So I compiled the data and the results are in.
We had 79 total votes. Here are the averages at various points in the compilation process:
@20 votes the general outlook was gloomy, with a 42.0% chance of Michigan victory.
@40 votes it remained about the same, with a 42.2% chance of victory.
@55 votes we saw a huge push from the more optimistic fans, raising the average to 46.3% chance of victory.
@75 votes the trend continued to rise, raising the average to 46.8% chance of victory. (And I went to bed)
Four more votes were cast in the late night, bringing the average up a large jump to 48.8% chance of victory.
So interesting results there. It would seem that the fans here generally feel Michigan has a solid chance at victory this weekend, but overall less than 50/50. This makes sense since it is a road game. It is also wildly optimistic IME.
The really interesting part is how the voting trended over the course of the evening. Started at 9pm with several pessimistic views (including my own which may have swayed the votes?) outnumbering the optimists. Then as the night went on, the fans here seemed to just grow more and more confident in their team. Especially amazing was the 2pt jump with just 4 votes cast in the late night. This trend held for the other two polls as well...
Del St (removed 3 obvious outliers):
36 Total Votes
@11 votes: 96.9% Chance of Victory (COV)
@28 votes: 97.6% COV
@36 votes: 97.8% (Includes late night)
A smaller sample size but with the tighter distribution the trend is just as pronounced.
12 Total Votes
@10 votes: 42.2% COV
@12 votes: 44.3% COV (Includes late night)
Again, a sample size now approaching not useful but the trend is still there, at least possibly.
So why does our overall outlook of this team rise with the passing of the evening? Or perhaps we just feel better about the team's progress after healthy discussion? Maybe it is just the booze talking? What do you all think? Maybe just a statistical hiccup?