The rest of the Schedule
Here are just some thoughts on the remainder of the schedule. The good thing is that I think the up-coming opponents gradually get better, giving us a chance to get two big ten warm ups before Sparty.
Minnesota: Michigan by 4 TDs, Minny is not a very good football team with not a lot of scary weapons. M has played better and better with each game and good momentum will carry on into the BIG opener.
@NW: a road test, but again I don’t think they are playing very good football. If Michigan can play solidly, I think they win by 17-21 points.
@MSU: The first of several games that could go either way. It depends on if MSU can contain Denard, which they did pretty well last year (Denard also threw 3 picks last year). But I think Hoke and Co. will be VERY well prepared for this game, so it will be close and very winnable. TOSS UP.
Purdue: M by 21-24 or more.
@Iowa: Another game that could go either way. Iowa hasn’t gelled yet with their new personnel but neither have we. M could win this game if Iowa doesn’t improve. Side note – Iowa is 8th in the BIG power rankings, Ritt and Bennett don’t put a lot of stock in them-yet. TOSS UP.
@Illinois: so many good things for Illinois happening, then they EEEK one out against Western at home? I still think this will be the best team we play to date and it will be a tougher game than most. TOSS UP.
Nebraska: We will need to play our best game of the year to win this game, and it is possible. TOSS UP.
TSIO: As we all know, the momentum has shifted for the teams playing in The Game. M is improving and tsio has been declining over recent weeks. We are starting to see how good both teams are. A few weeks ago just about all of us would predict an L, but maybe not? Again, I think M will be VERY well prepared for this game. TOSS UP.
BOWL: last year we were sent to a bigger bowl than we deserved IMO because Denard sells tickets and we were trounced by superior competition. If the same happens, an L could be in store.
If we have a good year, it feasible to win 9 or dare I say 10 games? If we don’t get up for the TOSS UP games, we could be in store for another 7-6 year.
Discuss.
EDIT: BIG Championship: I think we would all be a bit surprised if Wiscy isnt there this year. If Michigan plays as well as we hope, it will all come down to the Nebraska game. If we beat Nebraska, I (and most people) fear Wisc. I think they are a legit top 4 team and can make a run at the NC. LOSS
September 27th, 2011 at 12:20 PM ^
Cool. Thanks.
September 27th, 2011 at 12:22 PM ^
thread. Come on..
September 27th, 2011 at 12:27 PM ^
Bottom line Hoke and Co. need to take things one game at a time. We cannot stumble against teams that we should be beating easily, like in years past. Continue to work in the new schemes slowly and play to the team's strengths.
September 27th, 2011 at 12:27 PM ^
Improvement each week by the defense has been encouraging. If that continues along with improvement in our passing game, 2 or 3 wins in the toss up games should be very attainable.
September 27th, 2011 at 12:29 PM ^
Well thoughtout!
Stay thirsty, my friends!
September 27th, 2011 at 12:29 PM ^
So the rest of the games this season are either three score wins or toss ups?
I'll go:
Minny: Should Win
Northwestern: Lean Win
MSU: Lean Loss
Purdue: Should Win
Iowa: Toss Up
Illinois: Toss Up
Nebraska: Should Lose
Ohio State: Lean Lose
So if we win all the winnable games, that's at least a 7-5 season. Pull off both of the toss ups and it's 9-3. Pull off a big upset and we're in contention for the B10 Championship Game.
I'll guess 8-4, hopefully with a good matchup in the bowl game. I'll take a nine win season in Hoke's first year for sure.
September 27th, 2011 at 12:37 PM ^
Based on the schedule I was thinking that 8 to 9 wins was about right. I don't know that there is anyone on our schedule that we should lose to, Nebraska hasn't played in the B10 yet and it should be interested to see how they do.
Having Denard on our team gives us a chance in ANY game as long as our defense continues to improve as other posters have said. It is going to be key to get him more comfortable throwing the ball, if he can do that then we can hang with about every team we play this year.
September 27th, 2011 at 12:31 PM ^
You didn't predict how we'll do in Indy...
September 27th, 2011 at 12:32 PM ^
Agreed on Iowa and Illinois. Iowa is similar to ND that if they can get themselves going, they could be dangerous. However, Illinois is who I'm much more worried about. Their Run D has been impressive so far, and their Offense is running on all cylinders. If they can beat NW convincingly next week, I'll be sold on them.
September 27th, 2011 at 12:57 PM ^
are not even close to similar? nd is full of 4 and 5 star players and Iowa is typically 3 and 4 star players. If nd played Iowa for 20 straight years, nd would win 19 of them. The difference is that it is a B1G conference game which tend to go closer than simply the talent. But this year I think U of M holds the advantage.
Iowa is still Iowa from years gone by ... no new schemes, just some minor adjustments. Michigan is totally different than Iowa has faced in the past ... certainly defensively, and by November I think the offense will be even more efficient. I personally mark this game as a W.
Go Blue!
September 27th, 2011 at 1:07 PM ^
Player rankings don't matter. Iowa has 34 wins over the past 4 years, compared to ND's 24 wins. Wisconsin typically pulls in numerous 2 and 3 star players, and turns them into NFL prospects. The difference is, ND hasn't had the coaching to win consistently since Lou Holtz was the coach.
Besides, Iowa hasn't played ND since 1968. I have no idea how these teams would fair against each other in the 21st century.
September 27th, 2011 at 1:22 PM ^
Was this post supposed to be about Purdue? ND would win 19 of 20 over Iowa? That's just crazy.
Iowa has had good, fundamentally sound teams with superior line play on both sides since Ferentz got his program in order. That's a recipe to consistently beat the lead paint eating squads that ND has had for the past 10 years more times than not.
Let's just go over this since Ferentz's third year, when Iowa recovered from the end of the Fry years. Iowa would have likely won every game during the Willingham years (02-04) during which time Iowa finished 8th in both polls every single year. They likely lose in Weis's first two years, but then beat them the last three ('07 goes without saying, and Iowa finished 20th and 7th in the final polls in '08 and '09, while ND was unranked with 7-6 and 6-6 squads). Last year and this year would have been a toss up.
That's worst case scenario 6-4, best case 8-2.
September 27th, 2011 at 1:06 PM ^
All-American's avatar is a photo taken from Canada.
September 27th, 2011 at 12:35 PM ^
who this team is yet. Unfortunately, this week won't help. The Sparty game will be the best defining game to that point. NW will be a good test for the road opener. I think Sparty is definitely beatable as is Iowa and Illinois can be beaten.
We will find out Saturday night who Nebraska is and OSU will show it's true colors next week when they get drilled by Nebraska.
I agree with the power rankings of the conference for the most part, but too many teams have played too many baby seals to be defined yet. Let's re-visit this in two weeks.
September 27th, 2011 at 12:50 PM ^
I agree with this, and I think a lot of teams are still trying to figure themselves out. OSU has a great defense, and if Braxton Miller (or Bauserman, I suppose) is able to be even just average, they are a good team.
I think Northwestern will be the first game that will give us a better idea of what kind of team we are. They are a team with lots of potential, and with Persa at QB, we would be naive to think we will just walk all over them. I don't know how much of an advantage playing at home will give them since it's NW and I've heard M always travels well to games there, but it will be good for our guys to go into an unfamiliar environment and see how they come out. I'm nervous for this game.
Also, I think the OP has confused a winnable game with a toss up. There is a difference. I don't think we'll beat either Nebraska or OSU this year, but they are certainly winnable games, since both teams have weaknesses. I would agree that Illinois is a toss up because, up to this point, I don't think either team has really shown that it's better than the other.
September 27th, 2011 at 12:39 PM ^
Northwestern will be tough. They'll have Persa back, and isn't Ryan field natural grass? For some reason Michigan struggles there. And it's the first road test.
September 27th, 2011 at 12:49 PM ^
NW lost to Army 2 weeks ago.
Army is terrible.
Army lost to two Previously-Hoke-Led teams - Balls Tate and SDSU.
If Hoke teams beat Army and Army beats NW,
Michigan should beat NW.
Not really, but interesting to think about.
September 27th, 2011 at 1:35 PM ^
but I upvote for "Balls Tate"
September 27th, 2011 at 12:59 PM ^
Yes, Persa should be back this weekend. With that said that will give him one week to get game prepared for us. Persa has shown incredible pose against us, and NW always plays us tough especially there.
September 27th, 2011 at 12:40 PM ^
We're going to kick Ohio State's ass.
September 27th, 2011 at 12:49 PM ^
Really? Awesome, I'll be sure to watch!
September 27th, 2011 at 12:50 PM ^
that gives us a chance against anyone. With the defense seemingly finding its way, we are looking more competitive every week. I still want to see Michigan against a stronger defensive team to gauge where the offense truly is. The second half of last season was very sobering as the better teams in the B1G pretty much controlled the outcome of those games as the bowl game...well we just won't go there.
The best part is, the defense is getting better every week and backups are filling holes where needed. Like everyone else, I want to see a more consistent passing game and a running game that doesn't rely on Denard as much.
September 27th, 2011 at 12:57 PM ^
We beat them last year with our worst D ever. We have basically everyone back while Illinois lost their best two players, one from each side of the ball. I guarantee they won't score two TDs on totally uncovered wheel routes. Win!
Minny- Easy win
Northwestern- Persa can't make that big of a difference and this team lost to Army. Win.
MSU- Toss up
Purdue- Easy win
Illinois- See above
Iowa- Not a very good team right now. Lost a lot and we did not. They do always play us tough at Kinnick. Slight lean win could be toss up depending on how Iowa comes together.
Nebraska- I'll stick my neck out here. Nebraska has been less than impressive this year and IMHO the Cornhuskers will be beat up by the time we play them as their schedule is murder. If Martinez goes down they will be in a world of hurt as Cody Green transferred and Bubba Starling signed with the Royals. Toss up to slight lean to win depending on Nebraska's health. If Martinez is hurt- win.
Ohio- ???. I have no idea if Ohio will come together or fall apart. Way to early to call this one so I'll say toss up.
I was expecting a nine win season to start the year meaning we won one of the big 4 games. I'll lean to 10 with the hopes the D keeps improving and Borges continues to develop an understanding of what is best suited for Denard offensively. Part of this outlook is the Big 10 appearing to be way down this year.
September 27th, 2011 at 1:01 PM ^
I can honestly see this Michigan team, with the way they have been improving and some cards falling the right way be 10-0 going up against the Cornhuskers. Is it going to happen? No, 99% sure it won't. Here is my reasoning:
Minny: Just a rough year for them and a bad team.
NW: Dan Persa is one man and I don't think they have the skill to beat us (if this was last year I would say we lose with Persa shredding us)
MSU: A VERY banged up offensive line, we could get the kind of pressure ND did against them and could cause huge fits for Kirk Cousins.
Purdue: Not a horrible team, but not a good defensive team and won't be able to stop the run game. We will play better than last year against them.
Iowa: I think this will be our toughest game to date. Vandenberg(or is it two 'a's?) has a lot of skill I think and Coker is a good running back. Tough road game, but it could happen.
Illinois: As someone stated, "there offense is running on all cylinders", I beg to differ. A team that only puts up 23 on WMU, 17 against ASU, does not seem like a team running on all cylinders. However, their defense will keep them in this game. We have had Illinois number for many years (except for the RR years minus last year).
Nebraska: At this point the team could be 10-0. Their offense is dynamic and we know how good their defense can be. Is winning this game out of question? No, I don't think so but like someone else said, we will HAVE to play our best football to pull it out.
TSIO: This game just after Hoke was hired, looked like another loss. This year, with everything unfolding and the terrible passing game they bring to the table (not that ours has been much better), makes this a much closer game.
B1G Champ Game: If we make it here, we will most likely face a very very very good Wisky team. I think we take this as a loss against them.
Like I said, it will take some improvements for the whole team, and I probably come off as too optimistic especially after how the last 2 years (starting 4-0) have turned out, but I can see it happening (as unlikely as it may be).
Just another thing for you guys to talk about. Again, I think it could, but doubt it will.
September 27th, 2011 at 1:06 PM ^
I'm curious as to why more folks don't think we can beat MSU. True, their defense is average to above average this year, and their offensive skill players are very good, but their O-line is a smoking crater with inexperienced young players, JUCO dudes, recently D-linemen, signicant injuries etc.
I was watching our D-line tear through SDSU's O-line on Saturday and imagining Kirk Cousins launching prayers off his back foot into our improving secondary...
Here's hoping.
September 27th, 2011 at 1:35 PM ^
Dantonio has been scheduling MSU's off week to be the week before the Michigan game. They have it again this year, so they have 2 weeks to prepare for us, I am actually really nervous about this game, I don't want to lose another to MSU.
September 27th, 2011 at 1:56 PM ^
I'm with you on the nervousness and not wanting to drop a (gulp) fourth in a row to the Spartans. But I'm not sure the preceding bye week is always the best thing. It seems that sometimes teams come out rusty or slow from a bye week. And I still think that an extra week of prep doesn't allow them to pull 3 or 4 decent O-linemen out of thin air.
September 27th, 2011 at 1:36 PM ^
I don't know why but I just have a feeling Hoke is going to beat Ohio. I think Nebraska can be very beatable at home but I'll chalk them up as a loss. So I think it comes down to 3 games, @MSU, @Iowa, and @Illinois to determine if we're anywhere from 8-4 to 11-1. I think 9 or 10 wins is a very likely scenario.
September 27th, 2011 at 1:56 PM ^
and let me tell you why:
I think Hoke has changed the tide on the rivalry. Hell people in Ohio are starting to believe him. Never in a million years I would have thought that. Selling Michigan jerseys is a good start.
September 27th, 2011 at 2:03 PM ^
I had us at 8-4 with a loss to ND preseason. The Big Ten is worse than I predicted. I expect us to lose to Nebraska, and two of Iowa, MSU, OSU, Illinois, but I can't figure out which.
September 27th, 2011 at 3:16 PM ^
I believe we will beat MSU this year. The reason will be our DL vs. their OL, more than Denard. Our offense will do ok, but our defense will win this game. Denard can't do it alone.
I believe we will beat MN, NW, Purdue.
I believe we will win one of Iowa / Illinois.
I believe we will lose to Nebraska.
And we will win vs. OSU.
Hoke is focusing on MSU & OSU much, much more than has happened for some time. It isn't that Iowa, Illinois, & Nebraska don't matter, but much like Bo, there is an all out intense focus on the two rivalry games. Playing both games in AA, and focusing on them, and this being the senior's last chance, for a host of reasons, I believe we will win.
So, we have the remaining:
- MN: win
- NW: win
- MSU: win
- PU: win
- IA: win/loss
- IL: loss/win
- NE: loss
- OSU win
Record of 10 - 2, go to decent bowl game.
I believe that we will probably win in a bowl game, because of Borges and Mattison.
Final record: 11 - 2, finish in top 10 nationally.
Caveats:
- Who knows what will happen with injuries, either to us, or to other Big 10 teams. We are too thin, especially on the DL, but also on the OL. If we are lucky, both will stay healthy. We also are way too dependent on Denard, and can't afford for him to go down. Conversely, if Taylor Martinez goes down, or Braxton, etc., this could have a huge impact on Nebraska & Ohio.
- It really seems that especially with Mattison, and also with Borges, that our team is continuing to be coached and to develop throughout the season. If they continue to improve, especially on special teams, but also: with route running, with the option, with LB play, with BWC, with the rest of the DL, well, Michigan could make progress, where other teams regress.
- Luck. While we played to win against ND, there was a certain amount of luck involved with the jump balls. We just don't know who will be lucky this year. Brian always talks about this, and how with turnovers, and other things, some teams just have all the luck. MSU & Iowa have been recent recipients of gifts from lady luck. With Denard, and receivers, and jump balls, and turnovers, I truly believe that right now, every game is winnable.
- However, even if lady luck shines on Michigan, I just don't see (now) how Michigan could beat Wisconsin, or, for that matter, LSU, or Alabama. I am living on koolaid, but to believe we can beat those teams requires a hallucinogen of a different strength.
September 27th, 2011 at 4:07 PM ^
It doesnt matter what you think ...can you smell what the Rock is cookin ?
September 27th, 2011 at 7:44 PM ^
I honestly only care about beating MSU and OSU. It's been too long. I don't think we can beat Nebraska yet, and Iowa and Illinois are toss up games. I will be completely happy with 9-3 if we beat MSU and OSU.