Revisit Aug 30 Season Prediction Thread Posts

So factoring in one additional loss at least for Denard's injury, it looks like people were pretty spot on.

And by the way, what was snarling wolverine smoking?

You could factor in a number of items to say that people were spot on... You go down that track you could pro forma the season to 12-0.

We also really underrated ND.

If anything, this year is a good reminder of how much luck and randomness is involved in a college football season.  OSU and ND seemed to have every break fall their way.  Same with the Nebraska.  Michigan?  Not so much.

I waaayyyyy overrated MSU. BOOOOO, me. At the time I was sure they were headed to the Rose Bowl. 

would be so shitty though. ND, Nebraska and Ohio were easily winnable. That's what is so frustrating.

Notre Dame - Denard's worst game ever

Nebraska - the great Bellomy experiment

Ohio- Borges decides to call plays with his head up his butt

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go punt my neighbor's cat.

Given the schedule I thought we would go 8-4 during the regular season.  Tough to win @ ND, NE and Columbus all in one year.  Eventually Hoke will build the talent level of this team to the point where we will start winning these tough road games. Though it may take a few more years. But if he keeps recruiting like he is we will have a very good team. Now I would like to see us snag some more 5 star skilled WR and RB's!

How did people get to 15-0?  12 game regular season + B1G championship + Bowl Game + ___?

.... were nearly wins, but neglect the fact that the MSU game was closer to a loss than any of those were to wins. On top of that, Northwestern was another loss without an incredibly improbable catch by Roundtree.  We are at least as close to 6-6 as we are to 10-2 or 11-1, if not closer.

it doesn't make the losses to Bama, ND, NEB, and OSU any more bearable. I agree with grozzy—we're closer to 6-6 than we were to 10-2. Which makes it difficult to prevent the small slivers of doubt from creeping in, however irrational they might be.

It is interesting to revisit these predictions now if for nothing else to see what we thought based on essentially no data back in August. Thanks for sharing these figures, of course, OP.

One interesting feature of this data, I believe, lies in the subset of people who simply predicted the regualr season score(i.e., their prediction equalled 12) - those people averaged a prediction of 9-3 with a standard deviation of 1 game in either column. It doesn't mean much really, except maybe that when people disregarded the bowl for purposes of their prediction or did not use the default perfect season, they weren't far off the mark this year. It lends credence to the idea that subsets of the fanbase, such as MGoBlog regulars, have a good grasp of their team overall, even if we might be disappointed emotionally with 8-4.

I remember the media saying that we'd be a better team but our record would be worse because of our schedule.  Well, they got it half right.

I was pretty accurate.  I knew the schedule is brutal.  I thought we would be 8-4 at this point but that it would be good enough to go to the Big 10 championship game.  I had a bad feeling about Alabama and Notre Dame.  I still feel good about the program and think it is heading the right direction

Let's face the facts, this has turned into a horrible year. Not just based on the fact of Michigan's mediocre record, but the 2 teams that we hate the most are undefeated. That's just rubbing salt in the wound. Thank God for Ohio's sanctions or I would have to be on suicide watch right now haha

Is stupid, but is my new favorite ID.



Don't forget, UM will likely play aTm in the bowl game, so we will likely get to do this again.

My fear is that we don't think big. If our goal is to win the Big Ten Championship, we're talking beating the likes of Indiana, Purdue and Illinois and oh yeah, we have to get past Ohio State, whose goal is to win the National Championship. Different mindsets. And I don't know if our "Win the Big Ten" mindset and all that comes with it can take on a national stage mindset. Recruiting a great defense is imperative, but let's not forget we need the Charles Woodsons, too.  (the big playmakers who change a game)

Good stuff.  The season basically played out the way most expected - Alabama was a legit loss to most, ND and OSU were close games on the road, and Nebraska was the only real surprise-ish, but winning on the road in Lincoln even with Denard would have been tough.  As many noted, this year's record was probably going to be worse even if the team was better than last, and 8-4 with a bowl game looks about right.

The Defense played well enough to win every game except Alabama.  I don't think anyone was expecting the Offense to have so much difficulty scoring points. Except for FGs, the special teams were a liability this year, too. Most of us worried about the D-line without Martin and RVB, but there wasn't as much as a fall off as expected.  The real problem was the O-line and the receivers. 

But I would have rather been wrong on the record at 9-3, than right and lose to the Cheaters.



I can't believe the team going to the Championship game is a team that Denard had his worse game of the year against ( 4 atrocious picks) and we still were in a position to win that game at the end.

I also predicted every single defeat as well. This season went almost exactly like I thought it would--save for Denard's injury.