Revisit Aug 30 Season Prediction Thread Posts

the schedule was absolutley brutal this year- I don't care how down the conference is. we all knew several things going into this year:

1) road games @ NU, OSU, ND, Bama in Dallas to start

2) We had Denard at QB and a tire fire beyond him (with the move of Gardner to WR), and Denard isn't exactly used sparringly in the run game (point here is you have to expect him to miss some time).

3) We were REALLY thin in the OL

4) DL was a big ? going into the season. NO depth and NO pass rushers on the DL

5) The WRs are lacking a bit of talent/speed

6) we are 2 years removed from the RR era of down recruiting and S'ship numbers.

of course, #6 is related to #2-5.

2011 was an amazing success and the D has turned around greatly. But the program isn't curently at a level where we can take all these points and expect 10-11 out of 12 wins. There just isn't a lot of talent on the field right now, beyond Denard & Devin & Lewan. Schofield is a  very good player. Defense has a couple good young LBers and Jake Ryan will be a star the next 2 years. The DL stepped up, but still aren't at a talent level where M has been in the past.

I never understood the 10-11 win predictions. Too many homer picks there and too much optimism to start the season. AFA this post goes, i think the biggest point to be made is the shape of the bell curve. the median/mean don't tell as much as the shape of the distribution. there were maybe 2-3 people predicting LESS than 8-4. more people picked greater than 8 wins than picked 8 wins exactly.

I also LOVE the 8-4 unacceptable crowd coming back out of the woods after a long hiatus. For all the reasons I pointed out above, this isn't a 90's-2007 8-4 M team. this team is at a much different talent level than even 2007 which I think was amazingly top heavy in talent and very undertalented over all with Henne, Hart, Long, Manningham, Graham and not a lot beyond that.

also also, love the people who think we were *this* close to 9-10 wins (even 11!!!!) but fail to recognise THE MOTHERFUCKING NORTHWESTERN GAME, let alone MICHIGAN STATE. cognitive dissonance at it's finest.

this is an 8-4 team. it is EXACTLY the record we deserve to have based on talent, depth, experience, injuries and the home/road schedule.

if you're just as close to 6-6 as you are to 10-2, then 8-4 is right where you should be.

I guess the question is, what can we reasonably expect? I think we should reasonably expect the team to improve over the course of the season. That's what's hard to stomach about Notre Dame and Ohio State. Both those teams improved over the season. The Notre Dame I saw last night was not the same team we played. And while I think Urban  Meyer must have been high when he said yesterday that his team could play with any team in the country, they definitely improved over the course of the season. Why didn't we do that? Why did Denard not get better? Why did our offensive line not get better? Why did our running backs not get any better and in some cases, got worse? These are legitimate questions. And for all the talk of this being a good season considering the schedule, we still should have seen improvement. 

for the season until now.............I am torn between 9 - 3 and 8 - 4..............still not quite sure - I will get back to you

I did not see the loss to Nebraska coming. I expected a win against MSU this year. I think what surprised me the most was the OSU game. That was seriously winnable and probably should have been won. We'll probably see all the plays in the bowl game that we should have seen in the second half against OSU.

It'll be a few weeks before I get over that game.

I don't know if this is fair.  Fans are going to be homers.  I personally don't like to ever predict a loss.  Given how the year actually turned out, with Alabama/ND/Neb/OSU all winning 10+ games, I don't think our season was too surprising.

My preseason prediction:

Best case: 10-2
Worst case: 7-5
Expected: 8-4

I was right on target, and correctly pegged our losses -- 'Bama, ND, Nebraska, and OSU.  The worst case scenario would've resulted from a loss to those and one of Iowa/Illinois (thought they'd be decent this year)/Northwestern.

About our offense:

I jumped on the fire Borges bus, but have walked away from the ledge.  His playcalling is baffling at times, but I have to remember that he doesn't have the players he wants for his system yet.  I was a huge Rich Rod supporter, even throughout the darkness, for that very same reason.  It would be hypocritical to call for Borges' head because his offense under-achieved with players he didn't recruit.  Also, we played two teams likely in the NCG and probably Big Ten champion Nebraska and undefeated Ohio State.  It's not as if our schedule was a cakewalk.

Next year will be a huge barometer year in terms of our offense, IMO.  So, Borges gets that.