh coming to the farms on Wednesday "is he coming by reindeer sleigh.... coach harbaugh will be at the farms on wednesday!!!!!" yeah sound like he's a ucla lock to me lol Debbie downer day on this board. Take a zanax and relax Ohhhh wah wah we lost a fullback recruit to Stanford who's been committed there for a year some dude said he was gonna visit now isn't. THE SKY IS FALLING lol

wolverine777

January 27th, 2015 at 12:36 AM ^

Im prescribing this whole board zanax today I think they need it lol j/k not a Dr. and most on here aren't that crazy, but some need some. For real. Im as hardcore as it gets but for real people. comparing a osu class to ours classless I would never.

wolverine777

January 27th, 2015 at 12:43 AM ^

cont osu have always had good classes. they have the ultimate advantage. ohio is one of the best football states no question. and they have no in-state competitor. they take what they want from ohio then spread their wings. they have no msu to contend with. look at every other power football state that produces talent you will find multiple in-state threats. all osu has to worry about is other schools invading. this is why how mich recruits is much harder than them. and more impressive

Scarlatina

January 27th, 2015 at 12:58 AM ^

Honestly, until recently when OSU hired Kerry Coombs (former Colerain High School in Cincinnati HC), OSU did not have much success recruiting the southern/Cincinnati region of Ohio. There are a lot of powerhouse high school teams down there: St. X, Moeller, Colerain, Elder and etc...

Scarlatina

January 27th, 2015 at 1:53 AM ^

Urban was born and raised in Toledo, OH, but he did play his college ball as a DB for the Cincinnati Bearcats.

Meyer's first coaching gig was also in Cincinnati as an "intern" secondary coach for St. X High School, but he was only there for a year before going to Ohio State as a graduate assistant for Earle Bruce.

chatster

January 27th, 2015 at 1:16 AM ^

Has Jim Harbaugh said that he'll bank scholarships for 2016 if he can't get anyone else whom he wants for 2015?
 
If Iman Marshall. Chris Clark, Tyrone Wheatley, Jr. and Roquan Smith all are going elsewhere, and Mike Weber sticks with Ohio State, will nine scholarship players be it for Michigan’s recruiting class of 2015? 
 
Among the other prospects being pursued are there any who have a realistic chance of signing with Michigan at the last minute? CB Damon Arnette? DE Shelton Johnson? DE/TE Jake Pickard? TE Matt Snyder? CB Chris Williamson? And are any of them worth taking, even if they might not be expected to contribute for at least three years?
 
Whatever happened to that “silent commit?” (I know.  He's not talking, right?)

alum96

January 27th, 2015 at 1:44 AM ^

Yes you fill the class, its a tiny class.  You don't bank scholarships almost ever and certainly not in a class under 20.  Maybe in 2017 when you have 27 scholarships or whatever you bank 1-2.

As for not contributing for 3 years based on starz that is not good thinking.  No one thought anything of Willie Henry - major contributor by year 2.   Jake Ryan, major contributor before 3 years, Frank Clark etc.  No judgement on any of these guys until they show up and get some college level coaching and see what they have.

Pickard had Syracuse in house Monday and Wisconsin I think Tuesday so we should know by mid week.  Snyder likewise is basically deciding between UM and NEB.  I would be shocked if either of those lasted past this Thursday.

My remaining board is like this.

  1. Chris Clark OR non Clark TE (Matt Snyder?)
  2. RB Mike Weber OR RB/ATH John Kelly Jake Pickard DE
  3. CB Damon Arnette
  4. (Committed) OL Nolan Ulizio
  5. (Committed) DE/OLB hybrid Reuben Jones
  6. (Committed) QB Zach Gentry
  7.  A second CB - too foggy to tell but not likely Marshall; Lockett/Adams/Bush most likely
  8. (if room) FB Reagan Williams IDK at this point
  9. (if room) RB Mike Weber/ATH John Kelly  - edit: Zach Gentry (?) TE/DE Ty Wheatley Jr?  LB Roquan Smith?

alum96

January 27th, 2015 at 8:04 AM ^

I think the class sizes are currently so out of whack there is no way he banks any spot in 2015 unless the staff literally cannot find one player in America they think they can work with.

Let's say this class is supposed to be 13 players and they bank 2 because they can't find a player.  Then your 2015 class is 11 and your 2017 class is 26 minimum (and will most likely be higher due to attrition by the time we get there).  That causes the donut holes we have in the roster like we saw in the OL in the past and now face in the DE, and potentially S down the road.  You want your players distributed nicely across classes - a RS JR followed by a RS SO or a SO.  A RS SO followed by a RS FR or a FR.

We have had areas where we have SRs followed by RS FR and none of the players in the middle, due to this wacky distribution of scholarships.

For comparison OSU has recruited something like 24/24/25 the past 3 classes.  We are on a path right now for 13/16/26+. Again it won't turn out that way due to attrition but we need some more balance among the classes and banking scholarships in our smallest class in years doesn't seem sensible.

There is still a need for guys who can fit on a 2 deep, and there are a lot of 3 stars who you can redshirt and make contributors their RS SO-RS SR seasons.  This is the type of staff who should be able to do that.

EGD

January 27th, 2015 at 10:12 AM ^

No matter how small a class size gets, M can pretty much always count on having enough spots for the elite talent it is recruiting in any given year. That's why I generally think it's a bad idea to bank scholarships. The spots you'd be banking would go to role-player types, and with role-players you want them to have as much experience as possible. I did a diary on this issue a couple years ago: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/ipcs-and-football-scholarships

alum96

January 27th, 2015 at 7:52 AM ^

I put if room for situations like Justice Hayes that no one knew about, but the coaches.

We had 9 openings post Bosch, Ferns along with the 6 commited = 15 spots.  3 of those spots were for Glasgow bros and Kerridge.  Leaving 12 spots.  So 6 for Harbaugh to fill.  Then Hayes was announced so he now has 7 to fill.  13 spots total.

If there are other Justice Hayes happenning but not announced there is more room.  I don't know - no one does.  If Harbaugh is open to grayshirting there are more spots to fill.  I don't know - no one does.  If he wants to take a chance and "oversign" temporarily thinking some kids will drop out post spring, there is more room.  I don't know - no one does.

That is why there is (if room) slots.

alum96

January 27th, 2015 at 7:54 AM ^

Oh most definitely.  My list is more of possibilities that seem most likely.  Pickard and Arnette are more likely as best we can tell so I included them in the now 7 obvious slots.  Wheatley or Weber or Smith have way more fog around them so hence why lower on the list.  If they want in, they will be in.